scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Well looks like the NWS service in Tampa and Miami agree with what I said..and again, I wont know forsure until maybe even Sunday morning.. they even mentioned the storm conditions ( even if it stayed near FtMyers) of TS winds near TampaBay and Huricane force winds just south of there due to the expansion of the windfield......again , we dont know forsure yet. Any jog N in the models will bring it near the Bay...For now... Sarasota or Charlotte counties looks decent.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Hugh, In my non-professional (but somewhat experienced) opinion, that's the starter
That will get her moving, the initial pop-out and turns, the other trough will be the accelerator
That's the forecast, certainly... I just don't know if it will play out.
Looking at the IR loop... it appears that even though Wlima won't emerge off the coast officially for a few more hours probably, the eyewall is already beginning to reform, and it's gradually getting the doughnut shape to it again. Rapid intensification could be the order of the day when it is fully into the GOM.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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This will be a long post will try to keep it as short as possible. This is a link to NWS Tampa Bay Area( there are more to be found for other areas in the state).
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/html/tbw/
Here is a link to my area (just to show the info available) - Pasco County.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.ph...FL&site=tbw
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.ph...23&site=tbw
The info contained on these links is invaluable. The info will also update (change) as the situation warrants. All you need to do is check. STOP asking all these poor people on this forum to tell you what will happen in your area. Check with the official source.
With the main link you can access radar, forecast discussions and the tabular forecast (hour by hour outlook).
Hope this info helps those that are stressing. It helped me tons last year and was almost exactly the conditions we received during the storms.
My best wishes to all. Peace. 
Dotty
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
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Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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given its 2 pm position. How far is it from emerging back out over water?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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VIPIR is a pretty reliable model that they run...last year they ran it with all 3 storms and they were almost dead-on. I know that they are concerned about the rainfall because of the cold front/tc clashing together, causing severe weather and rain, and that's probably where it will merge...so that's why they have most of the rain even in that area.
Only a couple more days to go and we will know for sure!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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Quote:
...Tampa media ran their nifty "VIPIR"- and I know it's probably not designed for hurricane prediction, but I couldn't help but notice something. The has 's eye landfall slightly north of official track (not Naples like , somewhere around Ft Myers), HOWEVER, the big rain event appeared to be in the north-northeast quadrant of , along the I-4 corridor from Tampa, up through Orlando, even with moving thru at speed.
I've watched Channel 8's for two hurricane seasons and it appears that when the storms get closer to us it is pretty accurate. I remember it was showing that change in direction for earlier than any other model, and it was right on as far as the strange jogs that both Jeanne and took when they were over our area. Additionally, this year I noticed that early on it was showing as being farther east (closer to where it landed) when TPC was showing it more west.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Ill post more later tonight....anyways cya guys....RDIETCH ...AKA Ralph..LOL.........................
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ShelleyMcD
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: SRQ
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If I'm using Google Earth/the USDA distance finder/basic math all correctly:
at 2 mph and blessed with a fairly straight path (like that'll happen with ), it looks like it's almost 10+ hours from the 2 o'clock til it's over water again?!? Yikes! But I think the official track has it over water before 7 pm tonight.
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Self-Confessed Control Freak
(I know I can't control what will happen, but I can control how much I understand about it!)
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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A few thoughts...
My reasoning for the path of the storm broke down when the storm decided to drift onto land. I'll be the first to admit my forecast and reasoning did not pan out. But it was a reasonable position to take.
I mention this because people are getting a little snippy in here. This is NOT an exact science. People will get things right at times, people will get it wrong at times. if there is sound reasonining behind it, then please, do not disparage their logic or thought process.
If there is an underlying agenda behind their reasonining, then by all means, notify a moderator to keep an eye on them. If you want to ask them in private about it, that's fine as well. But when there is a (at the time) major hurricane, that could threaten the florida coast, people will become a little more... how shall we say, short tempered and excitable. Don't succumb to the temptation to react or overreact to what other people post.
We have a chatroom. That chatroom is great for people to just come in and ask questions. I fully expect people to come into the chatroom over the next day or two and relax and chat with each other.
Anyone who thinks tampa, or the keys, or anywhere is in the clear, may I remind you that the average margin of error for the 72 hour forecast is 90 miles? that's their average, that means sometimes they're closer to hitting it, somtimes they're further from hitting it.
Now, let's concentrate on what matters the bloody hurricanes!
Speaking of which, why don't they have the other floater over TD 25 (25???? how in the world are we up to 25???)
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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The following is from the NWS MLB AFD
FINALLY...IT IS IMPORTANT TO REALIZE THAT ALL OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
LIES IN THE TRACK ERROR CONE. IF THERE IS A DEVIATION TO THE
FORECAST TRACK IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE TO THE LEFT (OR NORTH) THAN
TO THE RIGHT (SOUTH).
Full AFD
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
Edited by Jamiewx (Sat Oct 22 2005 07:21 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Wilma is very close to being back over water.Now we will see if she gets stronger.They seem even more sure now that it will be mainly be a South Florida event.Everyone in the cone needs to watch it,But all the news I see says it should be South Forida.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Sat Oct 22 2005 07:21 PM)
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Quote:
Wilma is very close to being back over water.Now we will see if she gets stronger.They seem even more sure now that it will be mainly be a South Florida event.
From the AFD out of Melbourne
DURING THIS TIME...WILMA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A TRANSITION TO
A HYBRID/EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT FEELS THE EFFECTS OF STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM MID LATITUDE TROUGH. AS A RESULT...WIND FIELDS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND MUCH IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
given its 2 pm position. How far is it from emerging back out over water?
The center appears to be coming off the northeast coast now. She won't diminish to anything lower than she is now. Hard to tell, but looks like a slight increase in forward speed to the north the last couple of frames.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
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RJB
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Look at the last portion of the IR loop, it appears to me that she's winding back up again...better outflow and becoming more symetrical.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
...but I'm not saying it's heading towards Tampa
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
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Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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one more stupid question. I heard that when a storm converges with a front, the storm tends to slow the fronts progress and even stall it. Is this true?
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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ACOE was just on FoxNews disucssing Lake O and they are convinced it will not be compromised so much as say NO. The indication is that drainage will happen rapidly and they are sdo concerned as to begin early drainage. We'll see, Broward does not look so good already?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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native
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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 AHH...wind field get bigger!?! Good Lord...she's already got a huge windfield! I personally don't think there's any part of our great state that won't feel some sort of effects from her. (well maybe the extreme western panhandle has a better chance of little to no effects.)
I'm surprised that no one has mentioned what I'm about to mention: I'm ready to get this over with cause I can't wait to get some of that COOLER WEATHER! Forcast here where I live for Tuesday is high of 74 and low of 58!! WOO HOO! It'll be nice to have a little reprive from the heat & humidity.
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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Amen to that Native!
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Actually, I believe I saw/heard of the turn last year first from Steve Jervey/Jen Hill, and nobody else had mentioned it, may have missed it though. to me seems to do a pretty good job for track
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 71
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You can see the eye here is partially offshore and it looks to be slowly drifting north.
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB...(Animacion).gif
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