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Bay of Campeche area now up to 40% chacce for development over the next 5 days. Heavy rain in the area likely.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 226 (Zeta) , Major: 289 (Laura) Florida - Any: 975 (Michael) Major: 975 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #63603 - Mon Nov 14 2005 11:34 AM

It is way too early to get precise about the future of this system - or to even be certain that it has a future. The latest advisory from NHC keeps the cyclone on a general westerly track for the next 5 days and that appears to be a reasonable forecast. The average forward speed is projected at less than 200 miles per day - a very slow moving system. It would take at least a week (probably longer) before any impacts might be felt in South Florida - and there is a much greater probability that it will have no impact on the state.

The chances for impact on S. Florida in the next week or so is minimal. To put things in proper perspective, there is also a minimal probability that the system will never reach tropical storm strength and a minimal (although greater) probability that the system will encounter shear and fall apart. Remember , the average hurricane season sees a November storm every other year - so this is nothing all that unusual.

TD 27 is likely to become a tropical storm in the next day or two, and it is likely to move westward for the remainder of this week. It could eventually become a hurricane, but even the folks in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and the Yucatan have plenty of time to monitor this developing system. The only likely candidate for something that could turn the system more northward is a cold front that hasn't even reached the Pacific Northwest yet - and thats why any northward turn only has a minimal probability at the moment.

The models are still somewhat diverse on their various solutions, but thats not unusual with developing systems - and it is late into the season so not quite as much climo to work with. The GFS usually doesn't do too well with weak systems. The BAMM is okay with systems that remain in the tropics, and the UKMET has good years and bad years (this year it has had some wide variations from storm to storm in terms of accuracy).

This sure has been a remarkable (and long) season. If this should become 'Gamma', save some images for your grandchildren - it may be quite some time before we see a 'Gamma' again.
ED


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #63604 - Mon Nov 14 2005 12:29 PM

If I'm reading it right, the 12Z CMC doesn't have it developing, just sort of a large blob in 72 hours as it hits Central America, with a piece crossing to the Pacific.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63605 - Mon Nov 14 2005 12:36 PM

CMC takes it near the Cayman islands and then NE across Cuba thru the Bahamas....Although I dont like that model and I feel right now its way to fast with its exit of the carribean.....that outcome wouldnt surprise me by early next week.

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: scottsvb]
      #63606 - Mon Nov 14 2005 12:44 PM

I saw it running that way before, but right now I'm only getting 72 hours. I don't beleive this will happen, I think the ridge will stay strong and keep in going westish.

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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63607 - Mon Nov 14 2005 01:34 PM

Lee-Delray,

Not sure, but from what you posted, I think you're running the CMC model on the FSU site at Sea Level Pressure. Try changing the field to 850mb vorticity for a clearer picture. It has backed off, however, from previous runs. 12Z GFS still not doing much with 27. Don't know what's going to happen, but this season has been one for the ages. Here's hoping 27 doesn't cause a problem for anyone, anywhere.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
uk met pulls gamma north? [Re: scottsvb]
      #63609 - Mon Nov 14 2005 02:00 PM

Am I reading this right? Now not talking CMC but UK Met?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200527_model.html

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
UK Met accuracy [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #63610 - Mon Nov 14 2005 02:01 PM

Wasn't the UK Met pretty accurate with a few storms.. not on the money but on trends?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: uk met pulls gamma north? [Re: LoisCane]
      #63611 - Mon Nov 14 2005 02:03 PM

(post deleted - un-necessary response)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Nov 15 2005 11:23 PM)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: uk met pulls gamma north? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63614 - Mon Nov 14 2005 05:37 PM

I'm not saying this will happen, not predicting it, forcasting it, wishcasting it, but could you image if Gamma hit the US on Thanksgiving? It would forever be known as the Great Thanksgiving storm of 2005.

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HomesteadGirl
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 5
Loc: Homestead, Florida
Re: uk met pulls gamma north? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63616 - Mon Nov 14 2005 06:31 PM

Don't even think it. (Regarding the great Thanksgiving Hurricane)

Let's not forget that we will have the Nascar family in South Florida for the grand finale of the season. How nice that would be, party at the race one day and re-install shutters and restock all your hurricane food you already ate the next. Oh, could you imagine the traffic backup if visitor/non-resident evacuations are ordered early for the Keys during the same time as everyone leaving the area?

Oh, no, let's not even think about this one.


