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Area for development tagged in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf), 20% development in next 5 days (may increase later into next week)
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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62438 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:01 PM

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ESTIMATED TO BE
958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:03 PM)


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Updated [Re: danielw]
      #62439 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:01 PM

recon reporting 104 kt winds.

959 mb pressure.



edit: sorry daniel... you beat me by a second buddy. Great minds think alike.


Edited by Big Red Machine (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:03 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Updated [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #62440 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:04 PM

with houly updates starting next hour... wouldn't be susprised if it happens in 9:00hr... she close to a cat three now... clouds tops on east side are pretty cold.... see how she does with recon out there now....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Big Tk
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 25
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Shear [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62441 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:06 PM

If this storm really decides to get it's act together. will there be a change in direction?

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62442 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:07 PM

Quote:

just to confirm our posts:

HURRICANE Wilma INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
... WILMA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
GRADUALLY ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IMPACTING WESTERN CUBA AND
APPROACHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

here we go at 9:00pm

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.
HOURLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATES WILL BE ISSUED BEGINNING
AT 9 PM EDT . THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART




right, not surprising...and now we see the -80 sinister black toned cloud tops of utter terror returning to an attempt at a CDO...

it's likely to me that this will in the process of deepening fairly quickly for the next several hours, just as we said - which is somewhat unusual climatologically for hurricanes moving NE in this area of the Gulf, quite frankly, but that's a whole angle i don't want to get into now..

nonetheless, i feel fairly confident that this will be the case because of Wilma's unique orientation with respect to her own motion - within the flow and thus relatively less shear; and, availing of a very intense polarward outflow channel associated with the enterance region of jet fields NW of the stationary/quasi-stationary boundary.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62443 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:09 PM

I just read that Recon has now found flight level winds of 110. Which should equate to a cat 3 if I am not mistaken, right?



Note: This is unconfirmed as of this time.


EDIT: It is confirmed.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



Edited by CaneTrackerInSoFl (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:15 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Updated [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #62444 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:12 PM

What I saw happening and posted about this morning & last night has just started. Timing worked out to be very good for increase in intensity, with the exception the eyewall is still quite large. The 2245Z wv sat image shows she finally got the core tog. Since T12 has started quoting himself maybe I'll try to dig up my post from last night and do the same.

Now expect some strengthening, for some hours will be rapid strengthening, until about 1-2am.

One of the things that has helped her a lot the past 4-5 hours is the feeder band she developed from the Caribbean, where the air is much less dry than the GOM.

Here it is, from noonish...part of my earlier post:

"Looks like some quick intensification starting tonight, if she continues to slowly organize. Again timing of how far along she is in the reorg process when she hits the loop current will determine this to a large extent, even with the other things that factor into intensity."


--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:30 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Shear [Re: Big Tk]
      #62445 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:12 PM

Quote:

If this storm really decides to get it's act together. will there be a change in direction?




Not likely... Wilma is caught up in the deep layer winds associated with veering and a large negative anomaly in the Ohio Valley (deep trough).... In fact, the only change will make is determined on the orientation of the isoheights she's locked in; they may actually orient more S to N post Florida visit, which would mean a smooth curve N up the coast... But, that will be subtle and registered over longer time lengths... You won't have to worry "as much" about short duration abrupty changes and large wobbles in her track. for lack of better words - locked into governing synoptics of said trough and how it is mass-balanced against ridges.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62447 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:14 PM

The last recon did not report an eye at all, but instead noted good spiral banding. Perhaps they are also seeing the oddly shaped eye that is apparent from the long-range Key West radar, which seems to be comprised of more than one arc of convection.

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62448 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:16 PM

Quote:

I just read that Recon has now found flight level winds of 110. Which should equate to a cat 3 if I am not mistaken, right?



Note: This is unconfirmed as of this time.




Depends...if that is a flight level none-extrapolated wind field, then you have to take note of the altitude and then fix it to the surface using standard conversion ratios for that altitude...example, 950mb I believe is 90%...So, 110kts =~ 99kts at the surface... I rarely do this conversion so check these number on the web or through other astute users. If that is already the surface estimate though, that's it: it's 110kts... and if that is the case, you'd have somewhere's around the mid 120's mph in common terms. But, I think that was a flight level estimate you've got there??


