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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Sneakbridge
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Highlands County, Florida
Re: Key West [Re: BabyCat]
      #62617 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:33 PM

I was listening to the news earlier and they said 90% did not evacuate, as opposed to Marco where 90% of the population did evacuate. Don't ask me where they got their #s.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Key West [Re: BabyCat]
      #62618 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:35 PM

Derek Ortt said earlier on Hurricane City that only 15% of the people left the Keys. He said unfortunately the death toll could be very high!!!! He said a number that I don't want to repeat. There is no where to go when the water starts rising.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Key West [Re: Sneakbridge]
      #62620 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:39 PM

High gust here so far was 32mph.People are still parting here,although the cat3 upgrade did seem to sober the mood.I will be up most of the night,as I want to see how strong she will get.I can not do more than I have already done.It's hunker down time.Good luck to all.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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royener
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 11
Loc: Clearwater, FL
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: shrinkdoc weather watcher]
      #62622 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:41 PM

I was looking at the IR Floater Loop and was wondering if the definate line to the NW was a system acting on Wilma. It is showing a definate cut off, is this squeezing the storm further south?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Key West [Re: BabyCat]
      #62623 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:44 PM

I did hear on two different radio stations that only 20% of the residents in the Keys left the island. They showed some footage of people partying at various bars in Key West. They just mentioned about an hour ago that they are "no longer partying here."
Steve Jerve just went through when and what affects we will feel in each county.
Since I live in Polk, here's what he said:

9AM - 2PM :
Squalls/Tornados
Winds 30-50mph === possibility of being sustained winds
Gust to 60 possible.

So, I think maybe those of us in Polk county may be able to get some sleep tonight instead of waiting another 7 hours!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: royener]
      #62624 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:47 PM

Rain is just starting at my house (Naples - inland) so I ran the dogs out one last time - don't know when they'll get their next trip. The dogs and I are ready to move into the closet; husband is sleeping - glad to hear I don't have the only one sleeping tonight! Don't know how much longer we'll have power, so it's probably time to head back to the other side of the house. Thanks for all of the info tonight!

Karen


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Key West [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #62625 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:50 PM

Well, unfortunately, a lot of people decide not to leave when told to do so. I hate to hear that the death toll could be high, but if people didn't learn from Katrina, than I don't think they will ever learn. So now instead of dealing with a Cat 1, there are a lot of people who will be dealing with a low-to-mid Cat 3. I just hope those people who were partying will have enough sobriety left to deal with what is going to be a very dangerous situation.
I have little sympathy for those who are offered ways out but instead decide to stay and "ride it out", especially after the horrible toll that Katrina left in her wake in AL, MS, and LA.
That may sound cold, but it's the truth.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 489
Loc: Tampa
Re: Key West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62626 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:51 PM

WFUS52 KMLB 240345
TORMLB
FLC069-240445-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0026.051024T0342Z-051024T0445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1142 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TAVARES...HOWEY IN THE HILLS...
GROVELAND...FERNDALE...EUSTIS

* UNTIL 1245 AM EDT

* AT 1141 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER
CLERMONT... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
FERNDALE BY MIDNIGHT EDT
LITTLE LAKE HARRIS AND HOWEY IN THE HILLS BY 1230 AM EDT
6 MILES SOUTH OF TAVARES BY 1245 AM EDT

TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN WRAPPED IN
HEAVY RAIN AND ARE HARD TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY ARE VERY CLOSE. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT OFFGUARD!

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR
CLOSET AND KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR
BODY.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN.

LAT...LON 2854 8191 2847 8176 2848 8166 2886 8166
2886 8177

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: KC]
      #62627 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:52 PM

The local mets here are saying I can expect 6 hours of 75+ winds,a good chance of 100+ winds.Also said Palm and Broward counties will get the worst here on the east coast.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Key West [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #62628 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:53 PM

Hey Bob,

I'll be here all night with you. Looks like we are both going to get clobbered. Hurricane City program had 112 mph worst winds for me around 9 a.m. They said worst hurricane for you guys in Broward since 1964. They had the track going over the Palm Beach/Broward line. Pressure really starting to drop now. Down .05" in just the last hour to 29.59". Peak wind only 23 mph and no rain yet.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Key West [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #62629 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:56 PM

I really hate to even ask this,But what are the chances she could get to a cat 4?