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: uk met pulls gamma north? [Re: HomesteadGirl]
      #63622 - Mon Nov 14 2005 07:26 PM

Yep. We've been whittling down the hurricane supplies like you. Down to 6 cans of chili (with beans), 2 cans of mystery meat AKA Spam, 3 cans of Chilean corned beef, 2 cans of tuna , 1 can of chicken, 5 cans of Progresso Minestrone soup, 1 six pack of Cheese and Crackers, 1/2 a jar of Skippy, 2 gallons of gas, and 9 jugs of Zephyr Hills water. At least we haven't touched the canned vegetables or the spare batteries. After Katrina, I ordered online a bunch of MRE full meal deals with heaters which have been and probably will be on backorder until the spring. Is it me or is it impossible to find anything that approaches comfort food for a hurricane supply kit? Anyway, sorry for rambling. Mods, since this post is off topic, feel free to send it to the happy hunting ground if you'd like.
(might be a great reminder to some!~danielw)

Edited by danielw (Mon Nov 14 2005 09:29 PM)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: uk met pulls gamma north? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: CoalCracker]
      #63627 - Mon Nov 14 2005 08:25 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: uk met pulls gamma north? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63629 - Mon Nov 14 2005 10:35 PM

Just a quick note - the Colorado spagetti plots are now up on 27 after about a month of them not updating:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

The 10pm discussion mentions decreasing shear. Looks like 27 held togeather during the shear environment and will come out of it intact. Wonder what the future will bring.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
take [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63630 - Mon Nov 14 2005 11:49 PM

td 27-- with the NHC on it's general evolution. once it gets going, like they've implied... it should intensify more than the official says. that track i put up last night of that 1932 storm... is sort of what i have in mind. if it doesn't get onshore in central america first, that is. i don't favor it being a very strong hurricane as it comes up, either... shear should start to light into it at fairly low latitude. so here's my general solution:
tue, wed, thu... head west, reach t.s. strength tue, hurricane wed, possibly strong hurricane thursday.
fri, sat... sit around, drift north near the honduras/nicaragua border.
sun, mon... start moving ne, weaken, cuba/bahamas, take off out into the atlantic.
something along those lines ought to commence. i really don't think the synoptic pattern will favor it getting to florida. none of the models are showing the kind of ridging in the atlantic or amplification needed to draw it up.
now, as for the other stuff: invest 93L got dropped as quick as it was assigned, but tonight that profile is pretty much back with a broad low centered roughly north of eastern panama. with 27 coming in from the east it should make development here impossible, but were 27 to be taken by shear i'd be very wary of this area as a potential system. if something does evolve it should get scarfed down by 27 shortly. if 27 gets hung up for whatever reason to the east, watch for it to assert itself more.
models are showing some interesting things in the extended period. while 27/gamma is stirring up in the caribbean, a piece of energy should cut off upstream along the old frontal boundary draped east of bermuda. this energy ought to bank southwest, and some models are showing enough of an upper signature on this deep layer feature for a very mild transition risk. with the strong jet north of the caribbean this is unlikely, unless the upper air flow becomes very much more confused than models are showing.
in about twelve days the GFS has been showing the past few runs a huge deep layer low in the east atlantic subtropics. by huge i mean it has a diameter on the order of 1200-1500 miles. they aren't showing much of a frontal structure, so if this feature persists in future runs, keep in mind that a subtropical system may be in the offing later in the month well out to sea.
okay, 'nuff of that.
HF 0449z15november


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SMOKE
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 33
Loc: USA, Ga.
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63631 - Tue Nov 15 2005 06:29 AM

Not impressed with the convection, doubtful a circulation will be found at 18Z.

--------------------




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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: SMOKE]
      #63632 - Tue Nov 15 2005 11:29 AM

Looking more like an open wave than a TD right now, though there could be a weak LLC just below the northern most ball of convection. Interesting to see what Recon finds out.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #63633 - Tue Nov 15 2005 12:10 PM

I don't know, it seems to be getting its act together IMO. Shear is beginning to weaken and convection is blooming. There's a lot of energy down there in the central/east Caribbean, and towards the weekend some of the models show a deepening trough heading toward the great lakes, and one getting going off the SE coast next week, then exploding in the mid Atlantic. This seems reminiscent of the Wilma pattern wherein the deep tropical moisture gets drawn toward the SE states, then up the coast towards the Maritimes next week. I wouldn't give up on TD #27 yet. Keep a watchful eye on her. It won't be a Wilma, but this could reach hurricane strength nonetheless. Stay tuned and Cheers!!

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Steve H1]
      #63634 - Tue Nov 15 2005 12:16 PM

Although the overall cloud signature is not impressive, the convection is now firing nearer the apparent LLCC. Judging by the low cloud lines on the most recent visible imagery, it seems that if there is an LLCC it is probably around 15N 68.5W, or just under the edge of the convective mass. This is a little different to a few hours ago when the nearest convection was well removed from the exposed centre.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Rich B]
      #63635 - Tue Nov 15 2005 01:04 PM

Yes the shear has definitely decreased, although it still appears to be about 10-15kts at this point. I still believe it's not going to successfully get convection wrapped around until overnight tonight at the earliest.

93L looking much more promising today.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Margie]
      #63637 - Tue Nov 15 2005 03:26 PM

93L is looking more and more like a depression, while TD27 seems to be rapidly dissipating. THis morning, i could easily detect a closed rotation, if not an exact center, but now i am having trouble finding any clouds at low levels moving west to east into the circulation

As for 93L, it appears to be much better organized than even this morning, and it seems to be a very well-defined closed circulation with a broad center somewhere north of Panama.

my forecast: 4pm is last advisory for TD27, and sometime midday tomorrow, 93L becomes TD28 and possibly Gamma by Wednesday morning


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