GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I predict that by Monday morning we will still be scratching our heads and wondering if and when this hurricane will come ashore. IT seems that there is a religious group that has formed a laying on of hands and are trying to heal the hole in the hurricane, known as an eye by scientists. IF this marvelous feat of healing occurs, the models will be confounded and the Gulf of Mexico may become St Gulf of Mexico, however, until this unfolds, my guess will remain between Ft Myers and Sarasota with an exit out of Vero Beach and then a dash up the east coast. Crossin Florida at high one or 2 Cat.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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DJINFLA
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Just for the fun of it (meaning absolutely no reasoning applied) I'll say in just south of Naples and out near Lake Worth.
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Posts: 152
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
I am a survivor from Biloxi, Mississippi. I have major roof and interior damage, but I still have 4 walls enclosing a slab...which makes me EXTREMLY BLESSED! Those of you in Florida are also veterans of many a hurricane! Has any one of you ever seen a storm take such a sharp turn to the right? I have seen them wobble, do loops, and stall and tease their victims. But I have never seen any storm make such a drastic change in direction!'
You bet we did, Hurricane Jeanne last year made a full 360deg. loop before making landfall in Florida. Also, as I recall, many years ago a hurricane made a full loop before hitting Mississippi or is my recollection wrong?
Also, while did not do a full loop, he took many by surprize (at least those who focused on the narrow prediction path rather than the probability cone which the had *accurately* generated)
Hang in there and keep up hope. God bless you!
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UKCloudgazer
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 21
Loc: Wallasey
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Very, very cautiously, here is my prediction.
On the whole, appears to be gaining strength again, although top left quadrant feeling the effect of land shear etc a little - if she just scrapes the tip of the Yucatan she may gain a more strength - enough to shove her a way up through the trough as it shifts her sideways. It's all guess work really, as there are so many variables to come yet - strength of shear / collapse of power / speed of /landfall in Yucatan reducing strength etc, but I would say higher up Florida rather than lower - Sarasota way??? even Tampa???, but with a reduced strength (2 or perhaps 3 at the most.). Hard to pinpoint a particular place so far forward - remeber started out being predicted as Houston and ended up at Beaumont.
I am taking the models with a pinch of salt. At present I would go with , it worked with and , but I'll see what they come up with on the next model. They all appear to latch onto different elements and build a model from their own favourite- some of which have been BIZARRE!!!. Have felt rather embarrassed by UKMet - they didn't appear to notice it was ever a 5. I assume that there has not been anough data re 4s and 5s in the past to build good models from. Hope for your sakes that it stays that way...
Wherever it ends up, still terrible for those going through it. We experienced the Great English Hurricane of 87 which was a mere baby compared to what you folk experience...
My thoughts are with the people on the island right now with the eyewall upon them at any second. Good luck to all, and here's hoping will dissipate!!!
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Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
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Yes. ELENA in 1985. Came up the Gulf and made a 90 degree turn, then stalled for a few days.
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Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
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In September 1950 EASY came up the Gulf, stalled 50 miles offshore from Tampa with winds of 72 mph. It suddenly blossomed to 125 mph. EASY then headed for Tampa, turned North, hit Cedar Key, turned around and came back South to Homosassa, toured Central Florida, and went North to Georgia. Twenty-four inch raingauges overflowed at Cedar Key and the total rainfall was almost 26 inches.
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peterporcupine
Unregistered
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How unhelpful can you get? Please consider the Forum Rules, nary a one on this thread meets the requirements of the rules.
"Flhurricane is fairly leniant with discussion, but please use common sense when posting. We try to be as fair as possible, but are also trying to keep the quality of the site relatively high."
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Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
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Here we go with the Net Nannies! Where's the door?
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hurricane chic
Unregistered
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Out at Sarasota????< look at a map, no es possible
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wojo
Unregistered
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I agree Sarasota exit the cape but I think it will then turn back twords the coast and impact upper chespeake and head inland north west from point of impact as a weak tropical storm.
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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
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Uh, excuse me peterporcupine, but.....
Do you actually think the mods would be directing folks to this thread if there was a problem with it?
This is thread is where we vent a little, make fun of ourselves a little, get it off our chest a little and chill out a little.
It ain't meant to be all that serious!
Best regards and hope you remain safe.
ed
Edited by Ed G (Fri Oct 21 2005 12:21 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Somewhere south of Naples.. round about Everglades City..across Burns Lake and out around Pompano.
Staying conservative with a high Cat 2.. borderline Cat 3
Flooding will be crazy around the many keys, islands down there..and Whitewater Bay should be a mess..as well the Gulf Side of the Keys and Florida Bay.
Could happen
Seems they are not sure on the timing issue... not sure on the intensity issue so why are they so sure on the track issue? My question. I think timing is off... and I think the intensity is off so .. think track is a bit too high.
The high to the right/east of is not as strong as the one to the north in the Gulf.. from water vapor imagery and as she moves north... the digging trough will pick her up.
No later than Sunday Night, early wee hours of Monday morning!
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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bulldg24
Unregistered
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Quote:
Out at Sarasota????< look at a map, no es possible
SURE its possible, just not probable. Anything is possible, it comes across the state goes into the Atlantic makes a loop (ala Jeanne) heads back into the east coast of Florida then exits @ Sarasota... See anything is possible, just not probable !!!
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jimg@fiberia.com
Unregistered
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I predict to regain its cat 5 statis ann hit the panhandle of florida 
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jbebel47
Unregistered
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Hard right turn....I think not.....out on a limb here.....long time over Ucatan, then straight for New Orleans.
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Weatherman85
Unregistered
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She's gonna hit between Tampa and Venice and exit between Daytona and Bunnell
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Tom Naples
Unregistered
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I have been through many storms. I am predicting a landfall 60 miles south of Naples Fl and exiting at Key Largo. Boy the weather in Naples today is crappy. We are getting storm bands of rain all day. 
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PRAYINGNOTTAMPA
Unregistered
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[PLEASE GOD LETS HOPE IT DOES NOT HIT TAMPA.WE HAVE HAD OUR SHARE OF LUCK BUT HEY WHO KNOWS LUCK ALWAYS SEEMS TO RUN OUT SOONER OR LATER
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steve_jax
Unregistered
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I think will make landfall as a TS with greatly weakened circulation in the vicinity of Homosassa, reaching the Atlantic as a broad low pressure system near Fernandina Bch, and move northeastward, re-developing in the vicinity of Cape Hatteras into a deep low pressure storm and quickly moving northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes eventually threatening North Atlantic shipping.
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workSunrise,FL
Unregistered
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Strike at Cape Romano, exit at Palm Beach...
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