StormHound
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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The radar images seem to be old, or something strange has happened. Anyone know of any other radar sites?
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Good question...I think it's all going to be a matter of timing...one thing I did notice was that the area to the west of seems to be getting pushed back, which is allowing the outflow from to expand. And it does appear as if she is just about to exit the peninsula. Hmmm...what if this whole thing reverses, and the northerly movement is faster than they are thinking and the move to the NE is slower?
Now, there's a stumper for ya. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indianapolis
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It says at the top it was updated at 8:39! That's 15 minutes. It's been updating well since I started watch this early a.m. I've done a google search for more sites but they all give the same one.
Updated Link
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad%2dcanc.jpg
Edited by emackl (Sat Oct 22 2005 09:20 AM)
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Southern4sure
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Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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I live in southern Pasco Co, just north of Tampa. This is the first I have heard about all the tornadoes and such. Now Im beginning to worry about what to expect from the two fronts meeting.
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collegemom
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Loc: Central Arkansas
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Quote:
Good question...I think it's all going to be a matter of timing...one thing I did notice was that the area to the west of seems to be getting pushed back, which is allowing the outflow from to expand. And it does appear as if she is just about to exit the peninsula. Hmmm...what if this whole thing reverses, and the northerly movement is faster than they are thinking and the move to the NE is slower?
Now, there's a stumper for ya.
I don't believe these fronts are strong enough to move it east as quickly as first predicted. I see more movement north before movement east.
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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Colleen A.
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What exactly do you mean, Guppie? That the cold front is not going to reach as far south as they were predicting? My eyes are tired...words work better for me right now, LOL.
Oh...and it does appear that it IS just about to exit the peninsula, does it not?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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SEFL
Registered User
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Quote:
Very simple Forcast the longer its over Land the more south it goes.
With this in mind i have not seen much movement lets hope it stays that way for awhile.
"THE LONGER
THAT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...THE CHANCES BECOME GREATER
FOR A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS INDICATED BY SOME GUIDANCE. " This is partial quote from 5am discussion. How does your comment square with this?
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funky
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Well here in St Pete I am only planning on brining in the hanging plants, everything else stays where it is. I honestly do not think the winds are going to be that bad here.
down here in 34202 (bradenton/sarasota) and thinking the same thing... i have a large gas grill out on the lanai with the pool equipment and about 12 plants in clay pots. i know the plants will need to come in, but dont' know about the grill. might do it just to be safe. if this thing shifts just slightly north (and it looks like it could since the storm is ahead of schedule into the GOM) we could have cat 1 or 2 winds, which would suck big time.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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CocoCrk
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Loc: Coconut Creek, FL
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On a lighter note....TD25 has been born....first advisory at 11AM...models look to take it over Hispaniola and out to sea...we can only hope...back to regularly scheduled programming.
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Hugh
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Quote:
Very simple Forcast the longer its over Land the more south it goes.
With this in mind i have not seen much movement lets hope it stays that way for awhile.
"THE LONGER
THAT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...THE CHANCES BECOME GREATER
FOR A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS INDICATED BY SOME GUIDANCE. " This is partial quote from 5am discussion. How does your comment square with this?
Uh... that's EXACTLY what was said. A more ENE track wil result in a more south track than a NNE or NE track.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Quote:
Quote:
Very simple Forcast the longer its over Land the more south it goes.
With this in mind i have not seen much movement lets hope it stays that way for awhile.
"THE LONGER
THAT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...THE CHANCES BECOME GREATER
FOR A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS INDICATED BY SOME GUIDANCE. " This is partial quote from 5am discussion. How does your comment square with this?
Well, your both right..LOL! If it moves off sooner it will go NE . Longer it stays the more likely ENE therefore a further south Fl strike.
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Cycloneye11
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Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE (AL252005) ON 20051022 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051022 1200 051023 0000 051023 1200 051024 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.8N 67.5W 16.8N 69.9W 18.1N 72.1W 20.0N 74.0W
BAMM 15.8N 67.5W 17.1N 69.9W 18.4N 71.8W 20.1N 73.8W
A98E 15.8N 67.5W 16.5N 70.0W 17.3N 72.2W 18.9N 74.2W
LBAR 15.8N 67.5W 16.9N 69.7W 18.5N 71.6W 20.5N 73.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 33KTS 38KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051024 1200 051025 1200 051026 1200 051027 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 75.4W 33.8N 71.3W 43.7N 53.4W 37.4N 25.8W
BAMM 23.2N 75.3W 32.3N 72.0W 41.4N 56.2W 39.8N 29.0W
A98E 22.4N 74.8W 28.2N 70.9W 34.7N 59.6W 37.7N 37.4W
LBAR 23.5N 74.1W 37.9N 66.0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 51KTS 54KTS 51KTS 34KTS
DSHP 43KTS 45KTS 43KTS 25KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 67.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 65.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 62.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Yep TD25 is born.Will Alpha be born here and make history?
