Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Area for development tagged in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf), 20% development in next 5 days (may increase later into next week)
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 226 (Zeta) , Major: 289 (Laura) Florida - Any: 975 (Michael) Major: 975 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | >> (show all)
jeangfl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Thoughts [Re: KC]
      #62021 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:37 AM

Thanks KC - we're from Ft. Myers - have been up since 4:30 - waiting for someone to get on tv - think we are leaving for Orlando before 9 a.m. - hoping for the best - good luck to you!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Joshua
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: Thoughts [Re: jeangfl]
      #62022 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:41 AM

On color IR satellite imagery, it looks as if cloud tops around the inner eyewall are both starting to wrap around the center and are getting colder. Anyone else agree on this one? It may be slightly strengthening. Anyone know when the next recon fix is?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Thoughts [Re: Joshua]
      #62023 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:53 AM

Quote:

On color IR satellite imagery, it looks as if cloud tops around the inner eyewall are both starting to wrap around the center and are getting colder. Anyone else agree on this one? It may be slightly strengthening. Anyone know when the next recon fix is?



its looking better organized.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Thoughts [Re: jlauderdal]
      #62024 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:08 AM

Here is a blurb from local forecast NWS, on the cold front. It says it will come to the local area and then start to back up. Would this have a pulling effect on the hurricane to pull more north? Just asking.

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO LEVY COUNTY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT SOUTH TO JUST
NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF Wilma.
COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF Wilma WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY
WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: Thoughts [Re: jlauderdal]
      #62025 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:21 AM

Wilma is looking slightly better organized this morning, and with warm water ahead of it, it could intensity a little more during the next 12 hours. However, with dry air continuing to intrude in the storm, and progressively more shear, I expect that the storm should not intensify much more. Because the storm is moving along with the shear--not against it--there should not be any significant weakening. Local TV mets here in Tampa are nitpicking every little wobble of the center, but based on my interpretation of the latest IR imagery, it still looks like Wilma is on track for a Naples landfall. It also appears that Wilma is starting to accelerate a little more.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 902
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Thoughts [Re: Ronn]
      #62026 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:24 AM

Looks like a wobble to me. With the situation basically unchanged for several advisories, I guess they have to focus on something to fill air time.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 1/0/0


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jeangfl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Thoughts [Re: MichaelA]
      #62027 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:33 AM

thanks everyone for all of the great info - will be shutting computer down and leaving FM within the hour - best of luck and be safe - Jean G.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ZooKeeper
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 24
Loc: Live in Chiefland & work in Ce...
Re: Thoughts [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #62028 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:33 AM

I can confirm the front is definitely moving in. I'm about halfway between Cedar Key and Chiefland and the current temp is only about 65 degrees. Yesterday at the same ime we were in the 70's. The sun is starting to come up though so I don't think we'll go any lower.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jusforsean
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc: Broward County
Re: Thoughts [Re: MichaelA]
      #62029 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:34 AM

Goodmorning all.... Like me I am sure everyone slept with one eye on Wilma. I know it's coming because this morning my asthma is really bad , always before a storm! Either way Just wanted to post that last night I say a weather man I think Don on 10 talking about the potential for stronger than usual tornadoes with this one ie. F2 150+ wind the potential is there he says and with that I also say how packed the streets in the Keys were and how many people were staying. A huricane is one thing bad enough but add the risk for tornadoes. I would hope that anyone in the keys left would reconsider they said they had about 10 hours before conditions worsen. Just wanted to throw it our there for anyone who might not be aware. My hubby really wanted to drive out of the state today , the idea is tempting but with 3 kids under 7 and 2 dogs I dont think we would get very far. But I will be leaving my mobile home to fend for herself here. Scary because the winds are coming from a different direction this time, not good for my house! Everyone stay safe.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
Re: Thoughts [Re: jusforsean]
      #62030 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:38 AM

woke up track shifted south models even more south plus no wobble its moving NE.

