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Bay of Campeche area now being tracked as Invest 92L. 40% chance for development, likely to be a rain event, with most of it on the east.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 227 (Zeta) , Major: 290 (Laura) Florida - Any: 976 (Michael) Major: 976 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
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TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go
      #63578 - Sun Nov 13 2005 11:09 PM

The area of disturbed weather in the southeastern Caribbean sea has developed into a tropical cyclone, based on radar and surface reports from the Windward Islands.

Caribbean Weather Reports

The system is forecast to move generally westward, and the NHC is suggesting that it expects a hurricane later in the week. For the near term it is under considerable shear, though an anticyclone is forecast to develop aloft in the path of the system by midweek. There is always the chance that it will crash ahead into shear and rid us of tropical worries; that appears an unlikely scenario at this point. Next name on the list is Gamma.

Models are not terribly convergent on it's future, though the ones that have been correctly forecasting this system's development show a significant hurricane reaching the western Caribbean later in the week. Some of the dynamic models favor a track further south, near the coast of South America.

Storm 27 Model Plots

In the long range, the synoptic pattern would tend to favor one of three things--a speeding track into Central America, a sharp recurvature across Cuba, or a potential stall/meander scenario later in the week.
There are a couple of other areas of interest--they are real longshots. Modeling is showing the potential for low pressure further east of 27, though none show more than broad, weak lows. There is still low pressure near Panama in some model runs as well. This area is persisting even though convection became scarce there today. There is also a deep layer low forecast to dive southwest over the central Atlantic during the coming days. GFS shows way too much shear over it for any development, but it may have the profile distorted. It will penetrate into the tropics, if nothing else.
There don't appear to be any U.S. threats, but any system in the Caribbean is a worry for plenty of people. This is not a fish-storm scenario as some tend to call it, unless it acts really weird (check Marco in 1996 for a proxy Caribbean fish-storm).

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1996/MARCO/track.gif

The forecast track may end up resembling Joan of 1988, for those of you into climo-history.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1988/JOAN/track.gif

Or for an alternate scenario, try:

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1932/10/track.gif

It's late season, and only the real hurricane buffs are still around--so feel free to post away.
-HF

TD #27 (from Skeetobite)

Click for full size:

Animated Model Graphic Skeetobite
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of TD#27 - Static Image
cimss TD#27 Page


Edited by MikeC (Mon Nov 14 2005 07:19 AM)


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lunkerhunter
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63579 - Sun Nov 13 2005 11:25 PM

what would name be.....Gamma?

yep. shoulda mentioned that.... -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Nov 13 2005 11:27 PM)


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LoisCane
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63580 - Sun Nov 13 2005 11:39 PM

Not too many late November storms form in that area and I imagine we will have to look at other tracks for storms with similar weather patterns as exist at this time.

Pretty amazing... thanks for the data and discussion.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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CoalCracker
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63581 - Sun Nov 13 2005 11:47 PM

While I run up the white flag, let me be the first to cry "UNCLE!" I just finished removing all my storm panel tracks this past week so we could get some un-airconditioned fresh air into the house, and I also pulled out and tested the Christmas lights so I could begin decorating for the holidays. Ya, I know, it's highly unlikely for a hurricane to make a US landfall in November, but this has been a highly unlikely season. And I don't like the line from the latest NHC discussion, "IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN 72 HOURS." So tell me, o weather gurus, am I going to be putting up my Christmas decorations or my storm panels during Thanksgiving week? Is there any way to appease the weather gods? Am I going to be eating turkey or is my goose cooked?

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saluki
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63582 - Sun Nov 13 2005 11:53 PM

Looking WAY down the road, obviously, but ... what are the chances of this getting far enough to affect South Florida, and, if so, could it be strong enough this late in the year to be a real threat? It seems that this year has been active enough to never say never to any scenario.

I think my fellow South Florida posters will back me up when I say we are very storm-weary and storm-wary in this area as the post-Wilma hangover lingers. Here in Broward County, electricity wasn't fully restored until two days ago.


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danielwAdministrator
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Here we go...again [Re: saluki]
      #63583 - Mon Nov 14 2005 12:05 AM

Key West NWS, Afternoon AFD has mention of the "possibility" of tropical weather in the area for next weekend.
This is a must read for The Florida Keys residents and Southern Florida. Based on the wording and use of heavy words in the Discussion~danielw
FXUS62 KEYW 131914
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
215 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005...edited~danielw

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 20N.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WEST ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR THE GRENADINES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY
RELAX SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS
SYSTEM DOES INDEED DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE EARLIEST
IT COULD REACH THE KEYS` LONGITUDE WILL BE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
SITUATION. DUE TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED
WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...THE SAFE BET IS TO STICK WITH
AN EXTENDED FORECAST BASED UPON CLIMATOLOGY.
(bold emphasis added by danielw)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDEYW&version=1&max=51


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: saluki]
      #63584 - Mon Nov 14 2005 12:31 AM

Lets not get too excited about any South Florida possibilities yet. TD 27 has formed about 100 miles west of St. Vincent and it is currently moving to the west at 10mph. The Tropical Depression is expected to reach Tropical Storm strength in the next 24 to 36 hours, but moderate westerly shear to the immediate north should inhibit any rapid development for the next couple of days.

The wind shear is expected to decrease as the storm moves to the west or west northwest - but the westward movement should be rather slow. Once the system gets west of 70W, a more rapid intensification could take place...but the cyclone has to survive the next 48 hours first.

If the system moves slightly south of west, intensification could be a little quicker. If the system takes more of a jog to the northwest in the 24 to 48 hour timeframe, the westerly shear could tear it apart. Any threat to South Florida and the Keys is still at least 6 - perhaps 7 - days off. At the moment that threat is minimal, but just keep an eye on this one during the week.
ED


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Clark
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #63585 - Mon Nov 14 2005 01:23 AM

Gonna be another issue of timing with this one. There's a pretty sharp trough projected to hit the east coast in about 4 days -- still remains to be seen whether or not it'll be enough to capture what will probably end up being Gamma and turn it northward. I think it will at some point, but I agree that any US impact is still ~6 or so days away. Still a near-equal chance it keeps trucking westward and misses the trough, particularly if it moves slower than anticipated, or that it gets turned up and out to sea across Cuba & the Bahamas like one of those storms that HF posted. Got plenty of time to watch it, though.

Posted up a new blog about this one...probably resume the season-in-review stuff after this one's done. For those interested and that have noticed the lack of MM5 runs lately, we've restarted our realtime MM5 at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/ on a once-daily (00Z runs; all data available by 15z/10a ET) basis at 54km/18km/6km resolution for as long as TD 27/future(?) Gamma is out there.


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mojorox
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Clark]
      #63588 - Mon Nov 14 2005 02:30 AM

I just do not know what to say. This has been the season from hades.

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UKCloudgazer
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Clark]
      #63589 - Mon Nov 14 2005 03:56 AM

Thanks for MM5. Wondered what had happened to it. Stuck on October 24th on the set of 6 models. Will they update it?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Check the main MM5 website; probably will not update the files on the TCgengifs page for now. --Clark

I noticed that UKmet was predicting quite intense, where they normally seem rather conservative compared to others.

By the way, is the low pressure system several models feature off Portugal in about 6 days the central Atlantic low that HF mentioned? Much cooler water up there.

Edited by Clark (Mon Nov 14 2005 02:18 PM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: UKCloudgazer]
      #63592 - Mon Nov 14 2005 07:36 AM

The shear is very visible on IR, but it's still maintaining very deep convection reguardless of the shear. I wonder how development will go?

Interesting what GFDL is doing - bringing this system to a major hurricane in about 3.5-4 days. Note that the NHC mentions that the GFDL tends to overdevelop systems in shear...and recall that the GFDL is also known for a lot of oscilation in the forcast intensity before the system defines itself well.


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damejune2
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63593 - Mon Nov 14 2005 09:09 AM

This is crazy. We are ten days away from Thanksgiving and yet we have to worry about a hurricane hitting florida. Nobody has said it would hit here, but i read that it shouldn't be a threat to S. Fla or the Keys for another 6 or 7 days. That's comforting. I am starting to think that this season will never end. The water is cooler and upper winds have changed, but we are still dealing with storms. I am losing my patience and nerve! What are the serious chances of this storm effecting Florida in the next 2 weeks? Answer this post or feel free to PM me. Thank you!

