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Area for development tagged in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf), 20% development in next 5 days (may increase later into next week)
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 226 (Zeta) , Major: 289 (Laura) Florida - Any: 975 (Michael) Major: 975 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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meranto
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 12
Loc: Ridderkerk, Netherlands (51.52...
Re: Beta... [Re: danielw]
      #63267 - Fri Oct 28 2005 07:25 AM

Quote:

Rough math here...really rough.
Std temp is 15C. Subtract 2C/ 1000ft.
90+15=105/ 2= 53,000ft roughly.

That's with out a calculator, METS, so forgive me if I'm way off.

Way Up there about 9-10 miles High!




By checking the Skew-T log P diagram of the San Andreas Islands you will see that the -90 level would correspond to 16.6 km in this case, 10.3 miles, around 96 mbar of air pressure.
Not so rough after all


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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
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Re: Beta... [Re: meranto]
      #63268 - Fri Oct 28 2005 07:36 AM

Was this forecast? Is this a sign of possible future explosive strengthening a la Wilma?

If it gets deeper like that, will it be affected by higher steering currents and possibly move in a different direction?

Just wondering.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Beta... [Re: BullitNutz]
      #63269 - Fri Oct 28 2005 07:51 AM

Quote:

Was this forecast? Is this a sign of possible future explosive strengthening a la Wilma?

If it gets deeper like that, will it be affected by higher steering currents and possibly move in a different direction? Just wondering.



Not with this shear.

The steering currents are not that different right now for a stronger storm, there would just be little chance of a turn to the west, but a situation more like Wilma's.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
Re: Beta... [Re: Margie]
      #63270 - Fri Oct 28 2005 07:55 AM

I see. Instead of cutting across Central America, it would rake the coast and probably die on the Yucatan?

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
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Re: Beta... [Re: BullitNutz]
      #63271 - Fri Oct 28 2005 09:20 AM

It would not die on the Yucatan, but let's not even go there until it is something that could be in the realm of possibility, which it is not, since shrinking Wilma has not even reached hurricane strength, and currently has less than optimal conditions for development.

Take a look at the sat images...the convection building up to the east of Beta is more impressive than Beta's convection. It looks like that is the tropical wave that started out at around 72W on Thurs morning, its energy also became a feeder band for Beta, last seen more or less from about 9pm last night (look on the W ATL / Carib sat) with the remnants of 91L on its heels and starting to merge into it. Meanwhile...Beta is developing another feeder band wrapping all the way overhead and then down to the right and south, back to where the warmest water was, just north of Panama.

I don't know how the interaction with the remaining tropical wave energy in the Caribbean today is going to interact with Beta. Hoping to see a post soon from Clark or HankFrank!


--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. [Re: MikeC]
      #63272 - Fri Oct 28 2005 09:42 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

Looking at the link, the out flow seems to be extending to the North. It looks like it is streching North and South. I don't see any kind of "blocking" feature to the direct North. My call is it comes further North the NHC currently is calling for. Could get real exciting if it passes Honduras.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Beta... [Re: Margie]
      #63273 - Fri Oct 28 2005 09:43 AM

The big flare up of convection NE of Beta adds another fly in the ointment to the forecast. Since 91L is probably in there somewhere, there is a slight chance of something tropical developing out of that, but in any case it seems like the intense convection is causing enough outflow to disrupt Beta somewhat. The very cold convection with Beta right now is not a surprise, since systems undergoing some shear often produce colder (but asymmetric) convection. When a perfectly symmetrical system starts producing super-cold cloud tops (i.e. Wilma), then you know rapid intensification is occurring.

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Beta... [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63275 - Fri Oct 28 2005 11:32 AM

