Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Area for development tagged in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf), 20% development in next 5 days (may increase later into next week)
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 226 (Zeta) , Major: 289 (Laura) Florida - Any: 975 (Michael) Major: 975 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | >> (show all)
Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Rdietch]
      #62262 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:53 PM

According to the NHC weather map I just looked at the trough has retreated from a line between Tampa and Yucatan, to a line between Apalachicola and Brownsville TX. Unless this is an older map (the time is current) posted in error, it would seem that Wilma will move NNW rather than NW. I'll check it again in a while and see if I need new eyes. At any rate my arthritis and sinuses say the trough has moved.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Mayor of Moronia]
      #62272 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:59 PM

Are you sure you don't mean NE? The front is supposed to sweep the storm NE, and thought that it already had done so. I'll have to check that out...thanks for bringing that to our attention!

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Rdietch]
      #62273 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:01 PM

I don't recall any of the Tampa Bay mets ever predicting that Tampa Bay would take a direct hit. They HAVE said that the storm could end up further north than Naples ...as in Ft. Myers, which is still in the "cone". All they have said is that everyone in the Tampa Bay area needed to keep a close eye on the storm because of the difficulty of predicting a storm 5 days out.
What they are telling us now is what the NWS is saying...that because of the large wind area, that areas north of where the storm will eventually will make landfall will experience TS winds in the northern coastal and inland counties; the counties in their southern viewing areas can expect hurricane force winds in the coastal and inland counties.
Given the cone of error, Naples seems to be in the bullseye. However, the margin of error is always there (ala Charley) and it could make landfall further south of Naples or further north of Naples. The NHC mentions this in every single advisory. If you've watched most hurricanes, they always seem jog a tad (or more at times) to either the east/west/north/south. Ed Rappaport said today in a CNN interview that it could be Ft. Myers, it could be Naples or it could be further south of Naples, but that with the size of the storm, you cannot focus on just the black line because most of the peninsula will feel some effects from Wilma.
Hopefully, this will end this topic. Move on and watch and wait for where this storm ends up and hope that wherever it ends up, no one suffers any major damage.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Mayor of Moronia]
      #62275 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:03 PM

Quote:

According to the NHC weather map I just looked at the trough has retreated from a line between Tampa and Yucatan, to a line between Apalachicola and Brownsville TX. Unless this is an older map (the time is current) posted in error, it would seem that Wilma will move NNW rather than NW. I'll check it again in a while and see if I need new eyes. At any rate my arthritis and sinuses say the trough has moved.




It is in fact that. Genesis had a great post about this subject a couple of pages back.

--------------------
Matt


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62276 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:04 PM

Quote:

I don't recall any of the Tampa Bay mets ever predicting that Tampa Bay would take a direct hit. They HAVE said that the storm could end up further north than Naples ...as in Ft. Myers, which is still in the "cone". All they have said is that everyone in the Tampa Bay area needed to keep a close eye on the storm because of the difficulty of predicting a storm 5 days out.
What they are telling us now is what the NWS is saying...that because of the large wind area, that areas north of where the storm will eventually will make landfall will experience TS winds in the northern coastal and inland counties; the counties in their southern viewing areas can expect hurricane force winds in the coastal and inland counties.
Given the cone of error, Naples seems to be in the bullseye. However, the margin of error is always there (ala Charley) and it could make landfall further south of Naples or further north of Naples. The NHC mentions this in every single advisory. If you've watched most hurricanes, they always seem jog a tad (or more at times) to either the east/west/north/south. Ed Rappaport said today in a CNN interview that it could be Ft. Myers, it could be Naples or it could be further south of Naples, but that with the size of the storm, you cannot focus on just the black line because most of the peninsula will feel some effects from Wilma.
Hopefully, this will end this topic. Move on and watch and wait for where this storm ends up and hope that wherever it ends up, no one suffers any major damage.





I never said the tampa bay mets i said the ones on here LET IT GO have fun and watch this storm and be happy but let it go i was talking about the semi pro mets on here/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Here it comes! [Re: damejune2]
      #62277 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:07 PM

Quote:

Thunderbird - I was watching TWC and they said something the other day about the upper levels of the storm being swept NE faster than the lower levels. Could this be what is happening now? What happens when a storm such as this has it's head taken off? Can it survive without that upper level feature?




It sounds like TWC was talking about the effects of strong wind shear (stronger winds at upper-levels compared to the lower-levels) on the system. That doesn't seem to be occurring yet... the strong wind shear probably won't set in until later tonight, though there may not be enough time for the shear to weaken the system signifcantly before it reaches Florida. Right now, Wilma still seems to be struggling with the effects of being over land for such a long time, which disrupted its inner circulation.

