Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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Quote:
NHC will update the track at 11:00am edt...about another 15 minutes or so.
11AM track is out and about the same as the 5am track and the storm is going 4 MPH
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zmdz01
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Simi Valley, CA
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Is starting another ? On the navy website, the 85hz shows what appears to be an outer eyewall forming. I've attached the picture since the navy website changes so often:
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Looking at the WV loop this morning I see what the models are alluding to, but I still think they're overblowing the "stall and sit" scenario.
You have a clearly-defined trough diving towards the gulf coast. In the last 12 hours it has gone from roughly the Texas Panhandle to the TX/LA border, which is pretty good progression! It is also deepening in axis, which inidicates that amplitude is rising there, and height falls should be occurring in front of and to the east of it.
The storm's outflow to the north is being pulled dramatically, to the point that its all the way north to Cedar Key, and is highly asymmetrical. The N and NE flow component of the upper air pattern causing this is clearly visible.
The first low is over Ohio, and headed towards the seaboard.
The current surface map clearly shows the frontal boundary expected to plow through the gulfcoast panhandle area tomorrow, and our forecast holds this out as well - we are expecting a ten degree drop in daytime highs, but the front is expected to come through tomorrow during the morning daylight hours. If it does, this would be, I'd expect, the steering element that picks up .
As it does the fairly weak blocking high over the FL/AL/GA border should be forced eastward and out, clearing the path for to move to the north and east.
The exact path will depend on that trough axis, and whether the impulse of amplification that is driving it is strong enough to force a more N-S axis rather than a weaker E-W one. To the extent that the axis tilts more to the N-S, should move more poleward.
Some of the models appear to be forcasgint a MISS by this trough entirely, instead forcasting that she will not get picked up until the one FOLLOWING that arrives. I don't know if I buy that scenario - the boundary behind the current trough doesn't look all that healthy this morning, while the one in front of it looks quite energetic, and is being driven south with quite a bit of vigor.
Of course yesterday, I thought it would get here this evening. Obviously not at this point....
Still, I would not take your eye off the ball anywhere along the west coast of Florida and particularly into the Keys. While the interaction with land is very likely to significantly weaken the storm, even a much weaker can still do significant damage......
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Dr Lyons said yesterday there is the possibility that this gets over the Yucatan and dies. it seems the is thinking this way now...it gets more interesting every run...we could only be so lucky
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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tpratch
Moderator
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Loc: Maryland
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I think it's likely that is the beginning of an , although it will take some time before it manifests. If I remember from , land can interrupt these quite nicely leading towards a highly disorganized storm.
Perhaps the models showing it dissipating and never regaining a core aren't out to lunch afterall?
I have to throw in that I do not believe can stall for the next day or two. It's likely she'll continue her brush with the Yucatan and may make it as high as Cat 5 before entering the GOM and more-hostile conditions.
If you're on the West coast of Florida, it doesn't hurt to be prepared. I'm not saying rush out, board up and leave now - what I am saying is get your tools ready to board (you can always put them back), get supplies ready to leave (you can always pack them in short order), and monitor your local emergency management broadcasts for any evacuation orders. There's a range of Cat 4 to TS at landfall from North of Tampa down to the everglades. It will not get any more specific until enters the GOM and starts the march towards us at increased forward speed.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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What run are you guys looking at in the ?
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native
Weather Guru
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Loc: SE Florida
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JCarroll - if you look to far left on here....look under the heading CONTENT (white letters/navy blue background) click on "General Info" and then at the top there, click on "Terms to know"
You should find that extremely helpful to navigate/decipher the boards here.
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mojorox
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Orlando
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This is driving me crazy. I am in Orlando. I have almost a hundred orchids hanging in my trees which might have to be brought in so they won't be missles and I am ill. I am worrying more about the angle of entry and exit. If it goes out by melbourne I have a lot of work to do to get ready and I am not looking forward to dragging myself outside to do it.
I feel for the people in Mexico. I know there are people in cozemel that could not get out. One is on a list I am on and there was no transportation out.
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Rdietch
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Looking at the one on weather underground...You know the Model you said yesterday had it going to Sarasota when it had it going to Naples...That same model.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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You mean the old run from last night 0Z,,that model isnt updated yet besides every model changes from run to run... Sarasota 1 day,,next run might be Cuba... they arnt sure.
Edited by scottsvb (Fri Oct 21 2005 11:08 AM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Wilma's satellite presentation is remarkably unchanged from when I went to bed about 9 hours ago. Looks like the motion has been mostly steady, with a slight turn to the left. It is going to have to make an abrupt turn to the right or else stall out to avoid a Yucatan landfall. You can clearly see an outer eyewall on the radar and it looks like the inner eyewall may be starting to weaken. The official advisory still indicates strengthening back to 135 knots in 12 hours, but I have a hard time seeing that happening. I don't think there is time for another to complete.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indianapolis
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If you read the disco at 11:00 it tells about the new !
THE NO LONGER KEEPS IN THE
CARIBBEAN FOR FIVE DAYS AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE REMAINING
MODELS
It sounds like we are slowly inching closer to at least some consistancy.
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Big Tk
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Tampa FL
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The new run has it going into sarasota in 96 hr. I highly doubt that but it is still way to early to speculate on were this storm will end up.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Yeah everyone was looking at last nights old run of the ,,that guy was giving out old info.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
Edited by scottsvb (Fri Oct 21 2005 11:21 AM)
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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I've notived that the hasn't changed its track for a few days, it's almost like they're splitting the models in the middle at times. It seems to me they're taking a wait and see until gets into the Gulf.
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garrison
Verified CFHC User
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Anbody have a link to a live Webcam on Cozumel or Cancun, the ones I have bookmarked arent live any more. clearly Cozumel is getting pounded hard and Cancun is going downhill by the minute. thanks
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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coming up on cnn max mayfield press conf
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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Quote:
You mean the old run from last night 0Z,,that model isnt updated yet besides every model changes from run to run... Sarasota 1 day,,next run might be Cuba... they arnt sure.
Yes there is a New Gaps and it keeps it over land for the 5 days.Not that it is right but that is NEW also when you posted yesterday the new 12Z run had it going to Sarasota it never did it had it going to Naples.
Anyway there is a New Gaps out and it has changed with the others.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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I didnt have it going to Naples,,It was Ft Myers-Sarasota area and that is the 6z run from yesterday or the 0z run.
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