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Lee-Delray
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: damejune2]
      #63594 - Mon Nov 14 2005 09:19 AM

All the models show something different. I read it shouldn't be a threat at all in the Sun Sentinel, but would agree it's too early to tell. I think the only thing in our favor this time if it does come this way it will cross cooler waters and Cuba first.

I was thinking after I saw this that I would have to take down some loose roof tiles so I don't loose anymore.


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Lee-Delray
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63595 - Mon Nov 14 2005 09:24 AM

Is it me, or is the GFS not strengthening this at all?

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damejune2
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63596 - Mon Nov 14 2005 09:32 AM

Anyone look at the Canadian model lately? The model has the future Gamma going West and then NW and then near Cuba it makes a big right turn. After that it goes south of the Keys and through the Fla straits and into the Northern Bahamas. All other models have this storm not doing anything or heading into Central America. GFDL has it at 107kts just off the Central American coast - i think it's Nic or Honduras.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Lee-Delray
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: damejune2]
      #63597 - Mon Nov 14 2005 09:38 AM

I know I'll catch flack for this, but I don't think the CMC is right very often, especially for depressions. I was always told that the GFDL & GFS are more relaible. I also thought and correct me if I'm wrong that BAMM is the most accurate for depressions. All of those seem to have no development or an arrival in Central America.

Let's pray it dies out.


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Ron Basso
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63598 - Mon Nov 14 2005 10:10 AM

Looks like the 06Z GFDL and the 00Z CMC (along with the UKMET) have the storm track about right. A large ridge will keep the system moving W or W-NW the next 4-5 days. After that things could get real interesting. A strong trough is forecast now to be re-enforcing and sharpening the east coast long-wave trough on Sunday. Both the CMC & UKMET pick up on this & turn the storm N-NE and then NE somewhere south of Cuba. As always, it will be a question of timing. While the CMC has a penchant for over-developing hurricanes - it is not out of the realm of possiblity for a major hurricane to form south of Cuba and roar across Cuba N-NE into S FL or the Bahamas. Everyone in peninsula FL needs to keep a close eye on this soon to be Gamma. The odds strongly favor re-curvature - just a matter of how far west and north Gamma gets prior to this happening. I don't buy the central america track unless this thing really rides south of its projected path the next 4-5 days. I would not entirely rule out a Wilma track, tropical storm Keith (1988) or Hurricane Kate track (1985), although the odds of this storm hitting the panhandle I think are extremely low.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

--------------------
RJB


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lawgator
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: UKCloudgazer]
      #63599 - Mon Nov 14 2005 10:14 AM

Quote:

Thanks for MM5. Wondered what had happened to it. Stuck on October 24th on the set of 6 models. Will they update it?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/





I noticed that, too.

As to potential T.S. Gamma, obviously not much concensus in the models at this point, either as to track or development. Whatever happened to to the good old days when the late-season Carribean or even Southern GOM storms would get sucked into a diving cold front and peel out to sea at 40 m.p.h. with all convection torn from the center?


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lawgator
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: lawgator]
      #63600 - Mon Nov 14 2005 11:03 AM

Gamma soon.....
From the NHC

WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE
EAST OF THE SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
THE CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER DEEP AND PERSISTENT... AND IT
APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A CURVED BAND THAT COULD
SOON WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE CYCLONE APPEARS CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM... AS SUGGESTED BY Dvorak INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT... BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED
AT 30 KT TO WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN.


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Margie
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: lawgator]
      #63601 - Mon Nov 14 2005 11:19 AM

Quote:

Gamma soon.....From the NHC

IT APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A CURVED BAND THAT COULD SOON WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE CYCLONE APPEARS CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...


Now I believe that is overly optimistic. The shear looks to be above 20kts; I don't see the circ wrapping around even if is clearly banding.

However I do like the way this was put later in the discussion, and agree with this assessment:

IF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SNEAK TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES AND BECOMES SITUATED BENEATH THE ANTICYCLONE... IT COULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN.

I think that is definitely the key...providing that favorable outflow.

And this as well:

OCEAN TEMPERATURES DO NOT PROVIDE ANY LIMITING FACTOR... SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST HINGES LARGELY ON HOW SHEAR IMPACTS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...ESPECIALLY IF THE CYCLONE ENDS UP DIRECTLY BENEATH THE ANTICYCLONE.

I am not so sold on recurvature later in the week.

* * * * * * * *

Also...anyone looked at the floaters? What's so interesting about NJ?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #63603 - Mon Nov 14 2005 11:34 AM

It is way too early to get precise about the future of this system - or to even be certain that it has a future. The latest advisory from NHC keeps the cyclone on a general westerly track for the next 5 days and that appears to be a reasonable forecast. The average forward speed is projected at less than 200 miles per day - a very slow moving system. It would take at least a week (probably longer) before any impacts might be felt in South Florida - and there is a much greater probability that it will have no impact on the state.

The chances for impact on S. Florida in the next week or so is minimal. To put things in proper perspective, there is also a minimal probability that the system will never reach tropical storm strength and a minimal (although greater) probability that the system will encounter shear and fall apart. Remember , the average hurricane season sees a November storm every other year - so this is nothing all that unusual.

TD 27 is likely to become a tropical storm in the next day or two, and it is likely to move westward for the remainder of this week. It could eventually become a hurricane, but even the folks in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and the Yucatan have plenty of time to monitor this developing system. The only likely candidate for something that could turn the system more northward is a cold front that hasn't even reached the Pacific Northwest yet - and thats why any northward turn only has a minimal probability at the moment.

The models are still somewhat diverse on their various solutions, but thats not unusual with developing systems - and it is late into the season so not quite as much climo to work with. The GFS usually doesn't do too well with weak systems. The BAMM is okay with systems that remain in the tropics, and the UKMET has good years and bad years (this year it has had some wide variations from storm to storm in terms of accuracy).

This sure has been a remarkable (and long) season. If this should become 'Gamma', save some images for your grandchildren - it may be quite some time before we see a 'Gamma' again.
ED


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Lee-Delray
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #63604 - Mon Nov 14 2005 12:29 PM

If I'm reading it right, the 12Z CMC doesn't have it developing, just sort of a large blob in 72 hours as it hits Central America, with a piece crossing to the Pacific.

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scottsvb
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63605 - Mon Nov 14 2005 12:36 PM

CMC takes it near the Cayman islands and then NE across Cuba thru the Bahamas....Although I dont like that model and I feel right now its way to fast with its exit of the carribean.....that outcome wouldnt surprise me by early next week.

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Lee-Delray
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: scottsvb]
      #63606 - Mon Nov 14 2005 12:44 PM

I saw it running that way before, but right now I'm only getting 72 hours. I don't beleive this will happen, I think the ridge will stay strong and keep in going westish.

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CoalCracker
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63607 - Mon Nov 14 2005 01:34 PM

Lee-Delray,

Not sure, but from what you posted, I think you're running the CMC model on the FSU site at Sea Level Pressure. Try changing the field to 850mb vorticity for a clearer picture. It has backed off, however, from previous runs. 12Z GFS still not doing much with 27. Don't know what's going to happen, but this season has been one for the ages. Here's hoping 27 doesn't cause a problem for anyone, anywhere.


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LoisCane
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uk met pulls gamma north? [Re: scottsvb]
      #63609 - Mon Nov 14 2005 02:00 PM

Am I reading this right? Now not talking CMC but UK Met?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200527_model.html

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LoisCane
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UK Met accuracy [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #63610 - Mon Nov 14 2005 02:01 PM

Wasn't the UK Met pretty accurate with a few storms.. not on the money but on trends?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Lee-Delray
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Re: uk met pulls gamma north? [Re: LoisCane]
      #63611 - Mon Nov 14 2005 02:03 PM

(post deleted - un-necessary response)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Nov 15 2005 11:23 PM)


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Lee-Delray
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Re: uk met pulls gamma north? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63614 - Mon Nov 14 2005 05:37 PM

I'm not saying this will happen, not predicting it, forcasting it, wishcasting it, but could you image if Gamma hit the US on Thanksgiving? It would forever be known as the Great Thanksgiving storm of 2005.

