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Bay of Campeche area now up to 40% chacce for development over the next 5 days. Heavy rain in the area likely.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 226 (Zeta) , Major: 289 (Laura) Florida - Any: 975 (Michael) Major: 975 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Could get wet ina few days... [Re: Hugh]
      #63667 - Thu Nov 17 2005 08:02 AM

Looks like we could see some rain down the road.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

Looks like it could get it's act together.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Possible TD 28? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63668 - Thu Nov 17 2005 09:12 AM

hey guys,
i'm not convinced that 93L won't develop. sat imagery would indicate that the system remains largely offshore possibly with a centre near the Honduras / Nicaragua border. With some indications of a possible N or NE motion, and some model support, i think development into the 28th TC of the system still looks quite possible.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Possible TD 28? [Re: Rich B]
      #63669 - Thu Nov 17 2005 09:18 AM

I agree, Rich.
There will be a TD28.......soon.......and...........we will also see some cyclone activiity in December.


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Possible TD 28? [Re: ltpat228]
      #63670 - Thu Nov 17 2005 11:29 AM

The way this season is shaping up i am starting to wonder if the caribbean will ever cool down. Any Januaury storms on record? I know we've seem a few in December. I am willing to be that this is only the beginning. Next season will probably be worse; more storms, more severe and more after Nov 30th. Look at 2004 - bad season. Look at 2005 - really bad season. Look at 2006 - total chaos?

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
winds are the issue not the heat [Re: damejune2]
      #63671 - Thu Nov 17 2005 11:35 AM

No matter how hot it is down below the surface if the winds are strong at the surface they will blow any chance of out of season tropical storms away like bubbles a child is blowing into a strong wind...

The issue is not the heat but the air currents that make or break a storm.

You can't just turn up the heat.. you have to have the right conditions aloft.
So..keep watching the atmosphere. It is why we call it Atmospheric Science.. the other one is Oceanography.

Watching the Caribbean just now.. with one eye on the frontal boundaries.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: winds are the issue not the heat [Re: LoisCane]
      #63672 - Thu Nov 17 2005 12:51 PM

...Interesting subtropical low appears to be genesizing about 1000 naut miles NE of the Leewards this morning...

First, while nothing I say is intended to preclude the possibility that a tropical depression will form of the current disturbance in the central/West Caribbean (close to Hon), it would be increasingly difficult in about another day.5. Reason being, large scale changes over Eastern N/A (which have relative certainty for trends and related teleconnections), suggest a significant expression of the +PNA is about to occur - probably lasting some time if not the rest of the month into Decembers first weeks... Hurrah, if you are a winter enthusiast, but this may also subtend a tendency for stronger SW shear components, even as far S as where any would be tropical depression #25 (or is it 26?) would materialize.

My early take on this is that it may behave similar to what we just saw happen in the eastern Caribbean... A depression will likely form near the coast of Hon...but then have difficulty intensifying "much" beyond that ranking as the surrounding environment gradually takes on these suggested increasing hostilities...

Currently on IR, there are "popcorn" cumulonimbus situated near the core of a cold U/A low, about 1000 naut miles N of the Leewards. About 300 naut miles ENE of there, we see a very baroclinic looking feature involving the lower to mid lvl fields. Having wrapped dry air into the backside (confirmed by WV), while isentropic lift associated with NW pulled WCB is a smoking gun for a frontogenic process.... But, what it interesting about this is that it is actually situated over sub-tropical type SSTs, while the NAO is neutral, tending positive in time, in tandem with said +PNA contruct set to evolve over the next 36 hours.

This will be something to watch as it slowly (most likely) migrates to the W. The +NAO, albeit subtle and or uncertain as to how intense it will ultimately become, will likely not be a very big influencer here in these nearer terms; nevertheless, it will tend to intensify the easterly component to the N of the gyre in question, and also, perhaps instantiate less capability for any wayward attempt at creating westerly shear in that area, in general. That is interesting considering that we are in the time of the year where we have about equal chances for having the shear be present in that area; perhaps much of this is a nice homage to how strong the ensuing +PNA may become, as having a very strong ridge tendency near 50W, would be a nice coupled signature for a trough evolving over the eastern 1/3 of N/A.