I believe it is becoming increasingly possible that the area of disturbed weather moving through the central Caribbean now may take the ball and run into the NW Caribbean and develop, whether as its own entity or merged system with TS Beta, and become a threat north of 20N. The trough moving across the lower Mississippi valley is digging quite far south into the western GOM and seems to be in a position to pull this disturbed area and TS Beta north/north-northwestward. Beta is beginning to move a bit further north at 4 knts, and is north of the model init positions. Don't know what may come of all this, and only the Canadien makes trouble for the CONUS, but it seems that a further north solution is quite possible. If its far enuf north, it could get into the Yucatan Channel as shown in the 12Z NAM. Remember yesterday the models were too strong with the ridging in the SE US, and this allowed TS Beta to come further north. If the flow remains progressive (as shown by a number of models) then anything in the NW Caribbean early next week should find a seam in the ridge to make a northward run. On the other hand, if TS Beta makes the sharp left into Nicaragua, the disturbed area may develop on its own and move to the NW. Third, Beta may hold out long enuf before making the left turn to disrupt any development of the Central Caribbean disturbance, dissipate over Nic/Hon, and allow the remnant disturbance to dissipate in the westerlies. This may be last call (we Hope) for the 2005 season, as the longer range shows (GFS) less favorable conditions north of 20N, as the westerlies bring on Fall to the east. We'll watch and see, but the Caribbean still could be trouble for the CONUS next week. Hopefully this will shut the door on what has been historic and tragic hurricane season. Cheers!!

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Beta... [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63276 - Fri Oct 28 2005 11:41 AM

Quote:

The big flare up of convection NE of Beta adds another fly in the ointment to the forecast. Since 91L is probably in there somewhere, there is a slight chance of something tropical developing out of that, but in any case it seems like the intense convection is causing enough outflow to disrupt Beta somewhat. The very cold convection with Beta right now is not a surprise, since systems undergoing some shear often produce colder (but asymmetric) convection. When a perfectly symmetrical system starts producing super-cold cloud tops (i.e. Wilma), then you know rapid intensification is occurring.




Normally, It would not surprise me if this fly in the ointment quelled just a tad during the day, for merely having taking advantage of the nocturnal cycle (where nighttime cloud-top radiative transfer augments instability in the area..etc.) However, I suspect there is a synoptic cause.

(As a side note: This presentation/looped satellite imagery almost looks like a Great Plains nocturnal MCC of all things...; also an event aided along by radiative properties of the mid/u troposphere. ...But, since this is a tropical sounding over hot water down there, whether this was aided along by radiative transfer or not would probably be a coincidence.. )

What I do find interesting is that vigorous tropical wave that entered the eastern Caribbean Sea yesterday. It has raced to approximatley 70W, while the circulation of Beta sits increasingly uncomfortably near. The llv structure of a t-wave usually bends the E/ENE background environmental flow somewhat more NE at the surface, as a given region is approached by the wave axis (for N-S oriented wave axis'), as well as accelerating the flow just tad. It may just be that the eastern semi-circular atmospheric motion of Beta, albeit weak at nearly 5 degrees separation, is interacting normally with these said NE vectors. This would induce a llv through perhaps h850 mb convergence axis - roughly colocated where we see cloud tops temperatures as cold as the Beta's core, near 75 longitude.

Unfortunately, that is a data sparse region so it is difficult to confirm this using obs to support a convergence field if one truly exists. ...So, I suppose I shall try to find other means to demonstrate this hypothesis..

In the meantime, agreed! This should be watched... The water is warm and there is a definitely anticyclonic outflow evidenced by sat, over the entire area. Favorably placing a convergence axis, incidental or not, is an intriguing proposition to say the least.


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Beta... [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63277 - Fri Oct 28 2005 12:08 PM

Typhoon Tip - Laymens terms huh....do any of these systems have a chance of hitting Fla or the other areas of the gulf coast??

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Beta... [Re: Steve H1]
      #63278 - Fri Oct 28 2005 12:12 PM

Quote:

I believe it is becoming increasingly possible that the area of disturbed weather moving through the central Caribbean now may take the ball and run into the NW Caribbean and develop, whether as its own entity or merged system with TS Beta, and become a threat north of 20N. The trough moving across the lower Mississippi valley is digging quite far south into the western GOM and seems to be in a position to pull this disturbed area and TS Beta north/north-northwestward. Beta is beginning to move a bit further north at 4 knts, and is north of the model init positions. Don't know what may come of all this, and only the Canadien makes trouble for the CONUS, but it seems that a further north solution is quite possible. If its far enuf north, it could get into the Yucatan Channel as shown in the 12Z NAM. Remember yesterday the models were too strong with the ridging in the SE US, and this allowed TS Beta to come further north. If the flow remains progressive (as shown by a number of models) then anything in the NW Caribbean early next week should find a seam in the ridge to make a northward run. On the other hand, if TS Beta makes the sharp left into Nicaragua, the disturbed area may develop on its own and move to the NW. Third, Beta may hold out long enuf before making the left turn to disrupt any development of the Central Caribbean disturbance, dissipate over Nic/Hon, and allow the remnant disturbance to dissipate in the westerlies. This may be last call (we Hope) for the 2005 season, as the longer range shows (GFS) less favorable conditions north of 20N, as the westerlies bring on Fall to the east. We'll watch and see, but the Caribbean still could be trouble for the CONUS next week. Hopefully this will shut the door on what has been historic and tragic hurricane season. Cheers!!




