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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 458
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63222 - Thu Oct 27 2005 02:34 PM

A couple of other features that catch the eye for a brief moment are:

29N 87W: Some sort of low pressure, looks like shear is pummeling it, so it shouldn't be an issue, but it's still something to look at, (if for no other reason than to remind ourselves that not every low pressure develops into a tropical depression )

31N 80W Low pressure moving due north it seems, even if it were in a good environment, it looks like it'd run out of ocean before it is going to run into south carolina.

I think 91L is about kaput, though never say never. The wave in the atlantic also isn't impressing me that much right either.

I also looked up the greek alphabet, and am copying it here those people who don't know it

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta
Epsilon
Zeta
Eta
Theta
Iota
Kappa
Lamda
Mu
Nu
Xi
Omikron
Pi
Rho
Sigma
Tau
Upsilon
Phi
Chi
Psi
Omega

I think we have an outside shot at making it to 30 depressions (that would be 4 more), particularly if 91L and the mid atlantic wave do manage to hang together (which isn't looking likely). There's always late season storms that form (Olga 2001 comes to mind), so just because the water tempratures are lower than summer, doesn't mean that things can't happen.

Considering how poorly I performed with Wilma, I'm not even going to take a stab at Beta

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020!

TD/TS/H/M
29/28/12/05
18/17/7/04


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63224 - Thu Oct 27 2005 02:36 PM

I don't know if anyone cares about the EastPac, esp something moving away from shore, but last night when looking at Beta, I saw some clouds just rolling along in a very pretty circular fashion, and it looked even better this morning, now it is invest 92E on NRL site.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Littlebit
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 47
Loc: Plant City, FL
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Margie]
      #63227 - Thu Oct 27 2005 03:57 PM

I hope it's ok for me to throw this in here since we seem to have a lull in tropical threats. Is it just me or does the LBAR seem to be wishcasting this season?

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Littlebit]
      #63228 - Thu Oct 27 2005 04:19 PM

CFHC needs an FAQ.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml

CFHC doesn't use models. NHC and NCEP do! A glossary would take more space on the servers.~danielw

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 27 2005 07:26 PM)


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Littlebit]
      #63229 - Thu Oct 27 2005 04:46 PM

I agree with you there. LBAR has been everywhere the other models haven't been! What is the point of a model such as LBAR and XTRAP? Never could figure out why they even bother using those. Also, the BAM models - deep, medium and ??shallow?? What's their function? I've always been told that GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS and UKMET are the globals and the models we should concern ourselves with. If someone on here can explain the reason for the other models, i'd appreciate it!

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: damejune2]
      #63230 - Thu Oct 27 2005 04:50 PM

I believe XTRAP stands for "extrapolated" and indicates where the storm would go if it continued in its present direction. Why are models referred to as "global?"

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Ed in Va]
      #63231 - Thu Oct 27 2005 05:13 PM

No coming to Tampa posts? oh wait this is another strom forgot :PP just kidding don't go into a fit but anyway Beta is going to be nothing to worry about in the US and with 69o water temps off the tampa coast i don't see much coming this way but we shall see.

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wulrich
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 11
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. [Re: MikeC]
      #63232 - Thu Oct 27 2005 05:15 PM

The LBAR Model is a two-dimensional track prediction model that is initialized with vertically-averaged winds and upper atmospheric air pressures from the Aviation run of the MRF global model. It is often different from many other models for this reason.

The XTRap is just "extrapolated", as the person before me explained. X Trap iS NOT a computer model, but, indicates the direction in which the current storm is moving, and where it would move if it continued at the current speed and direction.

--------------------
Don't diss the weather. If the weather didn't change every once in a while, 9/10ths of the people in this world couldn't start a conversation.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. [Re: wulrich]
      #63233 - Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 PM

No surprises with the 5pm, and a (un)welcome piece of info from the disc, which says:

AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 1547Z SHOWED A BANDING EYE UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS

Kind of hard for me to tell otherwise, with all the convection, but clearly Beta continues to push on.

But I think this indicates moving on fairly quickly to Cat 2. NHC capped their (so broad it was fairly useless) intensity forecast at 95kt.

edited to add (un) ~danielw

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 27 2005 07:23 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Ed in Va]
      #63234 - Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 PM

You'd figure that if any model would successfully predict what Beta was going to do, it would be the BAM models!

Beware, the more you find out about the various hurricane models, the more my lame joke above will begin to make sense. It probably won't get any funnier though.

"Global" models are numerical weather prediction models that produce output for the entire globe. That is in contrast to regional models, which have a more limited forecast domain (like North America), or mesoscale models which have an even smaller domain.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. [Re: Margie]
      #63235 - Thu Oct 27 2005 05:27 PM

There were a couple of other interesting tidbits from the discussion. The LBAR model was cited for the first time in a long time that I can remember, if only to dismiss its track as unlikely. As they noted, the CMC model track is actually pretty similar to the LBAR, so it is not alone in being out on a limb this time.

