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typhoon_tip
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Margie]
      #63171 - Wed Oct 26 2005 10:20 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Tropical Depression #26... that just sounds wrong.



I thought so too until I went back and counted:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/

Here is some silliness to consider: If we get Beta out of this, as seems likely, then I don't feel comfortable referring to Beta as an "it." To me, Beta seems like a guy. One the other hand Delta (well, it doesn't seem so farfetched we could get to Delta), seems like a gal to me, and Gamma, another guy. Don't you just hate the entire Greek name thing? It's not like we would ever run out of real names.




...you know what my father said to me the other day? he goes, "what the hell is the big fuss about... when you have a kid and your having trouble figuring out a name you like, you go buy a book and it has pages and pages and pages, hundreds of names to choose from"...

oh man - what could say

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 26 2005 10:21 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63172 - Wed Oct 26 2005 10:20 PM

Ah...what a fun season...already through alpha and another 2 systems might possibly develop in the next week...and then we still have another month before hurricane season officially ends.

Just wondering...what would happen if we got such an active season that they went through all of the greek alphabet? Would they just start numbering the systems or would they go on to some other alphabet?


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63174 - Wed Oct 26 2005 10:41 PM

actually...i'm seeing a couple of shear axis' that could serve as interest in the sw caribbean...

90l still sits precariously by the n panama coast with it's gentle twisting motion and some small convective cells...

there appears to be newly forming axis of rotation situated along the 15n, between 76 and 70w. not much convection there, but with difluence aloft and a shear axis ....gotta watch those. obviously, 90l shall remain the focus for now...

also, the area n of 90l some 200naut miles doesn't currenly have a noticeable circulation but that is the deepest convection...

interestingly, the entire area of the menagerie is beneath what looks like an even better anticyclonic regime than earlier in the day.. we could conceivably end up with a myriad of thing to observe over the next 2 weeks.. the ITCZ is belching up some decent stuff mid way between africa and the island; though the lat isn't too charming...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 26 2005 10:42 PM)


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CoalCracker
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63175 - Wed Oct 26 2005 10:45 PM

My vote's for using Roman gods' and goddesses' names should the Greek alphabet be exhausted. Apollo, Bacchus, Cupid, Diana, etc. Speaking of exhausted, that pretty much describes my mental and physical state right now. Feel like I went 10 rounds with Iron Mike Tyson in his prime. And I thought last year couldn't be equalled. Shows how much I know. Is it possible for someone to give the weather gods a call and ask for a time out? It's really getting old seeing those shaded areas on the NHC's potential development maps just about every day. Here's hoping whatever else develops does minimal damage to the smallest amount of people.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63176 - Wed Oct 26 2005 10:46 PM

Satellite Imagery through 0215Z.
Three systems are visible on satellite loops from 2345Z-0215Z.

90L off the Costa Rican Coast. 81W
91L east of the Windward Islands. 60W
nnL in the area of 42 W.

Of the three above systems. nnL has the most pronounced convection. Cloud tops in the minus80C-85C range.
90L has a much more defined circulation, but less convection (minus70C-75C) and lightning.

91L has dropped into the minus60C-69C range. Possible circulation near the southern end of the convection, east of St. Lucia/ Martinique.

corrected Island names~danielw

Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 26 2005 10:51 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63177 - Wed Oct 26 2005 10:50 PM

T12...yes TD26 is on the NHC site for the 11pm.

t-squared...that area of convection to the N is associated with TD26.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Margie]
      #63178 - Wed Oct 26 2005 10:56 PM

Quote:

T12...yes TD26 is on the NHC site for the 11pm.

t-squared...that area of convection to the N is associated with TD26.




just to be a poop... doesn't "SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. " ....sound like a contradiction to....
"THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI FROM THE GIVEN POSITION." ??

seriously though...i thought it was a depression earlier today, whch you've probably gathered by earlier posts.. also, that stuff to the n of TD 26 - i believe it has disassociated its self from depression when looking at wv imagery.. but, the feature really is of limited concern - i know..


