jeangfl
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 19
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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I'm in Ft. Myers with reservations in Orlando for Sunday / Monday - does it look to anyone like we would be better off staying put? Thanks
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ILoveflorida
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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Pulling up the official track on main page, It looks to my untrained eye as if Hurricane is riding the west side of the official track. Maybe due north. Is the map and track acurate or an estimate of position? And if so, what are feelings of track ajustment ?
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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FYI, some friends of ours down in your area hedged their bets and got reservations in both Orlando and in Miami.
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charlottefl
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You need to look at your county's flood zone maps, if you live in a flood zone you don't have to leave your county just move to higher ground. Anything above 20 feet should be fine.
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Rdietch
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Looks to my untrained eyes everything weather wise with the storm is going NE and some dry air to the Southwest of it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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It appears to me that the COC is right over the forecast point
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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chase 22
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Loc: San Angelo, TX
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Quote:
Also people, lets not forget that will be interacting with a cold front, which will increase the threat of tornados north of the actual landfall.
Actually the cold front will help stabilize the atmosphere North of thus creating a less friendly environment for tornados. I know it's strnge, but when is weather not strange...
As for Pinellas County...I would prepare for a hurricane, but expect tropical storm conditions with a few gust close to (if not at) hurricane strength. REMEMBER! Tampa is not out of the cone nor is Orlando. There is still a fair chance that could pull more Northward and that would change everything.
I have looked everywhere and cannot find out anything about Pinellas County Schools on Monday. Does anybody know whether school is open or not?
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Matt
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Don't worry too much about the short-term motion with respect to the official track... the current motion is so slow that some deviation from the short-term track won't make much difference down the line. The orientation of the upper-level winds will ultimately determine where this hits Florida.
The latest is a little faster with the landfall in Florida and a little stronger with the low. The most significant change is that the 18Z brings a very intense or hybrid system into New England in 72 hours. The previous run kept it well off of the coast.
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jusforsean
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Broward County
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Here she goes again I think I just heard an update on channel 4 here in davie florida that said it seems the eye is well over open waters now a bit earlier than they expected and that it seems to have taken the ne trend but it could be a wobble they will see over the next few hrs.
This storm has an attitude problem! The threat of tornadoes scares me with this one with the hot meeting the cold and all. Guy on channel 7 keeps saying that this storm worries him he believes its going to strengthen prior to landfall. It appears the track has shifted a bit north so you think it will stay that way? Is it possible is this is a ne trend that it could shift the trach back south a bit? All guesses are on with this one I suppose we will really know when she makes landfall:) Luck to all be safe.....
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engicedave
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Loc:
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If you look at this
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Seems pretty clear that the CoC is offshore as well as the eye looks fairly defined already
Creepy
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Looked at that loop and looks like last frame has it going NE...could be just a wobble though.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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You're right about the cooler, more stable air north of the front not supporting tornadoes, but convective cells in the immediate vicinity of the frontal zone may have an enhanced risk or tornados, due to the increased low-level shear near the boundary, which may act more like a warm front or stationary front as the storm approaches. Anywhere from the frontal location and southward will have the greatest tornado risk. As SPC points out in their Day 2 outlook, the risk of tornadoes will increase sooner than it normally would with an approaching hurricane, thanks to the large wind field and increasing flow aloft, and may commence as early as tomorrow afternoon or evening.
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willw
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
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HAHA anyone in tampa watching wtvt 13? I forget name of the weather guy on.. but takes it through tampa and he played it off like it was below. and even seemed stunned/stuttering when he seen it . dont they look at this stuff before it's on tv?
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jusforsean
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Broward County
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LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE
A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING
WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13
TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA. THIS THREAT WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY...AND COULD BE SIGNIFICANT AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE
STATE.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The last recon fix indicated a NE movement as well. though that is likely just a wobble.
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
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Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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Pinellas county schools are anal. They will be the very last to close if at all.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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I know this is not the case, it would be nice, any Mets/Mods/Prof know what happened to this Micro shot, watch this LOL
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2005_TWENTY-FOUR/webManager/last24hrs.gif
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 947
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Just caught the end of that. Probably walking the fine line between supporting and what he sees. I'm not sure that is all that accurate either.
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Michael
PWS
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ShelleyMcD
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 14
Loc: SRQ
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I had to laugh-
Sarasota County EOC announced that tomorrow at 9 a.m. that there are four storm shelters opening - all of them schools.
http://204.193.113.203/ssDocuments/862/Storm%20Center/Media%20Releases/Wilma_alert_102205.pdf
At this point, Sarasota County Schools haven't announced anything, but common sense says that if the shelters are open Sunday, then there probably won't be classes Monday!
I couldn't find a listing for Pinellas being closed, but TBO has a good listing:
http://hurricane.weathercenter.com/
Then go to "Preparations by County"
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Self-Confessed Control Freak
(I know I can't control what will happen, but I can control how much I understand about it!)
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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Where does get its information? It was the system last year that made me stop watching one of our local channels here in Orlando. the local metkept talking about the track as if it was the only thinkg that had any validity - for Jeanne I think - He kept repeating that took it north along the east coast ad out of our area. I think it was new to the station at that point ans it was very much like watching a kid with a new toy. When we turned to the station that they used at the time for just broadcasting the local weather - all it was showing over and over was the track.
I think that for the most part all of thesse tools are a good thing, but in that case it gave out a lot of misinformation.
I also had a question - all of this talk of Tornadic activity - and reading the message that looked like some mort of weather breifing discussing it- should we expect to see this activity in advance of the storm or with it or possibly behind it. I know that no one can guarantee that information, but decisions need to be made in a lot of small local churches about whether it is safe to have people coming out or if the tornado risk is too high? I know thatthe storm weather should be no issue for toorrow, but I am unsure about this other factor
Edited by nowhammies (Sat Oct 22 2005 07:16 PM)
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