Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Area for development tagged in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf), 20% development in next 5 days (may increase later into next week)
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 226 (Zeta) , Major: 289 (Laura) Florida - Any: 975 (Michael) Major: 975 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | >> (show all)
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62417 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:37 PM

Quote:

radar beams are not that accurate that far out.... where eye is now... would be shooting up 25ft and higher... so low "surface center" could be just little off.... expect a wobble all night.... shear to me is not all that bad... she's not feeling to much of effect from the second cold front.... yet!




honestly, i don't think shear is going to be that big of a factor with Wilma... she's moving along smartyly with the flow, where as, if she were somehow resisting she'd be more susceptible to shear.. . as long as she keeps moving along and accelerating she's actually more likely to behave as though she were in a light upper wind environment..


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62418 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:41 PM

Still not much sign from the satellite of any shear adversely affecting Wilma at the present time. Upper-level winds are increasing to the north of the system, which is enhancing the outflow to the N and E. Sooner or later, Wilma will start to feel more shear from the southwest, but for the next few hours at least it may intensify some more.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62419 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:42 PM

yeah... agree and that's not good... i do think she will make it up to cat 3 now... ((low end!))
like others said.... appearance on sats is improving... but would only expect the "core of strong" winds in a small area near landfall... almost like Dennis this year.... Charley last year... the main strong winds in a very small area.... well see how she does tonight!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62420 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:42 PM

Quote:

There has been a fairly significant improvement in the satellite presentation of Wilma in the last couple of hours. The eye is showing up much better on the most recent image (2315Z) and there is deepening convection around the center. On the long-range Key West radar, the eye looks to be a little irregularly shaped, but that may be an artifact since the west eyewall is just barely in radar range.




absolutely...there is definitely an attenuation issue....BUT, what i'm wondering is why this still looks like it's got so much east component - don't think attenuation actually causes storm motion issues...

anyway...i agree with the intensity profiling you've made... i wrote a post awhile back regarding what i suspect might be a narrow window for rapid or near rapid intensification rates.. furthering those points:
a) storm relative shear is quite low now that she is moving along quickly and this will allow her to avail of a in situ lighter u/a
b) she's making use of having traversed the some pretty dern warm heat content during the day
c) ...finally, the enterance region of u/a wind maxim is beginning to excite her polarward outflow channel, which should give her some core ascending assisting for a short time.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 07:46 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vvvteddybearvvv
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 31
Loc: Seminole country, FL
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62422 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:45 PM

please rember the chat room is open for discussion and makes for instant feedback me and a lot of others will be camping out their all night to get thir you go to http://irc.flhurricane.com/

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 07:52 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62423 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:47 PM

Will someone please plot these cords? Didn't the GFDL 18 run just have a shift north? I know how to plot but I dont have a plot form and it's hard on the computer.
Thanks
Jackie

ROFL, It's wigged me out so bad I forgot the link:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05102323

Edited by emackl (Sun Oct 23 2005 07:48 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62424 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:47 PM

looks like little sis (alpha) tried to make a comeback.... not to often we see two systems....including this late in the season!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg

loop that goes with above:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Oct 23 2005 07:48 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Shear [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62425 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:50 PM

I just checked the Nexrad Wind Profilers in Southern Florida.
Key West-max of 78kts at 19000ft.
Miami- max of 45kts at 20000ft.
Tampa-max of 58kts at 45000ft.

All of the current winds on the profilers appear to be unidirectional.
Dr Greg Forbes at TWC just displayed One front as Stationary from North of Ft Myers to the Melbourne area.
With SE winds on the south side of the front and NE winds on the North side. Combined with Wilma's wind field this is probably the setup for the spin associated with the Tornado Warnings.

00Z Soundings aren't in as of yet.
12Z soundings from Key West indicated a helicity of near 150m/s/s., and Tampa's helicity was near 100m/s/s.
(I hope I got the m/s/s correct~danielw)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62426 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:51 PM

also a mod could post these links on front page:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/wilma.html Wilma imagery

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/alpha.html alpha imagery

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Oct 23 2005 07:52 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62427 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:51 PM

Quote:

Quote:

There has been a fairly significant improvement in the satellite presentation of Wilma in the last couple of hours. The eye is showing up much better on the most recent image (2315Z) and there is deepening convection around the center. On the long-range Key West radar, the eye looks to be a little irregularly shaped, but that may be an artifact since the west eyewall is just barely in radar range.




absolutely...there is definitely an attenuation issue....BUT, what i'm wondering is why this still looks like it's got so much east component - don't think attenuation actually causes storm motion issues...

anyway...i agree with the intensity profiling you've made... i wrote a post awhile back regarding what i suspect might be a narrow window for rapid or near rapid intensification rates.. furthering those points:
a) storm relative shear is quite low now that she is moving along quickly and this will allow her to avail of a in situ lighter u/a
b) she's making use of having traversed the some pretty dern warm heat content during the day
c) ...finally, the enterance region of u/a wind maxim is beginning to excite her polarward outflow channel, which should give her some core ascending assisting for a short time.




I generally agree with your analysis, though Wilma still has some issues to deal with before that happens. Can the eye clear out (still some stubborn old eyewall fragments around the center) and can the eye contract enough to allow for a more rapid deepening? I guess we are about to find out.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62428 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:51 PM

Quote:

looks like little sis (alpha) tried to make a comeback.... not to often we see two systems....including this late in the season!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg

loop that goes with above:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html




...honestly...not intending to toot one's owh horn here but i discussed that in hammered intensity in a lengthy post near the beginning of this thread....
...and, yes, i agree, not only trying to come back but it is uncertain how much that come-back really will be, and therefore, an issue for me that it isn't getting more consideration further n and even w, as the synoptics seem to connote it "should" be gobbled up in the more massive circulation of Wilma and her transition into some kind of exotic ne u.s. coastal event..