I also found this tidbit interesting:

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT FROM SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA.

Either there is a typo there, or AFWA is a really tough grader today.


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Ned
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Loc: W.Coast Fl.
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #63236 - Thu Oct 27 2005 05:50 PM

Quote:

Please forgive me for asking this, I simply can not resist it. Delete me and take away my posting privileges if you must but,
IS IT GOING TO HIT TAMPA? I hope so, then we can get over ourselves once and for all. This is from some one who has had enough hurricane tracking for this year and next. By the way would some one please shut the door on the way out of the refridgerator. Brrrr!


Might be a little early for a call from Polk County

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Ned
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Loc: W.Coast Fl.
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: ralphfl]
      #63237 - Thu Oct 27 2005 05:58 PM

Quote:

No coming to Tampa posts? oh wait this is another strom forgot :PP just kidding don't go into a fit but anyway Beta is going to be nothing to worry about in the US and with 69o water temps off the tampa coast i don't see much coming this way but we shall see.


Tampa? Stay tuned

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63238 - Thu Oct 27 2005 06:10 PM

Also I got to thinking...if Beta goes into Central America, the name may need to be retired. Just one of the weird possible scenarios we talked about before with this Greek naming convention. Since it is going to be moving north and staying over water now for a day or two longer than supposed 24 hours ago, it is less certain that it will turn to the west, although still the most probable outcome...but almost certainly now will be close to major hurricane status when it does make landfall. But even more critical than how strong winds are at landfall, will be how much rain Beta dumps on Central America before moving on or dissipating. Remember the horrific death toll with Stan? Central America doesn't need this. Of course, who does.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Ned]
      #63239 - Thu Oct 27 2005 08:03 PM

Quote:

Quote:

No coming to Tampa posts? oh wait this is another strom forgot :PP just kidding don't go into a fit but anyway Beta is going to be nothing to worry about in the US and with 69o water temps off the tampa coast i don't see much coming this way but we shall see.


Tampa? Stay tuned




Hey Ned, how long you think it will it take for the official prediciton to come through?


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Other areas? [Re: Margie]
      #63240 - Thu Oct 27 2005 08:06 PM

SSD satellite imagery through 2315Z.
91L has dissolved almost all of it's convection.
9_L, that was near 41W last night, is no longer
visible on WV imagery. Having been cut off, or forced South into South America.
A large 'pocket' of dry air now extends from the South American Coast, just east of the Lesser Antilles, and NNE from there into the Mid Atlantic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Beta [Re: danielw]
      #63241 - Thu Oct 27 2005 08:16 PM

Beta's 2345Z current intensity level (CI), using the Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique-AODT, is
3.6; roughly a 57kt wind and estimated MCP of 999.4mb.
Note-CI estimates from other sources may be higher or lower.~danielw
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/research/products/dvorak/odt.html


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Beta [Re: danielw]
      #63242 - Thu Oct 27 2005 08:40 PM

85ghz scans up on NRL now, and, also, you can just see the center of Beta on vis sat image 2345Z, corresponding to the same area. A slightly darker area, it has convection firing almost all around it...everywhere except the NE side.

Which is how Daniel could do the ODT...how do you do that, do you visually eyeball it or use some kind of SW, or did you time-average it from previous estimates?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Thu Oct 27 2005 08:44 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: damejune2]
      #63243 - Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM

Gotta remember, damejune -- we haven't always had the GFS, NOGAPS, and other similar global models. Back not all that long ago, the global models (the ones we have now and older ones) performed horribly with tropical cyclones. Way back in the day, all we had to go off was the LFM and NGM models in terms of global/regional models and the simple track models such as the A98E, NHC90/91, LBAR, and BAM-series. These such models were state of the art not 15 years ago; nowadays, we've come along far enough with data, computing power, and with the physics/dynamics to have pretty good forecasts available to us out of the global models.

Beta's performing pretty much as expected and I think once it finally does develop a consistent eye -- like Wilma -- we'll see it go through a period of rapid intensifcation. Nothing like Wilma, mind you, but intensification to cat. 2 seems quite possible. There is pretty low heat content over the area where Beta's at right now, largely due to the lay of the land there, that should help to keep intensity in check. The further north it gets, however, the higher the heat content. If it stays off-shore longer -- perhaps getting into that area between the Yucatan and Honduras like Mitch did -- the intensity forecast would need to be upped and the landfall forecast delayed substantially. Not calling for another Mitch scenario, but I wouldn't be surprised if the storm did get into that notch of water up there...if only just so.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
ODT [Re: Margie]
      #63244 - Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM

Actually I don't do the ODT. CIMSS, AFWA, TPC and other agencies do it. I just check it frequently.

I have some software that might, (might) do it manually. But it's time consuming and I've never tried to do it.

If you follow the link. It gives a very detailed
description of how AODT is performed.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/research/products/dvorak/odt.html


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