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Bay of Campeche area now up to 40% chacce for development over the next 5 days. Heavy rain in the area likely.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 226 (Zeta) , Major: 289 (Laura) Florida - Any: 975 (Michael) Major: 975 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Special Tropical Disturbance Statement [Re: saluki]
      #63695 - Fri Nov 18 2005 09:26 AM

WONT41 KNHC 181400
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
900 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER
TODAY. IF ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COAST AND
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

EVEN IF NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER BEVEN



Let's see what recon finds when they get there early in the afternoon.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: saluki]
      #63696 - Fri Nov 18 2005 09:32 AM

Good morning. Looks like overnight the low (93L) moved offshore into the convection that is the remnants of TD27 and they've combined, and look awfully good. Wind shear is low and they're right under that anticyclone, and so I am guess we'll have a TD and then a TS shortly?

NRL still has them listed separately...93L image just a little south of what they're calling 27LNoname, but clearly it is the combination of the two, right, and not just reforming of TD27, because there is no weel-defined spin of the remnants of TD27 on its own?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #63697 - Fri Nov 18 2005 09:36 AM

00z GFDL is neatů at about 78 hours it is splits and makes another closed low entirely, with the parent system making landfall in western cuba as a hurricane. The latter energy crosses florida, ingests the other, and then bombs out to a 970mb> low around 40N!
This is basically an exercise in the allocation of energy I guess, which I am not sure to what proficiency the models handle. I cannot wait to see how all this pans out.

EDIT: Margie, as you know the politics of regeneration are always shaky at best. I think in this case they will just make up a new tropical cyclone however, if not go straight to Gamma.

EDIT II: ah, never mind. I just looked at the 06Z... which looks, uh, just like Wilma

Arrghhh... I crave information

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Fri Nov 18 2005 10:28 AM)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Lysis]
      #63698 - Fri Nov 18 2005 10:10 AM

I think the GFDL is being very aggressive, no other models show this. It has a Cat 3 off the coast by the end of the run. Isn't the water too cold for that?

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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63699 - Fri Nov 18 2005 10:52 AM

Yeah, here's a link to the GFDL: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

That does look like Wilma II, doesn't it?? Right now, the IR loop for the floater looks pretty impressive.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: lawgator]
      #63701 - Fri Nov 18 2005 11:00 AM

hmm.. lot of shear for that sort of scenario. some of the energy from the system may be drawn north into the noreaster type system that is forecast to develop off the east coast early next week. the GFDL is suggesting that 27/gamma IS the noreaster, and that it comes across lower florida as a hurricane on the way to being it. none of the other globals think this is a viable solution, and personally i don't see it happening given the environmental conditions along the way.
on the other hand, NHC is wiggling around about what is quite likely a tropical storm on the north coast of honduras. i guess it just has to hit it out of the park, because the plate calls are really not going its way. recon will be down there to put this issue to rest in a few hours.
HF 1600z18november


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jusforsean
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc: Broward County
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: lawgator]
      #63702 - Fri Nov 18 2005 11:01 AM

o.k. looking at the models i am NOT LIKING THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Amazing to me how we we depend on the models and they all have it coming right thru SFL but they could be wrong.... I suppose we wont know until it hits us in the head literally , can all of these models be wrong? Are they missing data that will start to surface and change the path? And doesnt the NHC use them for guidance and usually follow thier lead?
It seems that everyone has a different forecast, SFL, central florida, cuba/bahamas? Who knows> I am hearing this thing is like 4 days out is that right?? Arent the models pretty good as the 5 day forecast closes in? As for as I can gather we are dealing with possible Gamma coming from the west and now i hear of a possinle more south east of us? Trying to keep up>> Thanks


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63703 - Fri Nov 18 2005 11:06 AM

The 06Z GFDL is certainly, um, interesting with a 928mb hybrid system making landfall in Nova Scotia in 120 hours. I'll believe something like that when I see it. Anything that does develop certainly could end up getting baroclinically enhanced ahead of the next strong system diving into the SE.

It figures that there would be a system in the NW Caribbean now, the one window of opportunity in the upper-level pattern in at least the next week for a tropical system to possibly move as far north as Florida. If 27L did not get sling-shotted to the NW around 93L, there probably wouldn't be anything this far north to begin with. However, anything that develops still may end up moving south of the Florida peninsula, or else get hung up over the Yucutan, so no reason to be overly concerned in Florida yet.

