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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Lee-Delray
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Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Clark]
      #63845 - Mon Nov 21 2005 10:02 AM

That's what they said about 2004 too.

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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Clark]
      #63846 - Mon Nov 21 2005 10:04 AM

95L is on NRL; we may have subtropical storm Delta later today if it continues to develop--it is initialized, still as an invest, at 45 mph and 992 mb

95L


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Clark]
      #63847 - Mon Nov 21 2005 11:13 AM

Quote:

They would start with Alpha once again, as far as anyone knows. The possibility of another season next year quite like this season's is pretty remote, however.


Clark,didn't they say that after 2004?I believe what most of the experts say,10-15 more years of this.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Hurricane Dad
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Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #63848 - Mon Nov 21 2005 11:18 AM

What if one of the Greek storms meet the criteria for name retirement. Has anybody officially considered that?

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Psyber
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Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Clark]
      #63849 - Mon Nov 21 2005 11:36 AM

Quote:

They would start with Alpha once again, as far as anyone knows. The possibility of another season next year quite like this season's is pretty remote, however.




I dunno clark, to quantify that I think you have to look at what is causing the last couple years to be mega-years...global warming. Whether the warming trend is caused by greenhouse gasses or by being on the upturn of the 10,000 year global warm is up to the scientists(I agree with the former as well as the latter)

There is no sign that next year is going to be any cooler and if it follows the trend, the waters are going to be even warmer next year.

My personal thinking is that we not only reached the bar(alphabet), we raised it to a point where you need to have a more credible indexing system of tracking storms. Alpha/Beta/Gamma aren't going to cut it anymore and were only there before because it seemed ludicrous that we were going to need to use them very often.

Perhaps dual named storms are needed to denote how seriously crazy a season was? Alphonse Anderson, Bernadette Beckie etc... Perhaps name them something in the order of A05-2, B05-2. Or even name them Alpha-05, Beta-05...all I know is that it's only a matter of time before a Cat-4/5 Greek alphabeted storm is going to truck ashore. Lets pray it's not next year...


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Hurricane Dad]
      #63850 - Mon Nov 21 2005 11:36 AM

i heard somewhere, possibly on the weather channel, that if a greek name is retired, it will simply be skipped the next time that the greek names are used

example: if Beta is retired, and we have 23 storms again, 22 will be Alpha and 23 will be Gamma


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Rabbit]
      #63851 - Mon Nov 21 2005 12:14 PM

The record amount of stroms in the Pacific Basin was 39 (as per weather channel); let's hope never in the Atlantic.

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Tak
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Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Psyber]
      #63852 - Mon Nov 21 2005 12:20 PM

Before you get reved up on "global warming" go to the 2005 Storm Forum under the topic: Hurricane Politics. Follow HankFranks link to Dr. Gray's testimony.
Then go to http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Responses/emanuel_comments.pdf and http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Responses/webster_comments.pdf. For more of Dr. Gray's observations regarding this topic.


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HanKFranK
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Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Tak]
      #63853 - Mon Nov 21 2005 12:38 PM

yeah, there are some serious questions about just smacking the global warming label on everything bad that happens. folks that make up the tropical weather community generally *don't* subscribe to global warming as the answer for the last couple of years. they aren't really unprecedented either in terms of back to back bad seasons (check 1886-1887, 1932-1933, 1954-1955). factor in that we undoubtedly missed some storms in the official record that far back, and they could easily match the last couple of years' counts. people who blame global warming on every weather disaster have an agenda... which is a whole different can of worms.
was just glancing around the basin, noticed that the little area of disturbed weather that'd been clinging to the colombian coast the last couple of days is seaworthy now, and has a little bit of convection/rotation associated with it. a lot of the region looks to be fairly stable and the shear profile is only mediocre, so i wouldn't expect much of anything. all the same, there it is, looking slightly alive.
95L may be more of the real deal as far as a developed system goes. should loop back to the south back towards the tropics later this week, perhaps losing its frontal profile and developing a warm core. clark explained the process better than i could earlier (he is training to be the authority on ET transition, after all).
gamma's remnant is fairly vigorous... and the post analysis should track the remnant low for a day or two after the official unchristening of the storm.
HF 1738z21november

