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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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pincty
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: ralphfl]
      #63817 - Sat Nov 19 2005 07:03 PM

Exactly Ralph...at least we won't have to hear of anymore Tampa predictions until next summer.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Storm Classification [Re: pincty]
      #63818 - Sat Nov 19 2005 08:27 PM

ED's post explained the upgrade of Tropical Depression to Tropical Storm. Present satellite technology and positioning allow TPC/NHC to classify and declassify Tropical Systems that would have been unobserved in past decades.
Gamma, is presently maintaining a Current Intensity (CI) of 3.0 AODT (Dvorak), from CIMSS, with winds estimated at 45kts and pressure estimated at 1000mb. However, the Raw Value has dropped from a 3.4 CI at 1945Z to a 1.9 CI at 0115Z.
The 'Final AODT Position' is estimated near the half-way point between the heaviest convection and the Honduran Coast.

I recall NHC stating yesterday, that the aircraft couldn't close of a Low. They used surface reports from near-storm locations of 45-60mph winds as additional evidence of a Tropical Storm.

Below are two examples of how a Low is "closed".


The "Delta" pattern is one of the flight that RECON utilizes to "close off" a Low. The storm may be entered at any of the 'turn points' and the remaining pattern is flown to close off the wind speed and direction.


Edited by danielw (Sat Nov 19 2005 08:43 PM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Classification [Re: danielw]
      #63819 - Sat Nov 19 2005 08:41 PM

They definitely used surface reports from the island of Roatan very near the center. Yesterday I sent a link of the personal weather station located there to the NHC and this morning I got a thank you email from Jack Beven. He really appreciated it and he was even going to find out more about that station to use it in the future.

good job, man. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Nov 19 2005 11:05 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Classification [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #63820 - Sat Nov 19 2005 08:50 PM

I attempted to use that site for reference around 4 AM this morning. But it was offline.

It's online now and the graphs show that the winds began to drop off and the pressure began to rise around 1:30 AM this morning. There appears to be a slight disparity in the graphs and the maximums for today. Possibly due to a power failure or some database interruption.

http://63.245.92.231/Current/Current_custom.htm


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
More points to ponder [Re: danielw]
      #63821 - Sat Nov 19 2005 09:18 PM

The Low that is forecast to develop in the Eastern GMX is presently visible on satellite imagery.
Updating image here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/SE/current_AVN.jpg


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Clark]
      #63823 - Sat Nov 19 2005 09:44 PM

The three day is out on sunsentinel.com. The track is much further south, nothing else posted yet.

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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: More points to ponder [Re: danielw]
      #63824 - Sat Nov 19 2005 10:37 PM

Gamma seems to be acting like Wrong Way Lenny did a 3 years ago going from West to East. Who knows PR maybe under the gun.


Dave

Old age must be catching up with me,, Lenny 1999 not 3 yrs ago...

Edited by Old Sailor (Sat Nov 19 2005 11:09 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #63826 - Sat Nov 19 2005 11:06 PM

Thanks for posting that, Ed -- I was largely going with the NHC and their comments in the first advisory as Gamma, but the 850hPa vorticity product from UWisc-CIMSS confirms the analysis. The remnants of TD 27 pivoted around the northern edge of that SW Caribbean feature and redeveloped to the north of it in a region of diffluent flow aloft (winds spreading apart at upper levels) as the surface low to the south moved inland. It's much more clear-cut than, say, TD 10/Katrina earlier this season, albeit admittedly not as clear-cut as the remnants of TD 13/Lee.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Bye Bye Gamma [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #63827 - Sat Nov 19 2005 11:10 PM

There's only one storm that really met that critera -- Lee, which lasted for all of one advisory as a tropical storm, earlier this season. Everything else is pretty clear-cut in my book. Gamma meets the criteria, too...closed-low, albeit being sheared, not atypical of a November tropical storm...recon, satellite, and surface confirmation of the wind field. It'll meet it's demise ahead of a vigorous system that will impact the northeast in a few days.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Clark]
      #63832 - Sun Nov 20 2005 10:17 AM

We now have T.D. Gamma and going down or the count.

Time to buy Thanksgiving food, the electric should stay on.

Edited by Lee-Delray (Sun Nov 20 2005 10:21 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
95L [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63833 - Sun Nov 20 2005 11:54 AM

east altlantic hybrid type system is revving up this morning. it has a comma signature but a convective core, so the NRL folks put an invest out on it. nothing out of ssd yet. it's sort of pick-your-model with it right now... euro has it washing out in about a week, while GFS has it loitering out there under the nao-negative block for two weeks. it's lifting off right now in a baroclinic zone, but should be blocked and forced south next week. potential analog track may be peter of 2003. it's way the heck out there, though, so just a potential padding of the numbers, if it can develop tropical characteristics over marginal waters, from a non-tropical profile.
gamma has had all of its convection sheared away, and is meandering ahead of an oncoming frontal zone. it may be classified as a nonconvective low before the front gets to it. should wash out into a vorticity zone in the western caribbean in the next couple of days. the rain-noreaster in the gulf is already forming, and should sweep up the east coast without taking gamma.
looks like the 2005 threat is down to whatever can spin up a meager existence in the caribbean, and whatever else can linger in the central or eastern atlantic until it gets a tropical profile. we're essentially done, with the threat gamma was thought to pose friday having evaporated.
HF 1654z20november


