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MikeCAdministrator
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Hurricane Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic
      #64061 - Tue Nov 29 2005 10:25 AM

December 19th Update
All remains quiet in the Atlantic basin, as we'd expect for the month of December. Upper-level lows continue to try to cut off and build down to the surface in the subtropical north Atlantic but are having less and less success as time goes by, the climate shifts more toward winter, and the pattern that favored their development gradually breaks down. It's likely that we're done for the rest of the tropical season, but we hope that you'll stick around for the winter season here at the CFHC. The 2006 prediction thread is still open in the Storm Forum and Clark's ongoing Season-in-Review (with July and August posted just today) will be released through the rest of this month and into early January. If not, we hope you have a Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays!

December 10 Update
Epsilon was quickly stripped down to nothing on December 7-8, with yesterday marking the first day since the second week of November that there wasn't a tropical cyclone or an imminent one in the basin. We've had some long-lived systems for this late in the year... to go that long with just three storms.
Anyhow, this thread can carry us to the end of the year, provided that we don't have more formations. Models are currently showing another deep layer low in the eastern Atlantic, with some evidence of core warming. The signature doesn't last as long as those of Delta or Epsilon did, nor does it traverse quite as warm of waters. Still, the possibility of a flash-in-the-pan system is still present. GFS keeps the pattern producing cut-off storms out there right through the forecast period, showing another later in the month. So, there is a chance we'll need a new thread... but until then we can just coast.

Winter is creeping in, and the Christmas season is close as well. Enjoy the long awaited repreive, everyone... assuming it holds up.
HF

December 4 Update
Epsilon is still a hurricane, and a solid category 1 at that. Two days ago the forecast was for the storm to be coming apart and losing tropical characteristics right now, but it has relentlessly continued maintaining definition. Epsilon has a large eye and solid convective ring--it's the best-looking hurricane we've seen since Beta. Go read Avila's 10 A.M.. discussion if you want a laugh, because the NHC guys don't get it either.
Epsilon should begin to curve south and weaken dramatically over the next couple of days, and there is no reason why this forecast shouldn't verify. We ought to be done with the system around Tuesday, but the remnant low could be wandering around and bothering no one.

December 2 Update
Epsilon has become a very rare December Hurricane, still not affecting land areas.

See Clark's blog below for a season wrap-up discussion. The 2005 season affected many of us, and will be remembered, along with 2004, as a situation we would never want to see a repeat of.

November 30 Update
Today is the final day of the Official 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which has broken so many records I've nearly lost count.

29 tracked systems, 26 named storms, 13 Hurricanes, 7 Major Hurricanes, and 3 category 5 hurricanes. one of which was the most destructive storm on record to make landfall in the United States (Katrina).

Records were set for the lowest pressure recorded in the Atlantic, most storms in July, most storms overall, first-ever use of the Greek alphabet for naming storms, and most category 5 hurricanes in a season. There are more too I'm forgetting.

Eplison, however, is nearly a hurricane -- another record -- and moving away from land.

Original Update
The 26th Named storm of the season has formed in the Central Atlantic. This year is unreal, and I'd rather it be over now.

However it is not, and this tropical storm is called Epsilon, the 5th Greek named storm of the year.

It is no threat to land areas, and is borderline tropical now.

We'll be tracking Epsilon, hopefully the last storm of 2005.

Epsilon (from Skeetobite)
Click for full size:

Animated Model Graphic (Skeetobite)
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of TS Epsilon - Static Image
CIMSS TS Epsilon Page

Edited by Clark (Mon Dec 19 2005 05:17 PM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #64063 - Tue Nov 29 2005 10:40 AM

stewart was on duty, and after watching delta take forever to get upgraded, i guess he was less hesitant to pull the trigger. the storm still has a large windfield and could have just as easily been tagged subtropical. there is some reference to its subtropical nature in the discussion, and that's what i would have gone with. either way, it's now tropical storm number 26 of the atlantic hurricane season. 2005 is all about overkill, it seems.
for those of you speaking of running out of greek names, i wouldn't worry. there are nineteen more, and only one month to go before the year is out. your chances of winning the lottery and discovering a new planet in the next week are somewhat better.
HF 1540z29november


