Dawn
Weather Watcher
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Loc: St. Petersburg FL
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I do not think the people in the Tampa Bay area are wishcasting- we have just been so lucky and we are sure that our day is coming that we worry.
Please do not consider any of as wishcasters.
I think all us in this area feel we have been Blessed.
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pincty
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I agree that our day is coming it's just that when all major models have it going way south of Tampa, many still make Tampa predictions. Go back and read the threads....less than 12 hours from landfall there were tons of posts stating that the front wasn't going to make it in time and Tampa would be hit. And every forecast after that kept zeroing in on Naples, Marco, etc. Yet Tampa kept coming up.
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Ron Basso
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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What I find a little interesting is that the 18Z now shows cyclogenesis occuring in the NE GOM off the panhandle and then deepening as a cold core system inland up the Appalachians. This is quite a signicant departure from earlier model runs that had the tropical system absorbed into a coastal Atlantic low which would develop off the FL east coast and become a nor easter. If this pans out, this tells me that the shortwave trough diving down to the south on Monday will be more toward the central GOM rather than eastern GOM - which, may allow whatever evolves from Gamma to move more northward in the eastern GOM rather than eastward across the southern tip. Of course, with the shear predicted and cooler GOM temps, the system would likely transition (if it maintained itself) into a hybrid subtropical storm with all of the bad weather lopsided on its eastern side. Just one model run but the orientation of the trough and its speed will obviously influence Gamma's path. Latest dynamic model runs are focusing on a path though so this run may be out to lunch.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_27.gif
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RJB
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collegemom
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Loc: Central Arkansas
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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Lee-Delray
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I tlooks like the 18Z has changed its mind and moved very far south and weakened the storm. Is this the result of new information or models going crazy?
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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well, i'm one to talk since i didn't think this thing would ever get that far west... but by virtue of it deteriorating and reforming north of honduras the opportunity for it to nip at the u.s. is there. start of the week i was totally against that possibility, but there it is with a forecast track up to florida in a couple of days.
ok, here's the best i can do for now. the system is under some shear as the upper high sheltering it has been displaced to the east. the shear ought to keep it in check unless it starts moving with the shear... i.e., the deep layer flow starts pushing it. like guys are saying, that should happen when the ridging blocking it in the lower troposphere starts to wear down. thing is, we aren't in the late summer or anything.. this is late autumn. the shortwave headed to get it will be trucking, and unless the storm is far enough north/deep enough to catch it and take off.. it'll just get kicked ene and slowly decay under the base of the deep trough forecast in the east next week. the official forecast follows that it will catch that shortwave like the says and come up like a rocket. under that situation the intensity isn't unreasonable.. as these fast movers tend to have a translational component ramping the winds on one semicircle, and slacking them on the other. i.e., this will only be an event if you are east of the center path.
some of the other globals have the nontropical low forecast to come up ahead of or entrain gamma tracking inland now, further west. under such a scenario the storm could come further west and do the dreaded thing that ralph believes will never ever happen... get the tampa bay area. i'm not entirely convinced it will even get the chance to come up... if it's clocking 60-65mph winds tomorrow that'll be more of a likelihood.. but right now it looks like a moderate tropical storm at worst, that may rapidly wash out if it isn't phasing with the storm and the post-trough axis shear gets it.
for now i'll tentatively put the system coming up, but further east and weaker than the official. perhaps a glance of southeast florida. i'm thinking the timetable will be a little staggered and that the intensity will be on the low side. this is sort of a compromise between the aggressive runs earlier today and the not-so-enthused runs of other globals who sort of feed it into the coastal storm set to harrass the east next week.
last time we had a u.s. hit in november was mitch in 1998. gordon '94 before that... kate and keith back in the 80s. if it does hit florida, it'll be the latest hit since keith on november 23, 1988.
HF 0055z19november
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weatherwatcher999
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Southwestern Ontario, Canada.
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wow... 24 named storms... in a year!
I'm surprised this wasn't a TD or TS earlier in the day-the satellite images revealed very high cloud tops and it actually looked like an inland TS (ex. tammy).
The latest sat. images (look at ir4) are really showing it trying to spin up, with higher tops, etc.