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Sneakbridge
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Highlands County, Florida
Re: Key West [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #62630 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:58 PM

I'm no expert but I think the eye would really have to reduce in size quickly and get nice and tight for there to be any chance for a 4... not thinking that is going to happen... Although, Charley did surprise a lot of people too though..

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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 408
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: royener]
      #62631 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:59 PM

I don't think there any place in the Keys that is more then 2 feet above sea level! Water came over US1 (the only road in/out) in Key Largo during Katrina's Cat 1 landfall, at Cat 3 coming from the SW will be much, much worst due to the shallowness of Florida Bay and the increase winds - plus you got to factor in Wilma's forward speed... all in all this not going to be pretty in southern FL.

High tide in Key West is 1:35AM (EDT 10/24) - which will be just slightly ahead of when the eye passes close to them. For tides in other places go here: http://66.135.8.10/tideserver/LocationSelect.asp pick FL as the state, pick the date and then scroll down. Tides are listed from north to south for the east (Atlantic) side till you hit Key West. Then tides pickup at Flamingo (Florida Bay) and are listed from south to north up the west (Gulf) side of the state. Marco Island will have high tide around 4:30AM, with landfall estimated to be around 6-8AM the surge will be very high I fear. I do alot of fishing in Florida Bay and the tides are much wind driven given the shallow water.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Key West [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #62632 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:00 AM

Quote:

I really hate to even ask this,But what are the chances she could get to a cat 4?




It can't completely be ruled out, but given that it has such a large eye, it will not be prone to rapid intensity changes. It may get a little stronger from where it is now, though. It is still possible that some weakening may set in before landfall, but time is running out for any sort of major intensity changes, one way or the other.


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: Key West [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #62633 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:01 AM

She's experiencing relatively low shear, is in fairly warm waters and already made it up to Cat 3. Should her eye contract, I'd say there's a chance that she could. However, your guess is as good as mine, and the NHC's guess trumps us all If they issue an update cautioning against the possibility, then hold on tightly.

Stay safe everyone and thanks for making mod duty especially easy tonight.


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weathernut2
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Loc: Lake Wales fl
Re: Key West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62634 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:02 AM

thanks for the info on polk county. with the current track isnt it possible to make the same sudden shift as Charley did ?

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 489
Loc: Tampa
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: JMII]
      #62635 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:03 AM

Windley Key is 18 feet above sea level, but this is the highest elevation in the Florida Keys

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Key West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62636 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:03 AM

I hope they are all around to regret their choice.
I certainly don't like the graphics for the wind fields...
OR the surge forecasts...

Edited by BabyCat (Mon Oct 24 2005 12:06 AM)


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Sneakbridge
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Highlands County, Florida
Re: Key West [Re: BabyCat]
      #62637 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:05 AM

It may be very stupid, but I think that is the thinking of some people from the Keys... They ride through the storms there. I'm not saying it is intelligent, but it does seem part of the culture for parts of the population.

Edited by Sneakbridge (Mon Oct 24 2005 12:06 AM)


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Ned
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Loc: W.Coast Fl.
Re: Key West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62638 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:06 AM

Quote:

I did hear on two different radio stations that only 20% of the residents in the Keys left the island. They showed some footage of people partying at various bars in Key West. They just mentioned about an hour ago that they are "no longer partying here."
Steve Jerve just went through when and what affects we will feel in each county.
Since I live in Polk, here's what he said:

9AM - 2PM :
Squalls/Tornados
Winds 30-50mph === possibility of being sustained winds
Gust to 60 possible.

So, I think maybe those of us in Polk county may be able to get some sleep tonight instead of waiting another 7 hours!


Any word on Tampa?

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