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic *DELETED* [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64064 - Tue Nov 29 2005 10:44 AM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Nov 29 2005 01:25 PM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #64066 - Tue Nov 29 2005 10:55 AM

Remnants of Delta are now moving inland over Morocco:

Source: Meteorlogical Department of France / http://www.meteofrance.com/FR/mer/bulGLarge.jsp?LIEUID=METAREAII
Quote:


EX-TROPICAL STORM DELTA 993 31N15W BY 29/00 UTC MOVING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD TO INLAND MOROCCO, EXPECTED 995 31N07W BY 29/12 UTC, THEN
1000 32N04W BY 30/00 UTC.




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Margie
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Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic [Re: Random Chaos]
      #64067 - Tue Nov 29 2005 11:02 AM

What I don't understand is why it is not designated subtropical rather than tropical...as it fits the definition, with some elements of tropical systems (some banding convection close to the center, a little bit of outflow...as noted by the cirrus transverse banding to the west, a circular LLC), clearly it is not a completely tropical system. Even the NHC discussion (Stewart! happy dance) says:

ALTHOUGH A BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS APPEAR TO [BE] MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF SLOW DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES.

Sorry to continue to be confused about this. Does the NHC have a designation such that they could say "Subtropical Storm Epsilon," or do they have to designate it as TS and note that it is subtropical in the discussions? Is that what they are doing?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Doombot!
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Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic [Re: Margie]
      #64068 - Tue Nov 29 2005 11:30 AM


It looks like this will be the 4th of 5 years with a named system in Decemeber (2001, 2003, 2004, 2005).

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Nov 29 2005 09:33 PM)


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Steve H1
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Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic [Re: Margie]
      #64069 - Tue Nov 29 2005 11:53 AM

No. Tropical is Tropical. If it was Subtropical they would call it Subtropical Storm Epsilon. IMO it is Tropical. The Subtropical nonsense is kind of overkill to me. Don't think my roof cares if its sub or not.

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Margie
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Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic [Re: Steve H1]
      #64070 - Tue Nov 29 2005 12:11 PM

Quote:

No. Tropical is Tropical. IMO it is Tropical.



Can you objectively explain why so that I'll understand. These are the pieces that are missing for me: 1) no way without recon to see banding and how well it has wrapped around the center, 2) not enough data to judge the temps, especially vertically, is it warm core, is it vertical or tilted (and the question of vertical was really was more of a question with Delta, at times, rather than with Epsilon right at this moment), and 3) is there a wind gradient towards the center, or just a large spread-out windfield.

Quote:

If it was Subtropical they would call it Subtropical Storm Epsilon.


Is this for certain? Has NHC ever used that designation in the past?

Quote:

The Subtropical nonsense is kind of overkill to me.



See now that doesn't work for me now that I've been trying for over a week to understand subtropical vs tropical. There is clearly a state of transition between the cut-off low and conversion to full tropical storm, i.e.subtopical, a valid state. One of the things I'm wondering about is that it does not seem to be all one-directional. Seems like making the call to tropical too soon in this type of environment (end of season mid-ATL, soon to be extratrop in any case), is problematic because the storm still transitions back and forth between subtropical and tropical, or doesn't ever quite make it to tropical (banding and convection at the eye fall apart, comes back). Is that a wrong assumption? During this time, is it staying warm core? Or does that vascillate as well?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Random Chaos
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Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic [Re: Margie]
      #64071 - Tue Nov 29 2005 12:15 PM

Quote:


Quote:

If it was Subtropical they would call it Subtropical Storm Epsilon.


Is this for certain? Has NHC ever used that designation in the past?





Yes, NHC has used Subtropical in the past.


