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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Cindi
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Loc: Panama City, FL
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63091 - Tue Oct 25 2005 03:14 PM

I don't know about the water temps here off the coast, but in Panama City, FL today, the high is 64. Which feels like heaven to me... I am soooo ready for this hurricane season to be over. Only 36 more days to go.

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: latest TWO [Re: Ed in Va]
      #63092 - Tue Oct 25 2005 03:26 PM

Quote:

Curious about the discussion on SSTs. My impression, at least for the Atlantic, is that the temps don't move very quickly, but several posters have said that the temps in the Gulf will be cooled off enough from this front to make any US action likely. Does the Gulf cool off that quickly?




Those "...any US likely" claims are very risky - by the way - and cannot be made with much scientific certainty. Let me just make a supposition:
...We took note of how fast Wilma accelerated once she was caught up in the steering field of a large scale trough... It is NOT a huge leap of imagination that a TC could get firing in the still heat potentail laden Caribbean and then get accelerated N at such translational speed as to be insufficient timing wise for cooler waters to have an impact.

Another clue to the riskiness of making such an assertion: Nova Scotia. For 150-200naut miles S of the Nova Scotia SST's in the warmest ocean period of the year rarely eclipse the mid 50s. That's some 20 degrees colder than the coldest water in the area of the eastern Gulf at this time in lieu of Wilma. Nova Scotia was struck by a category 2 hurricane as recent as 2004.

The key here is the translational speed... There is a noted lag time for TC's and their proximities to warm waters and their ability to make use of that fuel source. This not a fix time-value, because other parameters have an influence; such, upper air mechanics... But, in general, there is a time dependency... If a hurricane developes over a warm environment, particularly if it gets strong and then is yanked at ludicrous speed like Wilma was into a colder environment, the hurricane can get hundreds of miles before losing tropical characteristics/momentum in some extreme cases.

Believe me, if Nova Scotia can get a cat 2 up there, and New England can get a category 3 (several times including 1938), 75F SST's in the Gulf will be of minor detriment.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: latest TWO [Re: Cindi]
      #63093 - Tue Oct 25 2005 03:30 PM

Quote:

I don't know about the water temps here off the coast, but in Panama City, FL today, the high is 64. Which feels like heaven to me... I am soooo ready for this hurricane season to be over. Only 36 more days to go.




Yah, I gotta tell yeah...I wouldn't hold your breath because you may be holding it too long to sustain life the way this year's season is going... That's not just a perfunctory comment either... There are signs already that something is lurking in the western Caribbean and the water temperatures (save the local affects of Wilma on the easter Gulf, which may be transient to begin with...) are still anomalously warm everywhere... If you got a troposphere that favors the genesis of these things, you don't want warmer than normal SST's to extend your threat envelope - now do yah.. Anyway, it's likely a Beta or more will take place and btw, I've noted a 2 week periodicity all season ( average - so don't chop my head off!) so even if nothing happens right away here...the longer term frequency of the year "might" suggest at least one more active pattern - seasonal flux and allowing that to happen, notwithstanding...


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63094 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:14 PM

WRN CARIBBEAN...
ALL THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING ALL THE NCEP ENSMEMBERS...FORM A TROP
CYC IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ARND 24 HRS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH SPAWNED T.S. ALPHA AND A FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE INCREASINGLY-NONTROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS
WILMA. MOVEMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO THE NORTH AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE REMAINS TO ITS NE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK...AND A SFC HIGH
TO ITS NORTH LIMITS MOTION IN THAT DIRECTION. IT IS ACKNOWLEDGED
THAT THE MDLS TEND TO DVLP THESE SYS ROUGHLY A DAY TOO FAST PER
COORDINATION W/TPC...BUT EITHER WAY IT IS LOOKING LIKE A CYCLONE
WILL BE LURKING OFFSHORE CNTRL AMERICA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM TPC/NHC AND
LATER DISCUSSIONS FROM HPC CONCERNING THIS FEATURE.

ROTH/CLARK


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: latest TWO [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63095 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:16 PM

RC -- read that article and it really burns me up. There are many good reasons to overhaul the current cat system, but creating a cat 6 rating is not one of them!