Edited by Cycloneye11 (Sat Oct 22 2005 09:34 AM)
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SEFL
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Uh... that's EXACTLY what was said. A more ENE track wil result in a more south track than a NNE or NE track.
I wasn't questioning it, I just wasn't understanding it, and since I live at 26.8N 80.2W I am very interesting in where will eventually head. Already have 1/2 the shutters up. But 39 windows are a bit of work.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
On a lighter note....TD25 has been born....first advisory at 11AM...models look to take it over Hispaniola and out to sea...we can only hope...back to regularly scheduled programming.
And on a related note... looking at the IR loop... is remarkably still well organized. Cold cloud tops are returning to the east and southwest eyewall. Unless there is a lot of shear I don't see, we could have a cat 4 again very soon after the eye emerges into the GOM. I'm sure the shear will make that intensification limited longer-term, but the shear will be further north.
As for T.D. 25... It definately does look like a fish spinner right now after it goes over Hispaniola, but that could change this far out... if it even survives the trek across Hispaniola, which is not a given. The people of Haiti will be likely be able to say they have been hit by the first ever Greek tropical storm, though 
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Remember one thing: they are counting on the cold front digging pretty deep into the GOM causing that ENE motion. I'm not seeing it dig that far south yet, so this could all be for naught.
The weather tends to do whatever it wants...no matter what the models say...and with this system, I think we have to keep a closer eye on what the satellites are showing us than what the models are showing us.
We are getting close to end of the Yucatan Peninsula trip. Then we can start to get a good grip on what to expect after that...I hope.
Now I have to go find my coffee which I lost somewhere between the computer and the kitchen. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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This may be a little off-topic, but I hope mods leave it up for a little while so people can read it.
I work for an insurance company. One of the best things you can do now to prepare for is to find your homeowners policy and read it. Find out what your hurricane deductible is. Know your insurance company's claims hotline. Find out what your coverages are, especially for things like mold and fungus. Many homeowners policies do not cover flood damage, but you should already have a separate flood policy if one is required.
After , call your company and make your claim. Take pictures of any damages if you can. Save *all* your receipts for repairs. If you went through a broker, do not call them - this will only add time to your claim, and most brokers will only tell you to call the company direct anyway. Here are some claims phone numbers of major insurance companies.
The Hartford - 800-243-5860
Citizens - 866-411-2742
National Flood - 800-759-8656
Fireman's Fund - 888-347-3428
Above all, know what you are covered for, and what you can expect with your claim. Your best defense here is knowledge.
Edited by MissBecky (Sat Oct 22 2005 09:46 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Uh... that's EXACTLY what was said. A more ENE track wil result in a more south track than a NNE or NE track.
I wasn't questioning it, I just wasn't understanding it, and since I live at 26.8N 80.2W I am very interesting in where will eventually head. Already have 1/2 the shutters up. But 39 windows are a bit of work.
Ah, sorry for the confusion then. Well, look at it this way, if you've already got half of them up, you might as well put them all up. We don't know where will eventually head, and we won't know for a couple of days likely, but better to be safe than sorry.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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evergladesangler
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With this loop it looks like the COC just wobbled west if it's the brighter yellow area with the red east and south of it:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
I might add this is the further the COC has been from water to this point if I'm seeing it right.
Edited by evergladesangler (Sat Oct 22 2005 09:42 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Remember one thing: they are counting on the cold front digging pretty deep into the GOM causing that ENE motion. I'm not seeing it dig that far south yet, so this could all be for naught.
I completely agree. I just don't know what the impact of the lack of the front digging down deeply will mean.
Okay... I just overlayed the front on the water vapor loop. The orientation of the front, if the map is accurate, is not what it appears on the WV loop. At least not to my eyes, unless I look REALLY close and then I do see it at the end. If the orientation does not change, the front will have to dig very deep for the official forecast to hold. That may happen, but if it doesn't...
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Oct 22 2005 09:48 AM)
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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I agree with you Hugh, I really expected her to get knocked down more. Especially the length of time the eye has been inland. Could be due to the flat topography and the fact that 4/5 ths of the storm is still over warm water.
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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