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Area for development tagged in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf), 20% development in next 5 days (may increase later into next week)
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 226 (Zeta) , Major: 289 (Laura) Florida - Any: 975 (Michael) Major: 975 (Michael)
 


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MikeCAdministrator
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Beta Now Category 3, Landfall in Nicaragua Later Today
      #63311 - Fri Oct 28 2005 07:33 PM

430AM EST-Sunday Update
Beta is now the 7th Major Hurricane of the 2005 Atlantic Season.
Landfall should occur within the next 8-12 hours.
~dw

UPDATE: As of 2AM Saturday, now a Category 1 hurricane. NHC indicates that the turn to the west has begun.
-HF

Tropical Storm Beta is moving slowly northward today, but expected to bend back westward toward the coast of Nicaragua. It may be a category 1 or 2 hurricane as it makes landfall. It has been taking a while and moving a bit more north than originally thought, but it is still forecast to move back westward.



There is another area east of Beta near Jamaica worth watching too. Looks like the Caribbean will be busy for a little bit over the next several days.


Chances for tropical development south of Jamaica in the next two days:
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---*------------------]



Event Related links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Beta

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Beta - Static Image
cimss Beta Page

91L

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of 90L - Static Image

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 30 2005 07:05 AM)


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Marlinfan65
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: MikeC]
      #63312 - Fri Oct 28 2005 07:48 PM

Hi all. Long time lurker of the site. Just wanted to thank everone for the great information prior to Wilma hitting South Florida. I live in NW Broward county and just got my power back. Made out pretty well thanks to new building codes and some good advise from fellow posters. Anyone interested can view a short video I shot
out a small opening in my back door during the peak of the southern eyewall passing.
Steve B.
Wilma video


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: MikeC]
      #63313 - Fri Oct 28 2005 07:54 PM

I am certain that out of all of the Caribbean disturbances, that something may escape in the form of a winter storm or extratropical system, due to the fact that we had a flock of the white waterbirds that resemble flamingos or king fishers to come up into my yard and linger around the neighborhood today as though they were looking for a calmer safer place to be. This has happened each and every time that a storm headed from the Caribbean or Cape Verdi area in the Florida direction. It happened with Stan, Katrina, and Wilma. I believe it also happened with Dennis as well. This is not a forecast for a storm to hit Florida nor is it an intensity forecast, the birds simply seem to respond to something in the atmosphere that says to be careful. So, maybe a little energy from one of those disturbances may escape towards this direction before the Caribbean cools down for the winter.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Margie
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: MikeC]
      #63315 - Fri Oct 28 2005 09:11 PM

Did I miss something?

Beta moved from 81.4 to 81.3 in the last 24 hours.

Yes, basically just being a smart-alec.

But you may yet have to change the title of this post!

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #63316 - Fri Oct 28 2005 09:49 PM

I live in Delray, power is still off. We decided to go to South Each for the weekend. My kids are in private school, one started today (with no power) and the other starts Monday (with power). No more perishbles in the cooler so we're keeping our fingers crossed that power will be on Sunday. We had trouble with sewage from the pumps being down, so the Water Dept had to come and hook a generator to the pump; they say we're good for 4 days now.

We had neighborhood parties every night, but its getting old fast. My office has been closed for a week and with sporatic cell service its been a pain. This has been much worse than Francis & Jeanne combined. Especially when my hurricane shutters (3 of them) flew off the house. I should say were ripped off the house by the force of the wind.


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La Nimo
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63317 - Fri Oct 28 2005 09:53 PM

Were they the High plastic shutters you used, because I found they need to be carefully installed, or they come off in a high wind.

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Lee-Delray
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: La Nimo]
      #63318 - Fri Oct 28 2005 10:07 PM

The lexan shutters were fine. It was the metal ones. It wasn't the shutter, the entire screw was ripped from the house. We're in the process of replacing that and the other 2 slidders with impact glass. We're also gettinga generator since we have natural gas.

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craigm
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #63319 - Fri Oct 28 2005 10:40 PM

Hey Guppie maybe they're responding to statistical data:

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200526_climo.gif

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist


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ralphfl
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Margie]
      #63320 - Fri Oct 28 2005 10:47 PM

Its moving NNW at the 11pm update and also they moved the track wayyyyy south.


Sorry no tampa.
who exactly are you trying to bait, ralph? no tampa takers on this one, bud. you're all alone. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Oct 28 2005 11:00 PM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: ralphfl]
      #63321 - Fri Oct 28 2005 10:55 PM

Reading through the 11pm discussion, this line is interesting:

"BETA IS
GOING THROUGH ITS USUAL UP AND DOWN CYCLE IN THE CONVECTION AND NOW
IT IS ON THE UPWARD TREND WITH A VENGEANCE.
"