*don't*, yeah, that's what i meant -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Nov 21 2005 09:02 PM)


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Clark
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Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63854 - Mon Nov 21 2005 02:13 PM

Think HF meant to say that "folks that make up the tropical weather community generally don't subscribe to global warming as the answer for the last couple of years." There are much more likely explanations for the past two seasons than the blanket "global warming" theory -- after all, activity is down in the Pacific basins as a whole (near-normal out west, below normal in the east); global warming isn't a localized phenomenon. The reasoning behind the past two seasons follows from a favorable phase of the so-called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (a reflection of the 30 year cycle Dr. Gray and others are always talking about) coupled with a favorable thermohaline circulation (ocean water/energy transport) across the North Atlantic. We've seen this in the past and we'll see it again in the future; further, there is a big problem in placing the past two years historically in context for all of the reasons HF mentioned. Statistically, a season of 21+ storms is not all that common, no matter the limitations in the dataset, and we just aren't likely to see it again next year. Above average? Sure.

As for lists -- there is no contingency for retiring Greek alphabet-named storms at the NHC, this coming directly from the horses' mouth. If such a situation comes about, they will make their policy then. Until then, we really don't know what'll happen -- because they don't either. The same holds for reusing the list again next year; unless there is a big reason to start with another name than Alpha, they probably won't.


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Psyber
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Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63855 - Mon Nov 21 2005 02:31 PM

I agree hank, but i'm also not one of those people who are quick to UNSMACK the title of human caused global warming on what we've seen are some pretty significant changes in the global climate in the last 20 years. I'm still waiting on the results of the science that proves that one of the biggest causes of climate change ever recorded including sediment dating(short of ice age causing meteor strikes) isn't from a bunch of shortsighted fossil fuel sucking lifeforms...

Even so, like hurricane forcasting, do we wait until 24-48 hours before the actual event is dire before we try to take steps which might impact the possible outcome if the steps are overall beneficial no matter if people are in the direct path? No...because by then it's too late. The science behind human caused global warming makes sense, the only thing up in the air is the actual timeline/scope of what we're physically causing.

Even as an extremely junior meteorologist, i'm terrified to think what our hurricane/tornado seasons will be like if some of the doomsayers predicting net 5-10 degree southern oceanic temperature changes over the next couple decades are right.

I just got a private message complimenting my signature. When did Accuweather predict the end of the season this year? End of October? Sometimes, i think they use the old bearfat in the mason jar for their longterm forcasting...and don't even get me started on this seasons unbridled attacks on the NHC.

How many did they miss? 4 or is it 5 now? Looks like 95L (possible Delta) is spinning up a bit...

i'm not sure what 'accuweather' said. they've got several meteorologists who speak up on such issues, and i can't speak for any of them. it's not a mystery that public and private sector forecasters don't agree on things. neither side is right all of the time. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Nov 21 2005 09:06 PM)


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Katie
Weather Guru


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Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Psyber]
      #63856 - Mon Nov 21 2005 03:28 PM

(off topic post deleted)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Nov 21 2005 08:58 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Psyber]
      #63857 - Mon Nov 21 2005 05:41 PM

Psyber -- no complaints here on your claims about global warming in your most recent post. We know warming is going on, we just don't know our contributions to it all, if any substantial ones. It's when global warming is used to explain everything that occurs in the tropics and elsewhere that the meteorological community goes on the prowl, something quite warranted in my view.

