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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63194 - Thu Oct 27 2005 12:18 AM

TD26 is getting so organized so fast...its circulation, while sparse, is becoming very symmetric and large, covering Nicaragua and all of Panama. Just like this aft, you can get little peeks at the large LLC in the NE quad as it rotates. It doesn't look like that much up close, on the floater, and the center is still not well-organized, but if you look from the eastpac or carib sat images, you can see the large-scale organization (or it looks very nice on the navy web site as well). The nice little anticyclonic outflow that was right over the center around noonish, is now looking a little mangled, I don't know what that means, but with such a large area of cyclonic motion, the center is sure to develop.

Just went back to read some posts, and saw that about a fire (!). You just find the most interesting things, reading everything like you do.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Model Runs [Re: danielw]
      #63195 - Thu Oct 27 2005 12:20 AM

INITIAL 27/0300Z 11.1N 81.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 11.5N 82.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 12.5N 82.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 13.0N 83.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 13.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 30/0000Z 13.0N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

...I'm not sure I buy it... We'll see... there's enough here, perhaps theoretically based but real nonetheless, to suggest this could avoid the demise over Nic.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Margie]
      #63197 - Thu Oct 27 2005 12:28 AM

Quote:

TD26 is getting so organized so fast...its circulation, while sparse, is becoming very symmetric and large, covering Nicaragua and all of Panama. Just like this aft, you can get little peeks at the large LLC in the NE quad as it rotates. It doesn't look like that much up close, on the floater, and the center is still not well-organized, but if you look from the eastpac or carib sat images, you can see the large-scale organization (or it looks very nice on the navy web site as well). The nice little anticyclonic outflow that was right over the center around noonish, is now looking a little mangled, I don't know what that means, but with such a large area of cyclonic motion, the center is sure to develop.





...what do you think - I'm getting almost no detectable direction for movement at this hour...absolutely, dead stopped there. it is likely this will become a TS on thursday but i'm surprised at the rather lackluster intensity guidance considering what avails (those being decent to at time amazing looking u/a and boiling hot water (must consider that lat/lon hasn't been processed, as it is relatively rare for that specific location to be so)) anyway, i figure this thing will get to a critical momentum and then we'll see an explosive scenario at some point over the next 3 days - probably sooner rather than later...

...a person study of mine has shown that NHC is underestimates the intensity at upper extremes of systems 75% of the time - hush hush.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
TD 26 and 91L [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63200 - Thu Oct 27 2005 02:09 AM

TD 26
Satellite imagery through 0515Z is showing a "CDO"-like area near the center of circulation.
Dvorak satellite estimates are up from the initial CI of 2.0 to the 0515Z CI of 2.1.

0515Z IR loop is indicating Outflow present in the SW Quadrant. From SSE through WNW.
WV loop showing an double-topped peak of convection near the center. Convective towers? In this stage of development?

91L, just east of the Lesser Antilles, meanwhile has an impressive, moderately large thunderstorm complex near the center...without any other signs of development.

edit-0545Z IR indicating TD 26 is developing better Outflow. The storm now has outflow from the SE through the NW ( 5 o'clock through 10 o'clock positions).~danielw 0625Z

Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 27 2005 02:26 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: TD 26 [Re: danielw]
      #63201 - Thu Oct 27 2005 03:10 AM

NRLMRY has changed 26L to BETA at 0615Z.
Still developing at this time.

Of interest are two other areas of convection in close proximity to TD 26.
One near the Nicaraguan/ Honduran Border and another between Jamaica and the Northern Coast of Columbia. Both of these areas are moderately convective at 0700Z.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Storm BETA [Re: danielw]
      #63202 - Thu Oct 27 2005 04:57 AM

TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...RECORD 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF SEASON FORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/270855.shtml

Excerpts from the 5 AM EDT Discussion.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 35 KT...AND THEY ARE ONLY THAT LOW DUE TO Dvorak CONSTRAINTS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO CORRESPOND TO AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM...BUT THE WINDS HAVE PROBABLY NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CLOUD SIGNATURE.
THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS...
MAKING BETA THE RECORD-SETTING 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON.emphasis added~danielw

MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ENOUGH RIDGING TO DEVELOP IN PLACE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO EVENTUALLY TURN BETA WESTWARD INTO NICARAGUA...BUT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR.
OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...
AND NONE OF THEM BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ALONG THE SAME PATH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
BUT SLOWED DOWN TO NUDGE TOWARD THE GUIDANCE.

