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Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4366
Loc: Orlando, FL
Golly Kyle
      #6076 - Thu Oct 10 2002 11:23 AM

Well this morning we have a Tropical Storm watch. That pesky Kyle is nearing our coast, and is trying to restrengthen a bit. What does it mean for us? Breezy along the coast and a higher than normal chance of rain. Kyle won't be getting very strong however, there are too many negatives.

Kyle is being watched, as it is most interesting. Weeks ago I would have never imagined it nearing our coast, and here it is, weak, but here.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [mac]


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
cirrus blow off...
      #6077 - Thu Oct 10 2002 12:05 PM

Remember everyone along the mid central and south florida coastline when you get those clouds and possible rain from Kyle to the north it is NOT Kyle..NOT the CDO but it is called Cirrus Blow off. That's what they called it on TWC this morning and since that "cirrus blow off" has often been there and at times blown up into tstorms I don't want anyone screaming they got Kyle when it was just that cirrus blow off stuff.



--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Golly Kyle
      #6080 - Thu Oct 10 2002 01:15 PM


Will Kyle be anything?
You may choose only one
Yes
No way!
When the rams win a game!
It will just chil and mess everyone's weekend up.


Votes accepted from (Sun Jun 06 2004 12:38 PM) to (No end specified)
View the results of this poll



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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Golly Kyle
      #6081 - Thu Oct 10 2002 01:23 PM

Here is a link to Daytona's radar.


http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/local_radar.asp?partner=accuweather&nav=home&type=loop&nxtype=R1&nxsite=kmlb


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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Golly Kyle
      #6082 - Thu Oct 10 2002 01:59 PM

I am sure glad I checked in to see what was happening, or I might have missed Kyle! I am in Ormond Beach (adjoining Daytona on the north side). We have had a few little showers this morning and a nice breeze from the east most of the morning. As I look out my office window, it is apparent that winds are now coming from the NE, probably 10 MPH.
I would have hated to been in Kyle and missed it!


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STUART DAVE
Unregistered




Re: Golly Kyle
      #6083 - Thu Oct 10 2002 03:09 PM

Apparently my overly enthusiastic prediction of a cat 5 storm for Kyle last evening did not pan out. I am at a meteorological loss to explain this as I extrapolated the growth of the convection over a 24 hr period. There is something in the air over SE Central Florida that protects us here. Unfortunately State Farm has not bought off on this . Kyle is goimng the way of most storms of this year- weird. I believe in years past ,10 of the 12 storms this year would never have been named . It's obviously a plot to send Gray into early retirement as the NHC does not like the competition. At least my star fruit and avacados are safe again this year.

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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Link to data Bouy
      #6084 - Thu Oct 10 2002 03:28 PM

Here is a link to the Data Bouy 120 Nautical Miles East.
http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=41010

Wind gusts are up to 30knts
Water 83 degrees


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not-loged-in
Unregistered




Re: Golly Kyle
      #6085 - Thu Oct 10 2002 03:30 PM

Gee and I thought Kyle would send rain..
Doesnt look like much if any

Oh well on to next week and we will start watching and wondering again. Trying to plot this most questionable year for the tropics.

Thanks Insurance compaines for the shield
I really didn't want to pay more monies

Can you lower my rates now HUH HUH HUH

waiting to hear on the insurance lowering


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Golly Kyle
      #6086 - Thu Oct 10 2002 03:36 PM

Nice view on radar...thanks.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Stuart Dave
Unregistered




Re: Golly Kyle
      #6087 - Thu Oct 10 2002 05:03 PM

Just watched the WC Tropical update which was highlighting the wind gusts at the coast about 10mph(gusts!!). Fully expect them to have a crew onhand at St augustine should the storm come ashore. I believe they may have to have someone mix up some sea foam and throw it in front of the camera about the same time that they switch to a puddle somewhere in the area that they will magnify thru closeups to show the flooding rains. I can't recall how many hits Florida has suffered this year but I suppose this will count in the statistics for this highly active year.

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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
A Kyle Update
      #6088 - Thu Oct 10 2002 05:07 PM

From my house, 2.5 miles inland from the Ocean in Ormond Beach. We have had .04 inches of rain today, wind currently from the NE at between 3 - 10 MPH, pressure 1013 mb, periods of overcast skys, but very little else. Thankfully, this City has been through 2 tropical events this year (Edoquard & now Kyle) and I don't think we have even had a tree knocked down.

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tom5r
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
Re: A Kyle Update
      #6089 - Thu Oct 10 2002 05:24 PM

Hi All,

I just had to say something in this docile period in time so I thought I'd give old Kyle honorable mention. Heck, that's all anyone else can do. Stuart Dave, you said you didnt even have a downed tree this year but I have a gut feeling you may lose a couple of leaves with this one. Maybe some large leaves, who knows? Seriously though, after we finally get rid of this pest we can concentrate on anticipating the next real storm although time is starting to run out for this season. What do ya think, one more?


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tom5r
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
Re: A Kyle Update
      #6090 - Thu Oct 10 2002 05:25 PM

oops, it was volusiamike who mentioned the tress. Sorry

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bill-bo
Unregistered




Re: A Kyle Update
      #6091 - Thu Oct 10 2002 05:25 PM

Our daily summer thunder storms in Fla. are worse than this,In fact i dont even believe it has any rain!!!!!

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tom5r
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
Re: A Kyle Update
      #6092 - Thu Oct 10 2002 05:27 PM

let me try that again....trees. Whew,
how bout dem Dolphins


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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Golly Kyle
      #6093 - Thu Oct 10 2002 05:42 PM

Well, any tropical system to talk about is a good system, RIGHT????

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: A Kyle Update
      #6094 - Thu Oct 10 2002 05:43 PM

Thunder Storm-Passing Shower Kyle will be passing by my backyard sometime tonight/ tomorrow morning. He has gone to way too much trouble putting up a tropical storm watch on us as there isn't anything close to a tropical storm event taking place within 500 miles of me. Much like other posters here earlier, we go about a .10 inch of rain so far, even though it does appear we have a line of thunder storms/showers coming across the city at this time. I have yet to see it. I can't wait to see Kyle put fear into my beloved cats with his mighty gusts of, oh, 12 mph. Somehow I was at work this morning when this "huge" burst of convection took place. Did I miss everything?