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weatherwatcher999
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Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic [Re: Random Chaos]
      #64072 - Tue Nov 29 2005 12:31 PM

subtropical, tropical... whatever, it's still number 26

I am flabbergasted to look into NHC and see yet another named storm!-possibly a december hurricane???-no, that doesn't sound right...

btw, i think delta did reach hurricane strength, and this one has a fair chance, if it gets moving...


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Random Chaos
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Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic [Re: weatherwatcher999]
      #64073 - Tue Nov 29 2005 01:06 PM

Delta, from BBC:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4482384.stm (free)

Quote:

Tropical storm batters Canaries

A tropical storm has lashed the Canary Islands, killing at least seven people and leaving a trail of destruction.

Many people are still without electricity, while some roads have been blocked by fallen trees and landslides.

At least six African migrants drowned when waves engulfed their makeshift boat. A man also died after being blown off his roof on Fuerteventura.

Winds gusted at up to 200 km/h (124 miles per hour) in parts of Tenerife, disrupting public services.

*snip*




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HanKFranK
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delta in the canaries [Re: Random Chaos]
      #64075 - Tue Nov 29 2005 02:00 PM

the hook i got (from jeff masters blog) was sustained winds to 71mph, gusts in the 80s in tenerife... and a gust to 94mph in la palma. this stuff paired with the 60kt ship report northwest of the center yesterday does suggest the storm was a hurricane and was being operationally underrated. at times late last week it also had a banding eye structure, even though it was under modest shear and appeared to be vertically tilted at other times. it actually looks like epsilon will be the only one of the 'greek storms' to not affect land in some way, as alpha and gamma induced flood casualties in the caribbean, and beta hit nicaragua as a solid hurricane though luckily no one was killed. post-tropical delta is probably one of the worst storms of record in those islands--they tend to be dominated by subtropical high pressure and fair weather most of the time.
i sort of agree with margie on the whole subtropical classification thing. it isn't consistently used--at least, not like it was in the 1970s, though several of those systems would likely be considered tropical today. having a consistent policy on how these things are classified, as well as remaining consistent with the historic record... is pretty tough, apparently.
HF 1900z29november


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typhoon_tip
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Re: delta in the canaries [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64076 - Tue Nov 29 2005 02:16 PM Attachment (822 downloads)

HF-
Hi.... You understand your -NAO... We have been vying for that during the past 10 days, pulsing in and out of representation in the verification - poorly modeled along the way - but never the less, having that be the case... In any event, the -NAO usually has a corresponding negative height anomaly situated anywhere from the Azores to the current area of rotation, in which Epsilon is apparently embedded..

I just wanted to state... It is utterly extraordinary that we are seeing a counter part negative anomaly, normally associated with an NAO, and also one that is climatologically a cold core latitudinally underpinning feature, be expressing as a hybrid generator..

It must purely be a function of very strong positive SST anomalies and exceptional +Tripole state. By the way, the SSTs around Greenland/above 50N in the Atlantic Basin are approaching terrifying +anomalies as they are nearing 5C in some areas where we normally see subduction water chimneys from very cold arctic SST interfacing with intermediate GS waters... That is absolutely....incredible the magnitude of that departure. ....Additionally, it makes one wonder how warm the northern Atlantic can become before some of those conveyor breakdown theories may be tested!

understand nao? i know what it is, but can't do much more than read it. it does all sorts of strange things. as for epsilon and delta, i thought that hybrids out there usually formed during these blocking events, when the nao- low was displaced further south than normal. i dunno.. in a hyper active year where the atlantic is trying to cough up as much energy to the higher latitudes as possible, it just makes sense that the atmospheric circulation is primed to send surges of energy (or tropical cyclones, if it pleases) up every so often. noted that surge into the gulf during the last few days, and the recent trend for cold air surges into the east to be blunted or advance slowly against the tendency for air masses near the atlantic to stay or return quickly if repulsed. winter is going to try to break that down... i've got a hunch that a progressive march of polar air masses is going to start hammering away at the east this winter, trying to equalize the anomalous warmth in the atlantic. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Nov 29 2005 06:05 PM)


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Frog
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Re: delta in the canaries [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64078 - Tue Nov 29 2005 02:26 PM

Hello you all !