FURTHER... SINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST
IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN
36 HOURS IN THE AREAS ALREADY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO CONTACT NICARAGUA REGARDING
THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/270900.shtml


Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: TD 26 and 91L [Re: danielw]
      #63203 - Thu Oct 27 2005 07:00 AM

Quote:


91L, just east of the Lesser Antilles, meanwhile has an impressive, moderately large thunderstorm complex near the center...without any other signs of development.





Near the center? I see banding on 91L, but I don't see any signs of a LLC (or do you mean the physical center of the CDO?). It definately looks larger than it did last night, but it really has the appearance of a front rather than a tropical cyclone, in my opinion. I think it is possible it could ultimately develop (if it does not run into Beta), but it will be a few days at least unless it really gets its act together.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Tropical Storm BETA [Re: danielw]
      #63204 - Thu Oct 27 2005 08:48 AM

So Beta got it together and consolidated overnight. Hmm...the 8am came out and still no hur warnings. Well something must be keeping Nicaragua occupied; no one at the weather service there has time to answer the bat-phone.

And now the Carib is busier than a long-tailed cat in a roomful of rocking chairs, with all the convection generated by Beta, plus 91L finally arrived...and look what's coming from the ATL. Good grief, it's almost Nov.

So what I saw yesterday was a trough...the high referenced by disc #1 is the big one currently out in the ATL. OK, well, ridging is suppsed to develop so at least I was on the right track with what I was seeing.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Tropical Storm BETA [Re: Margie]
      #63205 - Thu Oct 27 2005 09:07 AM

So, Beta has formed. Another record. What is coming from the ATL?

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Tropical Storm BETA [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63206 - Thu Oct 27 2005 09:26 AM

Things really flared up overnight... we have Beta, the tropical wave between Beta and 91L has developed some deep convection, 91L seems a bit more consolidated around the supposed LLC that keeps being mentioned on the TWD, and the wave east of 91L also keeps generating deep convection. The wave between Beta and 91L still has a ways to go to develop and probably won't given the influence of Beta's outflow, assuming that develops as expected. The wave in the western Atlantic is still hanging in there pretty well, despite NHC's repeated statements that winds are not favorable for significant strengthening. That may have a chance if it can get into a better environment.

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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
Re: Tropical Storm BETA [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63207 - Thu Oct 27 2005 09:57 AM

I think I'm finally losing it....I know the public advisory on the front page said 8:00am - now it says 6:59pm.

TCPAT1. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT1.

FORECASTER KNABB

huh?

Too tired to even think. I can't believe we still have 35 days left of this season.

and I did NOT want to see all of this flare up everywhere this morning!!!


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 992
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tropical Storm BETA [Re: Hootowl]
      #63208 - Thu Oct 27 2005 10:14 AM

The Hunters have been on the tarmac at TIA since Monday, but they just took off approx 10:00a.m. Turned south.

--------------------
doug


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Margie]
      #63209 - Thu Oct 27 2005 10:32 AM

Quote:

Note--also...see what it says in the discussion? "APPEARS TO BE TRAPPED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH" Now that is what I thought Isaw on the sat earlier before I left work, and why I posted about how I could not see the system moving anywhere but west. Because if you looked at Honduras and higher I thought you could see the bottom of the high pressure and the CW rotation. But I didn't think Clark mentioned this so I assumed I was not reading the sat images properly.




Depends on which high pressure system you want to look at. The satellite analyses from UWisconsin show one parked over the system...the NHC discussions have mentioned the one left in Wilma's wake well to the NE of the system. They are both correct, in all actuality.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Tropical Storm BETA [Re: doug]
      #63211 - Thu Oct 27 2005 10:43 AM

Quote:

The Hunters have been on the tarmac at TIA since Monday, but they just took off approx 10:00a.m. Turned south.




Assuming they are headed towards Beta, they have a long flight ahead of them.

