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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Rdietch
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: swimaway19]
      #61740 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:04 PM

Quote:

Though the 18Z GFDL moved south, the 18Z GFS is still around Sarasota





Port charolte on the GFS and its been there all day.and the ukmet and the gaps are down there too.

Edited by Rdietch (Sat Oct 22 2005 08:04 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Heads Up [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #61741 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:06 PM

Since no one posted the last recon (7pm EST...an hour old now):

916
URNT12 KNHC 222330
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2302Z
B. 21 DEG 31 MIN N
86 DEG 58 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2745 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 135 DEG 87 KT
G. 038 DEG 31 NM
H. 959 MB
I. 11 C/ 3057 M
J. 14 C/ 3064 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C70
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1824A Wilma OB 23
MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 2145Z.

---

As for the warming cloud tops, I noticed that a couple of frames back. It looked like it breifly opened, but it's now looking like its closed again.

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Oct 22 2005 08:07 PM)


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sara33
Weather Guru


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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: satellite steve]
      #61742 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:06 PM

I see that as well,"the bulge" Is that due to Wima?

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Big Red Machine
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: Rdietch]
      #61743 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:07 PM

Quote:


Port charolte on the GFS and its been there all day.and




Actually the 18Z GFS moved north and is showing a Sarasota landfall.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html


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Rdietch
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #61744 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:10 PM

Quote:

Quote:


Port charolte on the GFS and its been there all day.and




Actually the 18Z GFS moved north and is showing a Sarasota landfall.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html





I know where the model run is and if you look on a closer map that is not Sarasota that is Venice North Port.Does not matter anyway its 1 model of 5 they use mostly and someone has to be the north outliner.

Edited by Rdietch (Sat Oct 22 2005 08:12 PM)


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sara33
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #61745 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:10 PM

At this late in the game...why would the GFS be off from what every other model is? I know the model thing is pretty complex, but the GFS is a reliable model isn't it??

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HanKFranK
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structure [Re: funky]
      #61746 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:12 PM

this evening a dry slot has punched out the southwestern CDO of Wilma. the storm has what appear to be three wind maxima as well. historically systems that get addled by land this much have a tough time getting their inner cores together. earlier this season Dennis and emily did it during the 24-36 hours after moving back offshore from first landfalls of about the same duration, but that was for july systems not moving into a marginal shear environment. SSTs were also warmer. i'd say it's fairly safe to say that Wilma won't bomb down to 940mb overnight. the pressure is actually slowly rising as the last effects of land continue to weaken the core... that should end in the next few hours. with the multiple wind maxima configuration, getting the storm to tighten back up may not happen.. if it does it shouldn't start until tomorrow day. the upper air configuration will allow for reintensification; 3 as the official says is likely, and a 4 is possible if Wilma were to markedly improve. i'd say the 2/3 landfall prediction for the NHC is most reasonable.. it's the same range i was 2-3 days ago and that'll work. personally i'd look for 945-955mb. gonna keep it pegged on fort myers, especially since later guidance has crept up north of there. after florida some of the modeling continues to phase the storm into a powerful hybrid gale that is intermittently shown to crash into cape cod/maine. the consensus is still offshore.. but i'm sure that the local weather offices up there have been talking around about the possibility that keeps haunting them and things will be ready to roll if watches start popping up there in a couple of days. they're getting an early noreaster type storm about now, and i'm sure that the soaking they got earlier this month still has the hydrology up there in overdrive.
think the NHC jumped the gun with alpha, to be honest. they'll often get a 2.5 and wait another advisory cycle for persistence or for a plane to recon it. the ship report they were referencing in the disco wasn't conclusive evidence. been watching it on san juan longe range radar and it isn't the most impressive system (unless they're getting radar velocities that support t.s. winds). i really wish they'd be consistent, because a system with similar to sometimes better structure in the pacific last week remained a depression.
HF 0011z23october


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: swimaway19]
      #61747 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:12 PM

Seems whenever they load data of current conditions into the GFDL it moves north, whenever no data goes into model, it moves south. Not sure what that tells you..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Heads Up [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #61748 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:13 PM

Quote:

Does it look like the west/southwest eye wall has opened before completely exiting the coast?