What all this means is that it seems higher than the average "mere 20% chance" (if you will...) that a sub-tropical low will be generated; or at least, more thermodynamically sub-tropical than the current appeal. That is to say, warm core are the surface, cold core aloft. There after, the advent of said ridge-trough couplet between the Atlantic and the intracontinental areas of eastern N/A would tend to imply a westerly drift, into a region with still warmer SSTs.

It wouldn't be a prediction for a hurricane here - I couldn't responsibly make that claim (even if a transitioned result isn't "IM"possible). But, it is an interesting time in the models because there is a lot of contention between the UKMET and GFS camps ( as just an example ), arguing over the feasibility, placemenet...etc, of a non-atypical autumnal ECS. (Drat! probably too warm this first go...)... Neat to see an ECS however, when you also have (possibly) a sub-tropical low embedded SE, but ever closer to the l/w axis the produced the ECS. . Could the l/w axis eventually interact with such a sub-tropical system ? It's a wild idea that wouldn't show up to well in the models, and of course, since those types of interaction are rare (1991 took 300 years of American technology to finally observe one, so who am I kidding)...it is more likely that the two would transpire unperturbed by eithers presents. Still, gotta love the playing field.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Nov 17 2005 12:58 PM)


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: winds are the issue not the heat [Re: LoisCane]
      #63673 - Thu Nov 17 2005 01:44 PM

You misunderstood me. I know winds aloft have a lot to do with formation and not just SST's. I meant the caribbean cooling down as in all the activity. Let me put it this way; in sports when a player is on a streak, what do they say? He is hot! Thats what i mean about the caribbean; all the activity, man o man is the caribbean hot right now! Not hot as in the SST's. Just wanted to clarify. The cooling down i mentioned in my first post was pertaining to all the activity - not the water.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


Edited by damejune2 (Thu Nov 17 2005 01:49 PM)


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: winds are the issue not the heat [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63674 - Thu Nov 17 2005 01:48 PM

Typhoon - how about laymens terms, huh? What in the heck are you saying? Should the USA expect anymore tropical weather this season or are we in the clear till June??

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
Re: winds are the issue not the heat [Re: damejune2]
      #63675 - Thu Nov 17 2005 02:12 PM

Strange? Navymil were investigating 93L an hour ago. Now they appear to have merged it with the remnants of 27L and re-constituted 27L . Methinks that NHC might have it as a TD soon...

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: winds are the issue not the heat [Re: damejune2]
      #63676 - Thu Nov 17 2005 02:33 PM

Quote:

Typhoon - how about laymens terms, huh? What in the heck are you saying? Should the USA expect anymore tropical weather this season or are we in the clear till June??




Hi...
..You're never in the clear my friend... Some years, the odds are essentially 0 in January, other years....maybe not. But, you are never absolutely 0...

However, for the sake of discussion...I would say that we are going to have very slim chances of the U.S. being affected by a tropical cyclone again before the seasonal return, late next spring, while at the same time (and rather ironically) we will have above average chances of renogade systems developing after the planned December 1st termination date.

Positive departed SSTs working in conjunction with a very powerfully negative Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, means that conditions will be unusually fertile for the generation of tropical cyclones....(here's the catch!) at lower latitudes. The reason that is emphasized is because, not unlike every year, the planned winter time incursion of westerlies into the subtropical latitudes, to where they can subtend an influence to points farther S (in more intense scenarios..), is well underway; with one caveat: more intense than normal closer to the U.S. mainland. This latter intimation is because we have a Multi-Decadal Oscillation that favors severe winters underway - which is by no means an "always" scenario, but one that means we should be weary of any tendencies at all, to drive the +PNA along... This is because when the MDO is positive, there is a teleconnection to positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation..

