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Area for development tagged in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf), 20% development in next 5 days (may increase later into next week)
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 226 (Zeta) , Major: 289 (Laura) Florida - Any: 975 (Michael) Major: 975 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
Re: Here it comes! [Re: LadyStorm]
      #62238 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:10 PM

Collier Emergency Management is holding a press conference and they are still expecting landfall in the vicinity of Marco Island early tomorrow morning. Shelters opened this morning and registrations are continuing. Curfews are in place for areas under mandatory evac orders in Collier County.

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maddie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 15
Loc: Port Richey, Florida
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Lysis]
      #62239 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:11 PM

Here in Pasco County( you know the one county that still has schools open) is very muggy but a breeze has started.....Bay News 9 is stating that the hurricane is still looking very healthy , you think much intensification will occur before landfall?

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R-U-Q-R-U
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3
Loc: Seminole County
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Rasvar]
      #62240 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:17 PM

Quote:

Quote:

It is Florida..... no matter where you go its very flat... no mountains or even sizable hills....just sand dunes at the beach




Probably the closest thing to a hill are landfills in Broward and Miami-Dade counties. Otherwise, it is about as flat as you can find.




Actually the Mount Dora area of Lake County is pretty hilly by FL standards.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Here it comes! [Re: R-U-Q-R-U]
      #62241 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:18 PM

URNT12 KNHC 231807
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/17:50:10Z
B. 23 deg 02 min N
085 deg 27 min W
C. 700 mb 2778 m
D. NA kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 216 deg 085 kt
G. 135 deg 059 nm
H. 963 mb
I. 8 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3050 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.06 / 2 nm
P. AF304 2124A Wilma OB 21
MAX FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 17:16:40 Z


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Here it comes! [Re: maddie]
      #62242 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:19 PM

Anything is possible in a hurricane, but hopefully it will stay stable. The waters around the Gulf have always been difficult to predict in how they will or will not support a system. I still think for the coastal areas the biggest danger is storm surge. The rain is an issue for areas that have poor drainage. The final element will be that people are not complacent, but are experiencing hurricane fatigue, financial costs are much higher than this time last year, and the numbers at face value of Cat one or two are not scary after seeing the effects of Katrina and Rita. This system is one that everyone needs to have a plan and pray they don't need it.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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EaglezFan42
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
Loc: St Petersburg, FL (Jungle Terr...
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62243 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:19 PM

Pasco County schools closed on Monday! Just got a phone call from the district. They always have to be the last ones to close school, dont they? LOL

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age234
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 22
Loc: Winter Park
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62244 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:20 PM

This has probably been posted a lot, but what is the link to the site that translates that recon data to a readable form?

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 489
Loc: Tampa
Re: Here it comes! [Re: age234]
      #62245 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:21 PM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62246 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:21 PM

No indication of an inner eyewall on the latest recon. If anything, I think that if Wilma is going to intensify much from here, it is going to have to get rid of the inner eyewall fragment and contract the outer eyewall. The inner eyewall doesn't have much of a chance to become very strong since it is within a stronger outer eyewall.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 902
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Here it comes! [Re: EaglezFan42]
      #62247 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:22 PM

CoC now beginning to show on Key West radar.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 1/0/0


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DeLandT
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc: Parrish, FL
Re: Here it comes! [Re: R-U-Q-R-U]
      #62248 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:26 PM

The highest point in Florida is called Britton Hill. The elevation is a nosebleeding 345 feet. Located in Lakewood Park.

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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Here it comes! [Re: EaglezFan42]
      #62249 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:26 PM

For those of you that live in the TB area...If you go outside and look to the North you can actually see the warm fron to the North, and the darker clouds of Wilma to the SW. It's pretty cool to actually see what you have been talking about.

--------------------
Matt


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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
Re: Here it comes! *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: chase 22]
      #62250 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:31 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Here it comes! [Re: chase 22]
      #62251 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:32 PM

The "Mountain" area you are referring to is called Sugarloaf Mountain.. It's as close to a mountain as we get here in Florida. Check this out!
http://shorton.phpwebhosting.com/slideshows/sugarloaf_mtn.htm
It is in Lake County around Montverde/Ferndale. It's very pretty........

Thought Florida was flat, did ya? If this is your first tour of central Florida, you may be in for some surprises. Rising to the grand elevation of 310 feet, Sugar Loaf affords a panoramic view of glistening Lake Apopka and various smaller lakes. Citrus groves of orange and grapefruit trees, sprawling ranch houses and marinas await you. Terrain: flat to rolling hills....


