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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 274 (Idalia) , Major: 274 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 274 (Idalia) Major: 274 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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FireAng85
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Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Thoughts [Re: Terry Johnson]
      #62109 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:46 PM

No, they don't use VIPIR.....It's similiar but not VIPIR.

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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FireAng85
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Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Thoughts [Re: FireAng85]
      #62110 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:48 PM

I think they call it Early Warning Future Track or something like that.

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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Joshua
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: Eye Wall Question [Re: Geoff]
      #62111 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:49 PM

Quote:

When an intense hurricane partially makes land like Wilma did, and the inner eye wall loses some of its momentum and becomes obscured, do they generally undergo an eye wall replacement cycle when they get back over water. Anotherwords, do outer bands eventually become the next inner eye wall, or does the original inner eye wall typically just redevelop (given enough time back over warm water)?

I've been curious about this since Wima left the tip of the Yucutan, and I was hoping one of the experts might help shed some light on it (hopefully this is the right forum for this question). Thanks.

Also, you may have already seen this link, but I just stumbled onto it. You can animate all the Channels of the GOES-12 at the same time. Pretty interesting.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/realtime/grtmain.html




I don't think Wilma is currently undergoing an ERC right now, as it just finished the one earlier this morning from when it was over land. RIght now, it seems as if she is trying to recover from land. This may or may not happen before landfall in Florida.

1. She has picked up some speed this morning (from 2 MPH to 8 MPH, may even go up at 11AM)
2. She is currently over the loop current, but depending on the vertical sheer at the present, she may or may not pick up any strength from that. At the very least, she will remain a Cat 2 for the present time.


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evergladesangler
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COC jogging east again [Re: FireAng85]
      #62112 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:49 PM

You can see it on this loop:

http://beta.accuweather.com/radar-large....oop&type=RS


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Katrina evacuees moving again.... [Re: FireAng85]
      #62113 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:50 PM

Katrina evacuees are moving again, this time in Boynton Beach, FL as another hurricane follows them.

Among those headed for shelters are 117 evacuees from August's devastating Hurricane Katrina, Dimke said. Their refuge at Palm Meadows, a horse-training center west of Boynton Beach, has some rooms that lack hurricane shutters, he said. Courtesy Sun-Sentinel.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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swimaway19
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Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
11 AM Advisory [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #62114 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:53 PM

11 AM Advisory just in. Here are the vitals:


At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 22.7 north... longitude 85.8 west or about 285
miles... 460 km... west-southwest of Key West Florida... or about
340 miles... 545 km... southwest of the southwestern coast of the
Florida Peninsula.


Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A
gradual increase in forward speed is expected today and tonight.


Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some strengthening is possible today or tonight.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.

--------------------
Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....



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efaulkSWFLA
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Fort Myers, Florida
Re: 11 AM Advisory [Re: swimaway19]
      #62115 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:57 PM

Does anyone know with regards to the last two updates how true the ne motion is? Is it more ene or really ne? just curious...

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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: 11 AM Advisory [Re: swimaway19]
      #62116 - Sun Oct 23 2005 02:58 PM

Slight south shift at 11:00. Landfall just south of Marco Island 24 hours from now. Seems about right. maybe 20-30 miles either side would be best bet. However, with a diffuse storm, center point will not be as critical. Most models show heavy rain will be in the north becuase of interaction with the front. Heavier wind will be in the south. Either way, a messy day for Florida tomorrow.

--------------------
Jim


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chase 22
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Re: 11 AM Advisory [Re: efaulkSWFLA]
      #62117 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:00 PM

Quote:

Does anyone know with regards to the last two updates how true the ne motion is? Is it more ene or really ne? just curious...




Looks to be NE

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

--------------------
Matt


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emackl
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Indianapolis
Re: 11 AM Advisory [Re: efaulkSWFLA]
      #62118 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:01 PM

Judging by the vis loop she looks to be going ne. Wobbles here and there but over all a ne motion. She looks that way to me anyway.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html


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efaulkSWFLA
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Fort Myers, Florida
Re: 11 AM Advisory [Re: chase 22]
      #62119 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:02 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Does anyone know with regards to the last two updates how true the ne motion is? Is it more ene or really ne? just curious...




