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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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JG
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: swimaway19]
      #62510 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:25 PM

Quote:

Another question: Do you think that the windfield will expand more than projected before landfall?




Max Mayfield answered that question on FNC about two hours ago. The answer is YES.


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Joshua
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: swimaway19]
      #62511 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:25 PM

Quote:

Another question: Do you think that the windfield will expand more than projected before landfall?




If it intensifies, the CDO/COC may even contract. This is hard to forecast though, so stay tuned to local media and local officials (NHC/TPC)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: JG]
      #62512 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:26 PM

Quote:

Quote:



Absolutely...And, I think when this completes we may have bigger problems then cat 2!




So there it is. I can't wait to see the vortex messages close to 2300. I think we could be looking at another Charley situation with an intensifying storm hitting between Bonita Springs and Fort Myers. The second cold front and the "dry air" and the "shear" does not seem to be intimidating Wilma one iota.




Exactly.... I've been trying to hammer this point, that she will be less adversely touched by these detriments because she is caught up in an in situ environment that is moving along with her - that is by definition storm relative shear, which in this case is exceptionally low in value... In otherwords, I see quite the alternative, pure, almost unmitigated strengthening potential right up to landfall - which is very, very ungood


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Joshua
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62513 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:28 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:



Absolutely...And, I think when this completes we may have bigger problems then cat 2!




So there it is. I can't wait to see the vortex messages close to 2300. I think we could be looking at another Charley situation with an intensifying storm hitting between Bonita Springs and Fort Myers. The second cold front and the "dry air" and the "shear" does not seem to be intimidating Wilma one iota.




Exactly.... I've been trying to hammer this point, that she will be less adversely touched by these detriments because she is caught up in an in situ environment that is moving along with her - that is by definition storm relative shear, which in this case is exceptionally low in value... In otherwords, I see quite the alternative, pure, almost unmitigated strengthening potential right up to landfall - which is very, very ungood




This is exactly why I tried to post and tell people to prepare for +1 category from the NHC track. In fact, I did that this morning. So, there really is no excuse why people should not be prepared for a major hurricane (except, of course, for being stubborn and relying too much on a past hurricane's performance)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: Joshua]
      #62514 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:28 PM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
924 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
FLC009-240145-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-051024T0145Z/
BREVARD FL-
924 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...TORNADIC STORM MOVING TOWARD VIERA WEST...INTERSTATE 95...AND
ROCKLEDGE...
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
BREVARD COUNTY...
AT 919 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR COCOA...OR ABOUT NEAR ROCKLEDGE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE CROSS INTERSTATE 95 JUST NORTHWEST OF
ROCKLEDGE...
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CANAVERAL ACRES...CANAVERAL GROVES...SHARPES...BELLWOOD AND PORT
SAINT JOHN.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: JG]
      #62515 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:29 PM

Everything is relative -- The intensification we have seen today is nothing like that of last Wed with the pressure dropping 100mb in 12 hrs

So far today the wind field has increased but no signif pressure change so far and forward speed is accelerating which will effectively increase wind speed on S of storm


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
new watch [Re: Joshua]
      #62516 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:30 PM

A new tornado watch is forthcoming that will include roughly the southern two-thirds of the Florida peninsula, including both coasts. This is the initial notification, with details coming soon:

WWUS30 KWNS 240119
SAW7
SPC AWW 240119
WW 837 TORNADO FL CW 240125Z - 241500Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
45WNW ORL/ORLANDO FL/ - 80S MIA/MIAMI FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM EITHER SIDE /39WNW ORL - 70S MIA/
WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500.MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 18045.

REPLACES WW 836..FL CW


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JG
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62517 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:30 PM

Quote:


Exactly.... I've been trying to hammer this point, that she will be less adversely touched by these detriments because she is caught up in an in situ environment that is moving along with her - that is by definition storm relative shear, which in this case is exceptionally low in value... In otherwords, I see quite the alternative, pure, almost unmitigated strengthening potential right up to landfall - which is very, very ungood




A local friend who is much more knowledgable on this subject told me that the shear, if it's in the same direction the storm is moving will not affect nor deteriorate the storm alot unless it is at a super high velocity (above 30 kts I think is what he said). Is that true? Regardless, I think Wilma is going to be like Charley. Thank you for your posts and heads up on the behaviour of this storm.


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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: JG]
      #62518 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:32 PM

when you say like Charley do you mean it might make a more southerly track?

