vikron
Registered User
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Pinellas County Schools will be closed tomorrow. The announcement came out at 12:05. BayNews9 Coverage
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Littlebit
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 47
Loc: Plant City, FL
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Pinellas and Hillsborough county schools are closed Monday.
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OcalaKT
Weather Watcher
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Governor doing press conference right now.
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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Pasco Co. needs to close also...at least southern Pasco. Mondays's forecast isnt weather you want to be on the road for any reason.
Someone mentioned the front stalling, is this the cold front? What effect will this have on ?
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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Jeb Bush is holding a press conference now. He just announced that they anticipate landfall early Monday am in the Keys. Collier Emergency Management will be holding a press conference at 2pm. ABC-7 and NBC-2 will begin their joint coverage at 4:30 pm today, with streaming video available at ABC-7 at 10 pm (www.abc-7.c0m).
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
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Good windfield projection based on track:
http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/images/200524N_2H.png
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Joshua
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Latest recon flight at around 12:34 EST measured minimum central pressure of 963MB, one millibar down from an hour ago. Also, the inner wall is confirmed to be developing quickly. The pressure (963 MB) isn't equal to normal wind speed, so if the pressure increases, it just means the storm is trying to "level itself out". Also, if it continues to drop pressure over the next few hours, you can expect the storms winds to increase.
More at 2PM, I'm sure.
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robynsmom
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Ridge Manor Florida
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Hernando is closed tomorrow. It always seems that Pasco and Hernando do things different. Last year they were opposite on closures.
Is anyone at all worried that this front will stall and the storm will go more north where hardly anyone is prepared? I can't find a met anywhere that will even mention this senario!
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Robynsmom
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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Just got a call from my school's phne tree saying Osceola is now closed for tomorrow too. Have not seen it or heard it from any news source, but it may be there by the time I go back to confirm it in print
confirmed via school's website
Edited by nowhammies (Sun Oct 23 2005 05:15 PM)
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swimaway19
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
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Quote:
Hernando is closed tomorrow. It always seems that Pasco and Hernando do things different. Last year they were opposite on closures.
Is anyone at all worried that this front will stall and the storm will go more north where hardly anyone is prepared? I can't find a met anywhere that will even mention this senario!
They have already discussed the scenario, and the front has already stalled as far as it will go for now. They are becoming very confident in their track with the landfall near Naples.
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Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....
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Sadie
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Arcadia, FL
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Geez, pressure must be really dropping. My ears are popping worse than on any flight I ever took. Need some gum. 
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"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Posts: 125
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Quote:
Pasco Co. needs to close also...at least southern Pasco. Mondays's forecast isnt weather you want to be on the road for any reason.
Someone mentioned the front stalling, is this the cold front? What effect will this have on ?
The front has actually converted to a warm front according to the latest surface maps (that is, it is now moving northward) - though I don't expect it to move very far, given the trough behind it and the ridging behind THAT.
As for influence, the issue really is one of the tilt axis. I had expected a more N-S tilt axis to be maintained. Instead the front "flattened", stalled, and reversed, essentially flattening out E-W as it backed. From an atmospheric point of view, it got "ahead" of the impulse behind it, and ran out of energy and stalled, rather than being amplified due to being "caught" from behind.
Until moves around the edge of that flattened section of the gradient, it cannot move northward beyond that point.
The trough coming down out of the midsection will catch the (now stalled) boundary, amplify the front and likely convert it back to a cold front (that is, drive it south once again), and impart a more N-S tilt. However, the timing on this is such that it is extremely unlikely to get there until after is either onshore or very close to it.
This is why the southward path appears to be verifying. The timing of the arrival of that second impulse of energy will be critical though for two things - the relatively degree of enhancement of tornadic storm risk near the front, and, ultimately, when or if takes a more poieward bearing as it proceeds.