Joe in JAX


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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Golly Kyle
      #6095 - Thu Oct 10 2002 05:45 PM

Since Kyle is going North, the criminoles will not have an excuse when they get whipped by his bigger brothers the Miami Hurricane's!

Go Gators and Go Niner's!!!!


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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Hey Joe
      #6096 - Thu Oct 10 2002 05:47 PM

I think I was near the same place as you were when the convection was crating all of the fuss.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
GARYC
      #6097 - Thu Oct 10 2002 09:25 PM

The Seminoles will play a better game against Miami than the Gators did. The Gators already lost twice and have at least 2 more losses coming (FSU and UGA). Gators=3rd best college team in Florida.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
kyle perks up a bit
      #6098 - Thu Oct 10 2002 10:11 PM

there is something that fairly resembles a CDO on kyle now, so i'm guessing that it will deepen some overnight and tomorrow. it's turning offshore a ways, not going to be passing directly over the coastline until some time tomorrow in south carolina. the pressure seems to have fallen a bit (buoy obs of 1010mb a bit west of the center). i suspect that as the gradient tightens north of the system, gale force winds develop north of the storm, a la bastardi, yada yada, ad infinitum. in florida there's nothing to fear, nor in georgia.. but up in the carolinas and virginia, probably some damp, breezy weather tomorrow into saturday. the equivalent of a fall noreaster, possibly.
as for the next storm being hedged on.. there is pretty good model consensus about trouble starting down in the sw caribbean and migrating nw late in the weekend into next week. how/whether to phase whatever may form up into our weather picture isnt really very clear on model runs, but with this kind of consensus i would expect to see marco going down there next week.
HF 0211z11october


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: kyle perks up a bit
      #6099 - Thu Oct 10 2002 10:56 PM

I can't believe the Weather Channel really did it. They sent a crew to Jacksonville Beach to report on Thunder Storm Kyle's impact on my area!

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!!!

Winds out of the north at 90, oh, one moment please, make that 9 MPH!!! That's right folks, 9 mph! And every once in a while, rain. REAL LIGHT RAIN. Tides are running about TWO INCHES above normal. Wait, I thought I saw a rip current!

Geeeeeezzzzzz.
We really are getting a thunderstorm at the moment, first sign of anything today. Kyle was a non-event, to put it nicely.He'll be out of sight by lunch tomorrow, not like we saw much of him anyway.
Geeeeeeezzzzzz!

Joe in JAX


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Kyle...
      #6100 - Fri Oct 11 2002 01:03 AM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kjax.shtml

Based on the radar link and tonight's IRs, if I was in South Carolina I know I'd be into it (as would most of you). Hell, an outer band is worth a six-pack.

I agree with HF on the SW Carribean. It's too early to call, but there's going to be a pretty big front sweep into the Gulf this weekend. New Orleans is forecasted to start at 72 Sunady and drop from there. It's our first fall shot. That's supposed to hold until maybe Thursday. 4 days of mild-cool air (plus all the recent rainfall - another 6-12" in SW LA since Sunday), the NGC water temps will come down some. There is a link at ATCW.org to a site that gives maximum hurricane potential as of a given time over the Atlantic basin based on these temps, shear and other indicators. That's something to watch this week. I've only run across that link 1 time, and it was 2 days old, but when I run across it again, I'll post it. It might be important next week. Gut feeling tells me the threat is 150 miles or more east of here, but could be a Cat-2 or 3 event for someone in the US next weekend.

TPS

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Here's the link...
      #6101 - Fri Oct 11 2002 01:07 AM

http://grads.iges.org/pix/atlpot.gif

If anyone has a better one, post it.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
TROPICAL STORM AGAIN
      #6102 - Fri Oct 11 2002 04:43 AM

Kyle becomes a tropical storm again!!!!

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Kyle...
      #6103 - Fri Oct 11 2002 08:56 AM

Don't look now, but Kyle is a TS again with winds of 45 knots. A little bit later this morning he should make landfall in SC. Look for some gusty winds and heavy rains in that area. This is by no means a life-threatening or damaging storm, but residents in the areas I mentioned above may want to keep an eye on the weather just in case.

There is a tropical wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands that has some strong convection and organization this morning. I expect this to be short lived as very intense westerlys are just ahead of the system. This one's gonna get chewed to shreads.

The SW Caribbean is where Floridians need to keep an eye out later this weekend and all of next week. All of the models (AVN, NOGAPS, UKMET) bring a broad area NW and N out of the SW Caribbean by the mid-part of next week. My thoughts on this: A TD develops by Monday morning while moving slowly towards the NW. The TD organizes into TS Marco later on Monday while still moving NW. Marco has little change in intensity on the early part of Tuesday but begins to rapidly organize into a hurricane by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Begins to move north over western Cuba by Thursday and turns NNE making landfall somewhere between Tampa and Naples by Friday. Of course, something has to develop first, but once a low pressure forms down there it will only be a matter of time.

I'll be leaving later today with my family for our trip. The weather up in the mountains looks to be clear but pretty chilly. 60's for highs and 40's for lows...that's pretty cold for central Floridians. Interesting to know we could be facing a tropical cyclone, maybe a strong one, just around the time we get home. If we get word some big storm is coming out of the Caribbean we'll be back in a hurry....but we are just going to enjoy vacation and see what happens.

Kevin


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Steveunplugged
Unregistered




Re: Kyle...
      #6104 - Fri Oct 11 2002 11:48 AM

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrir.html

Isn't that nice? Kyle went and made a beautiful heart on the Carolina Coast. Look at the 14:45 UTC frame (go to the archives). It's the tropics' way of saying thanx to each and ever one of us again this year. I love you too Kyle.

