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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Thoughts [Re: emackl]
      #62086 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:38 AM

Quote:

"Maybe" he said that because of the 5:00 disco

MOST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER

That's all I can think of. Otherwise, a west coast landfall should result in the south side being most intense.




Everything I've seen/heard has been that this storm is unusual and the most rain will be on the north side. They also indicated that due to the cold front, the windfield will expand more on the north side this time.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Thoughts [Re: emackl]
      #62087 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:39 AM

The south side will be more intense at landfall becuase the speed of storm movement is added to the relative windspeed in the south and subtracted from the relative windspeed in the north. However, in terms of convection, and thus potentially embedded tornados and such, the north side is more intense from the pure convection standpoint.

We're argueing over "more intense" when some people are using intense relative to convection and others are using intense relative to windspeed, and then trying to compare them. Just doesn't work - two different elements of intense


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ShelleyMcD
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: SRQ
Re: Thoughts [Re: Sadie]
      #62088 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:43 AM

Sadie-
I know that the Tampa NBC and FOX stations were showing their VIPIR models, and both had Wilma as a significant rain event for the NORTH side of the system. I can only assume that this has something to do with the warm wet air of Wilma slamming into the cold front. There has been some disparity between locals and NHC as to whether that will mean severe thunderstorms/tornadic activity. Do any of you mets/mods have any insight? Not to imply that it's going to be worse for the folks on the north side of the storm than being in the strike zone, just a different type of event. (Boy, does that describe this whole season, or what?!?)

--------------------
Self-Confessed Control Freak
(I know I can't control what will happen, but I can control how much I understand about it!)


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Thoughts [Re: Random Chaos]
      #62089 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:50 AM

Good Job Random...LOL! Your exactly right about that. North or south, it will be two different events.

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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Re: Thoughts [Re: ShelleyMcD]
      #62090 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:52 AM

Since you are talking about Tampa area, the Hurricane Statement for that area is very specific:

"NO WIND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TODAY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTLINE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO A GUSTY NORTHERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. "

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...Local+Statement

My suggestion is for you to continue to monitor NOAA and the NHC's advice for your area.



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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
Re: Thoughts [Re: emackl]
      #62091 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:52 AM

It looks like the northernmost area of deeper convection is moving away to the NE while the other heavy area south of that is staying with the circulation.

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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Inner Core [Re: evergladesangler]
      #62092 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:56 AM

Looks like Wilma is trying hard to regain her inner core/eyewall, as evidenced by this recent water vapor loop:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/archive/javawv1.html


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ShelleyMcD
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: SRQ
Re: Thoughts [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62093 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:00 AM

Thanks, Red-- I'm following Tampa, but really in Sarasota. Sarasota's under voluntary evac (that may change with the newsconference @ 10 a.m), but either way, I'm on higher ground.

Trying to determine what Wilma will mean for those of not in the strike zone-- my house becomes an island for a bit after a 5+" downpour*- may have to park up at the local Publix if that is expected.

*Found that out in March '01.

--------------------
Self-Confessed Control Freak
(I know I can't control what will happen, but I can control how much I understand about it!)


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: Inner Core [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62094 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:01 AM

Attenuation is making continued updates of this graphic unlikley.

Although once she gets closer, power permitting, I'll definitely do another run at this from a FL-based radar.

I'll be out and about later today and may be gone at some point until later this evening, but I'll definitely be active over the span of Wilma's final approach.



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Addicted2Cane
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 13
Loc:
Re: Inner Core [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62095 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:02 AM

Any input on what can be expected if anything on the north side of the approaching front? As I understand it the front is located close to Cedar Key at this time. Will the backside of the front be protected? .... Thanks

--------------------
Where is the wind and rain...I NEED to sleep!!


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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Thoughts [Re: ShelleyMcD]
      #62096 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:05 AM

Arch Kennedy on Orlando's Channel 9 was showing their predictor tool thing this morning and it shows something very intense coming in around Tampa and scooting northeast across the state. I wish I could remember the name of their model thing they use, but it is escaping me right now.

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Heavier Rain North of the center [Re: Addicted2Cane]
      #62098 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:07 AM

From Miami NWS
...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IS COLLIER COUNTY...PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Terry Johnson
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 11
Loc: Tarpon Springs, FL
Re: Thoughts [Re: FireAng85]
      #62099 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:08 AM

Could it be VIPER??

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 489
Loc: Tampa
Re: Thoughts [Re: ShelleyMcD]
      #62100 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:08 AM

We can certainly hope for some interaction w/ Cuba on the Very Mountainous West side. I believe the elevations there, someone correct me if I am wrong is at least 11,000 feet

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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ShelleyMcD
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: SRQ
Re: Thoughts-Sarasota County [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #62103 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:15 AM

Even though we're well to the north of the NHC forecast track, Sarasota has gone to Level 1 Evac.
Schools are closed Monday, as are many city offices.
The official release will be posted at:
http://www.scgov.net/stormcenter

They're still in the middle of the conference.

--------------------
Self-Confessed Control Freak
(I know I can't control what will happen, but I can control how much I understand about it!)


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Thoughts-Sarasota County [Re: ShelleyMcD]
      #62104 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:23 AM

The due East motion seems to have vanished. Following the direction it is currently moving, it would put landfall right inbetween Fort Myers/Naples. I just don't see anymore continuing evidence of a Southward shift of the models or the official track. As of right now, I would say that the NHC has it nailed.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

--------------------
Matt

Edited by chase 22 (Sun Oct 23 2005 10:25 AM)


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Steeler Fan
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 13
Loc: Sarasota, FL
Re: Thoughts-Sarasota County [Re: ShelleyMcD]
      #62105 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:26 AM

Sarasota County has issued mandatory evacuations for Levels 1 and 2 areas. They are at a Level 1 full scale activation. I believe the press conference from 10:00 AM is also on-line at the storm center. Repeating the link below:

http://204.193.113.203/default.aspx?C6D2E1D5B5A9=8B9F9F

--------------------
"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." - Aristotle


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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
Eye Wall Question [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #62106 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:40 AM

When an intense hurricane partially makes land like Wilma did, and the inner eye wall loses some of its momentum and becomes obscured, do they generally undergo an eye wall replacement cycle when they get back over water. Anotherwords, do outer bands eventually become the next inner eye wall, or does the original inner eye wall typically just redevelop (given enough time back over warm water)?

I've been curious about this since Wima left the tip of the Yucutan, and I was hoping one of the experts might help shed some light on it (hopefully this is the right forum for this question). Thanks.

Also, you may have already seen this link, but I just stumbled onto it. You can animate all the Channels of the GOES-12 at the same time. Pretty interesting.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/realtime/grtmain.html


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ShelleyMcD
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: SRQ
Re: Thoughts-Sarasota County [Re: Steeler Fan]
      #62107 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:40 AM

Sorry! I mispoke-
it's mandatory for mobile homes in Sarasota County
still voluntary for zones 1 & 2.
The Media Release is clearer than the news conference was.

--------------------
Self-Confessed Control Freak
(I know I can't control what will happen, but I can control how much I understand about it!)


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Tracey
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Re: Inner Core [Re: tpratch]
      #62108 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:45 AM

I understand there is a stationary front extending from near tampa across the state to about the cape as shown on the image below. However, can someone tell me why that front isn't shown on the wv images also shown below

front image: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif
WV image: http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.html
usually I can see the fronts, this one I can't. Anyone know why?????


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