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63179 - Wed Oct 26 2005 11:04 PM

hmmm...wierdly TD 26 discussion is actually the one for former TD Tammy from Oct 6th...someone goofed over at NHC...

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63180 - Wed Oct 26 2005 11:04 PM

That's the normal header for declaring a Tropical Depression~Without Reconnaisance.
The mileage is probably due to the scaling and skew of the satellite images.
It gives a rough idea of the area, if you are in or near the depression though.
However...Most mariners and locals would probably know that a depression was forming from the winds and weather.

Interesting note. Jim Cantore just mentioned the three above systems on the Tropical Update on TWC.

Link for climatology of tropical systems passing through or near Martinuqe from 1888-1996.
http://www.cgste.mq/meteorologie/images/ouragan.gif

Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 26 2005 11:26 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63181 - Wed Oct 26 2005 11:05 PM

Quote:

hmmm...wierdly TD 26 discussion is actually the one for former TD Tammy from Oct 6th...someone goofed over at NHC...




...i haven't even read it yeah but that's histerical if true... yeah, like they meant to classify it earlier today but they got the "no classification" mixed up from an earlier date also?

- just kidding...


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63182 - Wed Oct 26 2005 11:07 PM

well they fixed it now...proper TD discussion listed now.

Forcast wind speeds:
Code:

INITIAL 27/0300Z 11.1N 81.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 11.5N 82.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 12.5N 82.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 13.0N 83.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 13.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 30/0000Z 13.0N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW



So it looks like we will have a Beta in about 24-36 hours...


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63183 - Wed Oct 26 2005 11:11 PM

Quote:


doesn't "SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. " ....sound like a contradiction to.... "THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI FROM THE GIVEN POSITION." ??

seriously though...i thought it was a depression earlier today, whch you've probably gathered by earlier posts.. also, that stuff to the n of TD 26 - i believe it has disassociated its self from depression when looking at wv imagery.. but, the feature really is of limited concern - i know..




No, no. Ok, first, the curved line of convection to the north has always been a feeder band for TD26, and will continue to be. I didn't see your earlier posts today on this.

Also if you look at the visual sat images you will see that earlier today convection was firing off around the southern rim of the center of low pressure as it rotated around to the NW. Then just sometime after the sat images went to nighttime mode something happened, and the convection was on the other side of the center (look at the various 85ghz passes and compare with the given loc for the center), and I could not see a smooth transition. So I have learned that at this state the center can reform and I just took this to indicate that it had reformed or was reforming nearby.

Note--also...see what it says in the discussion? "APPEARS TO BE TRAPPED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH" Now that is what I thought Isaw on the sat earlier before I left work, and why I posted about how I could not see the system moving anywhere but west. Because if you looked at Honduras and higher I thought you could see the bottom of the high pressure and the CW rotation. But I didn't think Clark mentioned this so I assumed I was not reading the sat images properly.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Wed Oct 26 2005 11:31 PM)


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: danielw]
      #63184 - Wed Oct 26 2005 11:17 PM

Quote:


Interesting note. Jim Cantore just mentioned the three above systems on the Tropical Update on TWC.




Never mind i see...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 26 2005 11:18 PM)


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Margie]
      #63185 - Wed Oct 26 2005 11:24 PM

Quote:

Quote:


doesn't "SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. " ....sound like a contradiction to.... "THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI FROM THE GIVEN POSITION." ??

seriously though...i thought it was a depression earlier today, whch you've probably gathered by earlier posts.. also, that stuff to the n of TD 26 - i believe it has disassociated its self from depression when looking at wv imagery.. but, the feature really is of limited concern - i know..




No, no. Ok, first, the curved line of convection to the north has always been a feeder band for TD26, and will continue to be. I didn't see your earlier posts today on this.

