Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I never knew that rocks grew~I learn something new here everyday. 
I don't think the cold front has quite made it here yet, as it is muggy and humid outside. My husband and I were watching BayNews9 / ABC Action News this morning and both forecasters said that the cold front will be coming in later this afternoon or tonight. Also, ABC showed their Titan model and Wayne Shattuck said that the entire viewing area could see upwards of 2-4" of rain and 5-8" in some isolated areas. Supposed to have TS force winds here later on as approaches...which has as much to do with the hurricane as it does with the cold front moving in...and since last night Polk County is under an "Inland TS Wind Watch (now warning).
I was watching CNN this morning and they were interviewing Ed Rappaport at the . He said that the storm surge wil be worse on the south side of the storm, and of course so will the wind effects, but he said that the areas NORTH of whereever it hits will see some heavy weather also due to the cold front and 's expanding winds.
Then, of course, you had CNN's weather chick showing the expected rain rates. She said that some areas could see 12" of rain..."and that isn't too bad."
Excuse me? A foot of rain isn't "too bad"?
By this time tomorrow, we will know exactly what to expect. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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11am discussion out. Officially she's being held at a 85KT surface wind Cat 2 storm.
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Joshua
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Cloud tops look as if they are getting much more symmetrical, and they are wrapping nicely around the center. That loop current is doing a nice job at helping it to reintensify with the weak vertical shear aloft for the first 12-18 hours.
Here are a few numbers people on this board may want to utilize to ask about the storm, evacuations, school closings, etc:
Broward County - 954-831-4000
Miami-Dade County - Residents: 311 or Outside: 305-468-5900
Monroe - 800-955-5504
Collier - 239-774-8000
Lee - Residents: 211 or Outside: 239-433-3900
Any more?
Please utilize these numbers if you have ANY questions that you are unsure about. Tax payers (e.g. you) pay a lot for these lines to be up and running, so take advantage!
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willw
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
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and for the record tampa,bradenton and most of sarasota is "out of the cone" . Looks like the was right about this one. They are doing a better job then they used to.
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
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Here's a question. I'm in charge of making the decision to close the office in downtown Orlando tomorrow. I'm torn as it looks like we'll get mimimal or slightly more than minimal winds in the morning in Orlando.
Obviously a day off would be nice, but I don't want to make the wrong call. Are other places closing tomorrow in Orlando? Any word on schools?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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The merging of and the cold front is one part of it. 's large wind field is also a part of it...and that is forecasted to expand as it meets up with the cold front which should just be near Tampa as makes landfall.
The last I heard on TV was that the hurricane force winds expanded out almost near to 70 miles; the TS winds expanded out almost 200. The good news is that the further out the Hurricane force winds are, the weaker the storm. If the eye tightens up again, it will be reintensifying. Which they are saying that's what it is supposed to do, but who knows at this point.
BayNews9 does a good job of explaining why we are supposed to get the windy and wet weather in the Tampa Bay viewing area. Maybe he can explain it better than I can.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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marknccbch
Registered User
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Posts: 6
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Titusville prepares for
In preparation for the arrival of Hurricane , the Titusville Emergency Operations Center would like to make a few announcements.
1. The Emergency Operation Center will be upgrading from a monitoring level to a level two activation. A level two activation is a partial activation of the Cities Emergency Operations Center - This is limited agency activation. All primary, or lead, Emergency Support Functions are notified. Office of Emergency Management personnel and necessary Emergency Support Functions will staff the Cities Emergency Operations Center, as of 11:00 AM Sunday.
2. Hotline- The established Hurricane HOTLINE for the City of Titusville EOC will be 321-264-4024. This line will start being staffed as of 11:00 AM Sunday.
3. Shelters - There will be three shelters opening in Titusville on Sunday at 10 am.
a. Red Cross Shelters
i. Imperial Estates Elementary School, 5525 Kathy Drive, South Titusville
b. Special Needs Shelters (Assisted Care AC/Enhanced Care EC)
i. Oak Park Elementary-AC, 3395 Dairy Road, Titusville
ii. Parrish Medical Center-EC, 951 N Washington Ave, Titusville
4. Mandatory Evacuation - The Brevard County Board of County Commissioners has declared a mandatory evacuation, effective at 10 a.m. Sunday of all mobile homes and manufactured housing in the county. We do not anticipate an evacuation of the barrier islands.
5. Closings - Brevard County public schools, the Brevard Campus of the University of Central Florida, Brevard Community College, all county government offices and YMCA will be closed Monday, October 24, based on current wind and weather forecasts.
Palm Bay under state of emergency
The City of Palm Bay is under a local State of Emergency as signed and declared by Mayor John Mazziotti. The threat of Hurricane is being monitored and residents should be prepared to take necessary precautions for probable impacts from this storm.
LOCAL IMPACTS:
The forecast track continues to push Hurricane towards the West Coast of Florida and exiting the East Coast . The City of Palm Bay is currently under a Hurricane Watch that covers the entire East Coast of Florida from Titusville south. Tropical storm force winds and some hurricane force wind gusts could be felt in Palm Bay and surrounding areas as early as Monday morning.