Weaker systems actually can have their mid-level circulations disconnected from the surface circulation due to strong wind shear... which inevitably leads to dissipation. That won't happen in a strong system such as Wilma, instead Wilma will eventually develop into more of a non-tropical low pressure system thanks to the effects of shear and also interacting with a cold front.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Here it comes! [Re: chase 22]
      #62279 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:07 PM

Chase - No disrespect to you, but wouldn't the NHC and other outlets have an update if in fact the storm was moving NNE and changing paths? The 2pm update still says NE @ 12 MPH. I am confused.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62280 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:08 PM

Well, i know I said it earlier. The bands have been very slow in their approach to Key West. Looks like the band is finally within an hour of really giving Key West a good dose of rain. The next band, that will be a number of hours later, appear more potent. I would not be surprised to see a tornado watch issued within the hour based upon the the discussion from SPC.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: posting rules [Re: HanKFranK]
      #62281 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:10 PM

Checking the sat images occasionally inbetween laundry and changing out the closet (we came close to snow flurries last night), and it appears that the attempts to pull tog the inner eye have not amounted to anything...not too much convection firing off there anymore and that area is starting to clear out again. The outer eyewall, while complete, does not have a continuous strong band of convection encircling it, although it is getting more defined (the temp diff is probably incrsng), and that band is thickening (been looking at the 85ghz off and on since 11am).

In fact there's not much else besides this outer eyewall that isn't reduced down to TS strength...but that didn't deter Wilma before from having a strong core. Earlier this morning (about 3am) the outer windfield had built up and was looking better, but that's mostly gone now.

On visual the eye is starting to show that it's clearing out, but the change on wv within the eye isn't that impressive yet, although the surrounding eyewall is showing cooler cloud tops. She's starting to touch the edges of the loop current now. I think we'll start to see the eye come together later in the afternoon, and once that happens, she could intensify quickly for a short time. Overall...she continues to look better, not worse, but improvement is happening very slowly, and is in terms of organization, not increased windspeed.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62284 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:13 PM

Quote:

Weaker systems actually can have their mid-level circulations disconnected from the surface circulation due to strong wind shear... which inevitably leads to dissipation.




Not always. The LLC can be very tenacious. I think we had one this year that came back for awhile before conditions finally became too hostile, but can't remember offhand which one it was.

Not a factor for Wilma in any case.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Here it comes! [Re: damejune2]
      #62286 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:15 PM

Quote:

Chase - No disrespect to you, but wouldn't the NHC and other outlets have an update if in fact the storm was moving NNE and changing paths? The 2pm update still says NE @ 12 MPH. I am confused.




No: what I was saying is that the cold front did in fact retreat, thus reverting to a warm front. I am not implying that Wilma is or will turn to the N, NW, or NNW. There is just simply no meteorological data to back up that drastic of a change. I simply read the post and assumed that the NW direction they were refering to was a typo. I believe that Wilma will hit FL late tonight.

Is it possible for Wilma to turn North? Yes, but likely? probably not. Take a look at Genesis post a couple of pages back. It is very informative, and will answer your question better than I can.

Sorry for the confusion

--------------------
Matt


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
Re: Here it comes! *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: damejune2]
      #62287 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:19 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Mayor of Moronia]
      #62288 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:23 PM

I'm sorry, but I can't resist.....
Quoting Larry The Cable Guy:
"Now that's funny right there, I don't care who you are"

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Here it comes! [Re: FireAng85]
      #62289 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:24 PM

well its not often durning a season we see a floater on two systems... pretty shot here
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-rgb-loop.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
Re: posting rules [Re: Margie]
      #62290 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:25 PM

When Dennis Phillips noted the change in Charleys course it took the NHC a little while to confirm it. Looking at the movie loop of Wilma there seems to be a northward bump at the end of the loop. But we'll see! Wilma wont be the first storm to deviate from the projected path, if this is happening.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
zacker20
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 27
Re: Here it comes! [Re: FireAng85]
      #62291 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:25 PM

The Tampa area will feel very little effects from Wilma. Trust me.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Nutmeg
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Loc: New England
Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m. [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62292 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:27 PM


Quote:

anyway....where are all the new england users/mets?




New England here! And have been watching closely for days now. We are aware and very concerned. I've been through hurricanes in the tropics and through nor'easters in New England...have profound respect for both!

As things develop I will start posting more. Meanwhile, all good thoughts from the Nutmeg State (Connecticut) to our friends in Florida and our prayers for recovery to the Yucatan.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 489
Loc: Tampa
Re: Here it comes! [Re: chase 22]
      #62293 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:27 PM

Not to pile on, it is Sunday LOL, but to me it appears that the front has move deeper into Fl than it was this morning, at least the Eastern portion of Fl, looks like it wants to go to Lake Ocha

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Joshua
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: Here it comes! [Re: zacker20]
      #62294 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:29 PM

Quote:

The Tampa area will feel very little effects from Wilma. Trust me.




Actually, check NWS tonight for a new forecast. Ed Rappaport was just quoted on the local news as saying that, "the circulation is expanding." So, that means the TS force winds may extend out FURTHER than previously forecast.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Here it comes! [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #62295 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:30 PM

URNT12 KNHC 231918
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/19:05:40Z
B. 23 deg 19 min N
085 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 2769 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 341 deg 071 kt
G. 260 deg 039 nm
H. 961 mb
I. 13 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3046 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. 55
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF304 2124A Wilma OB 27
MAX FL WIND 96 KT S QUAD 17:16:40 Z
SFC CNTR 180 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
CLOUD CURVATURE DEVELOPING WITHIN EYE. STORM SHOWING MORE TILT FROM FLIGHT LEVEL TO SURFACE.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 57 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 207727

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center