ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Just in from ,Playa del Carmen is destroyed.I don't see ANYTHING that takes the storm center near Tampa.If anything she is turning NE now,and that would mean a more southerly path.Why are some,trying to will it to Tampa?
They aren't trying to will it to Tampa. They are just "what if she does move more toward the NE than ENE."
No one wants to Get Hit. Or even a near miss from ..~danielw
Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 01:59 AM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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That should come up in your WMP, you can then right click and select Full Screen
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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This was issued 20 minutes after the Tampa AFD.
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
550 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 (edited~danielw)
...TORNADO IMPACTS...
LATE SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES APPROACHING FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAVE A GREATER RISK OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND FAST FORWARD SPEED AS IS ANTICIPATED WITH . ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH OUTER RAINBANDS SUNDAY AND THEN TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE THE HIGHEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CENTRAL RAINBANDS OF EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THE ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WARNINGS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND TAKE THEM SERIOUSLY.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HLSMLB&max=10
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HLSTBW&max=10
This is from the Miami NWS Hazardoud Weather Outlook at 602PM EDT tonight.
TORNADOES: LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HWOMFL&max=10
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 89
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Quote:
Quote:
Genesis, it wasn't supposed to turn to the northeast till early tomorrow morning, so turning early now means it will go further sount
No...further North because the front (which was "protecting" the wc and nw penninsula)is now retreating to the North which would allow to take a more Northerly path.
Haven't heard from the mets in awhile...probably pretty busy
The winds in the gulf are as expected.Just talked to a met locally here since i read this post and he said not true the front and winds are about where it is suppose to be so take these post for what they are.
Edited by Rdietch (Sun Oct 23 2005 01:59 AM)
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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OMG!!!! From alone... or from other storms as well?????? 
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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What?
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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The 6 hour trend is the result of the rather large wobbles (or errors in my plotting of the center). I believe the 1 hour is accurate and the 4 hour is indicitive of the overall trend at present.
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 89
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Quote:
Ya you beat me to the post as how does it turning early to the NE make it a Sarasota Tampa storm?
I really have to bite my tounge and just be quite before i get banned for what i say but you got the idea.
Also there are no watchs for above Sarasota other then Tropical Storm the Hurricane watch is Sarasota south ok.
Not sure if you are referring to the Southern Peninsula, but Indian River, Brevard, Orange and Osceola counties are under a Hurricane Watch, and they are north of sarasota.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Remember that the storm will cross the state in a NE fashion, so for the East coast counties NE of Sarasota to have warnings is not an anomoly. It is to be expected.
As for the NE turn leading towards a further south track. In theory, perhaps, but the reality is that there are so many variables in play here that the early turn alone is not cause to expect the models to suddenly point back towards points south.
As others have said, the reason the hasn't really expanded or changed their track is simple: until she left the Yucatan, there was really no way to have confidence in a forecast. Now that she's leaving the Yucatan, everything needed to get better solutions is going to be coming into play. By the 5pm tomorrow, they should have landfall pegged within 20 miles... maybe.
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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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Jamiewx and all: Having lived in FL for many years and having the rest of my family living there now, I can tell you the comment that the threat of tornados is nil from Tampa Bay northward seems just ridiculous to me. First all, FL gets tornados from garden variety rainstorms--some associated with passing cold fronts as well as the typical summer convection. I experienced one in Winter Park on Christmas Eve associated ewith a frontal passage. But it is also true that hurricane-spawned tornados tend to be in the outer rain bands as I understand it and that is just what is likely to pass over north central FL. Granted, it may not be the worst area (the bands in the forward-right quadrant) but it will surely be capable of spawning tornados. And subsequent posts have confirmed that other bulletin and predictions include a serious threat of tornados.
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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Ya know...we are NOT trying to WILL it to Tampa! I am going to mention 1 more time. Some models ARE trending to the North and that does mean something to us... as WAS Tampa's storm, but cought Punta Gorda totally off guard... I will NEVER forget that as a person who had to pack up their entire life and returned home within 3 hours to see that masd A HUGE HOOK TO THE RIGHT! You must understand the frustration of the people in our AREA AS WELL AS OTHERS! I think that people have a right to be concerned in Tampa..........
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I hate to ask on the board. But please keep any personal remarks, or jousting, off of the forum.
If you feel the need to debate a post.
Please Use the PM feature.
There are, on average, 700 people on the site. they come here for information and learning. Not for the jousting you can find on the TV shows.
Probations  are Free to those who wish to continue.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Tornado Warning
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1004 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
* AT 958 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF
CALOOSA...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF INDIANTOWN...MOVING EAST
AT 5 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CALOOSA
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mfl&wwa=tornado%20warning
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 02:13 AM)
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Quote:
Tornado Warning
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...Hurricane+Watch
corrected link
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mlb&wwa=tornado%20warning
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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Tammster
Registered User
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Posts: 5
Loc: West Palm Beach, FL
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The emergency broadcasting system just broke into the baseball game to tell us in PB County that a tornado warning is in effect until 11pm in north central PBC. They said a tornado may be on the ground near Caloosa (off Beeline between Northlake & Jupiter).
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Posts: 125
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Quote:
Genesis, it wasn't supposed to turn to the northeast till early tomorrow morning, so turning early now means it will go further sount
The front was supposed to extend into the gulf and be down around Tampa, depressing basically out from the Panhandle well southward into the gulf and extending over Tampa. With a ENE axis and the front over Tampa, it would basically insure that the storm would not come up that far north.
Instead it is lifting out and the TAIL of it is over Tampa. By tomorrow morning at this rate it will be nowhere near there.
The frontal boundary would have effectively protected anything near and to the north of it from a direct impact, although along and south of the boundary you'd get NASTY conditions from the interaction.
With the front gone - and I expect it will not be present over the peninsula by the morning - that protection is likewise gone.
The south end of Tampa's inlet appears to be the northern end of the Hurricane Watch area, and the cone extends north of Tampa to roughly New Port Richie.
www.weather.com if you scroll down the first box to select it; the former I get from the Unisys site that has all the fixed GOES image loops available.)
I understand that people don't WANT it to go that way (nobody wants it to come their way - and I have no particular bias as to where I'd "like" to see it go - other than out to sea and die somewhere....) but if you're in a watch or warning area it would be a good idea to be prepared!
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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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Well -- everyone is worried as appropriate -- but we have time to prepare and it is unlikely that will restrenghten to a Cat 5 or anything close
So compared to those unfortunate folks living in the Yucatan we will be OK
At least we know it is coming -- those who face earthquakes/volcanos etc do not have time to prepare and get out of the way-- so let's focus on preparations and keep the posts civil
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Tornados maybe the big story from this storm.Had one 4 miles from me at 2am this morning.And it will only get worse.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Sun Oct 23 2005 02:16 AM)
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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Holy crap, that cell is about 10 miles west of where I'm sitting right now. There's been some absolutely stunning lightning all evening, guess I shouldn't be surprised.
Good thing my house is already shuttered 
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[witty phrase here]
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