I'd quote the whole thing, but you can read it over at the NHC


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HanKFranK
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63322 - Fri Oct 28 2005 11:10 PM

the official forecast is about the same as last time.. NHC crew thinks the long-awaited turn is starting, too. whereas wednesday night we were talking about this thing hitting near bluefields far to the south, tonight it's up north of puerto cabezas, almost on the honduras border. official turns it hard enough to keep it out of the gulf of honduras, which looks pretty much right. once the storm weakens enough the low level flow should continue to push it west/inland... very slowly. the huge pacific moisture surge associated with a strongly negative SOI that accompanied stan's crossing of the region at the beginning of the month is not there this time. pattern is positive SOI and the trades should be strong enough to prevent quite the areal extent of flooding that stan managed.. but where the core moves over slowly there ought to be some considerable flooding. lots of deforested hillslopes in the region that like to come down on upland hamlets. we can only hope that the governments in the region are raising public awareness about the dangers they may be facing when the storm arrives.
secondary interests: the 91L feature had a widespread convective area this afternoon.. but that has decayed to more scattered stuff this evening. still a low-level gyre near 70-72w... which should pinwheel along the northeast flank of beta. too close and disorganized now to do any significant development for the next few days, but will be interesting if a discrete entity remains once beta is inland and decaying.
wave near 48w with a large associated turning and scattered convection is plowing westward towards the caribbean. may encounter a more favorable environment as it closes in. this feature will be with us into early next month, though no models show any significant activity with it.
nothing more beyond that except to mention that the favorable pattern in the caribbean should continue through the near future.
HF 0310z29october


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Margie
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63326 - Sat Oct 29 2005 12:46 AM

Please tell me what I am missing, because it seems to me the NW dir it has gone in the last five hours (0.3N 0.3W change in dir) is only indicative of steering because of the features to Beta's NE, not anything to do with a ridge of high pressure in the GOM that hasn't built yet, that will force the turn to the west. So final concensus on whether Beta turns is not clear yet. The only thing that is clear is that some NW movement is going to occur. Also if Beta gets the opportunity to strengthen, before the ridge gets in place, won't there be more of a tendency to move more NNW or NW, not to the west.

Also...wish that the questions I'd asked about the upper level low moving into the W ATL / Carib had been moved to this new thread, as it seems it is already starting to have a big impact on the upper level wind flow of the air around that strong high in the ATL, and I'd like to hear more feedback about what it could affect in the Caribbean.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Tak
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63327 - Sat Oct 29 2005 12:53 AM

Lurker since 99. Great site.

On IR looks like Beta has had some really cold cloud tops bloom. Also, what is the feature at 11N 60W? On water vapor looks like definite spin.

By the way, I enjoy the bickering between Ralph and the rest of the world.

that thing at 11/60 is an upper low. not with you on the bickering part... -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Oct 29 2005 02:03 AM)


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Margie]
      #63328 - Sat Oct 29 2005 01:02 AM

Hi Margie...for what it's worth, here is our last interchange on that disturbance

Quote:

That's not what I'm wanting to know.

I read the TWD and this is what it had to say (they tend to mainly be observational):

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 10N57W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INLAND SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO AT LEAST 20N AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W AND 63W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM I9N52W TO 9N63W.

It just appears to me that it is barreling into the Caribbean and already pulling some moisture from the tropical wave+91L. I want to know the implications of how it could interact with the tropical wave and the high that is over the central Caribbean. Remember there is no vorticity currently at all with the tropical wave.

BTW on the NRL site, they have switched the image of 91L to the other tropical wave in the central Caribbean, so I'm guessing that 91L has been mostly absorbed there, but NRL is still going to refer to it as 91L?





Quote:


Oh...I see... well, in that case.. not sure what the implications will be but in the hierarchy of atmospheric phenomenon, believe it or not, .the u/a low will always win... If it barrels along and tumbles into the western caribbean, it would be shredding the convective elements and absorbing them into the circulation core of the u/a vortex, as well as damping out the more typical upper level wave structure in the atmosphere - speaking in terms of the central Caribbean wave that is....

As for Beta, with more stowed momentum and development she'd fight off the impending shear quite a bit but would eventually subcumb by being attenuated until it was too weak to fight any more and it too would get gobbled alive; that is, should the unlikely occur with the u/a low, that it would careen smartly into Beta's vicinity...

...the models do not really show this feature too well and so it is unclear if/what/when/how it will interact with any activity further down the line. However, with a deep layer subtropical ridge N and NW tending to gain amplitude, it would probably tend this feature on a continued W or perhaps slightly WNW heading.. It would interesting really, because it would likely then have to slow down near the Puerto Rico to Cuban Archipelago area and spin for awhile - if not spin down.




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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63330 - Sat Oct 29 2005 07:56 AM

As of 8 am the satellite imagery is looking very intense and beta does not appear to be going west anymore. But, we can always hope.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Hurricane Beta [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #63331 - Sat Oct 29 2005 08:58 AM

Quiet here...only one post since 1am...

Just getting people up to date: We now have a 70kt hurricane.


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Hugh
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #63332 - Sat Oct 29 2005 09:15 AM

Quote:

As of 8 am the satellite imagery is looking very intense and beta does not appear to be going west anymore. But, we can always hope.




The high-level flow would seem to push Beta west into Honduras based on visible imagery... I can clearly see the flow moving from east to west.... but... Beta ain't moving. Looking at the WV loop, it (is Beta a he or a she? LOL) is caught between opposing forces and going nowhere. I say it sneaks northward enough to get into the Gulf of Honduras, if not even further northward. The deep cloud tops seem to be trying to form even further north, so Beta might even reform north of its current position, although I think a gradual merger of the two cloud masses is more likely. Actually now I see THREE distinct bursts of convection... at least - not counting the former 91L. If all of those congeal into Beta, we could be looking at a massive storm, size-wise.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Beaumont, TX
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #63333 - Sat Oct 29 2005 09:53 AM

I think the birds know something. After Rita hit and my husband came home to survey the damage he found bird poop lined
up in a row along the bench and the windowsills on the back porch. I feed the birds so they must have taken refuge on the porch for
safety. What was interesting is how you could tell they had lined up closest to the brick wall on the porch.