Steve-unplugged


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tom5r
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
Re: Kyle...
      #6105 - Fri Oct 11 2002 12:19 PM

We've all been saying that Kyle has heart and soul. Seems kinda proper he would make that heart at landfall. Somewhat poetic.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
trailer to kyle?
      #6106 - Fri Oct 11 2002 02:08 PM

havent seen any t.s. force wind reports, from anywhere. a few gusts have made it.. but wherever the gale force winds are, they are localized and probably transient in offshore squalls. 2pm position has it right off cape romain. i guess kyle will pass cape fear and the outerbanks at cartaret and dare counties later today and tonight, and be out to sea tomorrow. might actually become extratropical in the meanwhile.. structure is elongating ahead of a weak frontal zone, with all of the activity pretty much on the eastern side.
as for the caribbean issue this week.. kevin has already outlined a hurricane hit scenario for the west coast of florida.. egad. i'm going to be a little more conservative, say that modeling and pattern suggest something might materialize down there between sunday and tuesday, and that it will probably come up and cross cuba. that said, several of the globals are placing a leader low (maybe one of those fake binary systems they like to generate) off the southeast coast later this week and steering the caribbean system eastward into the bahamas. if that low is realistic, it would make the threat extreme se florida and more likely the bahamas. in other words, no irene.. more like michelle. thats my take.. though i havent even confidence that it will form, much less be in a position to threaten. synoptic setup isnt there yet, a fierce shear jet has to lift and some ridging needs to advance into the sw carib region.
HF 1807z11october


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Kyle...
      #6107 - Fri Oct 11 2002 07:29 PM

Steve
What a lovely thought! And here I was thinking such negative things like what an irritant Kyle is and is and is and is...


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Time to look south
      #6108 - Fri Oct 11 2002 11:24 PM

A note from our friends at the NHC:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE AREA ARE LOW...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Anybody want to bet that this is a) what the models have been toying with; and b) the beginings of Marco.....

Joe in JAX


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Time to look south
      #6109 - Sat Oct 12 2002 06:51 AM

Convection increasing south of Jamaica and east of Nicaragua. Next storm is coming soon. Where will it go?

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Time to look south
      #6110 - Sat Oct 12 2002 08:32 AM

You got it Joe, check out the model runs,they have been picking up on this for a few days now. I believe that MARCO is going to come and visit, even if it's just for a quick drive by!
Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Mary
Unregistered




Re: Time to look south
      #6111 - Sat Oct 12 2002 10:12 AM

Toni Do you think that we will see anything of Marco on the west coast of Florida. I am interested in this because I am in Lakeland .

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Time to look south
      #6112 - Sat Oct 12 2002 10:35 AM

Think we need to wait until tomorrow's models runs to get a better handle on what could be marco. First we need to see development. Models differ with AVN/MRF bringing a weaker system over Cuba/Florida on it's way north to move quickly NNE, to the UKMET that waits for development of this energy in the Carolinas, then bombs it out to a huge system heading into N. England. NOGAPS has it developing west of Jamaica then heads it NE into the Bahamas missing Florida, and GFDL (from Kyle run) have it developing north of Honduras then running dangerously close to South Florida then toward the Bahamas.(120 hr frame missing). Can't really make a compromise solution out of this. It's either gonna get pulled north into the Carolinas and develop or it isn't. And if it doesn't, does it follow the track of the model that pulls it north. I doubt it. We need to examine it when it develops and where. No magic here. Let the models show where When it develops. Now that I've said a lot of nothing. Let's wait and see? BTW, how about that system off Africa?? Strange ain't it?? Cheers!!

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STUART DAVE
Unregistered




Re: Time to look south
      #6113 - Sat Oct 12 2002 11:11 AM

When unable to make a decision it is best to check the Bastardi column. Alas there is no mention of an M storm today which means I must conclude it will not happen. Again the alignment of protective air currents around SFLA will keep me safe here in SFLA. Besides one of the WPB weatherman last night pointed to North of Hispanoila as where he was watching and TWC hurricane update at 552am made no mention of anything possible.Sad to say I'll probably closely be watching the satellites today and checking this site constantly even though the odds are so remote....

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
kyle passes the baton
      #6114 - Sat Oct 12 2002 11:21 AM

last kyle advisory.. somewhere in the 80s for total advisories, i believe. kyle made #3 all time on the longevity list, quite impressive.
the appearance of the w caribbean this morning is the first confirmation of all of those global's premise that trouble would begin down there. since it is developing about five days behind the current westpac typhoon in the corresponding location.. look for a similar path.. which is nne. some modeling has the system clipping se florida, but the consensus is across central cuba and the bahamas. the big model difference right now revolves around a possible noreaster ahead/with the storm. on avn they are one in the same, but on NOGAPS, ukmet, CMC.. a separate frontal wave get supercharged as it phases in and tears up the east coast next week. so if we have a tropical system coming out of the caribbean, it will probably be interacting with a closer, more powerful extratropical low that runs the east coast during the middle of next week.
other basin activity.. MJO is about to flip back to happy, so something else could try to happen in the near future. the current pattern that will periodically favor western caribbean development should hold for the near future, so this theme could be repeating next week or the week after.
HF 1520z12october


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: kyle passes the baton
      #6115 - Sat Oct 12 2002 11:42 AM

Not to begin the hype too early but the llittle spot in the western Caribbean looks at least as good by the infrared as Kyle ever did most of the time and he did some trouble in the Carolinas. Also wanted to see what would show up when I registered again.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Time to look south
      #6116 - Sat Oct 12 2002 07:27 PM

Mary to answer your question if I think that future Marco could affect the W coast of Fl, I would have to say that there is certainly a possibility, as Steve mentioned earlier, the models should have a better handle on it tomorrow.
Toni
CHECK THIS OUT.....



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER MIAMI FL
330 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2002


CARIBBEAN...12Z GFS/AVN RUN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE SW PART OF THE AREA AND MOVES IT N ABOUT 20 KT
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON MON. NOGAPS MOVEMENT IS A LITTLE SLOWER
MOVING THE SYSTEM OFF THE HONDURAS COAST.