--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"

Edited by FireAng85 (Sun Oct 23 2005 02:41 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62253 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:35 PM

Surface winds measured by dropsondes into the eyewall have been unusually low the last couple of hours... nothing to even hurricane force. It's possible that these measurements aren't representing the true surface winds, or else the surface wind field is significantly disrupted compared to the mid-level wind field, which is possible given the disorganized eye structure and the recent interaction with land. Even if that is the case, the surface wind field will probably recover with time to become more along the lines of what you would expect with a hurricane of this size and magnitude.

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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Here it comes! *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *DELETED* *DELETED* [Re: Rdietch]
      #62254 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:38 PM

Post deleted by chase 22

Edited by MikeC (Sun Oct 23 2005 02:57 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
posting rules [Re: maddie]
      #62255 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:42 PM

this forum is meant for discussion of the hurricane's track and forecast, as well as critical information about impacts and real emergency-type info. you can use this forum to make forecasts if you explain your reasoning or support your ideas with evidence... otherwise it goes in the forecast lounge. comments about the official hurricane statements, discussion about what's going on with the hurricane, reports about local storm impacts, and the like are perfectly OK here. if the post you're making is one line of superfluous information or not relevant or just chat-room banter, it doesn't belong here. i.e. everybody expects that the schools are going to be shut down on the peninsula tomorrow.. it's just depressing at seeing how slow and boneheaded local government can be somtimes. comments that can be reduced to 'what?' or 'you think?' or 'i agree' aren't necessary. no amount of smiley faces make them interesting. alarmist posts like 'it's going to cat 5' or 'we're all going to die!!!' aren't welcome either.
the site is built so that you can go to other forums for other discussion, or use PM to talk to individuals if what you're saying isn't directed at an individual (uncalled-for snide remarks about other people who post here aren't going to last on the main board either). when there's lots of traffic, i.e. we have a hurricane event, lots of folks unfamiliar with the board rules tend to clutter the main forum up with non-relevant discussion. please read the forum rules before posting so that you can keep your comments on topic. it makes the forum run and read better, and keeps the mods from being busy editing all the time.
'nuff of that. enjoy the forum.
HF 1843z23october


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Here it comes! [Re: chase 22]
      #62256 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:43 PM

Actually the current track is just south of Naples. It has been in that general area for about a week. The NHC's paths never pin pointed any city above Ft. Myers; it was always Ft. Myers or south. The models, like the GFDL and GFS had Wilma going through Sarasota a few times, but the projected path was never Sarasota or Tampa. The guy may be talking about posters who read atmospheric conditions, the troughs, etc... and offered their opinions about the track MAYBE being shifted north near the Sarasota/Tampa area. That being said, the posters from those two areas lashed out (including me) at those who offered their own predictions about landfall. Furthermore, there is nothing wrong with that...that is what this is for and because of the tense situation, people (again, like me) didn't like seeing their city being mentioned all the time. No harm done though...people just have to accept the fact that opinions are just that - opinions and until the NHC or your local authorities tell you to worry, you should remain calm. A few posters on here reminded me of that and i understand now and apologize for any lashing out i did.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


Edited by damejune2 (Sun Oct 23 2005 02:47 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m. [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62258 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:44 PM

I had posted earlier talking extensively about this possibility... Our local offices are going bonkers..! Case you guys didn't know, but a Nor'easter actually has more storm based energy output than a hurricane, adding a hurricane to the mix is a great deal fun. anyway....where are all the new england users/mets?

...HURRICANE Wilma WILL TRANSITION INTO A DANGEROUS OCEAN STORM
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINS AND
COASTAL FLOODING...

ALL ATTENTION WILL TURN TO HURRICANE Wilma JUST RE-EMERGING OFF OF
MEXICO. Wilma HAS BEEN MOVING INCREDIBLY SLOW BUT THINGS ARE GOING
TO CHANGE VERY QUICKLY. THE DEEP EASTERN TROUGH WILL PICK Wilma UP
AND ITS EXPECTED TO RACE TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
TRACKING THE STORM MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. Wilma WILL TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL OCEAN STORM HAVING CHARACTERISTICS THAT
ARE PARTIALLY TROPICAL/EXTRA-TROPICAL. THE CANADIAN/UKMET/GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALL SHOWING A LOW BETWEEN 970 AND 980 MB JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET AT TUESDAY 12Z. MEANWHILE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THERE IS A
1030 MB HIGH. THEREFORE...EXPECTING AN INCREDIBLE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP AND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING 70 KNOTS OF
WIND AT 850 MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL BE ISSUING A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62260 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:51 PM

Thunderbird - I was watching TWC and they said something the other day about the upper levels of the storm being swept NE faster than the lower levels. Could this be what is happening now? What happens when a storm such as this has it's head taken off? Can it survive without that upper level feature?

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


Edited by damejune2 (Sun Oct 23 2005 02:52 PM)


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