MANDATORY EVACUATION:
Beginning at 10 a.m. Sunday, residents living in manufactured and mobile homes are under a mandatory evacuation order by Brevard County Palm Bay Police will be enforcing this order to affected residents in the City.
CITY OFFICES CLOSED TO PUBLIC
All City offices will be closed to the public on Monday and all recreational programs cancelled. All scheduled board meetings and council meetings are cancelled.
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER/CITY EMPLOYEES
Palm Bay’s Emergency Operations Center will be under partial activation beginning Monday morning at 5 a.m.. All non-essential City employees are NOT to report to work on Monday. All Code-1 City employees are to report in as designated by their supervisors. City employees may contact 321-409-6363 for continuous updates.
Brevard public schools cancel Monday classes
The Brevard County school district decided today to cancel Monday classes for all public schools.
Here is the release from the school system:
Viera - Based on the latest forecast of Hurricane currently moving in the Gulf of Mexico and expecting to make landfall in South Florida, Brevard Public Schools will be closed on Monday, October 24th. All activities associated with the public schools, including after school care programs and athletic activities, are canceled as well.
The following schools will be opened at 10 a.m. on Sunday, October 23rd for sheltering:
General Population Shelters:
Bayside High School, 1901 DeGroodt, Palm Bay
Eau Gallie High School, 1400 Commodore Blvd, Melbourne
Manatee Elementary School, 3425 Solerno Blvd, Viera
Imperial Estates Elementary School, 5525 Kathy Drive, Titusville
South Mainland Community Center, 3700 Allen Avenue, Micco
The district’s Public Information Hotline (321) 633-1000, ext. 797 will be updated as well as the Web site.
Latest from Brevard County Emergency Management
Saturday, 4 p.m.
Mandatory Evacuation
The Brevard County Board of County Commissioners has declared a mandatory evacuation, effective at 10 a.m. Sunday, October 23, of all mobile homes and manufactured housing in the county. We do not anticipate an evacuation of the barrier islands.
Closings
Brevard County public schools, the Brevard Campus of the University of Central Florida, Brevard Community College, all county government offices and YMCA will be closed Monday, October 24, based on current wind and weather forecasts.
Shelters
Shelters will open at 10 a.m. on Sunday, October 23. Residents are reminded not to arrive at any shelter prior to 10 a.m.
General population shelters are as follows:
Imperial Estates Elementary School, 5525 Kathy Drive, Titusville
Manatee Elementary School, 3425 Solerno Blvd, Viera
Eau Gallie High School, 1400 Commodore Blvd, Melbourne
Bayside High School, 1901 DeGroodt, Palm Bay
South Mainland Community Center, 3700 Allen Avenue, Micco
Residents who evacuate to shelters are reminded to bring any needed medications and/or medical equipment, bedding, personal hygiene items, and three days worth of food with them.
For updated information in Brevard County, call 211.
Saturday, 11 a.m.
Special Needs
People living in manufactured or mobile homes who are registered with Brevard County’s Special Needs program, will be notified today that special needs shelters will open at 10 a.m. on Sunday and that normal transportation methods will be put in place, beginning at 9 a.m. on Sunday.
Those who have their own transportation are cautioned not to arrive before 10 a.m. when the special needs shelters open.
Residents who evacuate to special needs shelters are reminded to bring any needed medications and/or medical equipment, bedding, personal hygiene items, and three days worth of food with them.
To join the Special Needs Registry, call (321) 637-4088 or 637-6661.
General Population
Based on the current forecast, we are planning to open shelters for residents of mobile homes and manufactured housing. We anticipate evacuation of mobile homes and manufactured housing areas Sunday, and a decision on the exact location of shelters will be made later today.
We do not anticipate an evacuation of the barrier islands.
Residents who evacuate to shelters are reminded to bring any needed medications and/or medical equipment, bedding, personal hygiene items, and three days worth of food with them.
For updated information in Brevard County, call 211.
What's canceled in Brevard
Uncertainty about the weather this weekend prompted organizers and officials to call off a number of events. Among the events called off by Friday night were:
ComeUnity’s SoulFest at Provost Park likely will be rescheduled in early 2006.
Paws in the Park has been rescheduled for Nov. 19. Call 255-4400 or 636-3343, ext. 204 for details.
Titusville Fire and Emergency Services has canceled a Sunday memorial service for fallen firefighters. A rescheduled date has not been decided. The event will honor the 117 U.S. firefighters who lost their lives in the line of duty in 2004.
Palm Bay’s 6th annual Night Out was canceled. The event, planned for tonight, is scheduled to return in 2006.
Classes at Keiser College will be closed Monday in Orlando and Melbourne. The Daytona Beach campus is scheduled to open as usual.