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HomesteadGirl
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Re: uk met pulls gamma north? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63616 - Mon Nov 14 2005 06:31 PM

Don't even think it. (Regarding the great Thanksgiving Hurricane)

Let's not forget that we will have the Nascar family in South Florida for the grand finale of the season. How nice that would be, party at the race one day and re-install shutters and restock all your hurricane food you already ate the next. Oh, could you imagine the traffic backup if visitor/non-resident evacuations are ordered early for the Keys during the same time as everyone leaving the area?

Oh, no, let's not even think about this one.


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CoalCracker
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Re: uk met pulls gamma north? [Re: HomesteadGirl]
      #63622 - Mon Nov 14 2005 07:26 PM

Yep. We've been whittling down the hurricane supplies like you. Down to 6 cans of chili (with beans), 2 cans of mystery meat AKA Spam, 3 cans of Chilean corned beef, 2 cans of tuna , 1 can of chicken, 5 cans of Progresso Minestrone soup, 1 six pack of Cheese and Crackers, 1/2 a jar of Skippy, 2 gallons of gas, and 9 jugs of Zephyr Hills water. At least we haven't touched the canned vegetables or the spare batteries. After Katrina, I ordered online a bunch of MRE full meal deals with heaters which have been and probably will be on backorder until the spring. Is it me or is it impossible to find anything that approaches comfort food for a hurricane supply kit? Anyway, sorry for rambling. Mods, since this post is off topic, feel free to send it to the happy hunting ground if you'd like.
(might be a great reminder to some!~danielw)

Edited by danielw (Mon Nov 14 2005 09:29 PM)


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Lee-Delray
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Re: uk met pulls gamma north? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: CoalCracker]
      #63627 - Mon Nov 14 2005 08:25 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Random Chaos
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Re: uk met pulls gamma north? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63629 - Mon Nov 14 2005 10:35 PM

Just a quick note - the Colorado spagetti plots are now up on 27 after about a month of them not updating:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

The 10pm discussion mentions decreasing shear. Looks like 27 held togeather during the shear environment and will come out of it intact. Wonder what the future will bring.


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HanKFranK
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take [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63630 - Mon Nov 14 2005 11:49 PM

td 27-- with the NHC on it's general evolution. once it gets going, like they've implied... it should intensify more than the official says. that track i put up last night of that 1932 storm... is sort of what i have in mind. if it doesn't get onshore in central america first, that is. i don't favor it being a very strong hurricane as it comes up, either... shear should start to light into it at fairly low latitude. so here's my general solution:
tue, wed, thu... head west, reach t.s. strength tue, hurricane wed, possibly strong hurricane thursday.
fri, sat... sit around, drift north near the honduras/nicaragua border.
sun, mon... start moving ne, weaken, cuba/bahamas, take off out into the atlantic.
something along those lines ought to commence. i really don't think the synoptic pattern will favor it getting to florida. none of the models are showing the kind of ridging in the atlantic or amplification needed to draw it up.
now, as for the other stuff: invest 93L got dropped as quick as it was assigned, but tonight that profile is pretty much back with a broad low centered roughly north of eastern panama. with 27 coming in from the east it should make development here impossible, but were 27 to be taken by shear i'd be very wary of this area as a potential system. if something does evolve it should get scarfed down by 27 shortly. if 27 gets hung up for whatever reason to the east, watch for it to assert itself more.
models are showing some interesting things in the extended period. while 27/gamma is stirring up in the caribbean, a piece of energy should cut off upstream along the old frontal boundary draped east of bermuda. this energy ought to bank southwest, and some models are showing enough of an upper signature on this deep layer feature for a very mild transition risk. with the strong jet north of the caribbean this is unlikely, unless the upper air flow becomes very much more confused than models are showing.
in about twelve days the GFS has been showing the past few runs a huge deep layer low in the east atlantic subtropics. by huge i mean it has a diameter on the order of 1200-1500 miles. they aren't showing much of a frontal structure, so if this feature persists in future runs, keep in mind that a subtropical system may be in the offing later in the month well out to sea.
okay, 'nuff of that.
HF 0449z15november


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SMOKE
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63631 - Tue Nov 15 2005 06:29 AM

Not impressed with the convection, doubtful a circulation will be found at 18Z.

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Tropics Guy
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: SMOKE]
      #63632 - Tue Nov 15 2005 11:29 AM

Looking more like an open wave than a TD right now, though there could be a weak LLC just below the northern most ball of convection. Interesting to see what Recon finds out.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Steve H1
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #63633 - Tue Nov 15 2005 12:10 PM

I don't know, it seems to be getting its act together IMO. Shear is beginning to weaken and convection is blooming. There's a lot of energy down there in the central/east Caribbean, and towards the weekend some of the models show a deepening trough heading toward the great lakes, and one getting going off the SE coast next week, then exploding in the mid Atlantic. This seems reminiscent of the Wilma pattern wherein the deep tropical moisture gets drawn toward the SE states, then up the coast towards the Maritimes next week. I wouldn't give up on TD #27 yet. Keep a watchful eye on her. It won't be a Wilma, but this could reach hurricane strength nonetheless. Stay tuned and Cheers!!

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Rich B
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Steve H1]
      #63634 - Tue Nov 15 2005 12:16 PM

Although the overall cloud signature is not impressive, the convection is now firing nearer the apparent LLCC. Judging by the low cloud lines on the most recent visible imagery, it seems that if there is an LLCC it is probably around 15N 68.5W, or just under the edge of the convective mass. This is a little different to a few hours ago when the nearest convection was well removed from the exposed centre.

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Margie
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Rich B]
      #63635 - Tue Nov 15 2005 01:04 PM

Yes the shear has definitely decreased, although it still appears to be about 10-15kts at this point. I still believe it's not going to successfully get convection wrapped around until overnight tonight at the earliest.

93L looking much more promising today.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Rabbit
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Margie]
      #63637 - Tue Nov 15 2005 03:26 PM

93L is looking more and more like a depression, while TD27 seems to be rapidly dissipating. THis morning, i could easily detect a closed rotation, if not an exact center, but now i am having trouble finding any clouds at low levels moving west to east into the circulation

As for 93L, it appears to be much better organized than even this morning, and it seems to be a very well-defined closed circulation with a broad center somewhere north of Panama.

my forecast: 4pm is last advisory for TD27, and sometime midday tomorrow, 93L becomes TD28 and possibly Gamma by Wednesday morning


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damejune2
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Rabbit]
      #63638 - Tue Nov 15 2005 04:25 PM

I'm thinking 93L is too close to land and the other system to develop and TD27 will most likely survive the shear; and why? History. All season long these storms have done some weird things. Look at it - a storm hit Portugal, we are in the greek alphabet, we had some major storms hit all over the gulf coast and caribbean. I'd say history is going to be on TD27's side and it's going to survive the shear and probably max out as a cat 2 or 3 by next week some where near Cuba. The front coming through later this week will turn the system more N then NE, after which it will most likely weaken due to shear, lower water temps and the collision with the front. Just my take on it.

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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Lee-Delray
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: damejune2]
      #63639 - Tue Nov 15 2005 04:40 PM

How do you get a cat 2 or 3 over Cuba? Everything I see and read said maybe a cat 1 then possibly turn N and/or NE and peter out . I do agree over Cuba and Bahamas but maybe as a tropical storm (if that) moving very, very quickly.

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Lysis
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63640 - Tue Nov 15 2005 05:21 PM

How do you get a cat 2 or 3 over Cuba?

I think he is referencing the GFDL which has been very ‘bullish’, as they say. Physically speaking, the water is plenty warm, and once the ridge builds over it really has no reason not to deepen. Of course, the system looks really crappy right now, so we shall see. I really hope they don't issue the last advisory, only to have to re-issue it or make up a new cyclone alltogether.

Among other scenarios, climatology favors a sharply recurving storm passing through cuba (although above mentioned model tangles it up into central america). Granted “near Cuba” is a bit of a shoe in, as the Northwest Caribbean isn’t that large to begin with. I like Hank’s 1932 analogue, although it would be neat to see it get into the gulf.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Tue Nov 15 2005 05:24 PM)


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Lee-Delray
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Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go [Re: Lysis]
      #63641 - Tue Nov 15 2005 05:31 PM

If it goes into the Gulf, doesn't that put a bullseye on your back?

I think if it goes NE and crosses Cuba, the westerlies will rip it apart. There is still a good chance it will interact with Central America before it turns, which I would think weaken it some more. Also, if it follows a frontal boundry it will be "smokin".