Beta is looking pretty formidable this morning, with well defined spiral banding features and a relatively small but dense CDO. Since it does not seem to be moving much at the moment, it looks like it will have plenty of time to become a hurricane if it keeps developing as it is now.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Clark]
      #63212 - Thu Oct 27 2005 11:01 AM

11a NHC Discussion mentions the possibility of rapid intensification and it certainly is possible. There's no sense in bringing up Mitch comparisons here, though, despite the similarities in the time of year and location. Beta should become a hurricane by late tonight if it keeps organizing like it has thus far today with a major hurricane a possibility sometime Friday into Saturday. I'd like the see the microwave overpass the NHC is talking about, but the most recent one on the web missed the storm -- so I imagine they have something newer. Nevertheless, it's one everyone down there needs to watch.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Clark]
      #63213 - Thu Oct 27 2005 11:08 AM

Yup I noted my mistake in a later post, but I feel good about taking a stab at trying to understand things by looking at the sat images!

Well there is one on the NRL site from 9am, it just shows a lozenge-shaped blob of convection in the middle, and the two new spiral bands on either side.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Thu Oct 27 2005 12:15 PM)


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Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Jax, FL
Re: Depression #26 Forms [Re: recmod]
      #63214 - Thu Oct 27 2005 11:14 AM

Hi: A new guy so please be patient with me. If you are going to use the Greek letters, that should gamMa be followed by gamPa just to be fair. I do learn a lot from all of you so THANKS.

I get the pun, but I don't think the NHC is going after keeping the female/male alternating names convection with the Greek alphabet or additions to it...just a hunch... -Clark

Edited by Clark (Thu Oct 27 2005 12:59 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 992
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Margie]
      #63216 - Thu Oct 27 2005 12:16 PM

The 1545 vis on the NRL site show a definite LLC in 91L moving fairly rapidly west along 13N. I won't be surprised if the TD 27 designation is given this in the next day.

--------------------
doug


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: doug]
      #63217 - Thu Oct 27 2005 12:32 PM

Quote:

The 1545 vis on the NRL site show a definite LLC in 91L moving fairly rapidly west along 13N. I won't be surprised if the TD 27 designation is given this in the next day.



Good eye...I was just looking at that on floater2 and could not see it. But the NRL is so much clearer. They have it labeled as 12.5N, but you are right, it is 13N.

If you go to the floater and look from 1415Z on then you can see the fast movement, convection just east of the center, that doug mentions.

I am lucky enough to have a cubicle that faces a southern window. In the mornings I pull back the blinds and let the sun shine straight in my eyes. I just crave it, living in MN. So I can't see sat images very well on the PC most of the day, but can see just fine to type in text. Whenever I want to look at sat images I have to get really close to the screen and peer in!

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Margie]
      #63220 - Thu Oct 27 2005 01:52 PM

was about to freak because the recent zoomed out visibles were showing a dark spot at the center of beta. zoomed in using ghcc's neat features to discover it's a shadow from an overshooting top. whew, thought we had another Wilma-esque pressure nosedive starting.
it's a comment already made, but the shallow ocean off the east coast of nicaragua should keep beta's intensity from getting too nuts... if the storm isn't one of those compact systems that has a small, hellishly powerful inner core. not sure which direction it's going right now. worth noting that the usual bottoming-out of the storms that intensify rapidly to high categories takes 3-4 days. early forecasts were getting the storm onshore tomorrow.. but most recently it's pushed back to later sunday. that's enough time to get a very strong system, if it takes the plunge. also interesting that the GFDL has it crossing into the pacific ocean late in the period. it'd have to get some real westward momentum to make it, and i'm not too convinced the steering will ever get strong enough to push it over. something to keep an eye on in case it starts becoming a fixture in the models.
for folks who want to lament how unprecedented the current late season storms are, i'll draw you attention to mitch (at it's category 5 peak seven years ago today), lenny (mid november 1999, the west to east caribbean hurricane), and michelle (forming in the last days of october 2001, for a cuba crossing on november 4). also take a gander at hurricane joan, which smashed into southern nicaragua as a category 4 on october 23, 1988. what we're seeing is quite typical, just extra bothersome on top of the atypically bad season we've been having.
thought i'd chime in on 91L also. it's not holding down quite the persistent convective mass one would like to see for a system to form, but remains coherent and does appear to have a noticeable wind shift and fast north/slow south profile suggestive of formative low pressure. the shear fields for the next couple of days look friendly to it, but with beta revving up i wouldn't be convinced that it won't start getting beaten on by the other system. earlier runs showing it tracing the subtropical ridge and curving up ahead of a shortwave off the east coast are less convincing now that it'll definitely interact with beta, and may get drawn further west or not allowed to develop. we have days to watch it.
HF 1752z27october


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