How much rain will Beta bring to Nicaragua? Also, is this the last storm are do ya'll think there will be another one?


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Hugh
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63334 - Sat Oct 29 2005 10:35 AM

Quote:

I think the birds know something. After Rita hit and my husband came home to survey the damage he found bird poop lined
up in a row along the bench and the windowsills on the back porch. I feed the birds so they must have taken refuge on the porch for
safety. What was interesting is how you could tell they had lined up closest to the brick wall on the porch.
How much rain will Beta bring to Nicaragua? Also, is this the last storm are do ya'll think there will be another one?




If Beta makes landfall in Nicaragua... lots! If not, still quite a bit.

Looking at the big picture.... I think we'll see at least two more storms before the end of the year. I see two areas - one approaching the islands that looks pathetic, another that will approach the islands in a couple of days probably that looks somewhat less pathetic. Even if neither of those develop, the way things are going this year, we're likely to have a front stall out sometime in November and form into Gamma. I also would not be shocked to see Delta form in December. We could be looking at another Storm of the Century type situation this winter.

I just read the 11am Discussion on Beta. This is interesting:
In addition...some of the deep tropical moisture associated with Beta
may get drawn into a developing winter-type low pressure system
over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

What do they mean by "winter-type" low pressure system over the GOM? I do NOT like the sound of that! "Winter-type" sounds an awful lot like ice and snow.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat Oct 29 2005 10:42 AM)


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ftlaudbob
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Thanks [Re: Hugh]
      #63335 - Sat Oct 29 2005 10:40 AM

Thanks for all your pm's.It is still a big mess here,and there are very long lines for gas.Thanks again for all your kind words.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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JohnS
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63336 - Sat Oct 29 2005 10:40 AM

Quote:

I think the birds know something. After Rita hit and my husband came home to survey the damage he found bird poop lined
up in a row along the bench and the windowsills on the back porch.




Are you saying that Rita scared the $heet out of them?

I read the site regularly now, and I appreciate all the time and effort people put into the posts to help keep people better informed. I also appreciate all the effort to keep this site up and running. It is a great service to all. I don't have cable, so this is one of my main souces for info.


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Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: MikeC]
      #63337 - Sat Oct 29 2005 11:33 AM

Just a concern from a NON-weather expert living in north FL - can anyone explain to me why Accuweather is showing Beta north of Cuba heading toward FL by Thursday??? They always seem to be a bit different than anyone else with their speculations. Is this just to be different or are they using tools that no one else has access to?

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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: JohnS]
      #63338 - Sat Oct 29 2005 11:35 AM

Funny! However, that is what birds do better than eat. But, as far as storms go, when we were at Walmart on Sunday before Wilma, the birds were all so confused here in Central Florida. They were responding to the cold front from the north and the hurricane from the south and they were all flying around in small circles landing any place that would hold their weight and having conferences about what to do next. They reminded me of the congress, the various committees that get appointed after disasters and the general public trying to get information. So far we are not seeing any confusion like that with Beta. Every thing this morning is calm but there is a stiff wind. I am not looking forward to anyone in Florida getting another storm. The prices are high and grocery stores this direction are having a very hard time stocking normal nutritious fruits and vegetables. If you want junk food, chips and such for ball games it is a gold mine.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Hugh]
      #63339 - Sat Oct 29 2005 11:43 AM

There isn't enough cold air around for snow/ice very far south... I think by "winter-like" they just want to emphasize the non-tropical nature of the system. The main concern would be severe thunderstorms.

Tough to tell because the eye is obscured, but it appears as if Beta is taking the expected turn to the left.


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Margie
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: JohnS]
      #63340 - Sat Oct 29 2005 11:56 AM

I don't know if anyone has noticed, but...Honduras is going to get a heck of a lot more rain than Nicaragua. I am not sure why the focus has remained on Nicaragua all this time she was moving north.

Oh and good morning all...I slept in. I see the forecast is back up to 95kt at 11...as it should have been at 11 last night, to correspond to the rhetoric in the disc. Also good to see they are talking about major hurricane before landfall.

Another "pinhole eye;" shades of uneasy.

The 5am discussion from Stewart was so outstanding, esp compared to what we have seen the past two days.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HanKFranK
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63341 - Sat Oct 29 2005 12:05 PM

it isn't moving much at all, but beta's northward momentum seems to have slackened off now. seems the weight of almost all the globals is more than that bullish northward motion beta insisted on taking from its inception. really hard to know if the intensity numbers provider are close to right, since the storm is still small and the eye is concealed by thunderstorm blow-off. recon will better fix that info this afternoon, but the storm could be anywhere inside the strength range suggested by the Dvorak scores.
91L is not well defined anymore. the energy from it should propagate into the nw caribbean on the north side of then-inland beta, and get gummed up for a day or two. not very likely it can do something in that time, but a small chance will exist, as some of the models seem to see a weak low signature up there.
none of the models see more than a wave out of the feature near 50w, but it seems to have taken the forefront in terms of development candidates. it's been holding down persistent scattered convection on it's forward edge, and has a weak surface low at about 13n. upper low ahead of it should keep it under modest southerly shear, but it is moving into a high SST region and the shear profile may slowly relax over the next couple of days. pattern is modestly supportive of further development in the caribbean--with active waves like these the chances of such an event are high enough to merit attention.
HF 1605z29october


