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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Key West [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #62661 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:17 AM

Quote:

I agree Tip, I feel that the jog is especially apparent on the visible satellite. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

The angle that she comes in at is pretty significant too, as if she comes in with a more northerly angle, she could affect eastern orlando and perhaps the eastern central florida coast more, or if she comes in as currently forecast, Miami could be in for a big time hit.

Where do you currently think Wilma will make landfall? Perhaps Ft. Myers?




Hi.. Does it really matter? Such a big circulation with an eye that's a light year across...basically, where ever she make landfall she'll have a radius of distructive capacity that will engulf most of the realistate within site of the radar beam, with hurricane force gusts if not sustainers....To mention, there could be tornado swarms nested in there and virtually invisible... It's likely to be horrific... It could very well be worse then Charley because Wilma's influence will spread out over a larger area.

But...if I had to take a guess I'd say: Anywhere from Tampa all the way down the coast is under the gun; if not for the largeness of the circulation field, but because ....who's to say it can't start curving more nne? It's possible with the wv imagery showing such a powerful u/a impulse approaching from the N, that could begin in earnest.


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 458
Loc: Georgia Tech
Mezovorticies? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62662 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:18 AM

because I don't know what else to call it, the 'star like' formation inthe eye along the eyewall... is anyone seeing a possible formation like that in the latest visible sat image?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

And i know it's dark, so it's actually IR channel 2 I believe. anyway, I'm curious if that's actually happening or not, (I believe those vortices can create increased damage in the areas because of the increased wind velocity.

(they've shown tornados have the same thing occur inside them, FYI)

just wondering if people see it
-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020!

TD/TS/H/M
29/28/12/05
18/17/7/04


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Pressure Drop [Re: Margie]
      #62663 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:21 AM

I just ran the last Two Fixes out. I'm getting a heading change there.
And running the last two fixes out to the west coast , Comes ashore between Naples and Ft Myers.

Now this would be the hypothetical center.
And last Vortex is calling a 60nm Eye.

I need to recheck this.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Key West [Re: Big Tk]
      #62664 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:23 AM

Quote:

I don't see it turning at all, if anything it's moving ENE. If it keeps this track I believe she'll make landfall a tad south of the projected path




honestly...it is too soon to tell... NHC wouldn't register a course correction for 1 hour's worth of frames anyway... when i first brought that up it was more to offer an alternative point of view.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Key West [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62665 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:25 AM

Agree the damage could be worse than Charley, because it will also effect the largest population area in the state of 5-6 million people, let alone a much larger area. Plus all the possible tornadoes on top of it.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Pressure Drop [Re: danielw]
      #62666 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:27 AM

Quote:

I just ran the last Two Fixes out. I'm getting a heading change there.
And running the last two fixes out to the west coast , Comes ashore between Naples and Ft Myers.

Now this would be the hypothetical center.
And last Vortex is calling a 60nm Eye.

I need to recheck this.




Hi DanialW... I'm with on this... I'm getting some flack on this forum for even suggesting it...but the last few frames on: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml ....are suggesting a subtle differential N component to this.


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Key West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62667 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:29 AM

Colleen...how could you sleep...I'm in Atlanta and can barely sleep watching it all happen (of course I work nights...so its a little more natural for me)...
Regardless, my prayers are with all you guys down the in S. Florida. The reports you give are invaluable and the info you give to the newbies is great. There are a lot of scared people that get at leqast some comfort and direction so they dont feel so helpless

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Change [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62668 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:31 AM

I'm Using the Recon Fixes only...Not NHC fixes.

NHC averages the heading over 3-6 hours. Charley taught me to use RECON Fixes.

I am seeing a change...still working on the heading


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Pressure Drop [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62669 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:31 AM

could that not just be a wobble? Of course a wobble at this point could be crucial to landfall

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Key West [Re: Big Tk]
      #62670 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:32 AM

It appears to be a tad north of the forecast points, at least on Satellite. I do not usually look at the radar because slight changes are usually not apparent as they are with Satellite. Also I can easily see the forcast points and compare this against its location. Since at this speed you can essentially extrapolate the location of the hurricane, I took a look at the latest model output with the extrapolation and it appears it is also showing a little more northerly landfall than NHC has. Again this is an extrapolation, but when storm moves as quickly as this, there usually are not many wobbles. However, the slightest move north or east will be significant for some areas that are on the cusp of hurricane force/tropical force winds.

Not sure I am making sense as its been a long day..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Mezovorticies? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #62671 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:32 AM

I'm also seeing the eye taking on a somewhat irregular shape at times. Occasionally, you will see little appendages hanging off off the eyewall that can be associated with strong mesovortices. In this case, though, the shape may just be a side effect of the remnants of the old inner eyewall which STILL seem to be somewhat evident on satellite images.

Wilma is still deepening, but seems to be struggling to wrap intense convection all the way around the center. If the eye ever clears out, the convection will probably become more symmetric.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Pressure Drop [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62672 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:33 AM

well now that i am runing my Grlevel3.... the eye is HUGE... based on this track.. will be interesting to see were OFFICIAL landfall point is.. Naples, in my view will get part of the eye...so will Marco... thinking Marco will be closer to the "center" part of the 60 mile wide eye for lanfall point....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Big Tk
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 25
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Key West [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62673 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:33 AM

Thanks for the feedback just conjecture on my part.

What conditions can we expect in the greater Tampa Bay area tomorrow morning?


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Mezovorticies? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #62674 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:33 AM

It may be considered a vortex at this point; it is an arm of the smaller eyewall that did not close off and did not pull back into the outer eyewall. Convection has been firing off there periodically.

So -- I haven't been following the tracking at all, but I gather it's curving more to the north now? Hard for me to see on sat image. No "gator track?"

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Mon Oct 24 2005 01:34 AM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Pressure Drop [Re: WeatherNut]
      #62675 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:34 AM

Quote:

could that not just be a wobble? Of course a wobble at this point could be crucial to landfall




Sure...of course it could be... More important to bring up so that people don't let their guard down.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Change [Re: danielw]
      #62676 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:36 AM

Quote:

I'm Using the Recon Fixes only...Not NHC fixes.

NHC averages the heading over 3-6 hours. Charley taught me to use RECON Fixes.

I am seeing a change...still working on the heading




..Oh, i wasn't aware there was any contention with what type of fixes you were using... i guess we're talking about two different things then...

..i'm just wondering if there's a subtle gain in n component and whether that reflects in 'any' kind of fix is entirely a bird of a different conversational color.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Wave Heights [Re: Margie]
      #62677 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:37 AM

Our local Viper is showing 27' waves at Key West and 22' at Marco Island currently with 48' waves just off the coast between Key West and Marco Island.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Pressure Drop [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62678 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:37 AM

I'm still facinated by all the possible interactions w/ Alpha and the wholde combined mess that could be off New England later in the week...that could end up being a big part of the Wilma Saga

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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soccermark6
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
Naples [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62679 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:38 AM

Im here in Naples dont post but thought I would give an update on whats going on.


Where I am at the wind is probably at about 30mph or higher heavy rain and I have seen some flooding in my area. We still have power of course or i wouldnt be able to post this. It has came on and of a few times but so far so good. its only going to get worse as the night go along!!!! going outside and video taping every 30 min or so to track the proggresive of the winds as rain.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Mezovorticies? [Re: Margie]
      #62680 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:39 AM

also John King in CNN is in Marco Island....

He's going to get the worse part in about 3-6hrs!!!!!
Storm surge pictures will be interesting if they get any!!!!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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