ATLC...LIGHT WIND ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
GFS/AVN MOVES THE SYSTEM ACROSS W CENTRAL CUBA ON TUE AND THEN
ACCELERATES IT ON A NEARLY DUE N TRACK WED AND THU. NOGAPS IS
MUCH SLOWER ON THE SYSTEMS MOVEMENT. GFDL RUN INDICATES A
946 MB HURRICANE WITH 105 KT WINDS IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE N
BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA IN 72 HOURS.


--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
nhc test model runs on 95L
      #6117 - Sat Oct 12 2002 08:44 PM

Per the axis of evil model runs....

Mr. Evil the GFDL
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/02101223

the other Evils
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/02101300

In a day or so Marco might form just down south in the NW Caribbean and he's getting ready to make a run at extreme south florida... Big cold front expected to be in the NGC area early on Sunday morning... come on down Mr. cold front, cause we been waiting for ya for the past 5 months.... YAHOO...... system in the NW Caribbean might just be the swan song for this years rather interesting season... boy, I had my full for sure.......


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


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Re: nhc test model runs on 95L
      #6118 - Sat Oct 12 2002 10:25 PM

Speed, speed, speed. It seems that's where the Axis of Evil models are showing their disagreements. The ones that are turning Marco (may I call it that?) into the Bahama's are getting him up there in a hurry. Slower models put him a little bit more to the west. Of course, at the moment, we're talking about a system that hasn't formed yet.

From what my eyes tell me, we are looking at several problems. One, in most cases, the 'system' will actually take a short tour of Central America while it is in the process of trying to get going. Where (or what) it comes out as is the first problem. When, of course, is the second.

If we have a system at that point, where does it cross Cuba (Fidal piss somebody off this year?) and when? For the third time this year, the Isle of Youth may hold the answer. West of the Isle, bad news for Florida; east and I don't think he touches the US.

Last, and the one I can't begin to even try to answer, is there seems to be some kind of fall noreaster off of the upper East coast mid week. Axis of Evil models go to war on this issue. Are the noreaster and Marco one and the same, or are they separate? If the two lows are not connected, good news for Florida, Marco goes fishing, because the noreaster breaks down any ridge that trys to redevelop over the south (opens the door, so to speak). If they are really the same system then Marco is a whole lot closer to the East coast then some in the Axis of Evil would lead us to believe. At any rate, I don't think anywhere west of Florida will see a cloud from him. That's my take on 'Marco' tonight, but like I said a way's up in this post, we don't even have a system yet.

Joe in Jax
Go Jags!!!!!!
So sorry Free Shoes Univ.(FSU)!!


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Ed D at HRMC
Unregistered




From the Cyber Cafe at Holmes Regional
      #6119 - Sat Oct 12 2002 10:27 PM

Sorry that I haven't been active during the past week - ended up in the hospital with diverticularis - an infection of the lower intestine. Finally recovering and just found the Internet room at the hospital. Expect to be back home on Monday or Tuesday - I was beginning to suffer from PC withdrawal I don't have any of my links so I'm going to see what I can find from doing a little net surfing and check out the southern Caribbean system that you are chatting about. I'll break away from my I/V and check in again sometime tomorrow evening. Best to all.
Cheers,
ED


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HanKFranK
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ack
      #6120 - Sat Oct 12 2002 11:26 PM

pure hell in the sports world.. i dont remember ever going so psycho over a game. we could have beaten the #1 team... wide left #*@L#*! (much nicer than anything ive had to say today). now ed is in the hospital... more bad. only bright spot is anaheim just about closing up the AL. be nice for the team that kicked the yankees out to take it all.
ah well, i dont believe in all the models juicing up a major hurricane, see maybe a fast moving irene-type system that narrowly misses se florida. probably a noreaster coming up ahead of it. maybe something else in the basin this week, MJO is going to switch back to happy mode.
HF 0326z13october


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Steve
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Get well soon ED...
      #6121 - Sun Oct 13 2002 02:34 AM

And be sure to get the soft wipes, not the cardboard ones usually available in your hospital room.

UK MET looks pretty nasty for Long Island up through the Maritimes. I think we get at least a Cat-1 out of all this, and the good folks in SFL who have only gotten a few bands come through this year, might get a little tropical scare. We had our fill up here, so enjoy whatever you get.

Down the road, there are different solutions including 2 tropical systems, tropical system and nor'easter, big phase bomb. It's way too early to tell. Can't say I'm too happy about the cold front coming down though. We're not supposed to get out of the low 70's next week, and most nights will be in the 50's and 60's. I'll take that kind of weather in January, February and March, but OCTOBER? Brrrrrrrr. No thanks. Give me a 95 degree day anytime!

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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NOTHING YET
      #6122 - Sun Oct 13 2002 07:49 AM

Early Sunday and nothing yet. We will see. Find it funny that Gator fans here are knocking the Noles, who only lost to the number 1 team by 1 point on the last play at Miami. Gators lost for the 3rd time by a swamped 36-7 and have at least 2 more losses coming (FSU and UGA). They were also swamped by the Canes at home. Say goodbye to the top 25 and welcome to the last place team in the state.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
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57497479
Weather Master


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WEST CARIBBEAN
      #6123 - Sun Oct 13 2002 09:18 AM

Most of the model runs this AM is starting to shift a little to the Left,the NOGAPS has a piece of energy that is around N.Fl and then is quickly picked up the the ENE. The UKMET looks like a broad area of low pressure at 42hrs, and does not develop until its on it's way up the E Coast. One thing we know for sure is that what ever happens it will eventually make it up the East coast and that is one thing that all the models can agree on.
Check this discussion out, any one have differing opinions.
Toni

By the way the GFDL (for all you fans) has a 111kt hurricane sitting at the tip of Cuba in 120 hr. with a broad area of low pressure in the N. GOM. WOW what a change from its previous run. Wonder what it has in store for it's next run.
ALL GUESSES ARE BEING ACCEPTED.


MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2002

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE AREA THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. IN THE SHORT TERM A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER THE W GULF AREA EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT OVER THE EXTREME SW GULF TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY MON FROM NE FLORIDA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVER THE SW GULF BUT BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER THE NW GULF LATE
MON.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. GFS/AVN CONTINUES TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. GFS TRACKS THE LOW
ACROSS E NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY MON. THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SEE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...THE
GFS 200 MB WINDS INDICATE SOME SWLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA AND CURRENTLY THE CONVECTION IS WELL TO THE NE OF THE BROAD
LOW. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM MAY NOT DEEPEN VERY RAPIDLY.
PERHAPS...THE UKMET MAY BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS THE 12Z RUN
INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A
STRONGER BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR NE FLORIDA IN THE EXTENDED
OUTLOOK. IN ANY CASE...THE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
MON AND JUST SOUTH OF W CUBA MON NIGHT. CURRENT OFFSHORE
FORECAST INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE.

ATLC...NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS HERE AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
BUT...WINDS WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
IT SEEMS THAT THERE IS A GREAT DEAL MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTEND OUTLOOK TODAY WHICH HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
DAYS. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SE US/GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS
TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAROCLINIC LOW NEAR NE
FLORIDA. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP TO PULL THE CARIBBEAN LOW
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND MOST LIKELY THE BAHAMAS
ON TUE.
THE NOGAPS MODELS SEEMS TO BE THE ODD MAN OUT...AS IT KEEPS THE
CARIBBEAN LOW SOUTH OF CUBA.

BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET QUICKLY MERGE THE CARIBBEAN LOW WITH THE
BAROCLINIC LOW AND COLD FRONT EARLY WED. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA. STRONG
SLY WINDS...POSSIBLY TO NEAR GALE FORCE...ARE EXPECTED E OF THE
FRONT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE
ATLC AND GULF MEXICO. THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N71W
TO CENTRAL CUBA THU. WINDS WILL DECREASE W OF THE FRONT...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE
ATLC WATERS.

WARNINGS...
NONE.

FORECASTER BROWN






--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: From the Cyber Cafe at Holmes Regional
      #6124 - Sun Oct 13 2002 09:21 AM

Hey Ed, hope you get to feeling better.... and get the heck out of that hospital....

System in Caribbean not all that impressive on IR this morning but still hanging around.. looks to be drifting NNW or N.... Hunter going to check it out this am... what ever is down there should certainly not affect the NGC... maybe extreme S FL.. maybe just Cuba and the Bahamas... maybe nada

HF ... FSU should have beaten the Canes... WIDE LEFT.... Kicking game sucked for both teams in the final few minutes...

Saints will continue their first place dominance in the NFC South with a win over the Skins....

Golden Eagles lost to South Florida.... geesh, is that a junior college or something? maybe they are the third best team in Florida... USM struggling... big time...


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recmod
Weather Guru


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Posts: 188
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Re: ack
      #6125 - Sun Oct 13 2002 09:23 AM

HankFrank...are you changing your predictions for the system in the Caribbean? Yesterday at 2pm..you posted that

"in other words, no irene.. more like michelle. thats my take.."

But, your 11pm post reverses that statement to

"see maybe a fast moving irene-type system that narrowly misses se florida"

I always watch your posts and read them carefully, for they are always full of insight and reasonable analysis. I was just wondering what you see changing down in the SW Caribbean to make you do a 180?

Lou


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1063
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Kyle's remnants...
      #6126 - Sun Oct 13 2002 09:54 AM

Several of the global models really develop the remains of the ST remains of Kyle midweek. Looks like Europe may get to see some decent leftover action.

Canadian has joined the UKMET with a big storm from Delmarva on up. UKMET 00Z run affects areas much further west than previous runs and indicates a landfall with a track north, then NW toward the Eastern Great Lakes(?).

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: From the Cyber Cafe at Holmes Regional
      #6127 - Sun Oct 13 2002 09:56 AM

Feel better soon ED. SEE you found a computer room in the hospital, even they know that a computer will make you feel better.
Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: From the Cyber Cafe at Holmes Regional
      #6128 - Sun Oct 13 2002 10:44 AM

Should have you can write books on.. what happened is what happened. The football gods smiled down on Miami and was wide............ every which way you can lose Miami won, done.

Made me smile.

Like to see what people think will really happen with this system? Is it developing or not?

Supposed to go out of town Tuesday morning and be in NYC on Wedneday, have read so much on this that not sure where I will have the worst weather...here or there, go figure.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
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Re: ack
      #6129 - Sun Oct 13 2002 11:36 AM

i see what youre talking about.. i was thinking about two different aspects of the storm, intensity and track. to clarify, i want an irene intensity (cat 1 as it crosses land (cuba, bahamas) and a michelle track (threatens but bends away, no landfall). yeah, it looks goofy.. but cut me some slack. i'm not a die hard football guy, but even i went ballistic and was left mentally drained after yesterday. we squandered a chance to beat miami.. seized defeat from the jaws of victory.
if the teleconnections to the westpac work out, this storm misses the southeast u.s. coast. one different solution last night did catch my eye, the NOGAPS, which doesnt phase the storm, takes all the energy up off the southeast and has enough ridging below the negatively tilted trough in a few days to stall the system and drift it west. i dont favor this, but will be looking for more support as it differs greatly with other model solutions.
by the way, the broad low pressure area down there is fairly well defined. i would expect it to be a depression within 12 hours. 90% that this thing is a go.
HF 1534z13october


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anon, keith
Unregistered




slower development
      #6130 - Sun Oct 13 2002 11:54 AM

The GFDL seems to have pinpointed intensity, but not track, I believe. That model seems to make the most sense as far as track though. It seems to be much slower with development and movement than the others which would make it a completely different scenario regarding environmental conditions. Just a thought

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Darcy
Unregistered




Re: slower development
      #6131 - Sun Oct 13 2002 12:39 PM

My first post this year!
Bye bye Kyle!