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roatanisland
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63342 - Sat Oct 29 2005 12:16 PM

Can anyone tell me what the probabilites of Beta hitting the Bay Islands of Honduras are? We live on the eastern end of the island of Roatan, the largest of the bay islands. We got some really bad weather from Wilma and are concerned with Beta moving in now. Just wondering if we should consider evacuating as there is a flight out tomorrow morning we can get on.

It seems like most of the tracking systems still show it going into the mainland of Honduras and staying to the south of us. But the winds have already started to pick up here and have been increasing. Any help or insight would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,
Justin


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #63343 - Sat Oct 29 2005 12:37 PM

Currently, the trough over the easter contiguous U.S. that has brought cooler than normal weather for many areas east of 85W - in lieu of Wilma - and adjoining large-scale features are being transitioned into a new pattern. That is beginning to take place this morning!

The new regime will feature zonal to at times a very progressive trough above about 37N during the week and accompanied by flat ridging building into the areas of the deep south... Meanwhile, the counterpart expression of these large scale changes will tend a subtropical ridge dominance in the Atlantic Basin as well; which may in fact become connected to all and really drive a warm 3-5 day period for the southern 1/3 of the U.S..

Again, the infancy of all these changes beginning today.. As a side note, areas of the northeast U.S., currently getting unseasonably cool conditions with even some wet snow associated with a last gasp of foresaid trough, are going to experience a 20F temperature jump as close by in time as Sunday afternoon, do to these large scale changes. This is stated to demonstrate the rapidity in which these types of pattern changes can occur, and this will do so and most likely block any N moving tropical disturbances. Pattern at large is changing; the indexes that are used to determine the confidence levels for that prognostic are also quite lending to that confidence.

In simple terms, Beta has a very short lease on life... Yesterday in a post I stated that the TC had about 18 hours left of more N component to motion, then the ridge of the deep south and adjacent areas would begin to steer the system more W. The only fly in the ointment of that philosophy then was the exact degree of amplitude of the ridge that was replacing the trough, currently leaving the East Coast. Those uncertainties are disappearing per the last 24 hours of model runs combined with verfication of pressure/height rises currently taking place over the eastern Gulf and SE U.S.. These features mean that it is extremely unlikely that Beta will find the wherewithal to move much further N than the latitude already achieved. Any errors that were seemingly present in the models from 3 days ago, regarding the timing of such turn are finally ironing out - as indeed it appears the only error was that there was perhaps a bias to turn W too quickly... Those are no longer relevant from this point forward however; a, it's in the past, and b, large scale changes are more readily observed, present in the models, and will therefore begin to dictate more concertedly where Beta will motion - not this wobbly to the N routine... Definitely very W in nature over the next 24 hours.

Beyond the immediate storm surge and wind impacts at the shores, this is unfortunately likely to produce a tremendous amount of heavy rain over a landscape that has a particularly exaggerated vulnerability to flooding and mudslide activity. Extensive developmental practices of the land have caused erosion prone hill-scapes. I'm familiar with the wet season climatology of the area being April through December - however, rarely does this include these types of TC. There's been little to test the land-slidable loose hill-side sediments (save Mitch?). These are going have to take large rainfall deposition where formerly there were rain forests and/or deeper vegation root systems in general. The pre-developed era aided in preventing much of that... Remove those root systems and change the land-scape for hill-side farming and the SOIl loosens, and it's a nasty feed-back scenario where thousands of years of no mud-slides because of healthy flora system can result extreme short-duration catastrophics affects for having removed that system. In other words, "disaster potential" is exaggerated and needs lesser of triggers to have larger results... So, there are some uniquenesses about the geography of that area anyway, and over the last 100 years those in situ risks have been augmented by the presents and activities of man.

It simply is going to be a very rough day tomorrow and beyond for Central America; the last thing we need is this SHIPs hyper intensity guidance to go up to 65% on the last run! ...which it has.

Other than Beta...NHC mentions that the wave in the Central Caribbean still might get absorbed into Beta... I'm disinclined to agree. Beta has a very small, compact circulation that is equally small in how it controls the surrounding environment. Moreover, as soon as it moves inland it will begin losing potential influence.. In fact, from the statellite obs I've studied this moring, the wave is not being affected by Beta's presents at all, not even for outflow. To mention, there are subtlties in the steering levels for respective disturbances that don't really suggest an interaction is looming... It is for these reasons that I believe Beta will continue to migrate with increasing W component, move inland, while whatever the wave does it will likely do so unperturbed by Beta's evolution over the next 24-36 hours.

There is also a notable mid-U/A low that is tumbling though, decelerating into the eastern Caribbean Sea. These types of systems need some relatively rare scenarios to bore down to the surface to where they can couple with the SST's and begin transitioning into warm core systems... The current Caribbean arena is hostile to those situations.. It is more likely this feature will weaken as it move NW and lose identity altogether over the next 3 days.