Edited by Lee-Delray (Tue Nov 15 2005 05:37 PM)


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HanKFranK
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things going crazy [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63642 - Tue Nov 15 2005 06:56 PM

okay, looks like i'm going to get my sw caribbean feature. and 27 shouldn't be able to stop it, which i was wrong about the other day. it's becoming too well-defined. no Dvorak classification on it but i'd guess it's a 1.5. you can SEE the low cloud motions swirling around it's broad center.. the little feature that cycloidally looped off the nw colombia coast the other day appears to be what this thing is focusing around. appears to be moving slowly... as all that anticyclonic ridging aloft evacuates thunderstorms and causes pressures to fall dynamically.. it should tighten up and become a classified system tomorrow. as it becomes a defined system it should begin to move westward... and end up moving ashore in nicaragua later on thursday i'm guessing. it's very broad, so it might still be acting up on the pacific side.
to the east TD 27 is getting under progressively less shear. its proximity to the developing system to the west should make continued development slow. the recon mission today found 41kt flight level winds, which usually equates to a tropical storm.. but they've gone on the side of conservatism. center is poorly defined, partially due to its speed. the strong easterly flow to the north is pushing it right along, but even so shear is decreasing and the center seems to be clinging to and refiring convection to the east. ssd has rated it a 2.5 tropical storm for three consecutive cycles... collectively the evidence for upgrading it seems to be there. the convective signature should become much clearer some time overnight, even though the NHC advisories have mentioned it 'needing to survive the next 24 hours shear' in every one of the recent advisories. the upper cloud motions and rate of shear reduction suggest to me that it'll fnally get through pretty soon, as well as the GFS termination of the westerly 200mb vectors just beyond its location. another recon should be in tonight, so we'll know one way or another. as it goes further west it should still develop more or less along the lines of the earlier idea... perhaps a little less so, due to competition with the other system. the other system should cross central america, however, while 27 should get hung up by height falls to the nw, giving it an eventually different fate. the global consensus in the long term turns it ne after a stall, kinda like what i was thinking... only the tracks have now shifted further south, closer to eastern cuba. looks about right.
in the middle to long term, other things are showing up. the deep layer system forecast to dig in northeast of the caribbean has a non-development profile in the models, but only a little change and the potential exists for a drill-down. around ten days out, with a deep trough in the east, a block near greenland, and a corresponding deep layer system in the eastern atlantic from the strong nao-negative configuration... whatever is cut off over there may also make a run at hybrid development. the shear profiles from the extremely amplified pattern could potentially support such an outcome.
i'll throw in that the current severe weather tonight appears to be right on with bastardi's forecast step-down to cold pattern. the models are showing more cold air and a deep trough in the east next week...as a matter of fact the euro and GFS are showing systems that could produce winter weather around thanksgiving in parts of the southeast. needless to say i'm interested. the models haven't converged yet on particular shortwave features, but the basic pattern setup appears to be coming together. climatological fall is going out with a bang around here, looks like. something has to balance all that activity in the tropics.
HF 2355z15november

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Nov 15 2005 09:12 PM)


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ltpat228
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Re: things going crazy [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63643 - Tue Nov 15 2005 08:08 PM

HankFrank?

Could you spit out what you last wrote in layman's terms?
I.E...we got another Wilma here?

there's a lot going on for november. earlier posts i talked about the threat to the u.s.... i don't see it. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Nov 15 2005 09:09 PM)


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Lee-Delray
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Re: things going crazy [Re: ltpat228]
      #63644 - Tue Nov 15 2005 08:25 PM

I think what he is saying that if and when Gamma forms and if and when it goes NE it will do so further south than Wilma over eastern Cuba then out to sea.

Sorry if I'm wrong Hank


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HanKFranK
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Re: things going crazy [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63645 - Tue Nov 15 2005 09:30 PM

checked the thermal and shortwave IR. TD 27 is starting to really lose definition. there's still a band on the southern side, but the easterly jet to the north seems to have elongated and unwound the circulation. won't know for sure until recon gets there, but it probably isn't closed. folks calling for 27 to bite the dust may get their call right, if a little late. with the developing system to the west it'll be tough for the vorticity associated with 27 to redevelop a closed surface low if it's competing like that. too fast a flow at the low levels can be worse than too fast a flow aloft.
HF 0230z16november


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Toto
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Re: things going crazy [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63646 - Tue Nov 15 2005 10:39 PM

Hey all-

I'm in the Cayman Islands, and was wondering what the models are saying about a possible northward turn around sunday- i know it's still quite early, but anything I might be concerned over? cheers!


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HanKFranK
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Re: things going crazy [Re: Toto]
      #63650 - Wed Nov 16 2005 01:47 AM

dunno quite what you're gonna be dealing with. it looks like a system is forming east of nicaragua and heading that way. appears to be an early CDO type cluster developing near its center at this hour.
east of there TD 27's center is apparent now maybe 2 degrees ahead of its convective cluster. thing is, the mid level vortmax seems to be trailing and a new low may be forming south of there, closer to the venezuelan coast. i'm not sure quite how this will evolve. it may be a goner or it may be pulling a fast one.
personally i'd bet that any storms that develop will stay east of your position. only CMC has it coming that far north/west. the rest are mostly more towards jamaica, with the caymans being on the far fringe.

more of the globals are showing those subtropical features, though not in great agreement. a couple have yet another feature that moves north from the vicinity of 15/45. seems too busy, it being november and all.
HF 0648z16november


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danielwAdministrator
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TD27 demise?? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63651 - Wed Nov 16 2005 05:39 AM

From the 4AM EST Discussion.
NHC is semi-convinced that TD27 has dissipated. They are waiting on Visible Satellite Imagery to confirm the dissipation.
Hank is on to the situation. NHC is commenting that TD27's demise is probably due to the Low forming in the SW Caribbean.

~The following, are my observations
The newer Low, just off the Costa Rican and Nicaraguan Coast, appears to be attempting a spin up.
However, TD27 is maintaining deep convection near the center. And should bring heavy rain to the ABC Island chain.
See the static sat pic below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/WATL/AVN.jpg
and the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/WATL/AVN_loop.html

NHC Discussion link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/160830.shtml


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Thunderbird12
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Re: TD27 demise?? [Re: danielw]
      #63652 - Wed Nov 16 2005 10:01 AM

TD27 is officially a goner per the 10AM advisory. 93L looks like the main player now. The GFDL takes 93L into Honduras in about 84 hours, then tries to take it back north into the NW Caribbean. It does not indicate a great deal of intensification, though.

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Steve H1
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Re: TD27 demise?? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63653 - Wed Nov 16 2005 10:14 AM

And they may have done this prematurely. Pay attention to the area of deepening convection a couple of hundred miles to the south of the western tip of Haiti. This is probably the remnant of 27, which could still re-develop, or get pulled into 93L, combining into a tropical cyclone. Lots of potential down there right now, and it wouldn't surprise me if one more hurricane evolves out of this mess. Contrary to some opinions out there, Upper level conditions are getting favorable in the western Caribbean, and this should continue into the weekend as the cold front pushes into the Atlantic off the New England coast. Cheers!!

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HanKFranK
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recon timetable [Re: Steve H1]
      #63654 - Wed Nov 16 2005 10:30 AM

i'm not sure what NHC is doing for recon today, but if they canceled it and didn't just redirect it to the sw caribbean feature i'm not so sure they'll be reconning anything. 93L is already moving (it seems to have already developed and is responding to the deep layer flow), and will be onshore nicaragua some time tonight.
it looks sort of like this: 93L is essentially a depression. it's broad and in it's formative stages, and has a t-rating of 1.0... so NHC is interpreting this to mean that it isn't a depression yet. i don't find it inconceivable that it has the usual depression conditons associated with it... with the strong low level flow to the north the winds should easily be reaching 25-30kt, with a central pressure near 1006-1007mb. but, no CDO, so no depression for now. maybe the SFC obs aren't showing as much as satellite is.
td 27's runaway center is on the fringe of its envelope, probably going to be absorbed. it actually looks better this morning than it did overnight, but is unlikely to stage a comeback sitting on the edge of a developing system. if it can remain coherent and over water, the feature to the south may hand off territorial rights once it gets onshore.. because the upper pattern over former 27 is now very good.
near the abc islands 27's old mid-level low sort of dragged back, and has left a wind-shift line at the surface and some associated vorticity. the shear down there isn't oppressive, so not impossible that another low won't form over there. don't think it terribly likely, though.
nothing new on the other model-envisioned subtropical type features out in the atlantic. it'll be a few days before they start to pop up, in whatever form they're going to take.
HF 1530z16november


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Steve H1
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Re: recon timetable [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63656 - Wed Nov 16 2005 12:37 PM

Looking at the 12Z Canadien, things get real interesting over the weekend and into next week for the east coast of the US. The CMC and the European model show development of the western Caribbean low, and take it north of Honduras then NE crossing central Cuba and staying just offshore Miami as a hurricane. They bring it up as a phasing system near the mid-Atlantic and it bombs out off the southern New England coast Next Tuesday to 974mb. It will be interesting to see the 12Z Euro today, since the 0Z backed a bit to the west near the Florida east coast. The models are sniffing something bigtime out, and I believe the 12Z GFS hasn't quite caught on yet, but it shows a closed low north of Honduras as well. The NAM hasn't a clue yet, but that's not unusual. This should be last call on the 2005 hurricane season. Thank God! Cheers!!