Are you guys serious abot this new one? Tke a step back for a second...you're really predicitng this thing as if it will go anywhere near where you think it will! Remember, it's still a wave.



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anon keith
Unregistered




Re: slower development
      #6132 - Sun Oct 13 2002 01:08 PM

I should have been more specific in my last post. I believe this YEAR the GFDL has done well with intensity, not necessarily at landfall but at peak performance. You can't assume anything with this WAVE, however the GFDL takes it inland and then back out while the others keep it over water bringing in poleward faster. That's why I believe the GFDL scenario seems reasonable as far as timing. That would also change the environmental conditions being south of Cuba in 120 hours opposed to almost every other model which had it there 3 days earlier.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Never count on a Field Goal
      #6133 - Sun Oct 13 2002 02:46 PM

Always take them when you can get them, an easy 3 but never hang your whole game on a FG.

You put it away when you can, because often even sure things aren't on the football field.

As for the tropics..

My problem is that although pressures are low that front is barreling down and it seems that the environment down there isn't very conducive to a system getting itself together the strongest convection keeps blowing off.

Think a bending track like Michelle is more likely...or just offshore.

Personally I'd like to see a Caribbean Hurricane the following week or two ... after the big front or two pass and some moisture stays down there and there is more time for something to develop and move north.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Ed D at HRMC
Unregistered




Invest 95L Possibilities
      #6134 - Sun Oct 13 2002 09:24 PM

Well I think that the system will develop - eventually. Convection continues to refire and cyclonic envelope looks promising, but system has only dropped a couple of mb in the past 8 hours. I'm not convinced that development will be as rapid as projected by most of the models. There is a possible outlier to its future track, i.e., if the evolution of the low off the northeast Florida - Georgia coasts occurs within the next 24 hours, the developing tropical cyclone may get left behind as the nor'easter moves rapidly up the coast and establishes a blocking pattern over the northeast Gulf. Should this happen, the potentially furure Marco would get trapped south of Cuba rather than pulled northeastward with the Atlantic coastal gale. For this reason, its still too early to come up with a 'comfortable' forecast track for this developing tropical system.

On the medical front, looks like I'll be released from the hospital tomorrow afternoon - recovery was much improved today. If the thoughts noted above don't pan out, I'll just blame it on a fuzzy mind due to medical complications
Cheers,
ED


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Hurric
Weather Guru


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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: Never count on a Field Goal
      #6135 - Sun Oct 13 2002 09:40 PM

Really surprised no posts tonite. Looking at IR floater it would appear that a depression has probably formed near 17N ,81w. I would say looks like movement around 10 and just west of due north. I sure hope this post to board and someone will give me some feedback on these thoughts. Dolphins going to have to really work tonite to beat those Broncos.
Hurric


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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South Florida mentioned to stay alert
      #6136 - Sun Oct 13 2002 10:18 PM

Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on October 13, 2002
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A weak surface low located to the east of the Nicaragua/Honduras border continues to show signs of organization. This system has the potential to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 to 36 hours. An Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the area again tomorrow afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall associated with this system will affect Jamaica...the Cayman Islands as well as portions of Cuba during the next day or so as the low moves to the north. All interests in the above mentioned countries including the Bahamas and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system.



--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Hurric- a reply
      #6137 - Sun Oct 13 2002 10:41 PM

Here's what the TPC had to say at 9:00pm:

1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W MOVING NW 10 KTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS AREA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED NE OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 77W-82W.

I would note that they say 14N 82W. If that's the case, then at least some of the models run this afternoon started out wrong. NW at 10 would also throw them off. I'm still thinking this thing isn't going to come flying out of there as fast as some thought. Also, the low that was (or is) to become a noreaster on the east coast isn't just going "to form" there, a low has broken off a wave in the bahama's and should get tangled with the cold front coming through the area. I mention that only to point out that some of the longer range models seem to have the right idea, but got some minor details wrong. At this point, most would point toward Cuba taking a shot of some kind and then out through the bahama's. But first we have to see a system get named, and the Key West forecast would lead you to believe we're not going to see one:

...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE SWRN
CARIBBEAN...WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THE DISTURBANCE OUGHT TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...THEN ACCELERATE NE.

??????? Who knows why something moving NW at 10 would do what KW says? Maybe they have a pretty good handle on it. Your guess is as good as any of ours.

Joe in Jax
Won't even talk about the Jags. Bad weekend for North FLA football.............


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: South Florida mentioned to stay alert
      #6138 - Sun Oct 13 2002 10:45 PM

Hey Ed D., good to hear you're recovering nicely, and hope you get home soon. Yeah, I've been debating whether or not the Real area of Low pressure will come north yet or not. Thought the idea the GFDL had this morning was good, but looking at the satellite pix tonight, I'm wondering if most of this system will get dragged north and get wrapped eventually into the storm of the Carolinas. Pressures are not very low where the area of concern is, but perhaps they are falling futher north bbetween NE Honduras and Jamaica. Models are having a tough time with this, and I think the 18Z GFDL can be thrown out as it has this low too far east IMO. This one has me stumped right now, but if we get a Marco down there then maybe we'll get some better model output. There's an awful lot of real estate between Honduras and the Carolinas so a lot can happen. Earlier runs shifted from keeping these systems separate, to merging them. Still a blurry picture. Trouble with systems like this is that they can surprise you. If the system is actually taking shape SW of Jamaica and moving NNW, and if it gets a chance to intensify more than expected with the rapid movement of the AVN et el, this could get dicey for South Florida. We'll see what tomorrow brings. Cheers!!

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57497479
Weather Master


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Posts: 414
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Re: South Florida mentioned to stay alert
      #6139 - Sun Oct 13 2002 10:52 PM

Big burst of convection around 17 and 80. Looks like it is continuing to become better organized . There is a lot that can play into the future movement of the storm, the models has the storm moving either up the West or East coast of Fl. some has the storm clipping S.Fl. and going up E Coast or missing Fl. all together.Hopefully the next few model runs will give us more to go on. My patience is starting to run real thin, it is nearing the end of the season and I haven't even felt a brisk breeze where I live.