Careful ...last night I attempted to even hint at a N adjustment and I used a kind of tactical analysis of the BAM clusters (the biggest W motion cheerleaders of the band-wagon for days now...) and only HankFrank defended me - D'oh. Which is good, he's pretty damn bright about this stuff... Anyway, the short and skinny was that the BAMS is a llv intended use, which incorporates beta effects along with the advection field (hense the name)... The BAMM does the same, but for a deeper layer: mid-level through H850. Finally, the BAMD does so for upper level down to H850...

My issues were basically that...
a) Beta drift is more effectual on systems with bigger circumvellate (vorticity and torsional analysis is too complex so just state it as so...) and the storm "Beta" is a small circulation - though is growing in time.
b) I have a problem with relying on one camp (with Beta Effects) vs another without, alone, because obviously both apply vectors in this situation... Maybe that makes the argument a wash?

Anyway, it was just intended as an alternate way of analyzing this, and by coicidence, the worst forming model, LBAR was the biggest cheer-leader for a N pull (save the CMC for this context). Eh, not lending a much confidence... Now, hearing/seeing the NAM (the 2nd worst model for tropical events!) being N is....unfortunatley not doing much more to change the opinion... Maybe, finally, another more trustworth run will shift... Let's see: Nope... Again, only the LBAR and the CLIPER (12z) say N... Funny, they are verifying better on these positions this morning... And of course, the 00Z CMC refuses to back off from striking Florida in a few days.. Yet, I suppose if we have to throw another entity (75W) into the fray....nothing is going to be correct!!

Still...Like HankFrank said and I agree... I can't get over the fact that after this trough lifts out that is currently over E N/A, heights should rebound near the Gulf somewhat, larger, lesser....

Oh, you want more headaches? Ok, well, a larger ridge response would impart a 'blocky' type regime and supply the (finally, phew) the W motion that everyone is just dying to see happen... While lesser would probably be negligibe in effecting anything but a slower motion. And, either form when looking at the global ensembles is very dern close to equally probablisitically weighted toward an occurrence. So, when you give mention to yesterdays models, some of those ensembles were actually weaker than the ridge that was verifying, so yes and no, but moreover, it has to be an uncertainty how this spatial evolution really plays a role in effecting storm (or storm"s") motion.

Anyway, I do agree on the interesting feature near 75W... Very interesting events down there to watch today!!


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Beta... [Re: damejune2]
      #63279 - Fri Oct 28 2005 12:24 PM

Quote:

Typhoon Tip - Laymens terms huh....do any of these systems have a chance of hitting Fla or the other areas of the gulf coast??




Hi...sorry...
my own opinion is the threat is minimal at this time...
but...this is one of those times where i wish there was a crystal ball...
thing is, in the simplest terms, the situation "appears" to be getting more confusing this morning... i'll just number the considerations in no particular order of importance.
1) potentially another system near 75w; if that occurs in earnest, all bets on track guidance are off because obviously, it is so close in proximity to Beta that they'd likely interact in some form or another.
2) this looks very interesting on satellite but ....looks can be deceiving as we are forced to learn over and over again.
3) it is unclear how much ridge will develop near the upper gulf coast in lieu of troughing lifting out in eastern n/a over the next 72 hours. if that ridge is a stronger fixture, than you know it would be more of a block, which could impart a west component to the track. if it is a weaker after-glow of the trough, it would probably cause a little more than a stall to perhaps subtle westward drift.
4) "1)" + "2)" +"3)" = hign uncertainty.
5 there is an even large scale consideration in the synoptics of the hemisphere right now... (Are you familiar with indices??) basically, signals suggest a substantial patter change, one that should feature a stronger presents of the subtropical sw atlantic basin ridge out in time (beyond 72 hours); or at least one building w at low latitudes.. This could also exert an influence on track because it could nudge the whole playing field w in time, regardless of the smaller scale influencers surrounding cyclone interactions (should that take place) and ridge strengths..etc.