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ltpat228
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Re: recon timetable [Re: Steve H1]
      #63657 - Wed Nov 16 2005 05:56 PM

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Loa...mp;prodnav=none

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HanKFranK
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alrighty then [Re: ltpat228]
      #63663 - Thu Nov 17 2005 12:43 AM

this was a tough forecast and so far i haven't made good of it. 93L is moving onshore. no recon was sent today so we'll probably never know if it was a tropical cyclone. on the other hand there is a chance that the vorticity from former TD 27 that looped into this thing will get to the north shore of honduras, and that low pressure will recenter itself further north over water. some model suggestion of this, and their does seem to be an elongated axis to the overall turning... but just as good a chance that the whole mess will now camp over nicaragua/honduras just inland and rain itself out. some of this energy may be entrained into the coastal storm forecast to bomb off the east coast next week.
the first hybrid system is kicking, diving sw to the se of bermuda. it's a formative deep layer system, so there will likely be a low-shear window once it stops moving and does the usual cycloidal hook these things tend to have in a couple of days. during that time, whatever is turning at the surface, with the sharp temperature gradient supporting convection, may have time to spin up in the small window these things have for development near the ne caribbean. the diffluence upstream to the east will also likely favor cyclogenesis, though anything that could organize out there would move north and probably not develop much.
with the strong nao negative pattern forecast over the atlantic later this month, the globals continue to have another strong deep layer low south of the azores in the extended period. that'll need to be watched.
HF 0543z17november


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: alrighty then [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63664 - Thu Nov 17 2005 03:02 AM

SW Caribbean.
NHC is saying that the current Low will probably move onshore before attaining any Tropical status.

2 AM Discussion here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/170530.shtml?

Low level Center of Circ at this time appears to be just north of the center of the Honduran Coast. However, the mass of convection is situated to the NE of this point. All of the major convection is Northeast of the Nicaraguan/ Honduran Border.
Outflow is impressive from the SW Quad and around the Northern semicircle to the E Quad. Out flow at this time can be seen over the Southern half of the Florida Peninsula and south to the Florida Straits.

Tasking for the USAFR Hurricane Hunters is for a 1345Z takeoff Thursday, with an initial center fix time of 1800Z (1PM EST). With a 'follow on" mission tasked for the 18th at 1800Z...if the system remains offshore.


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UKCloudgazer
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Re: alrighty then [Re: danielw]
      #63665 - Thu Nov 17 2005 05:40 AM

93L appears to have become rather better organised inn the last hour or so. I imagine they will have to move the floater soon.

None of the models reflect this at present, but I remember one or two of them showing this a couple of days ago.


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Hugh
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Re: alrighty then [Re: UKCloudgazer]
      #63666 - Thu Nov 17 2005 06:54 AM

Quote:

93L appears to have become rather better organised inn the last hour or so. I imagine they will have to move the floater soon.
None of the models reflect this at present, but I remember one or two of them showing this a couple of days ago.




The sun hasn't risen over 93L yet, but looking at the IR4 loop... it's far from moving onshore into Honduras - considering that the convection is moving NW, not West. The convection is still displaced from the LLC, but I suspect that the center will reform during the day under the convection, and that we'll have TD 28 if the NHC doesn't cancel the recon into it. The position of the cold front will, IMHO, prevent landfall in Central America, and push the system north and eventually northeast. In other words, it's going exactly where TD 27 was originally forecast to go.

There appears to be a HUGE ULL in the Atlantic northeast of the islands, moving southwest. I think this feature will close the book on the most active hurricane season on record.... finally... unless something weird happens like it forms a low at the surface and becomes a tropical or subtropical cyclone itself. Not gonna happen.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Beach
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Could get wet ina few days... [Re: Hugh]
      #63667 - Thu Nov 17 2005 08:02 AM

Looks like we could see some rain down the road.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

Looks like it could get it's act together.


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Rich B
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Possible TD 28? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63668 - Thu Nov 17 2005 09:12 AM

hey guys,
i'm not convinced that 93L won't develop. sat imagery would indicate that the system remains largely offshore possibly with a centre near the Honduras / Nicaragua border. With some indications of a possible N or NE motion, and some model support, i think development into the 28th TC of the system still looks quite possible.

--------------------
Rich B

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ltpat228
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Re: Possible TD 28? [Re: Rich B]
      #63669 - Thu Nov 17 2005 09:18 AM

I agree, Rich.
There will be a TD28.......soon.......and...........we will also see some cyclone activiity in December.


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damejune2
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Re: Possible TD 28? [Re: ltpat228]
      #63670 - Thu Nov 17 2005 11:29 AM

The way this season is shaping up i am starting to wonder if the caribbean will ever cool down. Any Januaury storms on record? I know we've seem a few in December. I am willing to be that this is only the beginning. Next season will probably be worse; more storms, more severe and more after Nov 30th. Look at 2004 - bad season. Look at 2005 - really bad season. Look at 2006 - total chaos?

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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LoisCane
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winds are the issue not the heat [Re: damejune2]
      #63671 - Thu Nov 17 2005 11:35 AM

No matter how hot it is down below the surface if the winds are strong at the surface they will blow any chance of out of season tropical storms away like bubbles a child is blowing into a strong wind...

The issue is not the heat but the air currents that make or break a storm.

You can't just turn up the heat.. you have to have the right conditions aloft.
So..keep watching the atmosphere. It is why we call it Atmospheric Science.. the other one is Oceanography.

Watching the Caribbean just now.. with one eye on the frontal boundaries.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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typhoon_tip
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Re: winds are the issue not the heat [Re: LoisCane]
      #63672 - Thu Nov 17 2005 12:51 PM

...Interesting subtropical low appears to be genesizing about 1000 naut miles NE of the Leewards this morning...

First, while nothing I say is intended to preclude the possibility that a tropical depression will form of the current disturbance in the central/West Caribbean (close to Hon), it would be increasingly difficult in about another day.5. Reason being, large scale changes over Eastern N/A (which have relative certainty for trends and related teleconnections), suggest a significant expression of the +PNA is about to occur - probably lasting some time if not the rest of the month into Decembers first weeks... Hurrah, if you are a winter enthusiast, but this may also subtend a tendency for stronger SW shear components, even as far S as where any would be tropical depression #25 (or is it 26?) would materialize.

My early take on this is that it may behave similar to what we just saw happen in the eastern Caribbean... A depression will likely form near the coast of Hon...but then have difficulty intensifying "much" beyond that ranking as the surrounding environment gradually takes on these suggested increasing hostilities...

Currently on IR, there are "popcorn" cumulonimbus situated near the core of a cold U/A low, about 1000 naut miles N of the Leewards. About 300 naut miles ENE of there, we see a very baroclinic looking feature involving the lower to mid lvl fields. Having wrapped dry air into the backside (confirmed by WV), while isentropic lift associated with NW pulled WCB is a smoking gun for a frontogenic process.... But, what it interesting about this is that it is actually situated over sub-tropical type SSTs, while the NAO is neutral, tending positive in time, in tandem with said +PNA contruct set to evolve over the next 36 hours.

