Thunderbird12
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Quote:
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00Z still suggests landfall near Ft. Myers around 12Z on Monday. The has been further north of most of the other models in the last couple of runs, so keep that in mind:
Actually no, the shows a Sarasota County landfall.
That's fairly far north of the consensus (but in line with my thinking).
The map I am looking at suggests landfall further south, actually probably between Ft. Myers and Charlotte Harbor.
Regarding the models that go into the forecast, none of the 00Z models go into the 11pm advisory. Usually, no output from 00Z is available until 0330Z (11:30 PM EDT). The runs off of the and is available even later. Even if it was available sooner, the would use the 18Z runs for the 11pm advisory because they have to prepare a whole suite of products and they would not have time to make last minute changes based on newer but incomplete model runs.
Regional models like the are available sooner, but does not use those, or at least they never cite them in their discussions.
Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 01:06 AM)
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ddawes27
Registered User
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I too am perplexed at where miss will hit............but I am prepared for staying..........or evacuating North from here( Punta Gorda) My only confidence is that. I have a bad feeling about the Peace River! Good Luck!
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FreakedInFlorida
Verified CFHC User
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Last year, we went to a shelter for and Jeanne and both times the house had no structural damage from the storms, so we are considering staying home this time as my father has a bad cold and just got out of the hospital and being in a shelter would be a pretty taxing process. We are in Fort Pierce, FL, which seems to be the current end game for the East Coast ocean fall (is that a word?). How bad is this going to be for this area? If it comes across at 20 MPH, would it be worse than Jeanne or or would the speed limit the possible damage. We do not live in a flood zone and the area is fairly densely populated with houses, brick school, etc...
Any advice would be greatly appreciated...
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weatherwatcher2
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Loc: Parrish florida
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Are these consistant?web page
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Colleen A.
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All the mets here in Tampa are stating that they believe that the point of landrfall will more likely to be further north (in Ft. Myers) than what the current forecast is showing. They are basing this opinion on the last 24 hours of modell runs from the and the . I believe that I read earlier on that the 11pm forecast track was shifted a tad north.
In Polk County, we are now under a TS Wind Warning. I think this is because the cold front and Hurricane will be clashing with eatch other. Of course, it will be much worse on the beaches....I sincerely hope that those in the direct path of this storm will not see devastating effects.
Colleen
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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SPECIAL DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
0250 UTC SUN OCT 23 2005
230250..THE 00Z STARTED ON TIME..NGM DONE. WAS OUT
TO T+72HRS. THERE WERE 20 NOAA G-IV DROPSONDES IN
FOR THE DUMP.
http://www-its.fsl.noaa.gov/ssg/status/ncep-status.html
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Big Tk
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Tampa FL
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If you look at the last few satellite loops. It looks like its trying to reform a eye around that convection to the north. I believe there are concentric eye walls forming.
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pincty
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I think we'll be OK Maddie. At least I hope so. Last year I vowed that after putting some savings away every two weeks that I should start buying .050 custom cut aluminum panels for my windows. They can withstand 150 mph winds. Well, I have 18 windows on my house and so far I have panels for six windows. In a year, I'll have them all completed. But right now I am 33 percent prepared.
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satellite steve
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It is a very safe bet to say that the weather will be better further N
No matter what the specific landfall from Sarasota south to the Keys, the worst winds surge and rain will be on the S side of the circulation (and landfalling eye) And the faster the storm is moving the more the difference between the N and S side of the storm -- so for it will be good to try and let the eye pass to your S
So best moves are inland and N on the Fl peninsula
As an aside -- lookinf at with the accelerating storm through the weatern atlantic along the Gulf Stream category 2 winds are carried all the way to a Canadian maritime province landfall
Yabba Dabba Doo
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Rdietch
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Quote:
All the mets here in Tampa are stating that they believe that the point of landrfall will more likely to be further north (in Ft. Myers) than what the current forecast is showing. They are basing this opinion on the last 24 hours of modell runs from the and the . I believe that I read earlier on that the 11pm forecast track was shifted a tad north.
In Polk County, we are now under a TS Wind Warning. I think this is because the cold front and Hurricane will be clashing with eatch other. Of course, it will be much worse on the beaches....I sincerely hope that those in the direct path of this storm will not see devastating effects.
Colleen
Sorry to tell you but i watched channel 13 and channel 8 and BOTH said and i quote delgatto on ch 13 i feel very good and confident about a naples landfall and channel 8 said Ft myers to Naples and your guy on 11 was ft myers so sorry to correct you but that was a wrong statement.
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gavsie
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Seminole Fl
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Quote:
Quote:
All the mets here in Tampa are stating that they believe that the point of landrfall will more likely to be further north (in Ft. Myers) than what the current forecast is showing. They are basing this opinion on the last 24 hours of modell runs from the and the . I believe that I read earlier on that the 11pm forecast track was shifted a tad north.
In Polk County, we are now under a TS Wind Warning. I think this is because the cold front and Hurricane will be clashing with eatch other. Of course, it will be much worse on the beaches....I sincerely hope that those in the direct path of this storm will not see devastating effects.
Colleen
Sorry to tell you but i watched channel 13 and channel 8 and BOTH said and i quote delgatto on ch 13 i feel very good and confident about a naples landfall and channel 8 said Ft myers to Naples and your guy on 11 was ft myers so sorry to correct you but that was a wrong statement.
While I was not watching channel 13 I was watching channel 10 and 28 and both said it may take a more northerly track if the current direction continues. No one said we would be in for hurricane force winds but just a dicey couple days. Did it occur to you that they may be saying different things on different stations?
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satellite steve
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Differences between and /Jeanne for Fort Pierce area
1) will have to traverse the Florida peninsula diagonally to get to you and will be significantly weaker when it arrives than at landfall -- Forecasts now suggest 's intensity at landfall to be Cat 2 and prob Cat 1 on Fl E Coast. So signif less sustained wind damage likely. However beware the unpredicatable tornados may crop up so mobile homes are still at increased risk
2) Virtually no storm surge risk - Tides may run high on N side of storm when winds wrap around
3) Rainfall will prob be less than as will be moving along at >20mph and won't hang around to drop more rain. This usually means less power line damge as well -- caused as much power outage as Jeanne despite being Cat 2 vs. Cat 3 because of slow speed
Yabba Dabba Doo
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Tantalus
Registered User
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You just cannot be sanguine. We live in the Keys and went to bed with the best assurances of et al, that was going to just zip right acros the mainland and into the GUlf and go its merry way. We were awakened at three a.m. by a god-awful ruckus, saying "Holy doo-doo (or words to that effect) what in blue blazes is that?". Turned on the 'puter and it wound up that had suddenly jogged south and was on our doorstep. Imagine our surpirse, if you will, when a tree fell on our roof and another was uprooted, taking out our front porch. One cannot blame the or or even Joe Bastardi (much as the temptation is there for the latter). We turned on the tube, expecting the latest alarmist report and discovered there was a tornado spotted 7 mi. SE of us moving to the northwest. Now any of you familiar with the topography of the Keys knows that basements are not an option, the cap rock being about all of six inches beneath your feet. So, we sat in our mobile home, huddled in terror just waiting for the end. The moral of the story is too-fold: The road to hell actually IS paved with good intentions as the did (and ALWAYS does) its best; but, in the words of the immortal legend Yogi Berra," it ain't over 'til it's over" http://i.flhurricane.com/cyclone/images/icons/icon9.gif
icon9 This is me apologizing for the length of this post..
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Some you win, some you lose; some get rained out
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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
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Loc: BROWARD
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A new forum was started by MikeC at 12:30. More than half of us have migrated there by this time.
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