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Hurricane Local Statements-Updated [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62429 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:55 PM

Here is a link to the Updated Hurricane Local Statements.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml

Please check them frequently for updates specific to your area.
They are not to replace any other information. Just to localize some of the information.~danielw


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62430 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:57 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

There has been a fairly significant improvement in the satellite presentation of Wilma in the last couple of hours. The eye is showing up much better on the most recent image (2315Z) and there is deepening convection around the center. On the long-range Key West radar, the eye looks to be a little irregularly shaped, but that may be an artifact since the west eyewall is just barely in radar range.




absolutely...there is definitely an attenuation issue....BUT, what i'm wondering is why this still looks like it's got so much east component - don't think attenuation actually causes storm motion issues...

anyway...i agree with the intensity profiling you've made... i wrote a post awhile back regarding what i suspect might be a narrow window for rapid or near rapid intensification rates.. furthering those points:
a) storm relative shear is quite low now that she is moving along quickly and this will allow her to avail of a in situ lighter u/a
b) she's making use of having traversed the some pretty dern warm heat content during the day
c) ...finally, the enterance region of u/a wind maxim is beginning to excite her polarward outflow channel, which should give her some core ascending assisting for a short time.




I generally agree with your analysis, though Wilma still has some issues to deal with before that happens. Can the eye clear out (still some stubborn old eyewall fragments around the center) and can the eye contract enough to allow for a more rapid deepening? I guess we are about to find out.




...i know...and the trouble is that the 'contracting eyewall' scenario is like the latter half of an ERC - lose analogy because it is unclear much of this strange core appearance was for that cause to begin with... trouble with that is, there is really poor predictive skill for timing contractions and so forth... what she really needs is a burst of deep convection amid the inner aspect, to lower that pressure and drive the wind field tighter in... the 8pm advisory is coming out now so we should get a fix on pp... if we see a 5mb drop we can bet that contraction is either underway or about to begin.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Hurricane Local Statements-Updated [Re: danielw]
      #62431 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:57 PM

New advisory in, pressure down to 958, winds up to 110. Still heading NE, now at 15.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62432 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:57 PM

URNT12 KNHC 232353
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/23:33:20Z
B. 23 deg 59 min N
084 deg 27 min W
C. 700 mb 2744 m
D. 50 kt
E. 312 deg 101 nm
F. 073 deg 071 kt
G. 309 deg 046 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 9 C/ 3033 m
J. 15 C/ 3049 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A Wilma OB 06
MAX FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 23:19:50 Z
GOOD SPIRAL BANDING


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62433 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:57 PM

just to confirm our posts:

HURRICANE Wilma INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
... WILMA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
GRADUALLY ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IMPACTING WESTERN CUBA AND
APPROACHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

here we go at 9:00pm

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.
HOURLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATES WILL BE ISSUED BEGINNING
AT 9 PM EDT . THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LizL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: St Cloud, Fl
Re: Hurricane Local Statements-Updated [Re: danielw]
      #62434 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:57 PM

BREAKING NOTE:

Due to the potential of tropical storm force winds associated with Hurricane Wilma, all four Walt Disney World Theme Parks, Typhoon Lagoon, Downtown Disney and Disney’s Wide World of Sports will not open tomorrow morning, Monday, October 24. Weather permitting, Walt Disney World may reopen one or more theme parks after the storm passes on Monday to entertain the tens of thousands of Guests currently staying in our resort hotels.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Updated [Re: danielw]
      #62435 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:58 PM

The Weather Channel is reporting that Wilma's wind speed is now up to 110mph.
Her pressure has dropped a little too!

I can't find a link for this yet, but will post it a.s.a.p~danielw

DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110
MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. Wilma IS A STRONG CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY... AND Wilma
COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE... STRENGTH AS IT
NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST MONDAY MORNING.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/232354.shtml

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:05 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62436 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:59 PM

Pressure steady at 959 mb in the last vortex, though the dropsonde that recorded that pressure measured 15 knots at the surface, so based on that and the drop in 700mb height, the actual pressure is probably 957-958 mb. Still a slow drop, but nothing rapid yet. That is probably still a couple of hours away if it is going to happen.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Shear [Re: danielw]
      #62437 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:00 PM

Quote:

I just checked the Nexrad Wind Profilers in Southern Florida.
Key West-max of 78kts at 19000ft.
Miami- max of 45kts at 20000ft.
Tampa-max of 58kts at 45000ft.

All of the current winds on the profilers appear to be unidirectional.
Dr Greg Forbes at TWC just displayed One front as Stationary from North of Ft Myers to the Melbourne area.
With SE winds on the south side of the front and NE winds on the North side. Combined with Wilma's wind field this is probably the setup for the spin associated with the Tornado Warnings.

00Z Soundings aren't in as of yet.
12Z soundings from Key West indicated a helicity of near 150m/s/s., and Tampa's helicity was near 100m/s/s.
(I hope I got the m/s/s correct~danielw)




Hi DanielW... I wrote this in a post earlier in this thread and I believe the reasoning is still quite valid:
It's the extraordinary SRH - Storm Relative Halicity - that is in the area associated with that boundary... Winds across the horizontal depth of the surface trough are backing S to N, from the SSE to the ENE... Compounding, you still have to deal with the conservation of angular momentum by land falling hurricanes, and the local spin ups... Basically what you got there are over-lapping mechanics for twisters... Could be an interesting night; could almost envision tornado swarms...[\i]


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 54 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 266109

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center