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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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engicedave
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: age234]
      #61669 - Sat Oct 22 2005 05:51 PM

Palm Beach Co., schools are closed monday (only).

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sara33
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: tpratch]
      #61670 - Sat Oct 22 2005 05:52 PM

For those of us in Pinellas County...
Do you think that the affects will be similar to Frances & Jeanne last year?
Better or worse?
Any thoughts would be appreciated


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evergladesangler
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18Z GFS and GFDL between Venice, Sarasota [Re: MichaelA]
      #61671 - Sat Oct 22 2005 05:52 PM

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFDL_18z/ghmloop.html

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_p06_m_loop.shtml


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Rasvar
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: tpratch]
      #61672 - Sat Oct 22 2005 05:54 PM

Even if the storm hits Orlando, no real reason to evacuate, unless you are in a poorly constructed building or in a mobile home. Might want to clear the possible missles outside. Otherwise, best to just get some food. maybe some candles and rid her out at home. That is my plan down here in Poincianna, unless I have to go to work.

--------------------
Jim


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Lee-Delray
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #61673 - Sat Oct 22 2005 05:54 PM

I'm amazed how many of my neighbors aren't taking this seriously. I live in a development of 76 homes and maybe 20 +/- of us put shutters up. I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but why don't people take this serious?

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Lee-Delray
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: Rasvar]
      #61674 - Sat Oct 22 2005 05:55 PM

At least when we loose power, it will be cool.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: TampaSu]
      #61675 - Sat Oct 22 2005 05:58 PM

Kind of an aside, almost seems like TBW and MLB have a slight difference of opinion. Would have thought Polk would have an inland hurricane watch since Orange and Osceola do. Even the experts seem to be unsure on this one. MLB might be a little extra cautious or believe the models more. no real idea on why there is a difference. Granted, MLB's discussions have been a bit more cautious the last few times. So there is no surprise on this to me.

--------------------
Jim


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Twistergal
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Re: Severe Weather Outlook for FL from SPC [Re: Addicted2Cane]
      #61676 - Sat Oct 22 2005 05:58 PM

Following is the latest information from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center regarding the potential for severe weather over the next couple of days in FL. Maybe this will give folks a little bit of clarity on the chances for severe thunderstorms, tornados, etc., in the Sunshine State. You can find info for the Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks at the following URL's:


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

--------------------
Toto, we're still in Kansas!


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FireAng85
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Perspective [Re: Jamiewx]
      #61677 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:00 PM

It is very sobering to me that this hurricane is going to landfall about 250 miles south of me and they are forecasting 50 mph sustained winds with hurricane force gusts....... I'm getting worried. If it inches north even just a little bit, I don't even want to think about that........

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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efaulkSWFLA
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Re: Perspective [Re: FireAng85]
      #61678 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:05 PM

For the "inexperienced" what is a good loop to refer to when you want to get an accurate update of the satellite? Everytime I want to get an update, I alway looks at a different type of image..lol

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Big Red Machine
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Re: Perspective [Re: FireAng85]
      #61679 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:06 PM

Whoa... 18Z GFS slides the storm further north. Inland @ Sarasota or so, then NE through Orlando.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_042.shtml

If this verifies, yours truly would've nailed this.... not that anyone cares... or that it's particularly germaine to the conversation. Might as well pat myself on the back while I can though.


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age234
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: Rasvar]
      #61680 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:10 PM

Quote:

Even if the storm hits Orlando, no real reason to evacuate, unless you are in a poorly constructed building or in a mobile home. Might want to clear the possible missles outside. Otherwise, best to just get some food. maybe some candles and rid her out at home. That is my plan down here in Poincianna, unless I have to go to work.



Thanks for the tips, I'll pass them along. So do you think that, if she stays on the current track, the power would even go out in greater Orlando? The only hurricane I've been in was Jeanne, and the power didn't even flicker around here. What do you think Wilma will be like in comparison with Jeanne?


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Big Red Machine
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: age234]
      #61681 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:11 PM

Depends where you are in WP. All of those old trees and high winds don't mix well. Can really wreak havoc on the power grid.

I used to live in the UCF area of east orange (not WP but close). Last year with Charley I was out for 2 weeks.


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MichaelA
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Re: Perspective [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #61682 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:13 PM

*pat*

Looking at this WV loop, the first short wave has passed Wilma with the second short wave dropping from South Dakota.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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Ronn
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: sara33]
      #61683 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:14 PM

Quote:

For those of us in Pinellas County...
Do you think that the affects will be similar to Frances & Jeanne last year?
Better or worse?




I do not believe that Wilma will be as bad for Pinellas County as Frances or Jeanne was, unless the storm moves farther north than expected. As of now, we are probably looking at tropical storm force gusts (45-55mph), but nothing more. If you recall, Jeanne and Frances both generated a strong onshore NW wind on the Pinellas coast that--because of unimpeded flow over the Gulf--gave us sustained TS winds with some hurricane force gusts during Jeanne on the immediate coast. When Wilma is at its closest, our winds will be from the east over land, thus we will not get a severe "backlash" on the coast. This, coupled with the fact that we will be on the weaker northern side of the storm, will probably result in only sustained winds around 30-35 mph with gusts to TS force. Of course, we still should be preparing for a direct hit , because we are still within the cone of uncertainty. Most likely, however, Wilma will come in a bit south of us...how far south remains to be seen.

Edited by Ronn (Sat Oct 22 2005 06:18 PM)


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sara33
Weather Guru


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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: Ronn]
      #61684 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:16 PM

Thanks Ronn

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FireAng85
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: age234]
      #61685 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:16 PM

Wow, in Lake County, Sorrento to be exact, we lost our roof and were without power for a week! Jeanne was harder on us than any of them!

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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Tazmanian93
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Re: Perspective [Re: efaulkSWFLA]
      #61686 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:16 PM

Put these in your favorites

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed

Edited by Tazmanian93 (Sat Oct 22 2005 06:17 PM)


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Rasvar
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Re: NHC Press Conference [Re: age234]
      #61687 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:18 PM

My personal thinking is that she will be between Jeanne and Charley in Orlando. Closer to Jeanne and not anywhere near Charley. Given a year of regrowth, probably more powerfailures then Jeanne. No massive grid destruction, though. Maybe some 2-3 day outages at worst. That is based on current forecast.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Sat Oct 22 2005 06:19 PM)


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Rdietch
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Re: Perspective [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #61688 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:19 PM

Quote:

Whoa... 18Z GFS slides the storm further north. Inland @ Sarasota or so, then NE through Orlando.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_042.shtml

If this verifies, yours truly would've nailed this.... not that anyone cares... or that it's particularly germaine to the conversation. Might as well pat myself on the back while I can though.





About the same as the 12Z the GFS has been the north outliner all day today so until it gets new data it will stay there im sure.


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