A golf tournament today at Aquarina in Melbourne Beach and dog wash Sunday to benefit the Central Brevard Humane Society have been postponed. The tournament was rescheduled for Nov. 5; the dog wash for Nov. 20. For information, call 636-3343.
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To notify the public of a canceled weekend event, please contact Florida Today’s community desk at Community@flatoday.net or leave a message at 242-3567.
Indian River County shelters
SEBASTIAN - Indian River County's emergency services expects to open five of its primary shelters during Hurricane , but officials Friday morning couldn't say when they would open.
Shelters in schools for this storm will be:
Liberty Magnet, 8955 85th St., Sebastian-special needs
Sebastian River Middle, 9400 County Road 512, Sebastian
Fellsmere Elementary, 50 N. Cypress St., Fellsmere
Oslo Middle, 480 20th Ave. SW, Vero Beach
Freshman Learning Center, 1507 19th St., Vero Beach.
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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Still no word from Lake or Orange County as far as school closings or anything else for that matter. I'm waiting to see here in Lake county myself.
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Valencia Community College is closed, and I anticipate that Orlando and Osceola Schools will close too.. Not sure about Seminal. Brevard county schools as well as Polk county are closed.
Surely the safety of your employees should be the most important concern. Orange County is under a Inland Hurricane Warning. What do you think ?
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Joshua
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Quote:
Here's a question. I'm in charge of making the decision to close the office in downtown Orlando tomorrow. I'm torn as it looks like we'll get mimimal or slightly more than minimal winds in the morning in Orlando.
Obviously a day off would be nice, but I don't want to make the wrong call. Are other places closing tomorrow in Orlando? Any word on schools?
The NWS is forecasting NE winds of 45-55MPH with higher gusts on Monday. This may be a bit dangerous for people to drive out in, but your best bet would be to call the Orange County EOC hotline. Here is the number:
311 if you're a resident, unknown otherwise.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I call it the cone of stupidity. Because, we know that changed course at the last minute it seems. Also, I want to remind people that there are 70 miles in one degree of longitude and that you should do the math for your area if you know your lattitude and longitude. Remember that hurricanes do not stop at traffic lights nor follow construction curves around cities. So if your concept of distance from one point to another is based on car miles, then your arithmetic may mislead you.The storm has not finished developing yet and the final word from the has not been said. There is still approximately 18 hours to go before the storm will be near Florida, unless she picks up speed greater than 8 miles per hour. I believe the guidance is the best we have, and I also believe that the only reason some local meterologists are not working there is because the government isn't hiring right now. But, we have fine people guiding us and you can tell by the comments and the researchable knowledge that they are telling us the best information we can get.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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R-U-Q-R-U
Registered User
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Posts: 3
Loc: Seminole County
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I notice the 11:22 AM track on the Accuweather site is north of and way north of most models. How good are they?
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age234
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 22
Loc: Winter Park
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I'm still waiting on Full Sail's (winter park) descision, which they're supposed to make by noon. I personally think they should close down, but that's just me.
Here's Accuweather's wind forecast for Orlando tomorrow:
Winds: NW at 57 mph
Wind Gusts: 127 mph (cat 3 strength!)
And we have a hurricane warning, so, I don't know.
As for Accuweather's hurricane track, Joe Bastardi was on the Glenn Beck Program last week, and he said he doesn't necessarily follow the , because he likes to look at historical analogs before going to the computer models. I don't know if that's smart or not, but that's what he does (and may explain why his predicted path was going south of Miami a few days ago).
Edited by age234 (Sun Oct 23 2005 11:39 AM)
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Joshua
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Recon meteorologists have found a 60NM outer eyewall, and they see an inner eyewall forming. This means the storm is poised to strengthen. The inner eyewall is trying to form 10NM wide, and it is currently open to the NW. We'll see if it closes before the 2 or 5PM advisories and strengthens.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 456
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Conditions here is southwestern Seminole county: Humidy = 94%, Temperature = 77 F. Presure = 1012.
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Joshua
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Quote:
I'm still waiting on Full Sail's (winter park) descision, which they're supposed to make by noon. I personally think they should close down, but that's just me.
Here's Accuweather's wind forecast for Orlando tomorrow:
Winds: NW at 57 mph
Wind Gusts: 127 mph (cat 3 strength!)
And we have a hurricane warning, so, I don't know.
Accuweather is seriously hyped, and I would really try to stay away from making decisions based on their site. Go to http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ for your best information.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Accuweather is pretty good. I think they pretty much nailed and Jeanne last year, and even though didn't actually make landfall in N.O., JB was right on in his earlier predictions that would be a deadly storm for N.O.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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Just look at the trend of the airflow from and you will see that it is gradually edging further north. That suggests to me that will do the same over the next 24 hours.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
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Ok, will never ask this question again but what can we honestly expect to see in St Pete/Tampa area?
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ParrishNStPeteFL
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Pinellas County, St. Petersbur...
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Ditto!! Please enlighten us
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The energy you emit will return to you, have grace and gratitude in all you do.
'Lil Weather Bug
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