Toni

HOW BOUT THOSE BUCS, 5-1

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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HanKFranK
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after midnight
      #6140 - Mon Oct 14 2002 12:29 AM

lots of convection going off where the broad center of the disturbance is located, hard to tell exactly what is down there. i'm fairly confident that this is a depression, and will probably be a tropical storm on recon, if sat presentation and obs ahead of the system dont have it there by midday tomorrow. also, seems to be progressing northward at enough speed so that i doubt it will fail to phase in ahead of the soon to be coastal low. model consensus still east of florida, but the ones with the best initializations tend to take it very close by monroe dade broward and palm beach counties. should get some weather out of this, at least. the further north it gets, the more shear will impact the system (though baroclinic deepening may counterbalance). short term intensification will determine whether this is a gusty tropical storm or a deepening hurricane when it reaches cuba on tuesday, the florida straits tuesday afternoon, and blasts up by hatteras on wednesday. probably not going to do any purely tropical deepening north of 25N, and it should be up there in just over 36 hours.
for anybody of you who like to ponder things that may happen down the road, the basic setup which has given us this soon-to-be marco is going to persist through next week, and maybe spin off something else by next weekend.
HF 0428z14october


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: South Florida watching after the Game:)
      #6141 - Mon Oct 14 2002 01:20 AM

Unreal game..never rely on field goals. Again i say that, well winning by one is nice but Denver should have scored 7 on one of those earlier possessions and they would have beat us..

Either way.. looking at loops and looks like Marco is going to be something to deal with..

Have to see what they say tomorrow but looks still like Miami would be left of the current track..will see soon.

Great game.. great tropical fun going on here..see if the system is playing peek a boo with the hurricane hunters. Interesting to see what they say at five am..



--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
NOTHING YET
      #6142 - Mon Oct 14 2002 05:10 AM

Low pressure out there, but no classified system yet. Winds NW at Kingston, Jamaica shows system to it's SW. Big day to watch system today. Most models take system just east of Miami(Football Capital Of The USA - Fins and Canes Both #1 in the Country ). Miami mentions possibility of 3-5" of rain and severe weather for tomorrow. We shall see.


--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


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Re: NOTHING YET
      #6143 - Mon Oct 14 2002 07:54 AM

I have to get off to work real quick, but I'm going to say this is not Marco, not enough time before cold front picks it up, this is a fall noreaster. Of course, now I won't know until tonight, so everyone else kep an eye on it for me, OK?

Joe in JAX


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garyb
Weather Guru


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Runs on TD #14
      #6144 - Mon Oct 14 2002 09:23 AM

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN (AL142002) ON 20021014 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

021014 1200 021015 0000 021015 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 17.3N 82.9W 19.0N 82.9W 21.3N 81.7W

BAMM 17.3N 82.9W 18.7N 83.1W 20.6N 82.1W

A98E 17.3N 82.9W 19.1N 83.0W 20.5N 82.1W

LBAR 17.3N 82.9W 19.2N 82.9W 21.5N 82.2W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

021016 0000 021016 1200 021017 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 24.2N 79.1W 27.9N 75.7W 37.5N 66.7W

BAMM 23.0N 79.9W 25.8N 76.7W 33.1N 69.0W

A98E 22.1N 80.6W 24.1N 78.7W 28.1N 74.7W

LBAR 23.9N 80.9W 26.7N 79.1W 35.2N 71.0W

SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 52KTS

DSHP 39KTS 45KTS 46KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 82.9W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 15.3N LONM12 = 82.5W DIRM12 = 349DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 82.1W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


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Bill
Unregistered




STDS- here we go!
      #6145 - Mon Oct 14 2002 09:23 AM

IHS,

Bill

WONT41 KNHC 141259
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
855 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2002

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATE
THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND HAS
BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES WILL INITIATED
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN AT 11 AM EDT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON ITS EXACT LOCATION AND
INTENSITY.

FORECASTER STEWART



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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: STDS- here we go!
      #6146 - Mon Oct 14 2002 10:31 AM

Let the Speculations, ruminations, whining and Wowing begin!

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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meowmix12
Unregistered




Re: STDS- here we go!
      #6147 - Mon Oct 14 2002 10:40 AM

it looks like a cat4 to me and going to my house, that is my prediction

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
marco
      #6148 - Mon Oct 14 2002 10:43 AM

this will be a tropical storm upon recon. convectively very healthy, apparently stacked, over the nw caribbean in october with a classic synoptic config.
probably going to reach hurricane, but things become iffy past cuba. still not thinking on a direct hit for southern florida, but a close enough call to give plenty of rain and wind. beyond there the storm begins transitioning into an extratropical system through absorption... looks like it is going too slow to phase in to a single superbomb. think the most likely scenario is the storm phases in east of georgia, as the extratropical low is deepening and moving northward near hatteras on wednesday.. the low peaks in intensity late thu/early friday as it passes new jersey and new england.. occluding by the time it reaches maine late on the 17th.
bastardi outlines three scenarios that various models have been harping on, factoring in his considerations for the warm water off the northeast. i'm pretty much with his absorption option, but not quite at its worst.
think we get at least one more after this one. bastardi saying the season is over. not ready to buy that.
HF 1442z14october


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: marco
      #6149 - Mon Oct 14 2002 11:59 AM

Just when you stop paying attention to the weather look what happens. So anyone think this could be another Irene type situation?

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Richie at work
Unregistered




Marco???
      #6150 - Mon Oct 14 2002 12:02 PM

Will we be having another Irene in South Florida 3 years to the exact day tomorrow?
Wxman Richie


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 992
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: marco
      #6151 - Mon Oct 14 2002 12:13 PM

HF all that you say is probably correct...except for the fact that the baroclinic low is phasing now south of Louisiana...I suspect the storm that develops south of Cuba will go more ene after the next 12 hours or so...that is a pretty strong and deep trough to its west and this thing will not become strong enough to neutralize the pretrough upper winds from pushing it quickly to the NE...I don't see this storm being the east coast storm at all...EDS.