That second impiulse looks very strong, with a vigorous high behind it. If it produces a negatively-tilted trough in the NE US (entirely possible) then would be sucked north or even WEST of north after exiting Florida while riding up in the westerlies. This is could produce a severe weather event in the Northeast US. Yesterday it looked like this would not verify (although the has been hammering at it for days to one degree or another) but today it looks like it might.
As the approach will be at more of a right angle to the coastline than was true for Charlie, small errors will not translate into huge differences in landfall point. I do not see the scenario developing that I had expected in the timeframe required to bend more northward, which is a strongly-tilted frontal boundary off roughly Cedar Key - instead we've got a flat (E-W) boundary just north of the Tampa area.
As such the path looks good at least at entry to the state. Exactly when she begins to turn more northward is still up in the air, which is why inland warnings are justified across a large part of the peninsula, instead of confining them to areas south of Lake O. In addition, the timing of that turn is tremendously important for the NE US in a couple of days.
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swimaway19
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
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I have a quick question for anyone who can answer: What do you think the effects of will be on Captiva Island?
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Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Looks like some quick intensification starting tonight, if she continues to slowly organize. Again timing of how far along she is in the reorg process when she hits the loop current will determine this to a large extent, even with the other things that factor into intensity.
And if she does manage to become a Cat 3 for a short time, she won't have weakened very much by the time she reaches the outer Keys. That is why the Keys are at such risk, compared to the mainland.
I was going to put...high-end Cat 3 or even a Cat 4. But I think if that occured it will only be for a very tiny core, and for that area to hit as low as the Keys would mean a course change a little further south, so that is starting to get into the area of lower probability. Still because forecast predictions are limited, and it will be too late to evac once the hurricane is closer, it is important to evac the Keys now.
I understand quite a few are going to stay. Not sure what their motivations mght be, but I'd hate to put myself in a position where my options for staying alive might suddenly become very limited.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Prospero
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: Gulfport, FL
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Woo Hoo! Snow day! Snow day!
Ooops, I mean Hurricane day...
With Hillsborough County schools closed, that means Gulf Coast College in Tampa will be closed also.
That's where I work.
The International Academy of Design and Techonology is closed Monday also, and I'm a student there.
So I have a total day off to watch the weather.
Cooool!
Of course, we all hope for no loss of property for anybody, or any loss of life.
Other than that, I'm looking forward to watching the palm trees dance.
OK, I'll be the sole honest person here. I want to be in the eye, with it so strong that it ALMOST causes damage, but not quite. I want my heart to pound to the wind, I want to stand in the doorway invigorated with my eyes wide open watching the sheets of rain blow sideways. I want to BE Jim Cantori!
OK, I'm sorry...
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Gulfport Florida Webcam - Gulfport Florida Weather Station - Clearwater Beach Cams
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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From Local 6
CLOSURES: All Lake County Schools will be closed Monday, Oct. 24.
CONDITIONS:
Meteorologists are forecasting Lake County will receive several hours of tropical-force winds (of 39 mph or higher) beginning at 7 a.m. Monday. Total rainfall expected in the County on Monday is approximately 2 inches.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Central Arkansas
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I am not familiar with the topography of the projected landfall area. Is there anything there that could influence a sharper angle north?
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Naples, FL
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Re: how will Captiva fare. Depends on the exact landfall point, but Captiva is a small barrier island and barrier islands are always at risk. As you probably know, Captiva did not fare well during . The largest resort on the entire island of San-Cap, South Seas Resort, is just preparing to re-open.
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swimaway19
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
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It is Florida..... no matter where you go its very flat... no mountains or even sizable hills....just sand dunes at the beach
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Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....
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swimaway19
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
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Quote:
Re: how will Captiva fare. Depends on the exact landfall point, but Captiva is a small barrier island and barrier islands are always at risk. As you probably know, Captiva did not fare well during . The largest resort on the entire island of San-Cap, South Seas Resort, is just preparing to re-open.
Thanks! I have an Aunt and Uncle with property on the island. They live in Minnesota, and don't get a lot of hurricane coverage, so we have to keep tabs on it down here for them.
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Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....
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