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Big Tk
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 25
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Shear [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62449 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:17 PM

Is there any possibility of this storm hitting north of Fort myers. Because i believe that would put tampa in Hurricane force winds.

Edited by Big Tk (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:18 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Shear [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62450 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:18 PM

not sure about this warning text.... understand the warning but....

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
812 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
.. TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP
.. UNTIL 900 PM EDT
.. AT 810 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.
.. THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP BY 830 PM EDT
TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN WRAPPED IN
HEAVY RAIN AND ARE HARD TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY ARE VERY CLOSE. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT OFFGUARD!
TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

BEST ADVICE.... don't wait to hear or "see" it.... if its in your area take cover in a interior room or closet away from windows... DON'T look/WATCH for "POPPING OF ELECTRIC LINES"...especially at night.... MOST likely you will not see it!!!!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Extrapolated Track [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62451 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:18 PM

Using the last Two Recon Fixes.
I plotted the heading up to the Florida Coast.

On the Current heading. The Center would come ashore just East of Marco Island.
This is 196.31nm from the 2333Z Recon Center Fix.

Do Not Fix the storm on this point. This is just an extrapolated track. Based on her heading over a 3 hour time frame.~danielw

Remember...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER
...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Updated [Re: Margie]
      #62452 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:20 PM

What effects, if any, would a stronger intensity have on Wilmaís track, specifically in regards with her interaction with the surrounding synoptic environment? Obviously, I am having trouble wrapping my mind around this whole setup --which is fascinating to say the least.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:21 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62453 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:20 PM

The most recent supplementary vortex message found a max flight-level wind of 110 kts in the SE quadrant. It was roughly 40 miles from the center with slowly increasing winds between the center and where the max winds were found, so the wind center is still pretty broad, as you would expect from the satellite.

OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01238 10842 13750 11413 22044
02236 20841 23792 21212 23075
03235 30839 33868 30909 23103
04233 40837 43929 40909 22094
05231 50835 53965 50808 22086
MF235 M0840 MF110



Edited by Thunderbird12 (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:22 PM)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62454 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:21 PM

Yeah, thats why I said flight level winds of 110.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Shear [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62456 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:25 PM

Quote:

not sure about this warning text.... understand the warning but....

............................
TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN WRAPPED IN
HEAVY RAIN AND ARE HARD TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY ARE VERY CLOSE. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT OFFGUARD!
TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

BEST ADVICE.... don't wait to hear or "see" it.... if its in your area take cover in a interior room or closet away from windows... DON'T look/WATCH for "POPPING OF ELECTRIC LINES"...especially at night.... MOST likely you will not see it!!!!




Actually, having grown up in the Midwest before moving to eastern Massachusetts I can vouch for this.. This is standard for nighttime alert statements and actually makes a good deal of sense. In 1980, an F3 twister tore through downtown Kalamazoo, Mi, and I stood there frozen in awe watching from about a mile away before large hail brought me to run home... You know how when you have a bad dream and you can't run fast... It was that incarnate... Anyway, in the distance you could hear a) a low pitched hum/rumble and b) the sound of various debris popping and snapping... If it's not daylight and you cannot see these things taking place, you have to trust your ears that if that sound is unusual and kind of like...scary sounding? It is, and TAKE COVER.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Radius of Winds [Re: Lysis]
      #62457 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:26 PM

Using the hypothetical Landfall Location, just east of Marcos Island.
Would give Hurricane Force winds south of a Bradenton to Melbourne.
And Tropical Storm winds from the Suwannee River to near Jacksonville.


Again...this is a hypothetical area. Based on Wilma's movement over the 3 hour period from 2030Z to 2330Z.~danielw

See Skeetobite's Map pages for graphic versions.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62458 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:26 PM

Quote:

Yeah, thats why I said flight level winds of 110.




cool - what is the flight level ...i.e, 950mb, 700mb ...etc?


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62460 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:28 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Yeah, thats why I said flight level winds of 110.




cool - what is the flight level ...i.e, 950mb, 700mb ...etc?



I believe 950.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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