Looks like has went without the group in the latest model run... it's gotta make landfall somewhere... whether it belize, the yucatan, cuba, florida, or the bahamas. I don't think it will strengthen to a hurricane-the SST's aren't as warm in the GOM, plus shear, and the cold front....
btw, does anyone think the track looks like a ?
Tough forecast on this one. My take is a short landfall in the yucatan, near miss on west cuba, and extreme southern florida, then it zooms off to no man's land.
Just my take on it.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Related to earlier posts...yes I read them. The Closed Circulation-is not from satellite imagery. It refers to Recon finding winds that 'close off' a low.
Short version. Recon enters the:
NW Quad-wind from NE.
SE Quad-wind from SW.
NE Quad-wind from SE.
SW quad -wind from NW.
That's the short version of a 'closed circulation', and the wind rose points will vary...but you should get a basic idea from the above.
NE........SE
___Ctr___
NW.......SW
very rough example of closed circulation~danielw
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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From:
NWS Key West AFD-430pm EST Friday Nov 18th
.FORECAST...
THE National Hurricane Center FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION INTO A STRONGER TROPICAL STORM...WHILE BEING EVENTUALLY STEERED TOWARD WEST CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO SET UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT OF THIS FORECAST...THE KEYS PUBLIC AND COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS WERE MODIFIED TO INCLUDE
THE IMPACTS OF A PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL STORM NEAR THE REGION DURING MONDAY...WITH EFFECTS STARTING FOR THE WESTERN STRAITS AND MAYBE LOWER KEYS VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE OF COURSE IS LOW IN THE TRACK FOR A NEWLY-HATCHED SYSTEM WHICH IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED.
NWS Miami-241pm EST Friday Nov 18th
THERE IS A POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
DEVELOPING WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM REDEVELOPING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
AT THE PRESENT TIME, THIS SYSTEM WILL AT LEAST MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
OR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE THE SYSTEM GETS NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA. THEN THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH.
NWS Melbourne 215pm EST Friday November 18th
SAT NIGHT...LATEST INDICATING INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE VIGOROUS TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST TO DECREASE AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT MOISTURE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE INCREASE. MODEL POPS ARE 30-40 PERCENT SO HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
TO SCATTERED.
SUN-MON...MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LIFT NORTHEAST...RATHER THAN A MORE CLASSICAL LOW FORMATION ALONG THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. THIS MAY BE AT LEAST PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL ENTITY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW DUE TO THIS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE VERY STRONG...70 KNOTS OR GREATER ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING A LOT OF NORTHWARD PROGRESS WITHOUT BEING STRONGLY SHEARED.
NWS Tampa 137pm EST Friday November 18th
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST THRU THE PERIOD. THE WRN SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH TO INDUCE AN
INVERTED TROF OVER THE ERN GULF BEGINNING SUNDAY. SFC FLOW OVER THE CWA WILL VEER THRU THE PERIOD FROM NNE TONIGHT TO SE BY SUN.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. GUIDANCE POPS JUMP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY SUN.
PREVIOUS FORECAST BEGAN TO INCREASE POPS...AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND BUT STAY AT HIGH END SCT FOR NOW.
(a newer AFD exists...830pm EST, but there are no Tropical mentions.~danielw)
Full AFDs use links:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDEYW&max=51
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL&max=51
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMLB&max=51
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDTBW&version=1&max=51
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The new SHIPS model forecast is indicating Gamma shouldn't go higher than 44kts in the next 5 days.
Current shear is 29kts and is forecast to go above 29kts through the 5 day period. At 18 hours ( 2PM EST on Saturday) Shear is forecast to increase to 32kts and the Max Wind Velocity in the storm is forecast to begin decreasing at that time.
Gamma is forecast to maintain Tropical Storm force winds of 39kts through to the 36 hour mark (Sunday Morning-6 AM EST).
This forecast is produced every 6 hours and is subject to change.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Between the SHIPS & (18z) things are looking better for South Florida!?!
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Looks like it is continuing to get better organized, to me. I don't think there will be another recon until tomorrow, but I suspect it will be stronger the next time a plane goes in. There is still shear, though. The biggest thing I can see from the IR loop is the movement - or rather, the lack of movement. Gamma appears to be sitting still. Can we say deja vu?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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laxpimpj
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This might sound like a stupid question, and I realize that any answer I get is based on pure speculation... regardless...