...in the end, with everything here to consider...(and I'm sure i've left some out)...the odds of any one location (even the size of a state in this case) cannot possibly be ascertained with any certainty at this time - which i'm sure you're ok with.. but, this is uniquely uncertain... any "cone" of probability is probably more like a gigantic semi-circle that is essential W - N - E, though not S.


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 346
Loc: Southeast, FL
Wilma wilma [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63280 - Fri Oct 28 2005 12:34 PM

Well i got power , telephone,and internet back this morning. For me Wilma is the 5th Eye i have been through in the past 10 years, and the 2nd major hurricane. Back in my river in stuart florida we had a storm surge of 6 feet becuse willma came from the west. Wilma made a jog south when making landfall in south west florida and crossed over to the east coast in less then 2 hours bye the time the western eyewall was on land the eastern eyewall was back over the warm waters of the gulf stream so Wilma i belive did not weeken at all. NHC conservativly made her a 105
when crossing my area but pressure only went up 6 millibars and was 956 millibars up from 950 when it hit sw florida with 125mph winds. the first eyewall was weak my anometor only reported winds sustained at 70 gusting to 100, but when the second wall came winds went from 25mph to 95 sustained gusting to over 100
then the real weather hit my boat shook like mad the gusts where unlike anything expirienced in the eye walls of jeanne, or Frances winds are now 93,95,94,96,105,99,100,104,110 then it got even worse a huge gust that seemed to last an eternity came. i am now hiding afrraid objects are slaming into the boat as if someone is hitting it with a baseball bat i look up at the wind gauge it now peaks out at 133mph then the wind
calms and drops back to 95 then another gust comes through just like the one before it i go to look at the gauge and its now reading 0 the cups on the anometor are gone the hole spinny part is intact but the cups are gone.

This storm was all as bad as hurricane jeanne if not way worse. building that didnt flinch in Frances or jeanne were completley destroyed in Wilma in talking to people after, evryone agreed that this storm was the worst of three wind wise with the exception of jeanne having a much higher storm surge around 8.2feet and a pressure 3 millibars lower.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Wilma wilma [Re: Robert]
      #63281 - Fri Oct 28 2005 12:44 PM

cool story... my actual hands on experience iwth hurricanes is limited to 1, gloria in 1986.. nothing like what you described however. gloria caused a significant wind event across southern new england but was less than the bigger events we've had up this way in lore...such as 1938, which gust to 186mph at an official NWS observation post sw of boston. anyway, gloria was fun for the loud roaring the preceded each gust... where i was living at that time was heavily boreal, so there were the loud pops and cracks constantly going off within as concophony amid the roar of the winds... it was all over in just 5 hours ( not atypical for events striking new england as they move so incredibly fast). we lost power for 5 days and most places had in back in 3 weeks - i think.. the storm could have been a lot worse for us because gloria had max sustained winds of 155 while in transit in the atlantic, but as it neared the bahamas, it weakened to a category 3...than 2 near the carolina outer banks, then 1 as it cross long island... but, it was moving so fast, 45 mph, that adding this momentum to even tropical storm force wind gust became a formidable experience; still, could have been much worse if that odd weakening near the bahamas did not ultimately spare new england...

...wilma was screaming along when she got to the eastern part of the peninsula.. i believe she was moving better that 25mph at that time and accelerating... if you were in the southern/southeastern semi-circle of her circulation, this translational velocity needed to be added to the wind action... this likely augmented some of her "real" strengths. in any event, must have been a strange combination of terror, awe, and fascination as an experience!