It is a warning system.

Given the lack of response even to mandatory evacs, and the possible politics involved in issuing one (i.e. NOLA, not issuing one until the last minute, to avoid legal repercussions from not being able to evac those who could not get out on their own, waiting to the point where all they had time left for, was to substitute local shelters instead), the main impetus in revising the cat system should be to create warnings that would motivate people to leave, without being so complex it would confuse them. If the reason would be to provide categorization for mets, that should be separate from trying to devise a good warning system.

Right now I think the next big step that everybody is ready for is to separate wind and surge warnings, and it may also help to focus more on the damage descriptions of each cat level rather than just talk about a number.

Look at Key West. If they'd gotten five more feet of surge, a lot of people would have drowned right in the middle of their party. It might help a lot next time if the mayor stands on Duvall St. and holds up his arm and says, "At 10pm water will be up to here, and by the way the wind will be over 100mph at that time." There must be something that would motivate people. Someone ought to go out and talk to the survivors and ask them what that would be. I think they would get a lot of responses like, "Well I didn't know it was going to be this bad." Then if you sat down with every one of those people and backtracked over the warnings that had been put out, they would find out that the warnings did in fact say that it could be that bad. So what is the language that you use to get across to everyone?

Of course language probably isn't the problem most of the time; there are a lot of people who would have many rationalizations which all add up to not wanting to deal with evacuating (assuming they have the money to evacuate). But I think language might help a lot, in certain cases, because many of the people who died on the MS Gulf Coast in their own homes were older people, who simply may not have understood (you can count my own mother in this category).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: latest TWO [Re: Margie]
      #63096 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:25 PM

Quote:

.....There must be something that would motivate people. Someone ought to go out and talk to the survivors and ask them what that would be.....




Unfortunately, Margie, you just can't penetrate some poeple's minds with that kind of straight forward, black and white logic. They shall remain, irretrievably susceptible to hazard and risk.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Tue Oct 25 2005 04:27 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63097 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:41 PM

THAT ALL SHE WROTE...... the strongest hurricane ever is gone!

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...41.7 N... 62.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 976 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON Wilma FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FUTURE WARNINGS AND INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER
IN WASHINGTON D. C. UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC AND AWIPS HEADER
HSFAT1.
FORECASTER BEVEN

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63098 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:45 PM

Also...perhaps a little off-topic, but has anybody noticed the state of FL might be looking for a new met?

I'm referring to the first FL press conference from a couple of days ago. The state met still has that 12-going-on-20 hey-I-can-do-the-job-Dad look. Did anyone notice how Bush rolled his eyes, on camera, when the guy started his speech and nervously said "Katrina" instead of "Wilma?" Perhaps this fellow is some nephew they had to hire. Anyway I noticed he was absent from following press conferences, where Bush read all the warning material himself.

Also...since you can count the minutes I've watched G. Bush on TV in the past 10 years on the fingers of one hand, this was the first time I'd even seen Gov. Bush. He seemed like more of a workhorse type rather than a dilettante. I was impressed with the way he read the briefing first in English, then in Spanish, and also had a signer as well, and was precise, prepared, thorough, and sensible. Not only that, it is apparent that FL really does have their act tog as far as hurricane prep, more than any other state. Yikes, he seemed almost...cool.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Convergence
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
Re: latest TWO [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63099 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:50 PM

Does anyone else get irritated when the media (and therefore everyone who doesn't know better) immediately cries GLOBAL WARMING after any kind of anomalous climate event occurs? It's far too early to know whether global warming is actually have an effect on hurricanes, especially when we have a known cycle that explains the recent activity? I'm in no way downplaying global warming- I just want to avoid wanton conclusions.

Three Cat 5s in a season? GLOBAL WARMING! 13 inches of rain in Rhode Island? GLOBAL WARMING! Can't find your car keys? GLOBAL WARMING!


