pincty
Weather Watcher
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Exactly Ralph...at least we won't have to hear of anymore Tampa predictions until next summer.
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danielw
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ED's post explained the upgrade of Tropical Depression to Tropical Storm. Present satellite technology and positioning allow TPC/NHC to classify and declassify Tropical Systems that would have been unobserved in past decades.
Gamma, is presently maintaining a Current Intensity (CI) of 3.0 AODT (Dvorak), from CIMSS, with winds estimated at 45kts and pressure estimated at 1000mb. However, the Raw Value has dropped from a 3.4 CI at 1945Z to a 1.9 CI at 0115Z.
The 'Final AODT Position' is estimated near the half-way point between the heaviest convection and the Honduran Coast.
I recall stating yesterday, that the aircraft couldn't close of a Low. They used surface reports from near-storm locations of 45-60mph winds as additional evidence of a Tropical Storm.
Below are two examples of how a Low is "closed".
The "Delta" pattern is one of the flight that RECON utilizes to "close off" a Low. The storm may be entered at any of the 'turn points' and the remaining pattern is flown to close off the wind speed and direction.
Edited by danielw (Sun Nov 20 2005 01:43 AM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
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They definitely used surface reports from the island of Roatan very near the center. Yesterday I sent a link of the personal weather station located there to the and this morning I got a thank you email from Jack Beven. He really appreciated it and he was even going to find out more about that station to use it in the future.
good job, man. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Nov 20 2005 04:05 AM)
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danielw
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I attempted to use that site for reference around 4 AM this morning. But it was offline.
It's online now and the graphs show that the winds began to drop off and the pressure began to rise around 1:30 AM this morning. There appears to be a slight disparity in the graphs and the maximums for today. Possibly due to a power failure or some database interruption.
http://63.245.92.231/Current/Current_custom.htm
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danielw
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The Low that is forecast to develop in the Eastern GMX is presently visible on satellite imagery.
Updating image here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/SE/current_AVN.jpg
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Lee-Delray
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The three day is out on sunsentinel.com. The track is much further south, nothing else posted yet.
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Old Sailor
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Gamma seems to be acting like Wrong Way Lenny did a 3 years ago going from West to East. Who knows PR maybe under the gun.
Dave
Old age must be catching up with me,, Lenny 1999 not 3 yrs ago...
Edited by Old Sailor (Sun Nov 20 2005 04:09 AM)
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Clark
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Thanks for posting that, Ed -- I was largely going with the and their comments in the first advisory as Gamma, but the 850hPa vorticity product from UWisc-CIMSS confirms the analysis. The remnants of TD 27 pivoted around the northern edge of that SW Caribbean feature and redeveloped to the north of it in a region of diffluent flow aloft (winds spreading apart at upper levels) as the surface low to the south moved inland. It's much more clear-cut than, say, TD 10/Katrina earlier this season, albeit admittedly not as clear-cut as the remnants of TD 13/Lee.
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Clark
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There's only one storm that really met that critera -- Lee, which lasted for all of one advisory as a tropical storm, earlier this season. Everything else is pretty clear-cut in my book. Gamma meets the criteria, too...closed-low, albeit being sheared, not atypical of a November tropical storm...recon, satellite, and surface confirmation of the wind field. It'll meet it's demise ahead of a vigorous system that will impact the northeast in a few days.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Lee-Delray
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We now have T.D. Gamma and going down or the count.
Time to buy Thanksgiving food, the electric should stay on.
Edited by Lee-Delray (Sun Nov 20 2005 03:21 PM)
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HanKFranK
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east altlantic hybrid type system is revving up this morning. it has a comma signature but a convective core, so the folks put an invest out on it. nothing out of ssd yet. it's sort of pick-your-model with it right now... euro has it washing out in about a week, while has it loitering out there under the nao-negative block for two weeks. it's lifting off right now in a baroclinic zone, but should be blocked and forced south next week. potential analog track may be peter of 2003. it's way the heck out there, though, so just a potential padding of the numbers, if it can develop tropical characteristics over marginal waters, from a non-tropical profile.
gamma has had all of its convection sheared away, and is meandering ahead of an oncoming frontal zone. it may be classified as a nonconvective low before the front gets to it. should wash out into a vorticity zone in the western caribbean in the next couple of days. the rain-noreaster in the gulf is already forming, and should sweep up the east coast without taking gamma.
looks like the 2005 threat is down to whatever can spin up a meager existence in the caribbean, and whatever else can linger in the central or eastern atlantic until it gets a tropical profile. we're essentially done, with the threat gamma was thought to pose friday having evaporated.