I am at the University of Miami, we have missed classes three times this year because of tropical systems, if gamma does follow through, it could be the fourth. I have a flight scheduled for Tuesday of next week, but I have a feeling I may end up getting stuck here in Miami, and not get to see my family for thansgiving.....
As far as my question goes.... If this thing does end up just being a TS, do you still thing they would cancel classes for monday.... I men they have to right? TS's are still dangerous.... I need to decide tonight whether or not to change my flight to sunday or not.... The reason it is important is because I have a final on Monday...
erm, what should I do?
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Major7
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
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Yes. The track does seem to be a little -ish. In my classroom, we tracked . Can't wait to bring the latest spaghetti models in.
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My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
classes for monday.... I men they have to right? TS's are still dangerous.... I need to decide tonight whether or not to change my flight to sunday or not.... The reason it is important is because I have a final on Monday...
erm, what should I do?
Talk to the professor. Request to take the final early, or after the storm is over.
Update: 10pm EST advisory is out. Forecast has landfall right over the extreme southern tip of the peninsula on Monday. Winds are still 45mph currently.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Fri Nov 18 2005 09:51 PM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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You probably won't be the only one with the request. Given the weather...both tropical and arctic that is forecast to greet us next week.
Univ of Miami. Hurricanes.. right!
edit: Recon is tasked for a 0145Z departure tonight. That was a little over an hour ago. I haven't received any position reports as of now. They may have delayed the flight...or they haven't reported airborne yet.
I stand corrected. I didn't check the TCPOD date.
Recon is tasked with 19/18Z, 20/00Z, 20/06Z and 20/12Z fixes. They are scheduled to take off at 1345Z Saturday ( 845AM EST ).
Edited by danielw (Fri Nov 18 2005 10:13 PM)
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: UK
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Gamma's moved 13 miles to the west in the last six hours...hmm, I think it has ideas of lurking a bit longer than everyone expects, just like .
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Quote:
Quote:
Wow some, like, ‘reverse wishcasting’ going on here.
Anywho… a little proviso on the indicating the cyclone is a tad stronger, which sorta' goes against the waning satellite appearance :
...SHORTLY BEFORE 500 PM EST... 2200Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH.
EDIT: sheesh, margie (to post below)... a little anger there. Really, disallowing its namesake by technicality (note you are not absolutly positive that there is not a closed center) would not be good, as it is going to affect the warning area all the same. 
No wishcasting is to say its going to Tampa when all Models and the say something different.
Only the has it making it to Florida as a storm and im not sold on this storm.....When the Met on TV says that a squall Line coming down with a front Monday concerns him more i tend to go along with him since he has been good all season.
with the shear and the water temps and the broad center i don't see this doing much PER the other Models besides the and NOT wishcasting as that term is saved for the guys who yell Tampa when they have nothing to support it.
In this case we have stuff to support it.
Im not #1 trolling i was only talking to the person who said there was reverse wishcasting and i was not.
As for Mark no need to reply to the tampa post as its not coming here and trust me when a storm is heading this way i am always ready and i would not try and wish it away but this storm is so over done its insane.
I guess with all the flack they took over they are not getting caught with there pants down but trust me when i say this is really not going to be a event for anyone besides some rain.
The weather patterns are not letting this go north and if it even makes it to miami ill be suprized.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Nov 19 2005 09:19 AM)
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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I was in school in Tampa when TS Keith hit before Thanksgiving in 1988. First time I had ever gone through a storm that was close to hurricane (70 mph winds). Landfall was near Sarasota.
That was the year that Gilbert went well south of us here and we prayed very hard it would.
Tonight the winds here are brisk out of the northeast at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. It wasn't this windy during the day. What gives?
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Probably due to the pressure gradient between Gamma and the cold front over the Panhandle.
The earlier AFDs mentioned the possibility (probability?) of the winds increasing tomorrow and Sunday.
The combination of the two systems in close proximity should give some strong breezes over the southern half of the Peninsula at least.
A few post back. I posted links to the Peninsula NWS office's Discussions. The update these every 6 hours or so. More often when the weather is changing.
There was mention of Small Craft Advisories in at least one of the Discussions.
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