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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Orlando
Re: Close the office tomorrow? [Re: abyrd]
      #62173 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:20 PM

It has been announced that Orange County schools will be closed on Monday.

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age234
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 22
Loc: Winter Park
Re: Here it comes! [Re: KC]
      #62174 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:20 PM

For those interested, Full Sail canceled classes from Monday at 9am to Tuesday at 9am. Sucks for people who will be driving home from their 5-9am classes tomorrow morning when she hits...

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Sadie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
Re: NHC right on [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #62175 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:20 PM

I've got to say that Skeetobite's Landfall Zoom map based on NHC Disco #33 is priceless. Shows the windfields in fantastic detail!

Thank you Skeet!

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #62176 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:20 PM

That's weird. I was just watching WFTV in Orlando and he said that all the models are now south of Okeechobee.

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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EaglezFan42
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
Loc: St Petersburg, FL (Jungle Terr...
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #62177 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:22 PM

Quote:

GFS is in. Looks like a little north of Lake Okeechobee.. NAM is interesting too, seems to have moved considerably north and is now slightly north of NHC track.




can u include a link please? Thanks


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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
Re: NHC right on [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #62178 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:25 PM

Quote:

Looks like so far the NHC is right on.No surprises yet.She is looking better and better on satilite,the winds should catch up with the pressure this afternoon.People in Tampa should be happy now,not upset.




I sure am happy bob, there is probally only one person who is upset.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Here it comes! [Re: EaglezFan42]
      #62180 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:26 PM

Recon found 89 kt FL winds in the SE quadrant after the last vortex messag, so it is probably still in the neighborhood of 80-85 kts at the surface. This is a new plane into the storm, so whether an inner eyewall was actually forming or whether they were just seeing the remnants of the old inner eyewall is not clear. My guess is that they were seeing the same feature as the last plane, but they decided to call it as a "forming" eyewall rather than a degrading eyewall.

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #62182 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:27 PM

Quote:

GFS is in. Looks like a little north of Lake Okeechobee.. NAM is interesting too, seems to have moved considerably north and is now slightly north of NHC track.




yeah...that's entirely reasonable...it won't travel n of the position of the cold/stationary boundary unless it retreats, which is obviously dependent on where it's u/a support aligns...In this case, with such a powerful entity pressing SEward from the NW (in time) the NW displacement of this boundary would seem less likely (no certainties..of course), but hurrcanes do tend to bow boundaries back NW.
but 50 miles either side of the former line is going to reasonable, and unfortunately, not very concise for those who feel they need to know now.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #62183 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:29 PM

Link to 12Z GFS http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_l_loop.shtml

Link to 12 Z NAM http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_500_l_loop.shtml

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Accuweather Track [Re: tpratch]
      #62184 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:34 PM

Totally agree...JB always has an interesting insight, but then he piles on the National-Enquirer-type rhetoric. I think it's because it's the type of presentation Accuweather wanted, to draw in $$, and he was willing to sell out to that extent and oblige. The public seems to have a very short memory and just want to be entertained, which he does. I think he's ok with it. I like to think of him as the anti-Max-Mayfield!

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Accuweather Track [Re: Margie]
      #62185 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:38 PM

The 15:45 UTC IR picture shows more convection banding to the south. Is this a sign of some strengthening?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


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Orlandoman
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3
Re: Accuweather Track [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #62186 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:41 PM

This is my second post for this topic......Can Wilma and Alpha meet somewhere near the cape.......????

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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
Re: Accuweather Track [Re: Orlandoman]
      #62187 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:42 PM

Very unlikely

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62188 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:42 PM

Quote:

My guess is that they were seeing the same feature as the last plane, but they decided to call it as a "forming" eyewall rather than a degrading eyewall.




No, T12, take a look at 1515Z. The two original spiral bands are now reaching right into the center. Compare that with the 0815Z. The larger eyewall that was forming there did not progress. What you would have seen this morning was those inner eyewall bands moving outward and being absorbed into the outer eyewall with a slowly-decreasing radius. Instead, the dry air was mixed in, and it looks like she is going for le petite eye if she can do it.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Accuweather Track [Re: Orlandoman]
      #62189 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:45 PM

It is a possibility that Alpha and Wilma met up and merge. Most likely, it would somewhere from off the North Carolina/Virginia coast up to off the coast of New England. If it does happen, it will not happen south of North Carolina.

--------------------
Jim


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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Here it comes! [Re: FireAng85]
      #62190 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:46 PM

Volusia County Schools will be closed on Monday.

Looks like the front has stalled


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funky
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 55
Re: NHC right on [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #62191 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:52 PM

Quote:

Looks like so far the NHC is right on.No surprises yet.She is looking better and better on satilite,the winds should catch up with the pressure this afternoon.People in Tampa should be happy now,not upset.




i think all of us up here in sarasota through tampa are breathing a sigh of relief!!!!

just for precaution my wife and i brought in all of the plants, furniture, everything off the pool deck you name it, can never be too prepared!! i hope what i'm seeing with Wilma and her convective banding around 3/4 of the CoC doesn't keep up. for the people down south's sake. good luck to all of you, i don't think you realize how hard this thing is going to hit.

--------------------
WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Here it comes! [Re: VolusiaMike]
      #62192 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:53 PM

Still no word from Pinellas Cty Schools or the EOC it's like they' re not there...I know they are, but you would think that they would say something to let the general public know whats going on

--------------------
Matt


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Accuweather Track [Re: Rasvar]
      #62193 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:56 PM

Quote:

It is a possibility that Alpha and Wilma met up and merge. Most likely, it would somewhere from off the North Carolina/Virginia coast up to off the coast of New England. If it does happen, it will not happen south of North Carolina.




It appears as ....not atypical, the tall mountains of Hispanola have shredded Alpha's llv circulation field to bits... Actually, according to NHC, it was tiny anyway - but i argue much more impressive in the mid lvls perhaps...This is also currently still having a reasonably good signature on IR, demonstrating more than mere appeal to twist the cloud pattern as whatever is left of Alpha currently nears the NW side of the Island... Basically, would not be surprised if some regeneration of the llv wind field evolvs.. water is warm in that area (n side of the Islands)... The exact interaction with Wilma will be very complex because it hasn't been decided how Wilma will interacted with Coastal cyclogenisis. Throwing Alpha in the Fray: 1 of 2 most likely scenarios will happen. 1) alpha regenerates and there for has some resistence to absorption; in which case, she'd probably would get caught up in the environmental flow amid the barotropic region SE of Wilma-Hybrid part II... 2) alpha will not be successfull in regenerating and be gobbled up like a black hole eats a stellar companion..

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 12:59 PM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Here it comes! [Re: chase 22]
      #62194 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:56 PM

Looks like one of the outter bands is approaching Key West on the radar. The presentation on the radar makes it appear that the front is backing off a little bit. This may not be the case. Have not had a good chance to look at the models to see if this was expected, so it may be a non-event as far as the forecast goes.

--------------------
Jim


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