This will be something to watch as it slowly (most likely) migrates to the W. The +NAO, albeit subtle and or uncertain as to how intense it will ultimately become, will likely not be a very big influencer here in these nearer terms; nevertheless, it will tend to intensify the easterly component to the N of the gyre in question, and also, perhaps instantiate less capability for any wayward attempt at creating westerly shear in that area, in general. That is interesting considering that we are in the time of the year where we have about equal chances for having the shear be present in that area; perhaps much of this is a nice homage to how strong the ensuing +PNA may become, as having a very strong ridge tendency near 50W, would be a nice coupled signature for a trough evolving over the eastern 1/3 of N/A.

What all this means is that it seems higher than the average "mere 20% chance" (if you will...) that a sub-tropical low will be generated; or at least, more thermodynamically sub-tropical than the current appeal. That is to say, warm core are the surface, cold core aloft. There after, the advent of said ridge-trough couplet between the Atlantic and the intracontinental areas of eastern N/A would tend to imply a westerly drift, into a region with still warmer SSTs.

It wouldn't be a prediction for a hurricane here - I couldn't responsibly make that claim (even if a transitioned result isn't "IM"possible). But, it is an interesting time in the models because there is a lot of contention between the UKMET and GFS camps ( as just an example ), arguing over the feasibility, placemenet...etc, of a non-atypical autumnal ECS. (Drat! probably too warm this first go...)... Neat to see an ECS however, when you also have (possibly) a sub-tropical low embedded SE, but ever closer to the l/w axis the produced the ECS. . Could the l/w axis eventually interact with such a sub-tropical system ? It's a wild idea that wouldn't show up to well in the models, and of course, since those types of interaction are rare (1991 took 300 years of American technology to finally observe one, so who am I kidding)...it is more likely that the two would transpire unperturbed by eithers presents. Still, gotta love the playing field.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Nov 17 2005 12:58 PM)


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damejune2
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Re: winds are the issue not the heat [Re: LoisCane]
      #63673 - Thu Nov 17 2005 01:44 PM

You misunderstood me. I know winds aloft have a lot to do with formation and not just SST's. I meant the caribbean cooling down as in all the activity. Let me put it this way; in sports when a player is on a streak, what do they say? He is hot! Thats what i mean about the caribbean; all the activity, man o man is the caribbean hot right now! Not hot as in the SST's. Just wanted to clarify. The cooling down i mentioned in my first post was pertaining to all the activity - not the water.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


Edited by damejune2 (Thu Nov 17 2005 01:49 PM)


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damejune2
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Re: winds are the issue not the heat [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63674 - Thu Nov 17 2005 01:48 PM

Typhoon - how about laymens terms, huh? What in the heck are you saying? Should the USA expect anymore tropical weather this season or are we in the clear till June??

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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dave foster
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Re: winds are the issue not the heat [Re: damejune2]
      #63675 - Thu Nov 17 2005 02:12 PM

Strange? Navymil were investigating 93L an hour ago. Now they appear to have merged it with the remnants of 27L and re-constituted 27L . Methinks that NHC might have it as a TD soon...

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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typhoon_tip
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Re: winds are the issue not the heat [Re: damejune2]
      #63676 - Thu Nov 17 2005 02:33 PM

Quote:

Typhoon - how about laymens terms, huh? What in the heck are you saying? Should the USA expect anymore tropical weather this season or are we in the clear till June??




Hi...
..You're never in the clear my friend... Some years, the odds are essentially 0 in January, other years....maybe not. But, you are never absolutely 0...

However, for the sake of discussion...I would say that we are going to have very slim chances of the U.S. being affected by a tropical cyclone again before the seasonal return, late next spring, while at the same time (and rather ironically) we will have above average chances of renogade systems developing after the planned December 1st termination date.

Positive departed SSTs working in conjunction with a very powerfully negative Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, means that conditions will be unusually fertile for the generation of tropical cyclones....(here's the catch!) at lower latitudes. The reason that is emphasized is because, not unlike every year, the planned winter time incursion of westerlies into the subtropical latitudes, to where they can subtend an influence to points farther S (in more intense scenarios..), is well underway; with one caveat: more intense than normal closer to the U.S. mainland. This latter intimation is because we have a Multi-Decadal Oscillation that favors severe winters underway - which is by no means an "always" scenario, but one that means we should be weary of any tendencies at all, to drive the +PNA along... This is because when the MDO is positive, there is a teleconnection to positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation..

Just so you are familiar with what these are:
North Atlantic Oscillation:
1) Positive Phase: +SD heights anywhere from N of Ireland to Davis Straights just W of Greenland, and associated +SD surface high pressure... This effectively blocks the cold from the polar Canadian districts from punching E into the N Atlantic, complimented by the fact that the jet stream in such conditions "buckles" in the "means" ("means" meaning, not all the time, but the average state of the main westerly core positioning) and sends these cold air masses, instead, S into the U.S. more frequently.
2) Negative Phase: -SD "........................." and associated -SD "............................", and the opposite means there after. This implies warm regimes for the contiguous U.S. if you are following me.
3) Neutral Phase: No discernable departure from tropospheric mass balance in the N. Atlantic Basin and adjacent areas; no discernable height bias either... Caries little influence either way on the weather in the contiguous and basically is a big boring waste of time.

Multi-Decadal Oscillation:
...About ever 20-30 years or so, the Atlantic Ocean decides to cool off and then heat back up again...by a 1 or 2C average across...pretty much the broad expanse of the ocean - of particularly current concern, N of the tropics/sub-tropics.. It's like our own ENSO in this hemisphere, but one that has a much longer periodicity, than that which takes place in the Equitorial Pacific. (Which by the way, since the ENSO signal is essentially neutral, we are not thinking a huge influence on the Pacific Jet, but that's a digression). Studies have shown that warm SSTs in various locations in the N Atlantic tends to correlate with the existence of blocking ridge tendencies, subsequently the positive phase of the NAO is accepted. If you look at the current SST charts along with the anomalies, you will see that the positive phase of the MDO is definitely present, having substantial warm departures from normal existing over the waters of the N Atlantic.

Since these indices/teleconnector existences, in the longer term, favor the positive phases of the NAO, it stands to reason there is a stronger than normal likelihood for higher amplitude flow. That is why the GFS going bonkers with a sub-polar vortex that looks like it belongs in that terrible movie "The Day After Tomorrow", over SE Canada. There is likely back-ground physics that are insisting a winter to remember over the continent of N America....

Point being, higher amplitude flows will tend to shunt activity away from the U.S. proper. That is what it means in your layman's terms, which really cut down the probability that a wayward tropical disturbance can find its way on board in a latter Novembers, particularly when you have amplified flow regimes Globally statistically supported to exist - therein we derive our confidences.

That doesn't mean it "can't" happen of course, and usually, that's when people die -s trangely enough... Also, it would seem reasonable to assume much of this has less ability to apply to S. Florida its self, which stick out there like a sore thumb at any time of the year.

Lastly, the reason this is interesting for the potential sub-tropical feature 1000 naut miles NNE of the Leewards is because if you understand the basics of atmospheric circulation, a high parked in the N Atlantic tends to drive a deep layer easterly flow, which tends to lower shear in that particular geography of the Atlantic... When you look at the IR imagery, you can see a near E Coast baroclinic zone lingering there...That is the shear axis...Anything E of there is "theoretically" in a favorable U/A arena...Anything along and W of that? Winter time and nadda...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Nov 17 2005 02:37 PM)


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Brad in Miami
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Recon & Wilma [Re: dave foster]
      #63677 - Thu Nov 17 2005 02:43 PM

I'm interested to see if NHC classifies this now. It appears that recon has found a circulation center just off the coast of Nicaragua, which corresponds well to the appearance on visible satellite imagery. However, that center is somewhat removed from most of the convection. The westerly winds, at least from the reports I've seen, are fairly light but not insignificant. Here are recon reports 7-10:

7: 11.9/82.3 - wind 210 degrees, 19 kt at flight level; estimated sea level pressure 1007 mb
8: 12.9/83.1 - wind 190 degrees, 14 kt at flight level; estimated sea level pressure 1003 mb
9: 14.2/82.5 - wind 130 degrees, 24 kt at flight level; estimated sea level pressure 1005 mb
10: 15.1/82.6 - wind 100 degrees, 26 kt at flight level; estimated sea level pressure 1006 mb

And although this comment is very late, I toured a large part of southeast Florida - from Homestead to Boca - after Wilma, and my visual impression is that we got high-end cat 1 winds, with the possibility of low-end cat 2 in a few places. Yes, the hurricane was a cat 3, but I just don't see the evidence of winds higher than high-end cat 1/low-end cat 2. Tons of tree damage (e.g., I lost most of my landscaping); some structural damage, although mostly minor (e.g., shingles and an occasional window or roof whose damage was not caused by a falling tree or other flying object); lots of signs down. But lots of signs and trees still standing, and most houses with little or no structural damage.