Another system is approaching the Lesser Antilles from about 600naut miles (est by sat)...This wave occasionally hints at cyclonic orientation but seems to lose it again.. Provided the above mentioned U/A low is out of the area of the Caribbean - attenuation - this feature would likely encounter a favorable U/A as it enters the area; so something to watch.


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: roatanisland]
      #63344 - Sat Oct 29 2005 12:57 PM

Quote:

Can anyone tell me what the probabilites of Beta hitting the Bay Islands of Honduras are? We live on the eastern end of the island of Roatan, the largest of the bay islands. We got some really bad weather from Wilma and are concerned with Beta moving in now. Just wondering if we should consider evacuating as there is a flight out tomorrow morning we can get on.

It seems like most of the tracking systems still show it going into the mainland of Honduras and staying to the south of us. But the winds have already started to pick up here and have been increasing. Any help or insight would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,
Justin




...You should "tentatively" be ok... There is some additional risk until Beta actually succeeds in making the more westward motion that is heavily anticipated by most forecast models and agencies alike..

...You should take note of your local methodogies for quick departure just in case, just to have those available, but right now it looks like you are on the lower end of the probability for being impact directly by this system.

...Current, watches are warning for hurricane Beta (NHC):

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA
PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

...It appears that by this time tomorrow, Beta will be moving WNW if not W... This motion would bring it asshore over the extreme NE Coast of Nicaragua... From there it should move primarily W and begin losing intensity. This decay won't be too fast at first becauas the coastal plain in that area is fairly flat with slow rolling none-affectual hills. However, as it moves west the terrain will become increasingly hostile and taller. Beta is a compact storm so when she does begin to lose intensity, the suspicion is that it will be very quick... However, an extreme rain and flood threat will persist for a number of days, and this may enhance normal rainfall across the Bay Islands N of the Honduras shores - that's a beautiful area by the way!!

...In a nut shell, you probably do not need to evacuate but if you have access to "official" recommendations regarding the matter, I'd suggest you use those! In the meantimes, probably will be an impactor for area well enough S of you - slim margin granted, but S nonetheless...
Good luck!

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Oct 29 2005 12:59 PM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63345 - Sat Oct 29 2005 02:58 PM

couple of comments:
1) beta's progress west, extrapolated, gives a landfall a little south of puerto cabezas around 04z or midnight eastern time. recon should shortly fix the intensity so we can get an idea of how fast it's deepening, and get a good idea of how much more it can do before making landfall. like the forecast says, cat 2 is the safest bet, though a small-core cat 3 wouldn't be surprising in the least. it has a definite hurricane signature on satellite, but by its compact size and eye being consistenly shrouded by convective blow-off the true intensity is hard to easily estimate.
2) what tip said about the beta/91L interaction. beta's circulation envelope is pressing against the slow, elongated gyre extending southeast of jamaica, but hasn't really entrained it. as beta will be ashore and weakening tomorrow, and this feature continuing to move through a moderately favorable development environment (ridging aloft, some surface convergence), it can potentially begin to assert itself.
3) potential recon for the surface low/spotty convection feature at 13/52 for halloween day. it is better defined than yesterday in spite of continued s/se shear from the upper low ahead of it. the upper low appears to be elongating and filling, which should result in an improved outflow pattern nearby.
in a nutshell, the idea of the caribbean crowding up isn't laid to rest by the finicky nature of 91L, as the original disturbance lingers and a new one approaches from the east.
HF 1858z29october


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63346 - Sat Oct 29 2005 04:33 PM

HURRICANE BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005
...BETA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT REPORTS
REPORTED OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N... 82.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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damejune2
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #63347 - Sat Oct 29 2005 04:40 PM

I read Accuweather's "expert" comments on Beta a little while ago. A little alarming if you ask me telling folks that Beta could possibly go north after hitting Nic/Honduras. They are saying that it could go through Cuba and then South Fla........not something i wanted to hear about. Anyone got an idea on this?? I haven't read too much about Beta on NHC site; are they saying this is a possibility too?

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


Edited by damejune2 (Sat Oct 29 2005 04:40 PM)


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SEFL
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Re: Thanks [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #63348 - Sat Oct 29 2005 05:16 PM

Things almost back to normal in northern Palm Beach County. My electricity came back today and there are no lines at gas stations.

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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: damejune2]
      #63349 - Sat Oct 29 2005 05:36 PM

That forecast is one of many model guesses. It is the one that will get the most viewers to read the website as well. However, the article does not say it will come to florida or effect florida just that it will come near Florida by Thursday if it takes that path.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Margie
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Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #63350 - Sat Oct 29 2005 06:14 PM

I should have stuck to my original take on Beta. First I thought the ridge was stronger than it turned out to be, then just as I decided it was weaker, it got stronger.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Tropics Guy
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Re: Thanks [Re: SEFL]
      #63353 - Sat Oct 29 2005 07:53 PM

FINALLY got my power back today here in Broward county., South Florida is about 50 % restored now. Gas lines are shortening and some stores are re-opening.
Personally, lost half of my roof and most of the trees, there were definetly Cat 2 wind gusts around here, locally they were reported at 108 MPH here in Dania Beach (1 mile from FLL airport.)

