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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Beaumont, TX
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Re: Beta [Re: Margie]
      #63245 - Thu Oct 27 2005 09:00 PM

How heavily populated is the area Beta is supposed to make landfall? I know rain could be a real problem in Central America.
Did NHC ever get in contact with Nicaragua?


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danielwAdministrator
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Beta [Re: danielw]
      #63247 - Thu Oct 27 2005 09:06 PM

Beta has a cloud top peaking in the CDO at 0045Z.
LSU's ESL temperature estimates are in the minus80-85C range.

Giving the resemblance of a 'sunny side up' fried egg.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI1_ir.gif


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Clark
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Re: Beta [Re: Margie]
      #63249 - Thu Oct 27 2005 09:08 PM

The ODT algorithm is entirely objective -- hence the O in ODT -- and was developed by researchers at the University of Wisconsin. It takes satellite pixel data and applies a particular algorithm based upon the organization of the storm to determine an intensity. It takes out human bias/subjectiveness but is still in the developmental stages. All in all, it usually does pretty well, particularly in correcting for things that aren't accounted for in the Dvorak scheme.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Beta [Re: danielw]
      #63250 - Thu Oct 27 2005 09:15 PM

This is a wide area IR loop from LSU ESL.
You can see a front moving in to the Plains. A wave rotating through the Tennesee/ Ohio Valley. And another lighter impulse moving through LA/MS/AL.
I've seen at least 3 Tornado Warnings in Extreme Southern Texas this evening. Possibly associated with downsloping winds off the Sierra Oriental Range in Northern Mexicoand warm? moist air off of the GOM.

edit: Storms in South Texas appear to be more inline with an inverted trough and associated Low over the Midland,TX area.~danielw 0125Z

Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 27 2005 09:25 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Nicaragua Population [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63251 - Thu Oct 27 2005 09:40 PM

Quote:

How heavily populated is the area Beta is supposed to make landfall? I know rain could be a real problem in Central America.
Did NHC ever get in contact with Nicaragua?




5,465,100 (July 2005 est.)
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/nu.html#Geo


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bobbutts
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: ralphfl]
      #63252 - Thu Oct 27 2005 10:14 PM

Quote:

No coming to Tampa posts? oh wait this is another strom forgot :PP just kidding don't go into a fit but anyway Beta is going to be nothing to worry about in the US and with 69o water temps off the tampa coast i don't see much coming this way but we shall see.




I'm not seeing any 69 degree waters within 1000 miles of Tampa
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/PAC/20.jpg
69 degrees Fahrenheit = 20.6 degrees Celsius


106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL
Water Temperature (WTMP): 77.0 F
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: bobbutts]
      #63253 - Thu Oct 27 2005 10:48 PM

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

looks like the LBAR moved even farther north....

but expect a west turn tommorrow from what should be hurricane beta in the morning!!!!

--------------------
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Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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typhoon_tip
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Clark]
      #63254 - Thu Oct 27 2005 10:49 PM

Interesting aspect about the models... As you know, BAM (Beta and Advection Model) has three species

1 BAMS; 850mb to 700mb steering depth near the edges where vortex opens to environmental flow. Essentially better for predicting track guidance with lower tropospheric events such as depressions.
2 BAMM; 850mb to 400mb steering depth is essentially better for predicting track guidance for TS'
3 BAMD; 850mb to 200mb steering depth is essentially better for predicting track guidance for hurricanes..

One must wonder if the establishment of TS intensity will somehow negate the inclusion of BAMS in lieu of the BAMM; and so on to BAMD if hurricane status is achieved.

The interesting aspect leaps out that the LBAR does not include the Beta Effect, nor does the statistical based climatology and persistence - "cliper", and those are the ones that in the 06Z, 12Z and 18Z runs do not want to take Beta westward. It is almost suggestive that to remove beta effects allows the in situ albeit weak tendency to be the predominant steering mechanic, which based on the observations on those three runs of the global based models indeed is a tendency for NNW/N drift. In fact, speaking of the BAM runs...in that order above (1, 2 and 3), particularly in the 12Z run we note that the lowest altitude advection parameters have the deepest latitude track, and the tracks bend slightly north albeit slightly, as the model that is run considers a deeper steering field (pressure means above)

In a way, that tells me that the west track could be dubious because it is based primarily on the absence of critical values deemed negligible, which is risky out in time. The CMC for example is also in the LBAR/CLIPER camp, and I'm fairly certain it doesn't use tricky considerations having to do with the physics of tropical disturbances (like the product of the beta parameter and meridional wind speed..etc)

Forgive me though because it's been awhile since tropical meteorology and these models were new when I was there. But, sufficed to say, at 18Z the GFN - or interpolated GFS? - is also showing "somewhat" more north at 18Z.