As with most people, the worst thing for me was the lack of power: 2 weeks because of a snapped pole on my street. (A ficus tree fell into the pole and snapped it; the wind didn't snap it without help from the tree.)

Fingers crossed that the disturbance down there does not develop. I'm ready for this season to be over.


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Brad in Miami
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Re: Recon & Wilma [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #63678 - Thu Nov 17 2005 02:46 PM

Recon observation 11:

16.4/84.0: winds 40 degrees, 20 kt at flight level; estimated SLP 1007 mb


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Margie
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Re: Recon & Wilma [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #63679 - Thu Nov 17 2005 03:49 PM

NHC TPC has posted a special tropical disturbance statement to the effect that no TD has formed, either in 93L or in the remnants of TD27 (although they found near TS-force winds assoc w/those showers, but no closed surface circ).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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doug
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Re: Recon & Wilma [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #63680 - Thu Nov 17 2005 04:37 PM

Hi Brad:
I too saw what you did, but FPL lost 10,000 poles (twice the loss in Andrew) most of which were rated at 119mph...go figure...

Other posts on the Florida Power Pole topic were moved to the Hurricane Ask/ Tell thread~danielw

Edited by danielw (Thu Nov 17 2005 09:55 PM)


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doug
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Re: Recon & Wilma [Re: Margie]
      #63681 - Thu Nov 17 2005 04:42 PM

The very most recent visible shows the LLC in the southern portion of this system has ducked on shore;
but that is not the whole story here the northern portion where the healthiest convection is is showing signs of a circulation (ole 27L).
I am not bullish on any thing other than a rain maker coming out of this.

--------------------
doug


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HanKFranK
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nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: doug]
      #63690 - Fri Nov 18 2005 12:17 AM

td 27 puffed out, but it's remnant area is stuck on the north coast of honduras right now... while the 93L low is chugging slowly nw into honduras towards the nw caribbean. deep convection is firing in the area... so all it should take is the low pressure zone to move offshore and get the feedback started. as is, the system is essentially a depression with a very elongated center. it'll be interesting if recon finds t.s. winds tomorrow if the center were to still be onshore. that's not much different than tammy was a month and a half ago, after moving inland into georgia but still having t.s. winds over the open water. guess we'll see how logically consistent the NHC wants to be.
there's that hybrid wannabe system up near 25/50... migrating more or less sw towards the caribbean. not much at the surface with it... maybe an elongated surface trough with some maxes on it. it's got a low-end chance of hybridizing over the next few days.
the big upper low that was being shown in the eastern atlantic during week 2 is less consistent on model runs now, but there are still features out there of interest. with the deep trough over the east, there should be enough amplitude in the pattern to favor anomalous ridging and lower than normal shear in places. strictly hybrid potential, though... SSTs out there are subpar for a typical tropical cyclone.
best chances at another system are with the mess around honduras, which is sitting on the fence for now.
HF 0517z18november


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Hootowl
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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63691 - Fri Nov 18 2005 07:05 AM

Good Morning all,

Dr. Gray's 2005 Forecast Summary is out. Good reading. Get your coffee ready and settle down - it's a long one.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/nov2005/

methinks this will have to be updated.......

Edited by Hootowl (Fri Nov 18 2005 06:42 PM)


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HURRICANELONNY
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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Hootowl]
      #63692 - Fri Nov 18 2005 08:13 AM

Looking at the floater loop it seems a LLC or MLC is located around 14n 85w. Heading in a NNW motion. Could be Gamma today if recon finds the low there. Can't beleive I'm posting this time of year. Will it ever end???

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saluki
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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #63693 - Fri Nov 18 2005 09:19 AM

Just looked at the model tracks for this mess in the northwestern Caribbean, and they look dishearteningly similar to Wilma's track. Any thoughts/opinions on how strong this could be once it reaches Florida -- if it ever does? None of the reports I've seen locally indicate anything more than a potentially rainy weekend here.

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Mike
Weather Watcher


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NHC STDS 11/18 090 [Re: saluki]
      #63694 - Fri Nov 18 2005 09:25 AM

Here is a NHC STDS as of 0900 today:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
900 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER
TODAY. IF ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COAST AND
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

EVEN IF NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.


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Cycloneye11
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Special Tropical Disturbance Statement [Re: saluki]
      #63695 - Fri Nov 18 2005 09:26 AM

WONT41 KNHC 181400
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
900 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER
TODAY. IF ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COAST AND
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

EVEN IF NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER BEVEN



Let's see what recon finds when they get there early in the afternoon.


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Margie
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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: saluki]
      #63696 - Fri Nov 18 2005 09:32 AM

Good morning. Looks like overnight the low (93L) moved offshore into the convection that is the remnants of TD27 and they've combined, and look awfully good. Wind shear is low and they're right under that anticyclone, and so I am guess we'll have a TD and then a TS shortly?

NRL still has them listed separately...93L image just a little south of what they're calling 27LNoname, but clearly it is the combination of the two, right, and not just reforming of TD27, because there is no weel-defined spin of the remnants of TD27 on its own?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Lysis
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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #63697 - Fri Nov 18 2005 09:36 AM

00z GFDL is neat… at about 78 hours it is splits and makes another closed low entirely, with the parent system making landfall in western cuba as a hurricane. The latter energy crosses florida, ingests the other, and then bombs out to a 970mb> low around 40N!
This is basically an exercise in the allocation of energy I guess, which I am not sure to what proficiency the models handle. I cannot wait to see how all this pans out.

EDIT: Margie, as you know the politics of regeneration are always shaky at best. I think in this case they will just make up a new tropical cyclone however, if not go straight to Gamma.

EDIT II: ah, never mind. I just looked at the 06Z... which looks, uh, just like Wilma

Arrghhh... I crave information

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Fri Nov 18 2005 10:28 AM)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Lysis]
      #63698 - Fri Nov 18 2005 10:10 AM

I think the GFDL is being very aggressive, no other models show this. It has a Cat 3 off the coast by the end of the run. Isn't the water too cold for that?

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lawgator
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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63699 - Fri Nov 18 2005 10:52 AM

Yeah, here's a link to the GFDL: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

That does look like Wilma II, doesn't it?? Right now, the IR loop for the floater looks pretty impressive.


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HanKFranK
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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: lawgator]
      #63701 - Fri Nov 18 2005 11:00 AM

hmm.. lot of shear for that sort of scenario. some of the energy from the system may be drawn north into the noreaster type system that is forecast to develop off the east coast early next week. the GFDL is suggesting that 27/gamma IS the noreaster, and that it comes across lower florida as a hurricane on the way to being it. none of the other globals think this is a viable solution, and personally i don't see it happening given the environmental conditions along the way.
on the other hand, NHC is wiggling around about what is quite likely a tropical storm on the north coast of honduras. i guess it just has to hit it out of the park, because the plate calls are really not going its way. recon will be down there to put this issue to rest in a few hours.
HF 1600z18november


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jusforsean
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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: lawgator]
      #63702 - Fri Nov 18 2005 11:01 AM

o.k. looking at the models i am NOT LIKING THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Amazing to me how we we depend on the models and they all have it coming right thru SFL but they could be wrong.... I suppose we wont know until it hits us in the head literally , can all of these models be wrong? Are they missing data that will start to surface and change the path? And doesnt the NHC use them for guidance and usually follow thier lead?
It seems that everyone has a different forecast, SFL, central florida, cuba/bahamas? Who knows> I am hearing this thing is like 4 days out is that right?? Arent the models pretty good as the 5 day forecast closes in? As for as I can gather we are dealing with possible Gamma coming from the west and now i hear of a possinle more south east of us? Trying to keep up>> Thanks


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Thunderbird12
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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63703 - Fri Nov 18 2005 11:06 AM

The 06Z GFDL is certainly, um, interesting with a 928mb hybrid system making landfall in Nova Scotia in 120 hours. I'll believe something like that when I see it. Anything that does develop certainly could end up getting baroclinically enhanced ahead of the next strong system diving into the SE.