TG

quite a lick for a back-door storm coming across the everglades. hope the repairs aren't too long in coming. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Oct 29 2005 08:28 PM)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Thanks [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #63355 - Sat Oct 29 2005 10:20 PM

92L has been classified. Its the tropical wave nearing the Lesser Antilles.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Random Chaos
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Re: Thanks [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #63356 - Sat Oct 29 2005 10:39 PM

92L is in the latest TWO - possible development over the next several days. Something to watch after Beta makes landfall.

--RC


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
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Re: Thanks [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63357 - Sat Oct 29 2005 11:15 PM

The SHIPS model brings it to 62K in 82hrs.

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Random Chaos
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Beta: Category 2 [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #63358 - Sat Oct 29 2005 11:25 PM

11pm is out. Beta is now officially a Category 2, and has the possibility of reaching Cat 3 before landfall.

--RC


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Margie
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Re: Thanks [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #63359 - Sat Oct 29 2005 11:25 PM

Beta certainly looks better than Cat 2 (so named in the 11pm) on IR right now. The eye seemed smaller (until the 0245Z, that is) and strong convection finally symmetric around the core.

I guess we won't know exactly how strong she is at landfall because outside of the two afternoon recons there were no others scheduled. The area of hurricane-force winds was extremely small (30nm), and remains that way in the advisory, but appears on sat that they might have spread further out.

Starting to get that sick train-wreck-in-slow-motion feeling. How many times have we gone through this, in the 2005 hurricane season.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Margie
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Re: Beta: Category 2 [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63360 - Sat Oct 29 2005 11:36 PM

I don't suppose there is time left, or the chance they'll want to put another recon in the air now?

update -- It's clearly a major hurricane on sat imagery now.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Oct 30 2005 12:19 AM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: Beta: Category 2 [Re: Margie]
      #63363 - Sun Oct 30 2005 12:57 AM

might be closing on 3. t-ratings are 5.0 and that's what it's set at.. but those are a little old. earlier i was thinking it would be making landfall about now, but it's not accelerating any more like i thought it would, as well as the fact it's moving wsw at about 240-245 and not due west. looks like the landfall may end up being closer to puerto limon than puerto cabezas. very compact storm... chances are not high the worst of the wind will cross an urban center.
gotta take issue with this quote from the 11pm disco:
THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD MOTION IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND THIS TURN
WAS BRILLIANTLY FORECAST BY THE GFDL AND BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS.
i don't know what planet avila has been on the last couple of days, but GFDL and the whole mess of globals have had this thing going due west from the get go.. and there was about 48 hrs of northward drift they simply didn't capture. not sure how that constitutes 'brilliant'. if the early GFDL was to be believed the storm would already be in the pacific ocean.
speaking of which, if the GFDL is really brilliant then beta will end up making it across to the pacific... as run after run it goes across. a lot of the other globals have it moving ashore further north and drifting through honduras, along a fat cross section of central america. the current sw motion is more in line with the GFS/gfdl crowd, and those models tend to push the storm further wsw and across (though admittedly the GFS has it too weak and kills it after a few hours onshore). i'll stay with the inland camp, but am keeping the possibility in the back of my mind. not a very big storm, and there's nothing to overtly suggest it will survive, even if it makes cat 3 in the next few hours.
the whole 91L mess to the rear has sort of spread out.. a lot of moisture went streaking off on the outflow jet from beta, but some of the residual vorticity is floating along near jamaica. beta will be losing influence over the area, and there is a strong convergence zone in the nw caribbean. final word isn't written on this thing yet, though it has very little chance of doing much.
new 92L looking no worse for wear. there's more convection, but the low cloud motions don't suggest any tightening of the circulation. there could be more going on in the flaring northern part of this feature, as cloud debris is obscuring the low level field. this system is very slowly getting more organized, though globals still don't see much anything to it. it's going to be moving over the warmest waters in the basin within the next two days, so if it's going to develop it'll likely happen before too much longer. there's another energetic low amplitude wave back near 30w, which the globals have roughly the same opinion of. westerlies are finally really chopping up waves above 10n out near the cv region, so the ability of defined waves to feed under the rather resilient subtropical ridge shielding the caribbean is on the wane. pattern shift is underway, and it will probably result in more of the basin becoming closed to development (outside of those nontropical-origin cutoffs that happen from time to time regardless of how the basin looks).
as things stand there's a modest potential for a follow-on to beta next week, with an extremely slim chance of a second. there's also a low but present chance that beta gets into the pacific as a viable entity and garbles the upper pattern evolution that most models are showing.
later everybody.
HF 0457z30october


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Margie
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Re: Beta: Category 2 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63364 - Sun Oct 30 2005 01:09 AM

I was beginning to feel very alone watching what appeared to me to be a major hurricane about to make landfall.

Yeah I caught that in the discussion too and wondered what little story was behind that. I wonder if it had anything to do with Stewart's earlier writeup on the models.

I realize the eye has not cleared out completely but look at the shape. I've never seen a hurricane this season slough off all of the irregular edges of convection to achive that symmetric puffed donut look, without being a major hurricane and usually not until they get to Cat 4 intensity (had to edit here...this reads ambiguously but no I was not saying Beta is now a Cat 4, no way, only that I've only seen that shape before on Cat 4s).