Just so you are familiar with what these are:
North Atlantic Oscillation:
1) Positive Phase: +SD heights anywhere from N of Ireland to Davis Straights just W of Greenland, and associated +SD surface high pressure... This effectively blocks the cold from the polar Canadian districts from punching E into the N Atlantic, complimented by the fact that the jet stream in such conditions "buckles" in the "means" ("means" meaning, not all the time, but the average state of the main westerly core positioning) and sends these cold air masses, instead, S into the U.S. more frequently.
2) Negative Phase: -SD "........................." and associated -SD "............................", and the opposite means there after. This implies warm regimes for the contiguous U.S. if you are following me.
3) Neutral Phase: No discernable departure from tropospheric mass balance in the N. Atlantic Basin and adjacent areas; no discernable height bias either... Caries little influence either way on the weather in the contiguous and basically is a big boring waste of time.

Multi-Decadal Oscillation:
...About ever 20-30 years or so, the Atlantic Ocean decides to cool off and then heat back up again...by a 1 or 2C average across...pretty much the broad expanse of the ocean - of particularly current concern, N of the tropics/sub-tropics.. It's like our own ENSO in this hemisphere, but one that has a much longer periodicity, than that which takes place in the Equitorial Pacific. (Which by the way, since the ENSO signal is essentially neutral, we are not thinking a huge influence on the Pacific Jet, but that's a digression). Studies have shown that warm SSTs in various locations in the N Atlantic tends to correlate with the existence of blocking ridge tendencies, subsequently the positive phase of the NAO is accepted. If you look at the current SST charts along with the anomalies, you will see that the positive phase of the MDO is definitely present, having substantial warm departures from normal existing over the waters of the N Atlantic.

Since these indices/teleconnector existences, in the longer term, favor the positive phases of the NAO, it stands to reason there is a stronger than normal likelihood for higher amplitude flow. That is why the GFS going bonkers with a sub-polar vortex that looks like it belongs in that terrible movie "The Day After Tomorrow", over SE Canada. There is likely back-ground physics that are insisting a winter to remember over the continent of N America....

Point being, higher amplitude flows will tend to shunt activity away from the U.S. proper. That is what it means in your layman's terms, which really cut down the probability that a wayward tropical disturbance can find its way on board in a latter Novembers, particularly when you have amplified flow regimes Globally statistically supported to exist - therein we derive our confidences.

That doesn't mean it "can't" happen of course, and usually, that's when people die -s trangely enough... Also, it would seem reasonable to assume much of this has less ability to apply to S. Florida its self, which stick out there like a sore thumb at any time of the year.

Lastly, the reason this is interesting for the potential sub-tropical feature 1000 naut miles NNE of the Leewards is because if you understand the basics of atmospheric circulation, a high parked in the N Atlantic tends to drive a deep layer easterly flow, which tends to lower shear in that particular geography of the Atlantic... When you look at the IR imagery, you can see a near E Coast baroclinic zone lingering there...That is the shear axis...Anything E of there is "theoretically" in a favorable U/A arena...Anything along and W of that? Winter time and nadda...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Nov 17 2005 02:37 PM)


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Recon & Wilma [Re: dave foster]
      #63677 - Thu Nov 17 2005 02:43 PM

I'm interested to see if NHC classifies this now. It appears that recon has found a circulation center just off the coast of Nicaragua, which corresponds well to the appearance on visible satellite imagery. However, that center is somewhat removed from most of the convection. The westerly winds, at least from the reports I've seen, are fairly light but not insignificant. Here are recon reports 7-10:

7: 11.9/82.3 - wind 210 degrees, 19 kt at flight level; estimated sea level pressure 1007 mb
8: 12.9/83.1 - wind 190 degrees, 14 kt at flight level; estimated sea level pressure 1003 mb
9: 14.2/82.5 - wind 130 degrees, 24 kt at flight level; estimated sea level pressure 1005 mb
10: 15.1/82.6 - wind 100 degrees, 26 kt at flight level; estimated sea level pressure 1006 mb

And although this comment is very late, I toured a large part of southeast Florida - from Homestead to Boca - after Wilma, and my visual impression is that we got high-end cat 1 winds, with the possibility of low-end cat 2 in a few places. Yes, the hurricane was a cat 3, but I just don't see the evidence of winds higher than high-end cat 1/low-end cat 2. Tons of tree damage (e.g., I lost most of my landscaping); some structural damage, although mostly minor (e.g., shingles and an occasional window or roof whose damage was not caused by a falling tree or other flying object); lots of signs down. But lots of signs and trees still standing, and most houses with little or no structural damage.