It figures that there would be a system in the NW Caribbean now, the one window of opportunity in the upper-level pattern in at least the next week for a tropical system to possibly move as far north as Florida. If 27L did not get sling-shotted to the NW around 93L, there probably wouldn't be anything this far north to begin with. However, anything that develops still may end up moving south of the Florida peninsula, or else get hung up over the Yucutan, so no reason to be overly concerned in Florida yet.

Buoy 42056 has been reporting 1-minute sustained winds of around 30 knots, so this is definitely a T.D. and close to becoming Gamma if in fact they find a well-defined low pressure center down there.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: lawgator]
      #63704 - Fri Nov 18 2005 11:16 AM

Hard to belive that model isn't some sick April Fool's Day but I checked.. it's new. Sure seems like it needs to be reset or something.

Anytime you have a storm down there this time of year you have to worry.. anyone who doesn't is a fool and mamma didn't birth no fool.

Nice to say it will most likely go south of us but with fickle early season front's nothing is a give and there isn't a sure thing when it comes to tropical forecasting in late November.

Thanks... watching.. not sure whether to giggle, laugh or cry.. definitely surreal

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: LoisCane]
      #63706 - Fri Nov 18 2005 11:33 AM

With all the fronts moving south, i doubt any system will make it as far north as Florida. Northern Cuba, if it's lucky, but i highly doubt it. Even if it did i would have to say that it wouldn't be that strong. The shear alone would rip it pretty good and it would be moving at a pretty good clip to the NE. If anything actually does come towards the sunshine state, i'd say strong tropical storm. We have a frontal system headed this way Monday night - Tuesday morning and then another soon after that. That will make it difficult for any system to touch Florida, in my opinion.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Lysis]
      #63707 - Fri Nov 18 2005 11:58 AM

Ok, well the circulation is very well-defined and there is convection, and winds have been at or close to TS force for at least a day, so the key to whether it is a TD right now is, is there banding/org convection around the center? Looking at most recent 85ghz scans, yes, at 6am there is a band from about 90deg around the N and W down to aboug 225deg, at 8am similar, but still has not wrapped around, although a well-defined center, and it will need to tighten up. This is because the overall circ is partially over land, right? So with the level of org, and windspeeds, as soon as it moves out into the Carib a little more, and the convection wraps around, we'll have a TD, but since winds may be higher, I assume we'll jump right to Gamma? Possibly NHC TPC will wait until the results of the recon?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Margie]
      #63708 - Fri Nov 18 2005 12:18 PM

Interesting there's no 11:30 update from the NHC.

I stil the the GFDL is goofy on this one.


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63709 - Fri Nov 18 2005 12:28 PM

Quote:

Interesting there's no 11:30 update from the NHC.

I stil the the GFDL is goofy on this one.




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS JUST EAST OF ROATAN ISLAND. IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM
LATER TODAY. IF ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COAST
AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG WINDS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM...AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TPC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
BRANCH UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFAT2 AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT02
KNHC.

EVEN IF NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

--------------------
RJB


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Lysis
User


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Loc: Hong Kong
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63710 - Fri Nov 18 2005 12:30 PM

The black and white vis loop doesn't really give you much as far as depth-of-field. The RGB loop here is much more telling of the cyclone at multiple levels. The banding features, etc are even moreso evident:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T1/RGB_loop.html

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Fri Nov 18 2005 12:32 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Ron Basso]
      #63711 - Fri Nov 18 2005 12:47 PM

What is interesting to me is that it sounds like they are going to continue with nameTD27 instead of going to TD28, even though the convection didn't have any org circ until the low from 93L merged into it. Although I guess it is a moot point, because just as soon as circ wraps around it'll be Gamma.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Margie]
      #63712 - Fri Nov 18 2005 12:53 PM

Does anyone know what time Recon is due in the area??

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Fletch]
      #63713 - Fri Nov 18 2005 12:57 PM

2pm-ish I believe

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Brad in Miami
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Posts: 365
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Fletch]
      #63714 - Fri Nov 18 2005 01:01 PM

Actually, recon is pretty much there now - at 17.0/84.6 as of 1251 pm - so we should get some interesting data back soon.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Margie]
      #63715 - Fri Nov 18 2005 02:08 PM

Buoy 42056 reported sustained winds to 35 knots (tropical storm force) a couple of hours ago, but unfortunately it looks like the wind sensor has gone haywire since then (it is currently reporting winds out of the east at 0 knots, with gusts to 0 knots). This will probably go straight to Gamma if it is classified.

Speaking of haywire, the 12Z GFDL continues to bring the system into south Florida in about 72-84 hours, at tropical storm intensity. The latest run dissipates the system right after 96 hours off the coast of the Carolinas, which is odd because it has the system at minimal hurricane strength at 96 hours.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63716 - Fri Nov 18 2005 02:29 PM

I think there is no doubt that something will cross Florida Monday evening, it's just a question of what. If I had to speculate, based on water temps & shear a TD or weak TS moving very quickly.

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63717 - Fri Nov 18 2005 02:47 PM

The other mods keep this down in the west Carrib for a few days and then pull the moisture across the peninsula...A strong front is forecast into Florida on Tuesday and that scenario makes the most logical sense ( but then again logic is all I have to work with, whoever said this stuff was logical?)

--------------------
doug


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: doug]
      #63718 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:06 PM

I think if this becomes Gamma today it's going to weaken and move across Florida, but I was thinking top winds in the 30-35 mph range for a few hours, with some higher gusts (maybe). I would agree that if it doesn't get here until Tuesday, it's in the Carribean and SF gets sporatic rain.

To those who are reading, I'm in real estate not a met; your guess is as good as mine.


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DJINFLA
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Sebastian, FL
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63719 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:14 PM

Found this in the Hunter's page. Don't really understand it, though. Perhaps someone can interpret. Is this even the correct info?

000
URPN12 KNHC 191854
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/18:30:20Z
B. 12 deg 28 min N
090 deg 34 min W
C. NA mb 1298 m
D. 80 kt
E. 090 deg 007 nm
F. 114 deg 071 kt
G. 35 deg 008 nm
H. EXTRAP 984 mb
I. 15 C/ 1528 m
J. 26 C/ 1517 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN E
M. C25
N. 12345/08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0101E ADRIAN OB 16
MAX FL WIND 83 KT N QUAD 16:53:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
HEAVY RAIN OUTBOUND NW QUAD


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63720 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:15 PM

latest recon:
URNT11 KNHC 182004
97779 19574 60160 85500 03100 99005 22223 /0007
49905
RMK AF309 02JJA INVEST OB 16


this is the lowest pressure so far.... and looks still like the center is broad...winds are atleast a TD status now, but i haven't seen any TS winds at flt. level..... but there not far off...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Nov 18 2005 03:19 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: DJINFLA]
      #63721 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:16 PM

That vortex report two posts above is not a recon report from this storm. That looks like a recon report from the first Pacific storm this season.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Fri Nov 18 2005 03:17 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
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Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: DJINFLA]
      #63722 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:18 PM

That Hunters page is a east pac system in a different month,,probably year...see it says 19th and today is the 18th.,.,also the lat and long is centering it off the west coast of Coasta Rica in the Pacific.

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DJINFLA
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 28
Loc: Sebastian, FL
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: scottsvb]
      #63723 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:22 PM

OK, I've been sleeping. Bad link or something. But, has any reports come back yet? Should we plan for a wet, windy week next week?

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: nothing yet, but it ain't over [Re: DJINFLA]
      #63724 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:30 PM

Wet and windy Monday or Tuesday most likely.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Weather Report [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63725 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:40 PM

Here is a weather station on the small island off of Honduras near the center. Winds have been 45 gusting to 60 in the past 2 hours and the pressure bottomed out at 29.58".

http://63.245.92.231/Current/Current_custom.htm

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Weather Report [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #63726 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:42 PM

wunderground just posted TS Gamma & going through SF

www.wunderground.com


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Weather Report [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63727 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:43 PM

we have gamma!

winds 40mph
pres. 1006

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN RE-GENERATES...BECOMES TROPICAL
STORM GAMMA...



--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Nov 18 2005 03:44 PM)


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: GAMMA IS BORN [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63728 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:44 PM

TS Gamma is officially born, threat to South Fla early next week.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
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Re: Weather Report [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #63730 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:46 PM

New thread up on the main page.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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