HF 1654z20november
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Genesis
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We had to get all the way to the 20th before it happened though (the season basically died)
What a year. Certainly one not to be forgotten, although in terms of impact its not THAT much different than '04. skewed that so badly due to the levee failures and the devastation in MS which is STILL being underreported - unless you've been there you just can't imagine what reality is for that area.
I can only hope that next year, if its active, we have more recurves off the Atlantic coast (that don't hit!) rather than the westward-bias we've had for the last two. Here's looking for that Bermuda High to actually be over Bermuda next year...
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Lee-Delray
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The prbolem with the storms this year is that that all formed inside of 50W so they were west of the Bermuda High. Anything the formed east of the high didn't make it here. I say lets hope for ice cubes in the Gulf and Carribean.
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danielw
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Dr. Steve Lyons at , gave 95L a bit more than an Honorable Mention around 8 EST this morning. He even went so far as to say it would probably be named "DELTA".
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005 (excerpt~danielw)
...FARTHER E...A STRENGTHENING 1003 MB LOW IS NEAR 28N43W MOVING SLOWLY NE.
A NEARBY UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW A CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE LOW WITH UPPER DYNAMICS/LIFT ALREADY PRODUCING ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AND MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM 17N-29N BETWEEN 44W-50W NEAR AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS LOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL STORM AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MID-LATITUDE CENTRAL ATLC...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/210012.shtml?
Most of the NWS eyes are on the front moving through the MS valley and the GOM. Models have forecast a surface Low to develop in the GOM during the next 24hours. While Non-Tropical in nature (baroclinic), the low(s), are "forecast to deepen rapidly after passing Florida", and possibly create a snarl for Thanksgiving Travelers.
HPC mentioned Snow as far south as the Southern Appalachians.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html
Edited by danielw (Mon Nov 21 2005 12:40 AM)
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vineyardsaker
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Do you think there is any chance for more named storms this season or are we truly done?
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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danielw
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I edited my post above while you were posting.
At least a chance of 1 named storm. Per the Discussion excerpt. Possibly end the season with "DELTA".
With 9 days left in the Official 2005 Hurricane Season. And numerous Cold Fronts moving through the Continental US, I personally think we are near or at the end. However, sea temperatures in the Caribbean are Still warm enough to sustain a Tropical System. The Westerly and Southwesterly shear is more prominant in the W Caribbean making conditions less favorable for intensification of any system that might develop. As we have seen with GAMMA.
edit-Clark, ED and Hank are much more qualified to answer this question~danielw
Edited by danielw (Mon Nov 21 2005 12:51 AM)
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Clark
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Nothing really stands out tropically for imminent development. Conditions are pretty hostile across much of the favored regions for tropical development this time of year.
Invest 95L, currently a surface reflection of an upper-level trough -- the one that was around that sheared TD 27 well before it became Gamma, I believe -- will have a shot in a few days. The pattern is about to become a bit blocky over the central Atlantic, causing this feature to become trapped. Most models are showing some development of the feature as it pinwheels in a clockwise loop -- NE, then south and southwest -- over the next few days, gradually decaying toward the end of the period.
Cyclone phase diagrams from each of the major global models suggest at least some warm-core transition in the low levels over the next few days with some potential growth of that warm core into the upper levels (e.g. completing tropical transition). But, generally coincident with that growth, we get decay over unfavorable surface conditions (waters too cool). If things pan out, we might well see a subtropical cyclone out of it with a fair shot at a tropical cyclone in the next few days. It'll be one to watch into next week, certainly longer than Gamma will be around.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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danielw
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From the 10PM EST Advisory.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005
GAMMA CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT
ALSO CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THUS THE SYSTEM
NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ARE
BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.
bold emphasis added~danielw
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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If 2006 is as bad as 2005 do they use the same Greek letters again or do they start further up? 
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Clark
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They would start with Alpha once again, as far as anyone knows. The possibility of another season next year quite like this season's is pretty remote, however.
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