Buoy 42056 has been reporting 1-minute sustained winds of around 30 knots, so this is definitely a T.D. and close to becoming Gamma if in fact they find a well-defined low pressure center down there.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: lawgator]
      #63704 - Fri Nov 18 2005 11:16 AM

Hard to belive that model isn't some sick April Fool's Day but I checked.. it's new. Sure seems like it needs to be reset or something.

Anytime you have a storm down there this time of year you have to worry.. anyone who doesn't is a fool and mamma didn't birth no fool.

Nice to say it will most likely go south of us but with fickle early season front's nothing is a give and there isn't a sure thing when it comes to tropical forecasting in late November.

Thanks... watching.. not sure whether to giggle, laugh or cry.. definitely surreal

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: LoisCane]
      #63706 - Fri Nov 18 2005 11:33 AM

With all the fronts moving south, i doubt any system will make it as far north as Florida. Northern Cuba, if it's lucky, but i highly doubt it. Even if it did i would have to say that it wouldn't be that strong. The shear alone would rip it pretty good and it would be moving at a pretty good clip to the NE. If anything actually does come towards the sunshine state, i'd say strong tropical storm. We have a frontal system headed this way Monday night - Tuesday morning and then another soon after that. That will make it difficult for any system to touch Florida, in my opinion.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Lysis]
      #63707 - Fri Nov 18 2005 11:58 AM

Ok, well the circulation is very well-defined and there is convection, and winds have been at or close to TS force for at least a day, so the key to whether it is a TD right now is, is there banding/org convection around the center? Looking at most recent 85ghz scans, yes, at 6am there is a band from about 90deg around the N and W down to aboug 225deg, at 8am similar, but still has not wrapped around, although a well-defined center, and it will need to tighten up. This is because the overall circ is partially over land, right? So with the level of org, and windspeeds, as soon as it moves out into the Carib a little more, and the convection wraps around, we'll have a TD, but since winds may be higher, I assume we'll jump right to Gamma? Possibly NHC TPC will wait until the results of the recon?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Margie]
      #63708 - Fri Nov 18 2005 12:18 PM

Interesting there's no 11:30 update from the NHC.

I stil the the GFDL is goofy on this one.


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63709 - Fri Nov 18 2005 12:28 PM

Quote:

Interesting there's no 11:30 update from the NHC.

I stil the the GFDL is goofy on this one.




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS JUST EAST OF ROATAN ISLAND. IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM
LATER TODAY. IF ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COAST
AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG WINDS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM...AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TPC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
BRANCH UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFAT2 AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT02
KNHC.

EVEN IF NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

--------------------
RJB


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63710 - Fri Nov 18 2005 12:30 PM

The black and white vis loop doesn't really give you much as far as depth-of-field. The RGB loop here is much more telling of the cyclone at multiple levels. The banding features, etc are even moreso evident:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T1/RGB_loop.html

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Fri Nov 18 2005 12:32 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Ron Basso]
      #63711 - Fri Nov 18 2005 12:47 PM

What is interesting to me is that it sounds like they are going to continue with nameTD27 instead of going to TD28, even though the convection didn't have any org circ until the low from 93L merged into it. Although I guess it is a moot point, because just as soon as circ wraps around it'll be Gamma.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Margie]
      #63712 - Fri Nov 18 2005 12:53 PM

Does anyone know what time Recon is due in the area??

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Fletch]
      #63713 - Fri Nov 18 2005 12:57 PM

2pm-ish I believe

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Fletch]
      #63714 - Fri Nov 18 2005 01:01 PM

Actually, recon is pretty much there now - at 17.0/84.6 as of 1251 pm - so we should get some interesting data back soon.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Margie]
      #63715 - Fri Nov 18 2005 02:08 PM

Buoy 42056 reported sustained winds to 35 knots (tropical storm force) a couple of hours ago, but unfortunately it looks like the wind sensor has gone haywire since then (it is currently reporting winds out of the east at 0 knots, with gusts to 0 knots). This will probably go straight to Gamma if it is classified.

Speaking of haywire, the 12Z GFDL continues to bring the system into south Florida in about 72-84 hours, at tropical storm intensity. The latest run dissipates the system right after 96 hours off the coast of the Carolinas, which is odd because it has the system at minimal hurricane strength at 96 hours.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63716 - Fri Nov 18 2005 02:29 PM

I think there is no doubt that something will cross Florida Monday evening, it's just a question of what. If I had to speculate, based on water temps & shear a TD or weak TS moving very quickly.

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