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 408
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Wilma wilma [Re: Robert]
      #63282 - Fri Oct 28 2005 12:46 PM

Quote:

This storm was all as bad as hurricane jeanne if not way worse. building that didnt flinch in Frances or jeanne were completley destroyed in Wilma in talking to people after, evryone agreed that this storm was the worst of three wind wise




My boss who lives right on the intracoast in Jupiter agrees. This is even more amazing considering Wilma came clear across the state. Granted the flat, wet Everglade don't slow hurricanes down much, but clearly Wilma was packing a strong punch.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Wilma wilma [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63283 - Fri Oct 28 2005 12:50 PM

has anyone taken note of the interesting gyre that is tumbling along 10N near the Islands?? What is that? Is that vestigially related to that deep area of convection and associated tropical wave in the central atlantic 4 days ago??

hmm...it's probably nothing but really cool to watch turning on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html... there's also another feature like this though apparently weak ene in the atlantic.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
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Re: Wilma wilma [Re: Robert]
      #63284 - Fri Oct 28 2005 12:51 PM

Reason the storm surge wasnt as great as Jeanne or Francais was due to it coming form the SW. Im sure you knew that though and were just stating the point. Also everyone that I talked to also said the same about the impact of Wilma over the 2 last year that went near PB and South Florida.
Beta shows great outflow this afternoon and is a strong TS but Im not sure its a hurricane yet as the center appears to be on the northern edge of the convention. Not exactly sure why this is,,,maybe due to the fact there are lower pressures its ENE with the disturbance over the central carribean making it want to tug that way. In general with Beta wanting to go NE towards the weakness and a ridge building over central amercia, its in a tug of war pretty much.
Anyways the models are coming more in line with a agreement (although I havnt seen the GFDL) on taking Beta NW over the next 2-3 days and making landfall near Nic-Hond boarder then bringing it into the NW carribean near 18N and 85W sometime sunday night. A strong trough is forecasted to build (simular to last weekend) over the central US and into the gulf...Anything there should push it towards Florida or across Cuba towards the bahamas during the middle of next week....The CMC model is usually off like the LBAR on the globals but does have consistancy. The Ukmet ( which did the best with Wilma) also has been consistant on a track NW then N towards the gulf and now even the GFS shows (after weakning on landfall) emerging into the NW Carribean then NE towards SW Florida.
First off we would want to see more consistancy and consolidation into the models for the next couple runs and also the exact near term movement will have an affect on strength and direction inthe long run.
With this trough digging into the SE gulf right now.. I dont see much of a west turn into the Nicaragua coastline but I do think it will come very close or if not make landfall near the SE tip of Honduras. Then a movement (quicker then Wilma) N towards the Gulf or Cuba during Monday.
Some might say about Wilma turning up the NW carribean waters and the trough this week cooling off the Gulf.....yes it did have some affect but it wont weaken the system anymore then it is......I do suspect shear to develop over the Gulf with the trough but then again it will be moving (if at all there ) with the flow.
Overall anything could happen in the near term with Beta so we dont know whats going to happen more then we did 12 hrs ago.....Next 24-48hrs will determine if this is a threat to Florida.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Wilma wilma [Re: Robert]
      #63285 - Fri Oct 28 2005 12:59 PM

Wow, you live on the boat!

You know there must be something about anemometers and wind gusts over a certain amount. Maybe they are rated to only a certain level of windspeed. When Katrina hit, Pascagoula's anemometer stopped pretty early on Monday morning...it gusted to 137mph before higher gusts ripped it apart.

Scott -- the reason Beta's convection is to the SW...it is getting sheared like no tomorrow.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Fri Oct 28 2005 01:03 PM)


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Wilma wilma [Re: scottsvb]
      #63286 - Fri Oct 28 2005 01:28 PM

Wait a minute Scott, your confusing me. I just checked this board to see what was happening. I thought Beta was going into Nic and dying! All the models I find have it that way. Except the LBAR which is always wrong anyway...LOL! Then I read your post. Are you saying the new models have it more of a threat to the South Coast? Honestly, I hope I read your post wrong. I am so tired of storms. I'm ready for winter.

Jackie


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Wilma wilma [Re: emackl]
      #63288 - Fri Oct 28 2005 01:54 PM

Yeah I guess your reading it wrong cause I just gave ya some speculation if it does go out into the NW carribean. Right now we dont know more then we did 12 hrs ago. I feel it will go into the NIC-Hond boarder then (maybe) emerge into the NW carribean. For now,, who knows.

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