It just started moving faster. The curved coastline it is approaching is allowing the inner core to remain intact closer to landfall.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Oct 30 2005 01:31 AM)


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Annie Oakley
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Re: Beta: Category 2 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63365 - Sun Oct 30 2005 01:29 AM

Uhhhh...this is to HankFrank-this is my first post here but I have to say (and I hope I don't get in trouble) that whatever you said in your post is so awesome to me-in fact-all of the posts here just blow me away! I am a weather novice and not young. I am from Texas and the hurricanes really get me going but the way ya'll talk just leaves me breathless. I love the intensity of it all. I know I sound scary like a Halloween freak but I really mean it. If I had it to do all over again I would have studied weather and even then I probably couldn't even touch this! Thanks to all of you dedicated weather watchers. I also am in a position to help hurricane victims and believe me, if only more people would pay attention to what the hell is coming their way. Anyway, I am now a devotee of this site and of weather of all kinds but hurricanes are my favorite for some reason. Maybe cause I used to read a lot of Jack London books-I love the sea. This waas a ramble but justto let you know that at any time you can effect a change in a person's life or intersts. Thanks! Oh, HankFrank the way you said all that-I wish I had a recording of it cause it was so poetic and beautiful to me.

that's weird. try and stay on topic on this forum. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Oct 30 2005 01:40 AM)


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Margie
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Re: Beta: Category 2 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63366 - Sun Oct 30 2005 01:44 AM

The last two frames as everything but the inner core ripped away, the eye cleared out considerably. Just offshore now is a very small strong core.

It appears Beta will fall apart very rapidly and intensity will drop off very quickly once onshore, then the rain event will continue.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Chemstud2004
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Final Intensity analysis [Re: Margie]
      #63367 - Sun Oct 30 2005 01:47 AM

I've been a visitor on this site for 3 years now and this is by far the best site for discussion and learning about these marvels of nature.

That being said I thought I'd finally put in my 2 cents about Beta. (My first post so please don't be too harsh )

We will likely never know its intensity as it pushes onshore...we should have an idea of its minimum intensity but clearly do not have the technology even at that time to accurately predict the actual intensity without reconnaisance data. Even so I'd like your thoughts on the following without making this sound like a Wishcast:

What we know....

1) pressure near 979 mb at 4pm Saturday from recon reading and flight level winds not quite reading the estimated 90MPH advisory value.

2) Small eye feature developing according to recon at that time improving in structure over previous 12-24 hours.

What we can guess at...

1) A pinhole-type eye structure has finally formed and consolidated itself on IR and Dvorak imagery over the past 6 hours surrounded by -80 to -85C cloud tops. The few storms that form such a feature average between a 4-8 mb/hr drop in pressure until steady-state dynamics take over (Gilbert, Wilma). Beta probably has 6 more hours of significant/explosive deepening in store, at least until frictional effects take over, but with a very small radius of maximum wind, the core should not weaken until essentially onshore or unless it stalls.

2) Unlike the abovementioned monster storms that bottom out....Beta will unfortunately make landfall near or at its most intense wind/pressure.....I would make a comaprison to Iris, which also had a 5-6 mile eye prior to landfall in SW Belize with rapid intensification to Cat 4 status and a tiny inner core structure.

3) Winds may not catch up to pressure intially and up until now because of the rapid organization/deepening but I'm afraid it will by landfall...

4) The winds could be stronger than expected near the eye for its pressure due to the tighter than average pressure gradient for its pressure (again due to the tiny wind core)....this means that Cat 4 winds could be supported by pressures as "high" as 940-950 (Charlie and Iris were about 945mb at 145mph). Also, Wilma deepened by more than 80 mb in just 12 hours with a similar eye structure, albeit better outflow channels so who knows how strong Beta is or may get.

Best guess:

Without an anemometer and a barometer at the Nicaraguan coastline, if the strengthening trend continues, a rough estimate of intensity may be:

Current pressure/wind: 940-955mb (my guess is near 950 mb) with max wind to 110 knots (winds still catching up)

Landfall pressure/wind: 915-945mb (my guess is near 935 mb) with max wind to 130 knots (should be able to catch up with pressure drop by then)

Love to hear your thoughts....I'm just an analytical chemist using the lifehistory of storms over the past 23 years to generate an intensity forecast....it is truly a rare event in this day and age to NOT know such a realtime scenario with a landfalling major (assumed) hurricane in the Atlantic basin since no new recon missions will likely be scheduled for this storm ( no need for the 2pm recon on sunday since landfall will have occurred by then).

In any event my prayers will go out to the families affected by this tragedy. While land area affected won't obviously be as large as Mitch, the localized devastation could be easily as bad.


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Margie
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Re: Final Intensity analysis [Re: Chemstud2004]
      #63368 - Sun Oct 30 2005 01:54 AM

They will post it at the 1am.

They conservatively left it just short of Cat 3...I'm a little surprised looking at the eye. They surely would have seen the 0515Z before posting the advis. But even with landfall in just a couple hours, and only the inner core intact, NHC still indicated it was possible to get to Cat 3 before landfall, which also surprises me a little, as I think time has just about run out.

So HF your estimate was right on with the NHC's.