We also don't know a lot about all of the factors involved in our climate system and have only crude approximations for a lot of what goes on. There is sensitivity to the initial conditions, sensitivity to the model parameterizations used, and sensitivity to just about anything you can think of -- as I've learned with just short-term weather modeling, you can create just about anything you want with a computer model. I don't disagree that there's something out there...it's just not the end-all for the entire field and it reflects the sad state of meteorological funding that all money is going into climate change research and not actually advancing the science. (And don't get me started on hurricane modification projects getting $80m in funding from Congress while the Hurricane Research Division continually gets denied for extra funding on top of the ~$5m that barely sustains the complex.)

This is a debate better served for another time and another forum here on the website, though. For now, it's time to start looking toward 95L's way out in the central Atlantic as a fairly substantial subtropical cyclone. Model projections show it completing tropical transition sometime early tomorrow; knowing that the NHC is looking at the progs and watching satellite, it's probably only a matter of time before we have at least a subtropical cyclone on our hands -- Delta.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Clark]
      #63858 - Mon Nov 21 2005 05:53 PM

Clark-

Why a subtropical and not tropical cyclone? If it goes south does it turn into a tropical cyclone?


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63859 - Mon Nov 21 2005 07:56 PM

Quote:

Clark-

Why a subtropical and not tropical cyclone? If it goes south does it turn into a tropical cyclone?




...If I may...
- Subtropical lows are lows that carry both tropical and extra-tropical characteristics; these include a warm core in the lower levels, and cold core aloft.
- Tropical lows are strictly fueled by latent heat release and convective processes and therefore, are warm core from lower levels through the vertical depth of the system.

This system's origin was originally the southern aspect of a mid-latitude trough that bifurcated and pulled away toward the SW, as the trough was lifting out in the vicinity. At the instant of this sudden "cut-off" scenario, it was a cold core system left to spiral down in the vicinity. But the waters there are still mild to warm, but not quite 26C, but close.. Provided conditions are right, you really do not actually have to have the water temperatures be ideally 26C or higher; proven by the event in the far eastern Atlantic in recent times.

It is possible, that given time, it will acquire subtropical characteristics (if it hasn't already) and be subsequently named, because the surround environment is actually pretty good, featuring variable flow at U/A, and the oceanic heat content in the area is at least sufficient for slow development - provided the surrounding environment remains non-hostile. If the system assumes a S drift/motion, its chances would only get better for encountering warmer waters still... But, I haven't actually analyzed the SST out there so much of this latter thinking is based on climatological understanding alone.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Nov 21 2005 08:09 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Global Warming and weather events.. [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63860 - Mon Nov 21 2005 08:35 PM

..The AMO is an SST index (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) with a periodicity of 65-80 years, and a variance defined by an average value of about 1/2 a degree C. This is important because we have since 1990 been, as expected, on the curve toward the + side of neutral - meaning the warm phase has begun. The connection this normal and expected interval of warm SST has to the increase in hurricane frequency/intensities needs to be defined and parameterized first before any conclusions could possibly acquire veracity.

Clark is dead right when he intimates that you cannot assume the current apparent augmentation in both frequencies and intensities are due outrightly to Global Warming - though I have noticed that some media sources are taking more liberties with that assumption, as though it is becoming theory somehow by proxy or something....because for one reason among many, the current activity would likely have taken place in the absence of the last 30 years of Global numbers - or at least, the contrary has to be proven.

Further complicating the matters is that from a purely physical point of view, (and physical processes drive the atmosphere to begin with ) the gradients must be increased in coupled system to actually create the greater potential energy, and subsequent intensity, because potential energy is defined by dipolar gradient. If everyone is hot, that does not mean the gradients are sufficiently increased in the means, supplying storm intensities in general. If those gradients can be defined, this concern is compensated for, but I haven't really seen much evidence to support the gradients them selves being augmented through all of this... All the data that I have seen suggests that the Polar regions are warming just as smartly as the tropical regions, and therefore, the gradient is not any more sufficiently larger than a century ago, when both the tropics and the polar regions were cooler.. In other words, they're increasing in tandem (excuse the pun) in greater degree. Nor does there to appear to be an overwhelming gradient in the vertical in general - maybe some, but there's upper tropospheric indices as well....and around and around we go.