As with most people, the worst thing for me was the lack of power: 2 weeks because of a snapped pole on my street. (A ficus tree fell into the pole and snapped it; the wind didn't snap it without help from the tree.)

Fingers crossed that the disturbance down there does not develop. I'm ready for this season to be over.


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Recon & Wilma [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #63678 - Thu Nov 17 2005 02:46 PM

Recon observation 11:

16.4/84.0: winds 40 degrees, 20 kt at flight level; estimated SLP 1007 mb


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Recon & Wilma [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #63679 - Thu Nov 17 2005 03:49 PM

NHC TPC has posted a special tropical disturbance statement to the effect that no TD has formed, either in 93L or in the remnants of TD27 (although they found near TS-force winds assoc w/those showers, but no closed surface circ).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 992
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Recon & Wilma [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #63680 - Thu Nov 17 2005 04:37 PM

Hi Brad:
I too saw what you did, but FPL lost 10,000 poles (twice the loss in Andrew) most of which were rated at 119mph...go figure...

Other posts on the Florida Power Pole topic were moved to the Hurricane Ask/ Tell thread~danielw

Edited by danielw (Thu Nov 17 2005 09:55 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 992
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Recon & Wilma [Re: Margie]
      #63681 - Thu Nov 17 2005 04:42 PM

The very most recent visible shows the LLC in the southern portion of this system has ducked on shore;
but that is not the whole story here the northern portion where the healthiest convection is is showing signs of a circulation (ole 27L).
I am not bullish on any thing other than a rain maker coming out of this.

--------------------
doug


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: doug]
      #63690 - Fri Nov 18 2005 12:17 AM

td 27 puffed out, but it's remnant area is stuck on the north coast of honduras right now... while the 93L low is chugging slowly nw into honduras towards the nw caribbean. deep convection is firing in the area... so all it should take is the low pressure zone to move offshore and get the feedback started. as is, the system is essentially a depression with a very elongated center. it'll be interesting if recon finds t.s. winds tomorrow if the center were to still be onshore. that's not much different than tammy was a month and a half ago, after moving inland into georgia but still having t.s. winds over the open water. guess we'll see how logically consistent the NHC wants to be.
there's that hybrid wannabe system up near 25/50... migrating more or less sw towards the caribbean. not much at the surface with it... maybe an elongated surface trough with some maxes on it. it's got a low-end chance of hybridizing over the next few days.
the big upper low that was being shown in the eastern atlantic during week 2 is less consistent on model runs now, but there are still features out there of interest. with the deep trough over the east, there should be enough amplitude in the pattern to favor anomalous ridging and lower than normal shear in places. strictly hybrid potential, though... SSTs out there are subpar for a typical tropical cyclone.
best chances at another system are with the mess around honduras, which is sitting on the fence for now.
HF 0517z18november


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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63691 - Fri Nov 18 2005 07:05 AM

Good Morning all,

Dr. Gray's 2005 Forecast Summary is out. Good reading. Get your coffee ready and settle down - it's a long one.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/nov2005/

methinks this will have to be updated.......

Edited by Hootowl (Fri Nov 18 2005 06:42 PM)


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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Hootowl]
      #63692 - Fri Nov 18 2005 08:13 AM

Looking at the floater loop it seems a LLC or MLC is located around 14n 85w. Heading in a NNW motion. Could be Gamma today if recon finds the low there. Can't beleive I'm posting this time of year. Will it ever end???

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saluki
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #63693 - Fri Nov 18 2005 09:19 AM

Just looked at the model tracks for this mess in the northwestern Caribbean, and they look dishearteningly similar to Wilma's track. Any thoughts/opinions on how strong this could be once it reaches Florida -- if it ever does? None of the reports I've seen locally indicate anything more than a potentially rainy weekend here.

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Mike
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
NHC STDS 11/18 090 [Re: saluki]
      #63694 - Fri Nov 18 2005 09:25 AM

Here is a NHC STDS as of 0900 today:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
900 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER
TODAY. IF ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COAST AND
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

EVEN IF NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.


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