0545Z eye continued to clear out, the SW movement will leave it over water just a tad longer...I think it likely the 5am will mention Cat 3 before landfall.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Oct 30 2005 01:18 AM)


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Chemstud2004
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Re: intensity forecast... [Re: MikeC]
      #63369 - Sun Oct 30 2005 01:59 AM

As I was writing my last post, the satellite imagery showed cloud tops warming and CDO size decreasing.....hopefully the insane intensification seen in some hurricanes this year will not happen now....and hopefully my short term forecast was wrong.....

that's why im a chemist and not a meteorologist....i just play one to get the Holiday Inn discount rates.


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danielwAdministrator
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Beta 0815Z [Re: Chemstud2004]
      #63370 - Sun Oct 30 2005 03:55 AM

Nice Satellite shot showing the Eye.


Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 30 2005 03:58 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Beta-Major Hurricane [Re: danielw]
      #63371 - Sun Oct 30 2005 04:43 AM

Beta has become the 8th Major Hurricane of the 2005 Atlantic Season.
The 4AM EST Sunday Advisory has increased Beta's wind speed to 115mph making Beta now a Category 3 Hurricane.
Beta is expected to make landfall during the day on Sunday (today). Beta has a very small Eye, with Trop. Storm force winds extending 60 mile out and Hurricane Force winds extending 15miles out.

The last few discussions have hinted heavily at the possibility of Beta's Vortice moving into the E. Pacific. While remnants of tropical moisture spread northward, and at this time, are forecast to be picked up by an extratropical Low, forecast to develop in the GOM.

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 30 2005 05:28 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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San Andreas Island [Re: danielw]
      #63372 - Sun Oct 30 2005 05:51 AM

The last weather report from San Andreas Island was at 0700Z.
Temp 79F ; Dew Pt 73F ; RH 84%
Bar 1008.2mb-steady
Wind SSW at 8mph; Visibility >6miles (10km)
Ceiling 9000ft; Scattered Clouds at 2000ft

At this time that is the only reporting station, close to Beta, that I can find.


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Cycloneye11
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Re: San Andreas Island [Re: danielw]
      #63373 - Sun Oct 30 2005 06:26 AM

daniel there are now 7 majors in the 2005 season not 8=Dennis,Emily,Katrina,Maria,Rita,Wilma and now Beta.That was an error in the discussion where they mentioned 8.

Thanks, I didn't check double check their discussion~danielw

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 30 2005 06:41 AM)


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Ned
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Re: Beta: Category 2 *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Annie Oakley]
      #63374 - Sun Oct 30 2005 06:53 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(A PM to site officials would have been the better choice for this type of information)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 30 2005 08:53 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST [Re: Ned]
      #63375 - Sun Oct 30 2005 07:35 AM

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM... SOUTH OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS
ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
THIS POSITION IS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR LA BARRA.


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jeangfl
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Re: Thanks [Re: SEFL]
      #63376 - Sun Oct 30 2005 07:55 AM

Thanks to everyone for all of the useful information and support last week during Wilma. Our electricity and cable (internet) finally came on - family (Ft. Myers, Bonita Springs, Jensen Beach) is all safe. Thanks again everyone! You kept me from having a complete meltdown

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weatherwatcher999
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Loc: Southwestern Ontario, Canada.
Re: Thanks [Re: jeangfl]
      #63378 - Sun Oct 30 2005 08:34 AM

000
WTNT61 KNHC 301307
TCUAT1
HURRICANE BETA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HURRICANE BETA MADE LANDFALL NEAR LA
BARRA NICARAGUA AT ABOUT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 105
MPH...OR CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
Re: Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST [Re: danielw]
      #63379 - Sun Oct 30 2005 08:39 AM

Unusual for this year to see such a large error in the NHC landfall forecast. Beta is going it way south of yesterday's forecast. Looks like on this track the remnants will backdoor Managua instead of the more sparsely populated areas to the north. Not sure how much punch it will still be packing at that point though. Interesting on the IR how the tops warmed just before landfall.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Thanks [Re: weatherwatcher999]
      #63380 - Sun Oct 30 2005 08:44 AM

I hope this is not too off topic but is important to me. There is an invest up on NRL. On the tracking chart it has a red box shaped like a window. It appears hand drawn. Is this something that is important or an artifact that was an oops? It is on the 92L invest.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Thanks [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #63382 - Sun Oct 30 2005 08:55 AM

It indicates the area within which tropical cyclone formation could take place.
ED


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Thanks [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #63383 - Sun Oct 30 2005 09:01 AM

Solid hit on Nicaragua. Hope they fare well down there. Looks to be a bit WSW movement the last few frames.

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weatherwatcher999
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Southwestern Ontario, Canada.
Re: Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST [Re: bobbutts]
      #63385 - Sun Oct 30 2005 09:39 AM

Yeah, I agree on how the tops significantly warmed just prior to landfall. There were only oranges and yellows... but the sat. images overnight had it looking Wilma-esque.

I have a question. Is it a fairly rare event to have a trop. cyclone form between panama and nicaragua?? It kinda seems a little weird to have one form there.

By the way, 92L looks a lot more convective approaching the antilles. It seems to have reformed more to the west and it looks much better on floater 2.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Administrative Note [Re: weatherwatcher999]
      #63386 - Sun Oct 30 2005 09:53 AM

Just a reminder that a new Main Page article has been posted.

Also remember that on this site we do not attack the poster...and that one-line posts are usually deleted - See the Site Rules for additional clarification.
Thanks,
ED


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