We turn on the television and radio every morning with our cup of joe and a donut and the first thing we hear is a Fox spun news story garnering hysteria over a 11 deaths from a freak November tornado outbreak... Fact of the matter is, there is a climatological precidents for a slight increase in tornado activity in the autumn, just prior to the seasonal flux. And....Holy Moly, a week later we have a +PNA pattern with a -6SD sub-polar vortex defining its core; it is no coincidence that we had these "freak" events last week because it was a super-duper transition period. There are other disasterous autumn twister events however, spanning decades...

Moreover, the hurricane frequency is entirely expected (intensity is an on-going debate), and fits nicely along expectation; which will likely also continue for ~ 1.5 decades (doesn't mean we're going to have 22 this or that every year...just that the atm is teleconnected to being conditioned for higher than normal activity. ) This periodicity in hurricane frequency has a time-span of about 20-30 years.

It is entirely possible that the intensity aspect of this expected frequency shift is because of compounding factors...If the AMO is increasing at its greatest rate during the next 3 decades, and in the first half of that 3 decades, we are also in the positive phase of hurricane frequencies, the latter may feed off the former... and it wouldn't have to be fore Global Warming. Just a supposition..

Now, having said all that...Yes, Global Warming is real.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Nov 21 2005 08:45 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Clarifications [Re: Clark]
      #63862 - Mon Nov 21 2005 09:11 PM

As Clark mentioned, before we get cranked up again on the Global Warming issue, it really belongs in the Hurricane Ask/Tell Forum, not here. Most tropical mets do not subscribe to the global warming theory as a basis for increased tropical cyclone activity - myself included.

Regarding seasonal activity, I doubt that we will see a season as active as 2005 for another 50 years - perhaps another 100 years (and you can remind me of that next year ).

Cheers,
ED


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HanKFranK
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Re: Global Warming and weather events.. [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63865 - Mon Nov 21 2005 09:37 PM

95L: nothing new. it's crested it's nne movement, and a large block to the north should depress its track southward from here. the classification of a subtropical system is about the most inconsistently done duty of the NHC. pretty much every subtropical system in the last few years has been post-analyzed to an earlier point than when it was classified... frequently a tropical system that transitioned from an extratropical one will have a subtropical phase added in for when the satellite analysis Dvorak #s were saying 'subtropical' and the NHC was twiddling its thumbs, mentioning the systems in outlooks, waiting for an unalienable signal that the storm was a tropical cyclone... like an eye. 95L is part of the way there. if it goes the whole way, it'll be interesting to see how the NHC goes about classifying it.
global warming: yes, its real. so is global cooling. we're in an interglacial phase right now. personally i don't care if it gets warmer as long as the result isn't a glacial meltwater slowing of the north atlantic downwelling and that thermohaline conveyor shutdown that was so fakely portrayed on the day after tomorrow. if they're growing corn in northern quebec in 200 years... great. better than having half a mile of ice sitting on chicago, or spruce trees in north florida. twenty thousand years ago, that was the case.
forecast 2006: check over in the forum. i'm putting up an early 2006 prediction page. probably soon ed or i will put up the verification for the fall 2004 and may 2005 predictions for this season that we made for fun... to see how everybody fared with this really outlandishly active season. everyone underpredicted, of course.
HF 0237z22november


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


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Re: Global Warming and weather events.. [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63866 - Mon Nov 21 2005 09:38 PM

(post deleted. Previous post with same content was placed in the Graveyard because the image on the link is over 24 hours old. If the post was associated with the global warming discussion, re-post it in the Hurricane Ask/Tell Forum. Please do not re-post something that has been corrected by a site official.)

Note that the satellite image has a date/time of 21/0000Z - it is currently 22/0300Z, i.e., the image is 27 hours old. Do not repost this image again.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Nov 21 2005 10:10 PM)


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Doombot!
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A little hint.... [Re: ltpat228]
      #63872 - Tue Nov 22 2005 12:40 AM



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