If nothing else...it was interesting to see the BAMS be ~1.5 lat S of the BAMM, which was ~1.5 lat S of the BAMD in the 3 runs. Underscoring this is that these have ever deeper mean steering depth respecitively, AND, the deepest (BAMD) is at least in the direction of none Beta Effected model runs.

It's probably not too cogent to use these observations in a meaningful correction because lets face it...deep layer steering field is weak so Beta Effect becomes large when scaling the influences. However, I still believe that because Beta's wind radii is relatively small, as she intensifies she will be less susceptible to Beta Effect; we may just see lest W tug in the models in the 00Z run - if not, probably afterwards...

It is all hairy, because if I am right about this basic premise and supposition thereafter, it is entirely possible that Beta will drift more N and never make the W turn; then, we have an important full latitude trough timed for beyond 100hours, for the most part unanimously agreed. That ups the stakes farther N...
Actually, it should be noted that the LBAR is trending W in time. It wouldn't be for Beta Effects however; there would have to be something else imparting the trend..

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Oct 27 2005 10:58 PM)


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Old Sailor
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63255 - Thu Oct 27 2005 10:56 PM

Maybe you should read the NHC 11:00PM , I feel there track record been very good not like some on here.

Dave


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Old Sailor]
      #63256 - Thu Oct 27 2005 11:03 PM

Quote:

Maybe you should read the NHC 11:00PM , I feel there track record been very good not like some on here.

Dave




...judging by your tone with this i suspect you are some how offended??
my apologies - i merely offer an alternate point of view that incorporates factual knowledge about model design against what is observable in the field..
...nhc's track record with track guidance was never in question... but, i always read "their" information as it is adroitly superior to much of ours indeed.
...lastly, it depend on who you are critiquing with backhanded japes like "...not like some on here". most of what is offered here is conjecture, some more based in education than others but primarily a nice environment for people who are very interested in the field and want to share their ideas and opinions with others. that's a friendly reminder for you.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Oct 27 2005 11:04 PM)


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La Nimo
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63257 - Thu Oct 27 2005 11:30 PM

Looking at the LBAR model it has shifted about 400 miles north in the last 24 hours, from tip of S Florida to Cedar Key, not doing a good job of forecasting.

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: La Nimo]
      #63258 - Thu Oct 27 2005 11:38 PM

Quote:

Looking at the LBAR model it has shifted about 400 miles north in the last 24 hours, from tip of S Florida to Cedar Key, not doing a good job of forecasting.




yeah i mentioned that at the end; btw: none of that was a prediction...it was just some things i were considering regarding the way the BAM group of models work....and then wondering how that compared to the LBAR...that all.. like i said in that post, can't make a cogent correction using this analysis...

pesky little storm though...very small.. in fact, that is why i am suspecting NHC keeps having to move the inland time, further out in time, because it appears to me the primary steering mechanism has to be beta effects, which indeed by theory would impart a nw movement, and the beta effect is in fact less effectual for small scaled disturbances. just an interesting point for me; but, if anything beta should be growing in time and if steering feild from S to N never materializes, a WNW motion should ensue - that is, going by this philosophy herein.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Oct 27 2005 11:39 PM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: La Nimo]
      #63259 - Thu Oct 27 2005 11:58 PM

lbar? that's like using the daily show for keeping tabs on world events. entertainment purposes only.
i can loosely comprehend what tip's talking about, and don't see a problem with him tossing it out. some logic to the fact that the early models didn't see this thing coming north, and may not have a handle on the real steering... though i don't have much reason to doubt the rebridging of the ridge to the north will block beta and sling it across nic. a lot of folks on here could do with the jethro-ized version i'm sure, 'cause, well... that level of education in meteorology just isn't on every street corner.
not much to the analysis tonight. think the NHC track is fine, and won't need any fixing unless something else pops up on it's eastern flank (which isn't impossible, seen such things before). true that the 91L has pretty much evaporated, but there's still a perturbation in the atmosphere from it that can cause trouble when it starts bumping into the cyclonic windfield around beta.
wondering if it's just mental association that we're all wondering if beta advection will dominate the future of beta. next thing we'll be talking about beta decay and counting isotope ratios in the air over nicaragua. get ready with that geiger counter.
checked out a blurb from joe b earlier.. he's thinking both the first and second follow on waves can have down-the-road implications. we've already had three systems pop up in the caribbean on the edge of that ridge, Wilma alpha beta, so i don't see why it can't keep turning them out as long as the pattern holds. after the amplification near the east coast during the first couple of days of november there's a call for the ridge to start edging westward. bastardi's commentary also noted the next block starting to show in europe, which could teleconnect to ridging in the eastern u.s. as we get into november. punchline is that with the wacky continuation of tropical activity this season, something else might have an opportunity to sneak in. gonna watch the coming pattern like a hawk, see if anything starts peeking.
so anyway, that's six storms in october. oddly the most active month of the season so far in terms of raw #s. july august september were five apiece. probably not shabby on the ntc activity either.. Wilma was a powerful hurricane for days on end. think it'll sit second to emily in terms of days spent as a major. 882mb.. whatever.
HF 0358z28october


