Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Miami, Florida
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Hurricane warnings up for most of the watch area at 11:00 !!
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
Edited by Tropics Guy (Sat Oct 22 2005 10:44 PM)
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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Quote:
Hurricane warnings up for most of the watch area at 11:00 !!
TG
Ok north Tampa is now out of the cone the track is the same so peace for a few hours i hope  max winds same everything same but the watchs are now warnings which was expected.
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willw
Weather Watcher
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5am tampa will be out of the cone... tampa is barely in the cone now.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Warning? interesting. guessing the time frame has shifted forward. Was not expecting the upgrades until Morning.
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Jim
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tpratch
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Loc: Maryland
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Watches mean hurricane conditions are likely within 36 hours.
Warnings mean hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours.
Changing watches to warnings is part of the game and to be expected.
Updated the graphic but since the center was almost due-west from the hour before, we can chalk it up to lots of wobbling while reforming the center. Dropped the heading info accordingly though.
From the discussion:
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
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abyrd
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Loc: apopka
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According to the lastest track, sustained winds in Orlando of 56 mph at 8 a.m. on Monday morning.
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engicedave
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OK, time for my question.
I'm in Central Palm Beach Co.
I'm going to get it, without question.
I measured on a computer map, and the shoreline due west is about 100mi
If the hurricane field is 100mi from center, and I am 100mi from the west coast, would that mean that if it lands with a CAT 2 ("landing" means eye coming ashore, right?), that would mean that I would have a CAT 2 here.
Correct?
Or is it reasonable to assume that some strength with be lost due to land friction?
Wow....Florida seems so small at the moment
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Not exactly all watches are warnings.. Please read..
Hurricane Warning is in effect for all of
the Florida Keys...including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay. A
Hurricane Warning is also now in effect along the Florida West
Coast from Longboat Key southward...and along the Florida East
Coast from Jupiter Inlet southward...including Lake Okeechobee.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect along the Florida East Coast
north of Jupiter Inlet to Titusville. Hurricane warnings will
likely be required for this area Sunday morning.
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the
Florida West Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the East Coast of
Florida from north of Titusville northward to Fernandina Beach.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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abyrd
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Loc: apopka
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First, hurricane force winds are expected to be only 75 miles to the east.
Second, the outer edges will only be that and get stronger as they get closer, I believe.
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TinaB
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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Quote:
OK, time for my question.
I'm in Central Palm Beach Co.
I'm going to get it, without question.
I measured on a computer map, and the shoreline due west is about 100mi
If the hurricane field is 100mi from center, and I am 100mi from the west coast, would that mean that if it lands with a CAT 2 ("landing" means eye coming ashore, right?), that would mean that I would have a CAT 2 here.
Correct?
Or is it reasonable to assume that some strength with be lost due to land friction?
Wow....Florida seems so small at the moment
They way I understand it is the highest winds are usually concentrated right around the eye wall. So if hurricane force winds extend out 100 miles from the center then a location 100 mi from the center would experiences winds of at least 74 MPH but not necessarily to Cat 2 strength. Make sense?
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Loc: Osceola County
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Quote:
OK, time for my question.
I think you're misunderstanding -- the maximum winds, be they category 2 or 3, will be relatively close to the center (on the order of 10 miles or so). When they say hurricane force winds extend X miles, they mean that's how far away from the center minimal category 1 winds could be felt.
Now, it's more than possible that maintains category 2/3 status long enough inland to effect you with those stronger winds - Orlando saw that with last year (I think it made landfall as a 4, and was still a 3 over Orlando).
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[witty phrase here]
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engicedave
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Good point, lost my head for a moment
However, according to the local MET (Don Noe, Ch 10), the new forecast holds a 2 a lot longer and almost all the way across
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It means that you will most likely have winds of at least 74 MPH. As of the newest advisory, hurricane force winds (74 MPH+) extend 70 miles from the center. Some expansion is expected, though.
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Michael
PWS
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Quote:
With all the concentration on Florida, let me draw you toward something else the series of models has been consistently showing over the last several runs: a left hook into New England toward the middle of the week. Landfall for could be anywhere between Conneticut and Newfoundland, with the time-average of the models concentrating on Maine. Additionally, the attached intensity guidence indicates that hurricane force winds, possible as high as Category 2, may effect parts of New England.
Now you may continue with your obsessive-compulsive "where is it going to hit in Florida" discussion 
I brought this up a few days ago, and I know the is still showing this.
The is also showing tropical-storm force winds or better over essentially the ENTIRE state of Florida - including the Panhandle - at one time or another associated with 's passage, extending up the entire eastern seaboard as tracks NE. It also appears to show a clean miss on the surface front that is currently over Tampa extending up northward towards the NE US, with the storm instead riding up the trough behind it that is diving down from S. Dakoka (clearly visible on the WV.)
Its an interesting possibility. BTW, the looks to bring the storm itself in south of Naples with the Cat 1 windfield extending roughly to Sarasota on the north side. It also shows incredible baroclinic effects as accelerates off the east coast, including a small burst of Cat 4 winds when the storm is off Virginia. Fortunately, only fish (and any shipping interests unfortunate enough to be there at that time) would be affected by that.
A couple of days ago I was very concerned about this possibility and was posting that the "big story" on might not even BE in Florida, but rather further up the east coast. The first trough "miss" seemed to make this much less likely. But.... the continues to insist on it, and keeps finding an atmospheric structure that will cause it.
Looking at the Marine WX the hurricane watch officially extends to Longboat Key. This is north of Sarasota by about as far as it is south of the mouth of Tampa Bay. (I have a good friend who lives in Longboat Key - neither he or I want to see served upon him...... trust me on that.)
I remain concerned by the expected relatively rapid motion. Looking at the again it is prognosticating an impact in 30 hours from roughly now.... that's not much time if this storm takes "dead aim" on you, no matter where it goes......
Please stay alert folks.....
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Don't forget it's not just the Wind Speed.
It's how long the wind blows At That Speed.
A hurricane moving at 10 miles per hour will do much more damage than one moving at 20 miles per hour.
Here are two of the forecast wind fields. From Advisory # 31.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.0N 84.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 125SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.3N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Sorry, but there is no front over Tampa. It is in North Florida and not coming south until passes.
LINK
The air outside is very humid and heavy.
Edit: Just checked observations in north FL. Perry has 66% humidity and N wind. Lake City has 94% humidity and calm wind. The front is between those locations.
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Michael
PWS
Edited by MichaelA (Sat Oct 22 2005 11:09 PM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The New graphic for the 3 Day Cone is up.
Unless they have moved Tampa, FL since 4PM.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT24/AL2405W.gif
Tampa is still in the Northern side of the CONE.
Just barely...but it's inside the cone.
The Watches and Warnings will give you some kind of idea what to expect.
Allthough, having been through . The Inland Hurricane Watch and Warning really didn't justify her damage here. The Tornado warning that was issued just prior to 's Eyewall arriving, got more attention and was more relative to the damage.
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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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I know I have seen this question answered somewhere. And I will bet that there is a hurricanes for Dummies area that I could find this, but I am too tired and brain fried to look.
How do you convert Nautical miles to miles and knots to MPH
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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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I'm very surprised they didn't extend the hurricane warnings all the way up the East coast in the cone. I'm not a met but that seems illogical considering they are going to experience hurricane force winds. ??
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Major7
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
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knots times 1.15 equal miles per hour.
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My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005
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