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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: JG]
      #62519 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:33 PM

It appears that Wilma is a solid Cat 3 now....Recon has just recorded flight level winds of 114knots

--Lou


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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62520 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:33 PM

This cell is tracking rapidly to the N and has so far stayed inland off the beach

Appears so far to be isolated and not part of an extended band

After this passes at least for a few hours E central FL radar appears to be clear


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JG
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: weatherwatcher2]
      #62521 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:33 PM

Quote:

when you say like Charley do you mean it might make a more southerly track?




No. More like defy the experts and do what it wants and intensify right before landfall.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: new watch [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62522 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:33 PM

Click the link for a graphical depiction of the watch:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0837.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM UNTIL
1100 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF ORLANDO
FLORIDA TO 80 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 836. WATCH NUMBER 836 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 925
PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...HURRICANE Wilma WILL BE CROSSING SRN FL LATER TONIGHT
AND MON AM. STRONG SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SRN FL AND WILL
ONLY INCREASE AS Wilma APPROACHES. WITH 0OZ SRN FL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A MDTLY UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIR MASS...THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS SHEAR
BECOMES VERY STRONG.

THE FORECAST MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS AND MEAN CELL MOTION APPLY TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE EYEWALL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME
TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI
WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 18045.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: JG]
      #62523 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:36 PM

Quote:

Quote:


Exactly.... I've been trying to hammer this point, that she will be less adversely touched by these detriments because she is caught up in an in situ environment that is moving along with her - that is by definition storm relative shear, which in this case is exceptionally low in value... In otherwords, I see quite the alternative, pure, almost unmitigated strengthening potential right up to landfall - which is very, very ungood




A local friend who is much more knowledgable on this subject told me that the shear, if it's in the same direction the storm is moving will not affect nor deteriorate the storm alot unless it is at a super high velocity (above 30 kts I think is what he said). Is that true? Regardless, I think Wilma is going to be like Charley. Thank you for your posts and heads up on the behaviour of this storm.




Exactly - you're friend gets a gold star
Seriously, SRS - Storm Relative Shear is exactly what it sounds like... relativity... To the hurricane, the wind that is shear impactive may have the physical presents of say 5mph, which is generally not enough to inhibit strengthening. If Wilma was translating along at say...10mph, that physical presents becomes 10mph. If she were standing still, she'd be encounter all of the environmental wind field's capacity to impinge on her vertical structure, or 20mph... (I'm not saying the envir. field is 20mph - just a facsimile)... Anyway, her storm relative shear is quite low when she's already 15 or 16mph, because all the wind barbs I've seen since 00Z have been about 18kts... after conversion, she's in for what...6mph of shear... Nah, not gonna touch her.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 09:38 PM)


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Sneakbridge
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Highlands County, Florida
Re: new watch [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62524 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:37 PM

The eye looks huge now. How many miles wide is it?

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swimaway19
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
Re: new watch [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62525 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:37 PM

I have been continuously watching this aforementioned link; http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml and though I am not an expert, it looks like the SW portion of the eye wall is trying to contract even more

--------------------
Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....



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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: new watch [Re: swimaway19]
      #62526 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:38 PM

URNT12 KNHC 240135
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/01:12:40Z
B. 24 deg 15 min N
084 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 2732 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 142 deg 114 kt
G. 039 deg 027 nm
H. 958 mb
I. 8 C/ 3053 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO45-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A Wilma OB 13
MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 01:04:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C, 225 / 24NM
OUTER EYE IS RAGGED
INNER EYE IS OPEN E-SW


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: JG]
      #62527 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:39 PM

This might be a better satellite to see the more Northerly component evolving

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html

I hope your wrong Tip as I live in TB and that more Northerly component wouuld bring the hurricane force wind path into and North of my area. I do have to agree with you though, as it is a meteorologically sound call. But I hope you're wrong

--------------------
Matt


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: recmod]
      #62528 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:39 PM

Quote:

It appears that Wilma is a solid Cat 3 now....Recon has just recorded flight level winds of 114knots

--Lou



Hey Lou, go back and read my post from 8:07pm.

You can see the spot where they found the 16C in the eye, on the wv image.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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JG
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62529 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:40 PM

typhoon_tip you've been a huge help. Makes me wish that I was good at math so I could have been a met.

Well, let's hope the tornadoes let me get some sleep tonight. My weather radio is wearing me out. Recon seems to indicate the 2300 update will call for a Cat 3. I wonder, based on your discussion with me in these recent posts, if she has enough time to get up to the 130-135 mph range before landfall.

Some folks seem to think that an 84 degree SST is not enough to support those windspeeds. What do you think?


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