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63260 - Fri Oct 28 2005 12:06 AM

...true, it may all be a moot point in terms of subtle ridge response when current e n/a trough lifts out (60 + hours or so?) anyway, yeah - indian summer signaled in the extended.. not sure what that would mean to the tropics but instincts tell us a strengthening easterly regime - always helpful when you don't just want to break a record but pulverize it... also, with such phenomenal u/a seemingly endlessly in favorable mode during the foreseeable future...no trouble with extending this show for an additional act or two; SST anomalies, not sure how much that will quantifiably play a role here but on a basic intuitive level, more heat, more storms...

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danielwAdministrator
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Beta... [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63261 - Fri Oct 28 2005 06:03 AM

Beta...as in. Beta watch this one closely. Still slowly intensifying, and still playing tricks on NHC and others.
I made a comment about Beta's appearance, on enhanced IR, last night. Something like a 'sunny side up' fried egg.
Beta, at this time has a heart shape.( Even on the correct axis). With a Minus90 cell right in the middle of the heaviest convection.
Beta has thrown these cell or tower spikes of and on for most of the night. Each new cell being just a bit colder than the previous cell.
http://esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI1_ir_loop.html

Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 28 2005 06:29 AM)


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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher


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Re: Beta... [Re: danielw]
      #63262 - Fri Oct 28 2005 06:15 AM

-90C? Jesus. That's pretty cold, even for deep convective tower cells, isn't it? I don't know what the "normal" range for your average TS, or even Hurricane is, but I know -90 is way out there on the end of the chart on the IR sats.

Looks like the season's rearin' up for an ending with a bang.

e: I just looked at that IR loop in the post above this one. Looks like it's TRYING to wrap around and form an eye with each of those towers. Once an eye forms, doesn't it gain greater abilties for strengthening?

Edited by BullitNutz (Fri Oct 28 2005 06:32 AM)


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Ned
Weather Watcher


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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: StPeteBill]
      #63263 - Fri Oct 28 2005 06:34 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

No coming to Tampa posts? oh wait this is another strom forgot :PP just kidding don't go into a fit but anyway Beta is going to be nothing to worry about in the US and with 69o water temps off the tampa coast i don't see much coming this way but we shall see.


Tampa? Stay tuned




Hey Ned, how long you think it will it take for the official prediciton to come through?


Dont know Bill,but when Polk gives the word,we will know Tampa is in the clear Until then,all we can do is watch+wait.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Beta... [Re: BullitNutz]
      #63264 - Fri Oct 28 2005 06:37 AM

Rough math here...really rough.
Std temp is 15C. Subtract 2C/ 1000ft.
90+15=105/ 2= 53,000ft roughly.

That's with out a calculator, METS, so forgive me if I'm way off.

Way Up there about 9-10 miles High!


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics [Re: Ned]
      #63265 - Fri Oct 28 2005 07:10 AM

You missed my first post it was the 15/16th post on Beta. I saw the local weatherman on Cable news9 showing how she was going to briefly go north and then make a hard left hand turn over Belize, He was pointing out the Yucatan peninsula as a landmark for where she was NOT going. I had the sound down so I did not hear any qualifyers if there were any said. So I was surprised when I turned on the satellite this morning and it was still building and not moving left yet like he said. As for 69 degree waters, that has to be surface level at 3 am in the morning, because we had a very hot summer and the weather has not been cool enough to prevent the sun from radiating through the waters locally. If we had a week of cloudy skies and cold weather maybe.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Beta... [Re: danielw]
      #63266 - Fri Oct 28 2005 07:15 AM

I can't believe I got up tihs early without the alarm.

Things looking a little different this morning, as far as future track. An alternative to the west turn into Nicaragua now seems like a reasonably possible outcome. However what I'm seeing is more like the situation that Wilma was in, and not a turn to the NE, but more like brushing Nicaragua/Honduras, and heading generally towards Cancun.

And what was really striking was looking at the wave train on the Western ATL and Carib sat. Still so much energy going into the Caribbean!

As to why Wilma's forecast increase in intensity didn't happen, it has been shear. It started to look like that last night, with the eye open to the northeastern side, and looking at the current vis sat loop this morning is very apparent her structure has been getting really sheared away from the ENE all night long.

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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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