Looks to me to take it below Naples.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 902
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Thoughts [Re: jusforsean]
      #62031 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:39 AM

Key West long range radar is showing the first feeder band sweeping across western Cuba this morning.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 1/0/0


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Thoughts [Re: jusforsean]
      #62032 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:43 AM

Quote:

Goodmorning all.... Like me I am sure everyone slept with one eye on Wilma. I know it's coming because this morning my asthma is really bad , always before a storm! Either way Just wanted to post that last night I say a weather man I think Don on 10 talking about the potential for stronger than usual tornadoes with this one ie. F2 150+ wind the potential is there he says and with that I also say how packed the streets in the Keys were and how many people were staying. A huricane is one thing bad enough but add the risk for tornadoes. I would hope that anyone in the keys left would reconsider they said they had about 10 hours before conditions worsen. Just wanted to throw it our there for anyone who might not be aware. My hubby really wanted to drive out of the state today , the idea is tempting but with 3 kids under 7 and 2 dogs I dont think we would get very far. But I will be leaving my mobile home to fend for herself here. Scary because the winds are coming from a different direction this time, not good for my house! Everyone stay safe.




very good idea to evac the mobile home, no question mobile home residents need to leave if you are asked too.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StPeteBill
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
Re: Thoughts [Re: jusforsean]
      #62033 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:44 AM

Quote:

Goodmorning all.... Like me I am sure everyone slept with one eye on Wilma. I know it's coming because this morning my asthma is really bad

WOW, I never noticed or realized a correlation with the two. An asthma flare up is actually what woke me up this morning. This is the first time I have had to use my inhaler in months.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
Re: Thoughts [Re: MichaelA]
      #62034 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:45 AM

Still quiet here on the Treasure Coast. I expect we'll see this picking up toward the wee hours of monday morning. I'll be opening shelters at 1700 today so it will be a long, busy night. We're still expecting a (minimal?) Cat 1 here with winds from 60 to 80/85 depening on the exact track. The further south, the lower our winds here.

The sat this morning looks like Wilma is getting ragged. Am I mistaken thinking i'm seeing a lot of cooler, drier air cracking into her?

I'll be heading out to the Red Cross command center shortly getting our ducks in a row. My one word of wisdom is "if your government officials tell you to evacuate....DO IT!". If you have any doubt about your safety...LEAVE! We keep our shelters as safe and as "fun" as possible.

Good luck to everyone....stay dry, stay safe!

--------------------
Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
swimaway19
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
Re: Thoughts [Re: Sheeper]
      #62035 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:52 AM

How accurate do you think this Wunderground weather map is? It shows the cold front to be already south of Tampa. I know the front is predicted to retreat north again, but was it expected to go this far south?



http://www.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/2xpxFronts.html

--------------------
Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
Re: Thoughts [Re: Sheeper]
      #62036 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:55 AM

The 06 GFS has it coming in around FT Myers now and i look for the track to move more south.Plus i don't see cat 3 in sight so Good news on all ends.Keep watch but this storm looks to be headed south oer model runs see ya later today.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StPeteBill
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
Re: Thoughts [Re: swimaway19]
      #62037 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:56 AM

I sure don't think it has passed. I am in St Pete and the temperature at my house right now is 79 degrees and muggy as all get out.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
maddie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 15
Loc: Port Richey, Florida
Re: Thoughts [Re: StPeteBill]
      #62038 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:57 AM

Yep having problems with my asthma this morning to....doesn't help that my air conditioner went last night so its a tad warm here, would welcome a little breeze here but not to much, lol....from what I am getting from the local stations they seem to think we will be in the clear as far as landfall is concerned...do all of you guys agree that a more northward shift is less likely?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
Re: Thoughts [Re: Rdietch]
      #62039 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:58 AM

06 NOGAPS has it going over the Keys. GFS is now the only major model north of Marco. She's going to start interacting with Western Cuba soon too. Dry air west, shear from the north, and land to the east should keep her down.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
Re: Thoughts [Re: swimaway19]
      #62040 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:59 AM

Quote:

How accurate do you think this Wunderground weather map is? It shows the cold front to be already south of Tampa. I know the front is predicted to retreat north again, but was it expected to go this far south?
Quote:



The front isn't that far south yet. I'm in Hernando County and we are 74, humidity at 95%, dewpoint is 73. The wind is northeast and very light, almost calm.

I've been outside a couple of times this a.m. and it feels like it did last night -- sticky. So it hasn't gotten to me yet, let alone Tampa.

Edited by ChessieStorm (Sun Oct 23 2005 07:59 AM)

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 49 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 207722

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center