--------------------
doug


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: marco
      #6152 - Mon Oct 14 2002 01:06 PM

Guess the movement ultimately depends on how deep the trough to the west digs. Stewart's concern is that the flow may back to the SSW, giving Marco a chance to approach the Florida peninsula a bit further west than anticipatedwhile causing less shear across him. Anyone notice a low forming just east of Miami? Check out vis loop. Winds here in Melbourne are out of the NNE with heavy rain. CHeers!!

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Richie at work
Unregistered




Marco???
      #6153 - Mon Oct 14 2002 02:04 PM

Upper air outflow looking much better. This will be a storm very soon and may intensify more rapidly.

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Bill
Unregistered




Re: marco
      #6154 - Mon Oct 14 2002 02:04 PM

Well, the forcast is already off..went from moving N at 12mph in the 11 am advisory to stationary and meandering 3 hrs later. !!

IHS,

Bill


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Stuart Dave
Unregistered




Re: marco
      #6155 - Mon Oct 14 2002 02:14 PM

For residents of So Florida , let's not get all excited as a careful review by me of all forecasters and models have this storm (if it becomes one) avoiding the area. Bastardi hints at it coming closer but that is only because he badly needs a So Fl hit to prove himself right for the year. So Floridians should be paying more attention to the upcoming cold front as temps in the 60's this time of year are unusual and very welcome. The chances of the front coming thru are 100% , finally a sure thing for us down here.

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matty
Unregistered




Re: marco
      #6156 - Mon Oct 14 2002 02:24 PM

those 60's are only overnight lows not daytime lows. 60's at night isnt an uncommon thing for florida in oct.



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sj7611
Unregistered




Re: marco
      #6157 - Mon Oct 14 2002 02:34 PM

LLC appears exposed on the west side of the convection.Appears to be moving west in the last few loops.
Anyone think it stays south of the front and ends up in the GOM?
Steve
South Florida


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
TD 14 (Marco?)
      #6158 - Mon Oct 14 2002 02:51 PM

What does the stationary movement mean for the future hook-up with the front? Anyone have an idea?

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Brett
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: marco
      #6159 - Mon Oct 14 2002 03:01 PM

I am with Dave on this one. Its still getting sheared...its in an environment where its likely going to move quickly sometime soon...Number 1, its not going to get above TS status, if that, and Number 2, its going to miss So. Fla by a longshot to the east. In fact, on the last few loops I see all the convection going east already, even if the center is exposed and stationary. I don't know, but my guess is a center reform to further east, a pickup in forward speed, and crossing eastern cuba out into the bahamas as a minial TS. So. Fla. shield still intact.

--------------------
South Florida


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Stuart Dave
Unregistered




Re: Golly Kyle
      #6160 - Mon Oct 14 2002 05:07 PM

I still maintain 60's in SE fla before 10/15 is unusual. I don't recall this occuring in the last 5 years and is evidence of a very cold front. I forgot to mention the main reason that this area will not be hit is because I fertilized everything Sunday based on the rain predictions as we have received almost none since early Sept here. This evenings forecast for rain in the next 2 days has begun to plummett from what it was earlier.

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Bill
Unregistered




Temp Tangents
      #6161 - Mon Oct 14 2002 05:19 PM

Sorry Dave-

Temps in the 60s in October are not so unusual, even in Stuart. I was there in 99 and temps were in the 60s almost every night in Mid October, right there on the coast. In fact, 60s as far s as WPB too. And no particular mention of it being unusual.

We are going to have 50s up here in Tally, and the last few yrs we have had them in SEPT as storms went by to the east, not so unusual...no new records.

Now, re: Marco to be.... no one knows where it is going or how strong. It is virtually stationary, none of the models called that. And , it is exposed, but shear should let up. A narrow ridge is holding it down. Will the front miss it, not likely, BUT, it could allow it to come further north and west and be stronger.

TWT.

IHS,

Bill


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
never cut and dry
      #6162 - Mon Oct 14 2002 05:38 PM

silly thing is drifting around west of the convection.. yeah, why not. until the center reforms or until it starts moving, all bets are off. now running too late to cleanly, probably get dragged along into the bahamas. note that the ridging to the north is holding, and if this continues we may get a meanderer that stays south of things and takes its time.
tropical systems never do what theyre told.
HF 2135z14october


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: never cut and dry
      #6163 - Mon Oct 14 2002 05:39 PM

insert word after cleanly--PHASE

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Temp Tangents
      #6164 - Mon Oct 14 2002 05:42 PM

No those temps aren't unusual, at least not record breakers. However, onto TD #14, after complimenting Stewart earlier, I don't know what's up with the latest obs on the TD. It looks terrible IMO, with the closed circulation looking poorer at 21Z than at the time of the 5PM advisory. IMO this TD is dissipating; it certainly isn't moving. I don't get it at all. Any thoughts out there??

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Temp Tangents
      #6166 - Mon Oct 14 2002 06:10 PM

Well, my 8:00 am call that this wasn't Marco is still alive. But this isn't the noreaster going up the coast either, because that monster is getting it's act together south of Pensacola. Some models did show the energy of TD14 getting pulled in with this other low off of NE FLA/GA and making a mess up the coast. We may be seeing that happen, at least to a point.
I just don't see TD14/Marco being anything more than a lopsided rainmaker.

Here in Jacksonville we have rain moving from all directions at us, yet our 60% chance of rain got us a sunny 82 degree day. The cold front is not supposed to get by us until tomorrow(Tuesday) night, with lows in the 50's Wed/Thur.
Must mean the Jacksonville Fair is in town. Yep. Starts Friday.

Joe in JAX


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Temp Tangents
      #6167 - Mon Oct 14 2002 08:27 PM

Normal Lows for 10-15
Melbourne 67
Vero Beach 69
WPB 71
Source NWS

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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