I"ve been "following" the hurricane season since Katrina (sadly, I have to own up that, sometimes, it takes a big catastrophe for people to get focused on something). I found this site while looking for info on Katrina.

I decided to log in when I saw that the NHC was discontinuing advisories because Delta had become extratropical. Now I read a post saying that it reached 124 mph in the canaries. That is bigger than Beta... Can you explain me why has is not been upgraded to hurricane even if it is extratropical ?

Thanks in advance

The Frog

--------------------
Nature Rules !!!
"... and crawling on the Planet's face... some insects, called the Human Race... Lost in Time, Lost in Space... and Meaning"
(The Rocky Horror Picture Show, Final Scene)


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Random Chaos
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Re: delta in the canaries [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64079 - Tue Nov 29 2005 02:41 PM

Frog, NHC discontinued advisories becuase they transfered it to France's metoerology department which handles weather in the waters off Africa (why they didn't do that for Vince I don't know...).

Here's the quote from the last Delta discussion:
Quote:


THIS WILL BE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON DELTA BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN METEO-FRANCE ATLANTIQUE
METAREA-II MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW...
AND IN MARINE BULLETINS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FONT50 LFPW.





And if you look at France's site, you can see the info (in English): http://www.meteofrance.com/FR/mer/bulGLarge.jsp?LIEUID=METAREAII

--

Typhoon_Tip, what's your source for SST anomalies? NHC's model doesn't got that far north.


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typhoon_tip
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Re: delta in the canaries [Re: Random Chaos]
      #64080 - Tue Nov 29 2005 03:26 PM

Quote:



Typhoon_Tip, what's your source for SST anomalies? NHC's model doesn't got that far north.




http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/EPS.html


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Margie
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Re: delta in the canaries [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64081 - Tue Nov 29 2005 04:23 PM

Floater is on Epsilon now.

I was wondering if the high level winds are, basically, westerlies (from the SW), then why am I seeing the area south of Epsilon where cloud tops are trailing to the W?

I was wondering could this be the dissipating low that was just south of it, because it didn't seem like outflow, except just immediately south of the center.

Also, it seems like the convection around the center has died off a bit. But it looks like Epsilon is going to be in an area of decreased shear for awhile, so that it'll build up some steam again overnight.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Rich B
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Re: delta in the canaries [Re: Margie]
      #64082 - Tue Nov 29 2005 04:46 PM

Hi guys,
the 94 mph gust recorded in La Palma, Canary Islands, associated with Delta is probably not that representative. From what i can gather it was recorded at the La Palma airport which sits to the east of high ground. The winds were at the time blowing from west to east, and therefore the local environment could well have played some part in this unusually high gust. General gusts over the Canaries were somewhat less.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Clark
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Re: delta in the canaries [Re: Frog]
      #64085 - Tue Nov 29 2005 06:39 PM

To answer Margie's question: the distinction, at times, can be quite subjective. That's likely what happened here. We're trying to make it more objective, but when model resolution and data availability isn't enough to complete the task, a small subjective factor is introduced. That's probably what we're seeing here.

To answer Frog's question: they discontinued advisories as it was no longer a tropical system. Non-tropical systems can produce high winds -- as people along the Washington and Oregon coastlines have seen the past few days -- even to hurricane force, yet have no characteristics of tropical systems. Delta had transitioned into such a storm, thus the handoff by the NHC.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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danielwAdministrator
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Is it Over? [Re: Clark]
      #64086 - Tue Nov 29 2005 06:59 PM

T minus 24 hours and counting.
The Official 2005 Hurricane Season will be over!
I had heard mention of the "Epsilon" area of concern yesterday. Now Epsilon is a named storm.

On a side note. NBC Nightly News was live from New Orleans tonight... 3 Months after Katrina.


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