evergladesangler
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It's interesting the the has such a large northerly move before it goes eastward to the peninsula, given that it is stationary now. It if pivots more ENE that could greatly affect it's track. The 12Z has a Keys trajectory and that model has been pretty good with this storm.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
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laureg
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
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Quoting this part of the update:
"...the motion of the storm combined with the pressure gradient may create a unique situation over Florida regardless of where the actual system makes landfall..."
Sorry if I missed it somewhere, but how does this make a unique situation over Florida? Just interested and curious...
We are ready here at our house...I feel like a reg'lar expert at this point. We will put up shutters probably tomorrow late afternoon or so. Grateful to be on this side of the water...we have friends in Sanibel who are already headed for an unscheduled vacay in NC for a few days.
I love that real time link you all posted. It is spectacular to see that cold front just sort of trucking along to meet up with the storm. This is a very interesting one to watch, for sure. Thanks to everyone for the great info.
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Lee-Delray
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I disagree with the statement if your north of that you should be fine. First, its only a line; a line that could move 100 miles in either direction. Second, where the storm and the front collide will be an area of very heavy rain and 50+/- mile winds. Third, also because of this collision, there will be an increase in the chance for tornados.
I would say that all of us in Florida need to be prepared!!!!
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
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Loc: BROWARD
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Max Mayfield to brief us in 15 minutes @11:45 TV time.
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TinaB
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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Quote:
last night was a shift to the north. today back to where they've said. Ft.myers/naples area . If you live north of that you should be fine unless something unexpected happens.
Yea...that's just the problem with hurricanes, they often like to do the unexpected  Personally if I lived north of the Ft. Myers/Naples area (and I do) I would not rest easy until this thing had made landfall or after (and I won't) I think too many residents of the Tampa area are way to complacent when it comes to these things. Let people laugh...I'm stocked up, I'm watching regularly. I check in here at least once an hour. My hurricane shutters are out and ready to go up. My pet carriers will be assembled and ready to secure my cats by the end of today. People here (in Tampa/St. Pete) can laugh if they want, but I'd rather be safe than sorry. I still think it's way to early to tell just where it will make landfall and I'm not buying the confidence of a sure extreme S florida landfall.
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Margie
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
looks like it is just north of Cancun.
No, it isn't moving much. It is very hard to see the center now because of all the convection, but it is still to the SW of Cancun, and if you go to the wv loop, and toggle between the 1245Z and 1315Z frames you'll see the center of circulation. First get positioned on the right frame, then zoom in three times. Above it, the purple moves to the left, and below it, to the right. It is a little closer to Cancun now than Cozumel.
Note: the movement from the loop still showed an oscillation! I was a little surprised. I thought once it got over land that would stop...I think it probably has dampened now to the point where it will be hard to see.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sat Oct 22 2005 03:41 PM)
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indianapolis
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Quote:
last night was a shift to the north. today back to where they've said. Ft.myers/naples area . If you live north of that you should be fine unless something unexpected happens.
If you simply follow the little black line you would be correct. However, I would rather wait until she exits the coast and starts moving and has a couple model runs before I'm comfortable with landfall vicinity. Even then it will have a large area of error.
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collegemom
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Loc: Central Arkansas
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Right on the nose folks. I thought 11AM might give us some info. Best to wait and plan for many possibilities.
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Quote:
Quote:
last night was a shift to the north. today back to where they've said. Ft.myers/naples area . If you live north of that you should be fine unless something unexpected happens.
If you simply follow the little black line you would be correct. However, I would rather wait until she exits the coast and starts moving and has a couple model runs before I'm comfortable with landfall vicinity. Even then it will have a large area of error.
Amen!!!!
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Jamiewx
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Sun Sentinel is carrying it live
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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nicolew
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Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
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OK - looking for some advice - I live in Miami and my parents live in northern Palm Beach county. I have no shutters for my condo here and during my area suffered serious tree damage and was without electricity for a week. My parents live in a brand new house in an area with very few trees and they have hurricane-glass windows. I stayed for because I thought I'd be fine and ended up having a terrible time! Last year during I went to my parents and while the area suffered damage, they fared really well. Am I crazy to load up myself and the dogs and head up to Palm Beach and put myself closer to where it looks like the storm will come in? Just looking for advice!
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laureg
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Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
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Right you are...remember last year, was it that was supposed to go to Tampa and hit Port Charlotte instead...and we came to your neck of the woods to get away from Francis and got clobbered there anyway with tornados, flooding and I believe 70-75 mph winds. was supposed to come up our way, and we had a beautiful, sunny day off from work, while Miami took a hit...So it's just better to be prepared no matter where you are. Plus, its nice to have some feeling of being in control of at least something when you have no control over any of it...
