NONAME
Weather Guru
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Wow 2 Invest form in one night and it is november look like has started in the Atlantic once again It look like 93L is going kuputt while 94L is flaring some nice convection and should be getting into a better enviorment for Devlopment It Might not be suprising if we have a Tropical cyclone in a couple of days mabye even Two Can I get some feedback on these thanks.
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
Edited by NONAME (Sat Nov 12 2005 10:21 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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94L is in the location has been showing something developing for a couple of days. This might be it.
Looks good for an early pre-TD system on IR - growing quickly. If it can maintain this rate, I wouldn't be surprised to see it classified as a TD tomorrow.
The track takes this system on is between WNW and W. Here are the other model runs: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_94.gif
Also, Floater 2 has been moved to 94L.
--RC
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HanKFranK
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naw man, floater 2 has been sitting there since that invest 92L was over there, back when beta was still active. that thing never developed, but two weeks later something has popped up to replace it.
i agree that it looks like it may well be classified soon. it looks to have a closed low at this point though cloud motions at night can be tricky, even on ir2. there's definitely a solid mass of convection present with the disturbance, so it looks like the developmental feedback mechanism is in place. that keeps up and it'll probably make it during the day sunday. close to the islands, so they might toss together a recon flight. more likely monday, though.
that's 94L. 93L is still just a broad mess near panama. a lot of convection has developed inland over columbia, and should wander out to sea into the broad low pressure in the region, while the upper air pattern has been consistently forecast to improve for this region. 94 looks to be leading the way right now, but i'd say that 93 has time on its side. both have had modest support from the models, but it's still a little surprising that one is already ramping up.
HF 0520z13november
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Isn't that nifty... 94L formed right under the floater. [Jaws music...] just when you thought it was safe to go have a nice Sat evng away from the computer. What a diff six hours makes. Well now we've got the tortoise and the hare bookending the Caribbean. Oughta be a fun week.
Why am I seeing a little bit of outflow to the west, or at least not so much evidence of the westerly shear on the west side, I wouldn't expect to see any at all with that much westerly shear.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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SSD gives a classification of 1.5 to 94L now, but sat shows convection dropping in the core (though growing on the fringes). It needs a bit of time for organization before hitting TD now...but I'd be surprised if it doesn't make TD within a day or two.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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94L is looking like its in some shear right now. The circulation center you can very clearly see is off to the north and west of the deep convection. But its not really outracing the entire circulation as there looks like evidence of some low level turning in the atmosphere. I guess it is wait and see now.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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GFDL Bring 94L up to a 4 in 114 hours looks like after tomorow it will start to devlop more and become a strong major hurrican going through the Central Carribean following a track like Emilys through it.
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
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Old Sailor
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The models have gone from nothing to Major Hurricane and back to nothing the last 2 days so wouldn't count on that model right now Number of the models that do something has 94L as a strong TS or Cat 1 system.
Dave
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Special Tropical Distrubance statement was issued. Looks like TD 27 will form tonight.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Has formed. Just...Wow.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Yes and the discussion was written by Stewart...don'tcha love to read his. They are so thorugh and explain everything in a simple clear way.
Well looks like Central America could be seeing a lot of rain again next weekend, and possibly even a major hurricane.
What's with the pic of TD22 on the LH side?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Hurricane Dad
Registered User
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Very Long time lurker - First post -
Margie,
I have noticed that when a new tropical system forms, the graphics do not update correctly for the first update. This is the case with sTD-22 listed on the top of the page. If you goto the NHC Site you will see the correct graphic.
Marc
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
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Hell has frozen over. How about a new topic?
Funny you should mention it, I was cooking one up just now. El topic nuevo. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Nov 13 2005 11:11 PM)
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