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
Re: 95L [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63835 - Sun Nov 20 2005 02:32 PM

We had to get all the way to the 20th before it happened though (the season basically died)

What a year. Certainly one not to be forgotten, although in terms of impact its not THAT much different than '04. Katrina skewed that so badly due to the levee failures and the devastation in MS which is STILL being underreported - unless you've been there you just can't imagine what reality is for that area.

I can only hope that next year, if its active, we have more recurves off the Atlantic coast (that don't hit!) rather than the westward-bias we've had for the last two. Here's looking for that Bermuda High to actually be over Bermuda next year...


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: 95L [Re: Genesis]
      #63836 - Sun Nov 20 2005 03:26 PM

The prbolem with the storms this year is that that all formed inside of 50W so they were west of the Bermuda High. Anything the formed east of the high didn't make it here. I say lets hope for ice cubes in the Gulf and Carribean.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
95L and GOM Low [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63838 - Sun Nov 20 2005 07:32 PM

Dr. Steve Lyons at TWC, gave 95L a bit more than an Honorable Mention around 8 EST this morning. He even went so far as to say it would probably be named "DELTA".

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005 (excerpt~danielw)

...FARTHER E...A STRENGTHENING 1003 MB LOW IS NEAR 28N43W MOVING SLOWLY NE.
A NEARBY UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW A CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE LOW WITH UPPER DYNAMICS/LIFT ALREADY PRODUCING ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AND MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM 17N-29N BETWEEN 44W-50W NEAR AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS LOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL STORM AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MID-LATITUDE CENTRAL ATLC...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/210012.shtml?

Most of the NWS eyes are on the front moving through the MS valley and the GOM. Models have forecast a surface Low to develop in the GOM during the next 24hours. While Non-Tropical in nature (baroclinic), the low(s), are "forecast to deepen rapidly after passing Florida", and possibly create a snarl for Thanksgiving Travelers.
HPC mentioned Snow as far south as the Southern Appalachians.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html

Edited by danielw (Sun Nov 20 2005 07:40 PM)


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 146
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
how about some predictions here?! [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63839 - Sun Nov 20 2005 07:32 PM

Do you think there is any chance for more named storms this season or are we truly done?

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
9 Days and counting [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #63840 - Sun Nov 20 2005 07:49 PM

I edited my post above while you were posting.

At least a chance of 1 named storm. Per the NHC Discussion excerpt. Possibly end the season with "DELTA".
With 9 days left in the Official 2005 Hurricane Season. And numerous Cold Fronts moving through the Continental US, I personally think we are near or at the end. However, sea temperatures in the Caribbean are Still warm enough to sustain a Tropical System. The Westerly and Southwesterly shear is more prominant in the W Caribbean making conditions less favorable for intensification of any system that might develop. As we have seen with GAMMA.

edit-Clark, ED and Hank are much more qualified to answer this question~danielw

Edited by danielw (Sun Nov 20 2005 07:51 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: how about some predictions here?! [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #63841 - Sun Nov 20 2005 08:43 PM

Nothing really stands out tropically for imminent development. Conditions are pretty hostile across much of the favored regions for tropical development this time of year.

Invest 95L, currently a surface reflection of an upper-level trough -- the one that was around that sheared TD 27 well before it became Gamma, I believe -- will have a shot in a few days. The pattern is about to become a bit blocky over the central Atlantic, causing this feature to become trapped. Most models are showing some development of the feature as it pinwheels in a clockwise loop -- NE, then south and southwest -- over the next few days, gradually decaying toward the end of the period.

Cyclone phase diagrams from each of the major global models suggest at least some warm-core transition in the low levels over the next few days with some potential growth of that warm core into the upper levels (e.g. completing tropical transition). But, generally coincident with that growth, we get decay over unfavorable surface conditions (waters too cool). If things pan out, we might well see a subtropical cyclone out of it with a fair shot at a tropical cyclone in the next few days. It'll be one to watch into next week, certainly longer than Gamma will be around.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
GAMMA...Gone [Re: Clark]
      #63842 - Sun Nov 20 2005 10:54 PM

From the 10PM EST Advisory.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

GAMMA CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT
ALSO CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THUS THE SYSTEM
NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ARE
BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.


bold emphasis added~danielw


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Clark]
      #63843 - Mon Nov 21 2005 08:39 AM

If 2006 is as bad as 2005 do they use the same Greek letters again or do they start further up?

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63844 - Mon Nov 21 2005 09:43 AM

They would start with Alpha once again, as far as anyone knows. The possibility of another season next year quite like this season's is pretty remote, however.

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