Also if you look at the visual sat images you will see that earlier today convection was firing off around the southern rim of the center of low pressure as it rotated around to the NW. Then just sometime after the sat images went to nighttime mode something happened, and the convection was on the other side of the center (look at the various 85ghz passes and compare with the given loc for the center), and I could not see a smooth transition. So I have learned that at this state the center can reform and I just took this to indicate that it had reformed or was reforming nearby.




I understand what you are saying Margie... It just appears to me that the feeder band you have in mention has been bifurcated from the core lat/lon of the depression...


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63186 - Wed Oct 26 2005 11:34 PM

Quote:

I understand what you are saying Margie... It just appears to me that the feeder band you have in mention has been bifurcated from the core lat/lon of the depression...



No there has always been a connection, you can see if if you look over time on the sat images, they move in tandem. You don't have to have an unbroken line of convection along the entire path.

If you go back and look at Wilma from the time she left the Yucatan and when going over Cuba, oh and also when she had moved into the ATL, looking at the feeder bands she had off and on that was very interesting. At first one was actually pulling dry air all the way from the BOC, over the Yucatan, and up through the NW Carib and north into the GOM and into Wilma in the SE quad, and you would not have been able to spot this by looking for convection....later when she was over central Cuba, one went right over Cuba and pulled warm moist air from the Caribbean, helping her to steadily increase intensity while over the loop current N of Cuba. Once in the Gulf Stream, she moved quickly but kept an elongating feeder band in the southern part of the Gulf Stream to bring in warm moist air. Wilma's structure was very interesting...she formed from two symmetric spiral bands, and at different times in her lifespan, those disappeared but then showed up again later...I think the basic structure was always there, just not so apparent in the dense CDO when she was a very strong hurricane.

Edited by Margie (Wed Oct 26 2005 11:54 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Margie]
      #63188 - Wed Oct 26 2005 11:41 PM

Food for thought. The Only Thing I hate about Hurricane season ending is that it gets Cold.

Looks like we might have something to watch for the next week. Between TD26, 91L and nnL.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: danielw]
      #63190 - Wed Oct 26 2005 11:48 PM

Quote:

Food for thought. The Only Thing I hate about Hurricane season ending is that it gets Cold.

Looks like we might have something to watch for the next week. Between TD26, 91L and nnL.




...is nnl this business in the middle atlantic...?


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63191 - Wed Oct 26 2005 11:51 PM

I guess I should cal it something else. As 'nn' might imply that the Navy has it as a "NONAME" system.

Yes, it's the system east of the Lesser Antilles near 61W.


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: danielw]
      #63192 - Wed Oct 26 2005 11:56 PM

Quote:

I guess I should cal it something else. As 'nn' might imply that the Navy has it as a "NONAME" system.

Yes, it's the system east of the Lesser Antilles near 61W.




yeah...cuz i wondered about that earlier tonight...so, it's officially an "nnl" then..hm... i wonder if it will get an invest run in the 00Z GFDL ....that'd be cool!


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danielwAdministrator
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Model Runs [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63193 - Thu Oct 27 2005 12:08 AM

SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
0250 UTC THU OCT 27 2005

270250Z...GFS MODEL STARTED ON TIME. NGM MODEL DONE.
NAM MODEL WAS OUT TO T+75HRS.

00Z RAOB RECAP..

PASY/70414 - 10159; N/A
EYW/72201 - 10142; EQUIP PROBLEMS (Key West.FL)
OKX/72501 - 10158; EQUIP PROBLEMS
KPP/78970 - 10159; N/A
KCR/78384 - 10142; EQUIP PROBLEMS

NOTE: 26 OCT 12Z UKMET WAS TRUNCATED AT 96 HOURS DUE TO A FIRE AT EXETER WHERE THE UKMET IS PRODUCED...
ALSO THE 26 OCT 12Z ECMWF WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE.

EXETER IS OPERATIONAL AGAIN AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOULD BE AVAILABLE...


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