Cloud tops in that area have warmed dramatically on the lastest IR sat. runs.




actually, what you had there all along is a double eye-wall structure... the inner one spent the last 24 hours, bodily inland and therefore is finally subcumb and is in the process of probably decaying altogether... Meanwhile, the outer eye-wall only was half situated on land, the other half was out over the warm fuel source and was therefore able to sustain much of the landfall process - being also that in all, this means that process was imcomplete...

from here, it is uncertain whether this will get stronger when it moves back over the Gulf but that definitely seems more plausible than not... the loop current still holds substantial heat content and this is modeled to pass straight over the top.. also, since Wilma will be accelerating, there is a chance that her storm relative shear will be less than the environmental shear... so, a few factors suggest that this outer eyewall will be contracting given time; not a certainty.


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collegemom
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: Rdietch]
      #61749 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:14 PM

I know I might get banned for this reply BUT......weren't you focused on Naples a bit back? But then again I may be wishcasting a bit more north. I will hush up now as I need to sleep while she boogies....

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Heads Up [Re: Random Chaos]
      #61750 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:14 PM

When you see a Vortex Message posted. Here's the main areas to watch.
H. 959 MB-watch the pressure
I. 11 C/ 3057 M
J. 14 C/ 3064 M-temperature inside the Eye
K. 14 C/ NA-dew point inside the Eye
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C70-very large EYE (70 mile wide Tornado)
MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 2145Z.


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MissBecky
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Re: structure [Re: HanKFranK]
      #61751 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:15 PM

HankFrank, if Wilma does make it back up to a Cat 4, what do you think her intensity will be at landfall? Will she drop down to a 2, or is it more likely she would be a 3? Thanks.
2/3. if it reintensifies it'll probably do it into an asymmetric kind of storm... lots of dry air worked in while it was over land, eroded away a third or so of the inner core. once the storm starts moving faster it should start dealing with it... maybe start redeveloping in similarly lopsided fashion. like danny says, watch the pressure. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Oct 22 2005 08:25 PM)


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sara33
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Re: Heads Up [Re: danielw]
      #61752 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:17 PM

What does the" 70 mile wide Tornado" mean? just curious

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Rdietch
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: collegemom]
      #61753 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:18 PM

Quote:

I know I might get banned for this reply BUT......weren't you focused on Naples a bit back? But then again I may be wishcasting a bit more north. I will hush up now as I need to sleep while she boogies....





I don't forcast but i say where the models are but never do i say i think its going here or there to me that is bad luck and i don't need any


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Tazmanian93
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: Rdietch]
      #61754 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:18 PM

To be honest as stated earlier and also yesterday, it seems GFS has been more north

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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collegemom
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Re: Heads Up [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #61755 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:19 PM

excellent call

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


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ShelleyMcD
Verified CFHC User


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Re: structure [Re: HanKFranK]
      #61756 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:20 PM

Help us newbies: Please explain "multiple wind maxima"-- I tried to get a definition but can't seem to google one anywhere, no even on NHC.

Thanks!

--------------------
Self-Confessed Control Freak
(I know I can't control what will happen, but I can control how much I understand about it!)


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danielwAdministrator
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70 miles wide [Re: sara33]
      #61757 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:21 PM

a 70 mile wide path of destruction. If she were over land right now.
Charley was 10-14 miles wide and Katrina was 30miles wide when she made landfall in Mississippi.

Larger Eye= Larger path of destruction and or devastation. Her Eye diameter will probably change prior to Landfall. But I can't recall ever seeing a 70 Mile Wide EYE.
That's usually something that is seen during Eyewall Replacement Cycles-ERC.


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Margie
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Re: Heads Up [Re: danielw]
      #61758 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:21 PM

daniel -- Those cells are forming over the warm waters of the loop current.

Re continued questions on why NHC hasn't moved their forecast path...they never move the forecast path unless they have a good reason.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Re: 70 miles wide [Re: danielw]
      #61760 - Sat Oct 22 2005 08:22 PM

Wilma has been a freak all along, most narrow eye, then the widest, what next?

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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