Err... anyway... I contacted my aunt in Miami yesterday and she said it was pretty bad. She would have taken some significant damage if she hadn't put up her shutters. The worst thing is she lost her giant avocado tree


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 458
Loc: Georgia Tech
Rating storms [Re: Margie]
      #63100 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:51 PM

What I'd do to rate the systems is have a catagory system set up, from 0 through 5, each for wind speed, storm surge, and rain fall, (you can include tornado threat as well, but that would be a bit harder to judge)

Each catagory would have it's own rating system:
wind:
0 - Under 74MPH (Tropical Storm)
1 - 5 standard Catagories, I suppose you could
include Extreme for anything above 175MPH

Storm Surge:
0 - Minimal storm surge under 3 feet
1 - Minor storm surge 3 - 5 feet
2 - Moderate 6 - 9 feet
3 - Significant 10 - 15 feet
4 - Strong 16 - 20 feet
5 - Major 21 - 30 feet
Extreme - 30+ feet

Rainfall:
0 - under 1" expected
1 - 1 - 2"
2 - 2 - 4"
3 - 5 - 8"
4 - 9 - 12"
5 - 12 - 18"
Extreme - Over 18"

you can then modify slightly for coastal effects and other variables to come to an expected storm effect. Perhaps making a general numbering system for the public.

a slow moving tropical storm can have devastating consequences with rainfall...

a former cat 5 storm can have incredible storm surge even after it weakens wind wise.

a winding up storm can bring incredible wind destruction even on the otherside of the coast, and not have that storm surge effect.

give the public information, just don't overwhelm them with it.

I'll post more when I get to a computer that doesn't make me feel like i'm on a 300 baud modem LOL

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020!

TD/TS/H/M
29/28/12/05
18/17/7/04


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: latest TWO [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63101 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:54 PM

I read a blog on Wunderground and the guy said that even though hurricane season is not yet over, he thinks it is for the U.S. He said he would expect a trop storm from that area in the SW Caribbean, but he doesn't think it will effect the US mainland. He said the cooler temps should cool the waters and added shear should defy development. How true is this? Can this new disturbance in the Caribbean threaten Fla or anywhere else in the US?

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: latest TWO [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #63102 - Tue Oct 25 2005 04:58 PM

Quote:

THAT ALL SHE WROTE...... the strongest hurricane ever is gone!


Yeah and I bet that no one is more relieved to see her go than NHC TPC. Does it seem to you that Wilma just wore us all out, or is it the cumulative effect of the season?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Rating storms [Re: Bloodstar]
      #63103 - Tue Oct 25 2005 05:01 PM

You're so right, how could I have forgotten the terrible consequences of Cat 1 Stan. A hurricane doesn't even have to make landfall to result in severe rain; Stan's effects were felt for days before.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: latest TWO [Re: Margie]
      #63105 - Tue Oct 25 2005 05:23 PM

"12-going-on-20 hey-I-can-do-the-job-Dad look." ....That's funny!
Yeah....a lot of nepatism in the govermental ranks these days....(not to mention money - something we could all be terrified about...) But, I've been told not to go over political lines on this ...I didn't see the broadcast anyway so I'll take your word for it..

Since Katrina, Rita, Wilma and whoever I'm forgetting all have something to do with this though, I will say that "the government", in general, took a lot of heat from people among their own municipalties (like, NWS and NHC and the myriad of local study groups that have been warning of doom for 40 years!) , as well as from the private sector from folks like us, because of this unheeded warning theory. Frankly, I think the hush-hush no-tell truth is that much of that falls on the locals, but that just flies in the face of those who need to scape-goat to outsource the ignomony of their own negligences. For this calamity and other such horrors are in reality because a) it is a hypocrasy to blame the goverment when we live in a cultur that tends to want limited government in private affairs; and b) the truth is, there is no state of preparedness for some storms because their just uniquely qualified to denude manmade artifices from existence.

It's all messy in the blame game and probably....not really worth it.

The bottom line is....we've got huge population districts parked up against a 90F proving ground for tropical tempests, all around the deep south... In fact, the Del Marva isn't even off the hook for that matter, nor is Bar Harbor in Maine! But, this great nation has allowed these areas to thrive too long without adequate protection and now we pay the price - and I think we need to do so in unity among all ranks because it is as much an issue on top as it is in the private sector.