Looks to be NE

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html




thanks Matt!


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Check out the dew points at 10 a.m. [Re: Rasvar]
      #62120 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:03 PM

Tornadoes for sure, check out the differences in the dew points from north to south:

48 Tallahassee
57 Gainesville
75 Orlando
78 West Palm Beach
81 Miami Beach

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: 11 AM Advisory [Re: chase 22]
      #62121 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:05 PM

By subtracting the distance between 5am and 11am she is moving more east than north by a tenth of a degree. She is faster than stationary but not much. Watching this system is like watching rocks grow. We know that they do but it sure is hard to see.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m. [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #62122 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:09 PM

It really looks like that front is cutting off that northery severe weather at this point, you can watch the Sats/Radar and see the intensity dissapating, not totally of course

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Joshua
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m. [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #62123 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:14 PM

The hurricane center seems to like to press in the 11AM discussion yet again that it is still possible a Category 3 storm is possible before landfall. I think this is definitely a possibility due to the inner core reorganization process. If the inner core spits out all of the dry air, and sucks up enough of the loop current energy (and trust me, the warm water is deep enough down there) it is very possible.

Can't stress enough to listen to local officials on preparedness, and all preparation should be rushed to completion as Wilma will start to effect southern Florida this evening.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Loc: Tampa
Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m. [Re: Joshua]
      #62124 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:17 PM

Oh I hear you regarding the Loop Current, we have all seen the prior TC's go through there and explode quickly. We can look and hope for that drier air to get underneath and make that Maj Cat growth unfavorable.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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ParrishNStPeteFL
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 12
Loc: Pinellas County, St. Petersbur...
Re: 11 AM Advisory [Re: swimaway19]
      #62125 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:20 PM

Hiya, can you please tell me why the mets on TV are forecasting the worst of the storm being to the south and east of eye? When I look at visuals, I see lots and lots of purple to the northwest quad, headed straight for tampa bay?


I can see now that it is storm surge they are concetnrating on, I am wondering about tornadoes and such in my area.

--------------------
The energy you emit will return to you, have grace and gratitude in all you do.
'Lil Weather Bug

Edited by ParrishNStPeteFL (Sun Oct 23 2005 03:27 PM)


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: 11 AM Advisory [Re: ParrishNStPeteFL]
      #62126 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:21 PM

Does anyone know if a decision was made on Seminole County school closures for tomorrow? They were supposed to meet at 10:30 but I have not heard of the decision.

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tpratch
Moderator


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Posts: 341
Loc: Maryland
Current motion [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #62127 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:22 PM

The current motion is far more NE than ENE. The graphic is two hours old now, but that it has been moving whithin a degree of NE is pretty evident.



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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m. [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #62128 - Sun Oct 23 2005 03:22 PM

11am Recon - the 10NM eye has officially reformed enough to be considered an eye apparently. We now have 10NM and 60NM concentric eyewalls. Winds appear way down - only recording of 67KT FL winds for 964mb pressure - thats indicates TS force surface winds with Cat 3 pressure - wow. If this thing can keep its pressure down, I'd expect the winds to recover fairly quickly once the eye becomes less ragged.

--RC

419
URNT12 KNHC 231514
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/14:58:20Z
B. 22 deg 43 min N
085 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2787 m
D. 60 kt
E. 312 deg 104 nm
F. 036 deg 067 kt
G. 306 deg 034 nm
H. 964 mb
I. 12 C/ 3047 m
J. 14 C/ 3045 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. CO10-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 2124A Wilma OB 05
MAX FL WIND 67 KT NW QUAD 14:49:00 Z
MAX WIND BAND 60NM DIAMETER WITH SMALLER EYEWALL FORMING WITHIN.


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