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Yes, there will be no point in trying to narrow down the FL landfall at all, until 11am Sun or 5pm Sun (NHC disc).
There is an extremely good reason why has not made any changes to the FL forecast track over all these days; there was no reason to do so. They know how to pick a winner (track) at the beginning and then they stick with that until there is absolutely some specific reason to change it. They always have clear logical reasoning to back up their course changes. Can you imagine what people would think if they changed their forecast track with every advisory? Oh, at 5am it's going here, at 11am 20 miles to the east, at 5pm 30 miles to the west...just because the models fluctuate; people would be so confused they wouldn't know what to think, and no one would have any faith in what they were predicting.
I couldn't believe it when yesterday aft Steve Gregory announced a specific point of landfall in FL and an intensity level at landfall. Being a met he should know better than to cave into playing that game.
It might be a little different if we were talking about a FL landfall where a very small portion of the coastline was going to get obliterated like what is happening in Cozumel and Cancun (I am so glad nailed that prediction in time for Mex to take action to evac as many as possible). What is going to happen in FL is likely just the opposite; a very very large area getting affected by TS force winds. It will not be so critical to know the exact location of lanfall.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sat Oct 22 2005 03:55 PM)
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evergladesangler
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12Z looks like it's moved north to Port Charlotte area.
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TinaB
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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Exactly...to get a good idea of wind swath forecast (and keep in mind this is just forecast, this could change too) you can check out 's website
SFWMD Forecast Products
Direct link to the wind swath forecast
72 Hr Windswath
If this one is close then almost ALL of the peninsula will feel something from this storm. Quite franky it's the spawning of tornadoes that worries me most.
edited to change SWFWMD to (I'm so use to SWFMD it comes naturally)
Edited by TinaB (Sat Oct 22 2005 03:55 PM)
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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can someone post the gist of what Mayfield said?
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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TampaSu
Registered User
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
last night was a shift to the north. today back to where they've said. Ft.myers/naples area . If you live north of that you should be fine unless something unexpected happens.
Yea...that's just the problem with hurricanes, they often like to do the unexpected Personally if I lived north of the Ft. Myers/Naples area (and I do) I would not rest easy until this thing had made landfall or after (and I won't) I think too many residents of the Tampa area are way to complacent when it comes to these things. Let people laugh...I'm stocked up, I'm watching regularly. I check in here at least once an hour. My hurricane shutters are out and ready to go up. My pet carriers will be assembled and ready to secure my cats by the end of today. People here (in Tampa/St. Pete) can laugh if they want, but I'd rather be safe than sorry. I still think it's way to early to tell just where it will make landfall and I'm not buying the confidence of a sure extreme S florida landfall.
Tina - I'm a Tampa resident also, and I happen to agree with you. We are ready to implement our plan... if necessary. Remember Charlie? It missed us at the last minute. That could happen again, but in the opposite direction. Bottom line - we don't know until we know - and that's not until after it's come and gone! Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst... 
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flarrfan
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Loc: Spring Hill FL
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Anybody else see what I'm seeing in the IR loop? Looks to me like the COC is starting that inland loop-de-loop that those "crazy" models predicted on Wednesday.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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One key factor regarding how much may try to reintenisfy is how well the inner eyewall feature holds up. There is a large outer eyewall evident on the radar which still seems to be in prety good shape, while the inner eyewall seems to have contracted and may struggle to maintain itself for very long. If the inner wind core maintains itself as it emerges over water, it may try to increase more rapidly (though an would probably ensue shortly after that given the outer eyewall). If all that is left is the large outer eyewall when it emerges offshore, the storm would less prone to rapid intensity changes.
I recall the "No-Name" event of 1993 very well... it is now a famous case study for meteorologists. There wasn't anything tropical about that at all... it was basically a mid-latitude baroclinic system on steroids. This scenario will be different. There definitely could be an enhanced risk of tornados with this system, but the details are still unclear on exactly where and when (forecasting hurricanes is a piece of cake compared to forecasting the probability of tornados 3 days out). A lot depends on how strong the system is when approaching Florida and whether it is still generating outer bands or not.
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evergladesangler
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Quote:
Anybody else see what I'm seeing in the IR loop? Looks to me like the COC is starting that inland loop-de-loop that those "crazy" models predicted on Wednesday.
To me it looks like she it totally stationary now. What will determine landfall in FL is how she pivots off the land.
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