But...I know you didn't ask for my opinion in the matter... I just wanted to say so because we are in such a climate studied favored era for huge storm frequencies, one that looks like it will recur for a number of years to come, so...we'd better get our priorities straight as a culture and stop bickering - ay?

Anyway, watching the Caribbean!


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: latest TWO [Re: damejune2]
      #63106 - Tue Oct 25 2005 05:28 PM

Quote:

I read a blog on Wunderground and the guy said that even though hurricane season is not yet over, he thinks it is for the U.S. He said he would expect a trop storm from that area in the SW Caribbean, but he doesn't think it will effect the US mainland. He said the cooler temps should cool the waters and added shear should defy development. How true is this? Can this new disturbance in the Caribbean threaten Fla or anywhere else in the US?




Waters are cooling, but are still sufficiently warm to support a fairly strong tropical system, especially one coming up from the Caribbean. Based on current model forecasts and also climatology, upper-level winds will not be favorable for anything that tries to affect the U.S. in the near future, but we'll have to see how the upper-level pattern evolves with respect to the next possible system.


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KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
Re: Hurricane Wilma Damage in South Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #63107 - Tue Oct 25 2005 05:30 PM

Good evening from Naples! Our power was restored last night, probably because we are on the same line as the high schol that was the special needs shelter for Collier County. Cable modem came back today. Most of Collier County is still without power, but FPL is working on it. Traffic is difficult - many of the traffic lights are just plain gone. Most drivers are following the rules, a first for Naples. We had trees down and some damage to the lanai cage, so we were very fortunate. A couple of my co-workers lost their roofs. The back side of the storm was wicked. I didn't think the wind would ever stop, but it did.

Thanks for all of your info early Monday morning. I stayed with it until we lost power.

Karen


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KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
Re: latest TWO [Re: Margie]
      #63109 - Tue Oct 25 2005 05:46 PM

Re: Margie's observations on Jeb's press conference. You are correct - Florida has their act together, both at the state and local level. Then again, they should because they have had a lot of practice.

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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: latest TWO [Re: KC]
      #63110 - Tue Oct 25 2005 06:12 PM

Margie - yes, Florida does have their act together. And I realized that even before Katrina. With Charley. There was a ton of communication with in the local and state agencies. I happen to think that Jeb is the Best Gov. we could have had during these past few years. I think he knows how to handle it and gets the job done. And I know it doesn't take just one person to get the job done, but his team - PERFECT.

If he were to ever run for Pres, I would totally vote for him (so as long as I agreed with other areas of his platform) but, he knows how to handle these types of situations.



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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 458
Loc: Georgia Tech
Picking up pieces [Re: Katie]
      #63111 - Tue Oct 25 2005 06:43 PM

Just for a random heads up, a friend of mine just checked in briefly from coral springs. It seems the area looks pretty bad over there. her description of her neighborhoods was 'it looks like a bomb went off.' I don't know if she was in the hardest hit area, but the word they heard was 4 weeks to get back power. She also said the cooler weather was a wonderful blessing, because it's keeping them from roasting at least. She's also not sure how long it will take for businesses to reopen simply because so many of them have taken storm damage and are under curfew as well. She was only able to check in briefly, as she was on a cell phone and trying to conserve the phone for emergencies.

<minor rant>
I really wish the news media would stop with the 'ooh, look the first reports in are of minor damage', and realize that the hardest hit areas will take days to check in. You would have thought they would have learned a hard lesson from Katrina, but I suppose not.
</minor rant>

Anyway, the good news is she's safe and in one piece, but it's still a very rough situation over there, certainly not a Katrina class event, but it's also not something that can be trivalized or ignored.

Anyway, hopefully other people are safe and sound. And if there is anything we can do to help, with whatever deep pockets we have, lets do it.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020!

TD/TS/H/M
29/28/12/05
18/17/7/04


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
New Systems? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #63112 - Tue Oct 25 2005 08:31 PM

There are Two Disturbed areas in the Atlanitic Right now One is the thing in the South Western Carrib and Looks like it could devlop but my have trouble with the land next to it and there is the tropical wave off the lesser antillies that could devlop later in the week or next week. Does any Met got anything on these ones?

Edited by NONAME (Tue Oct 25 2005 08:34 PM)


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