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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
A Reminder [Re: MikeC]
      #64091 - Tue Nov 29 2005 09:46 PM

Although this remarkable season is finally nearing an end, the site rules still apply. Please stay on-topic and post your items in the appropriate Forums.
Thanks,
ED


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Frog
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: France
Re: Is it Over? [Re: danielw]
      #64093 - Wed Nov 30 2005 05:02 AM

In 2003 there were Peter and Odette in december. I think the counting is not over yet. I have the feeling that the late season storms and hurricanes have a tendency to go east instead of west at the beginning of the season... If so, is there a meteorological reason for this.

--------------------
Nature Rules !!!
"... and crawling on the Planet's face... some insects, called the Human Race... Lost in Time, Lost in Space... and Meaning"
(The Rocky Horror Picture Show, Final Scene)


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #64094 - Wed Nov 30 2005 05:27 AM

I am curious - and maybe this isn't the right forum and if it isn't I'm sure one of our great admins will move this for me. Anyway - does anyone think there is or will be discussion on extending the hurricane season dates? Should hurricane season end December 15th or 31st? Should it start earlier? I would think a consistant "pre-season" storm(s) or consistant "post season" storm(s) would lead to extending the dates. We know mother nature sure doesn't listen to our seasons...maybe we need to consider listening a bit to hers?

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #64095 - Wed Nov 30 2005 07:29 AM

The sun-sentinel.com has an interesting article on this season (so far). It's a good read.

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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic [Re: Domino]
      #64096 - Wed Nov 30 2005 09:47 AM

We know mother nature sure doesn't listen to our seasons...maybe we need to consider listening a bit to hers?


LOL...Mother Nature will always do her own thing no matter what time of year.
It's time to cease attempting to control the uncontrolable....

well, considering that this will only be the ninth out of 163 storms since 1995 that didn't exist entirely within the season, i'd say the idea of a hurricane season still applies. i do wish congress would listen to you about controlling the uncontrollable, as they've recently added more money to the 'storm modification' budget than to the NHC's budget. that's our elected officials for ya. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Nov 30 2005 04:09 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: A Reminder [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #64099 - Wed Nov 30 2005 10:34 AM

The ambiguity with the naming convention continues. From this morning's NHC discussion, "THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE MORE TROPICAL ON SATELLITE," and speculation from Jeff Master's blog: "Epsilon is really a hybrid between a tropical storm and a regular extratropical storm, but its winds are nevertheless of tropical storm strength. Both Delta and Epsilon are more properly termed 'subtropical' storms, but I guess the Hurricane Center has stopped calling storm 'subtropical' to avoid confusion."

Admin Note: The gentleman is incorrect - NHC still uses the 'Subtropical' designation. A recent example is STD 22 - this year - in October.

Epsilon improved a little overnight. A 91H scan from early this morning showed convection curving around over 50% of the broad center, but Epsilon is still under a cyclonic flow in the upper atmosphere. It is hard for me to tell if what I am seeing on the visual is outflow. Convection remains organized within a fairly symmetric circular area fairly close to the center, so at this point Epsilon looks more tropical than Delta ever did, but it seems to be broadening rather than tightening up, and not so connected to the LLC, which can be seen through the large open center.

* * * * *

Just read the 10am. Should have looked more carefully before posting. Can clearly see on both the visual and especially on the wv loop, dry air coming right into the center and then reducing the moisture in all of the convection. From the NHC discussion, "DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER IN WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY."

It looks like there isn't much intensification in the near future: "GIVEN THAT EPSILON IS LOCATED OVER MARGINAL SSTS OF 23-24C AND THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS... ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING OCCURS. HOWEVER ...EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT extratropical STORM SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS AS IT GETS A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM THE APPROACHING U.S. DEEP-LAYER TROUGH."


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: A Reminder [Re: Margie]
      #64100 - Wed Nov 30 2005 02:37 PM

I'm seeing something that I don't understand. The cloud tops or just below the tops around Epsilon are being sheared in a circular direction but it isn't outflow and it isn't shear. Is it because Epsilon is under a larger cyclonic motion, but moving faster underneath?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: A Reminder [Re: Margie]
      #64101 - Wed Nov 30 2005 02:45 PM

Glad to see this historic season "officially" come to a close today, though we still have epsilon spinning in the middle of the Atlantic.
After being directly affected by Katrina & Wilma(roof damage), i'm ready for the 2006 season to be quiet or at least normal as far as the numbers of storms developing, though my hunch is that it will probably be above active again.
See you all in 2006!

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: Dr. Gs forecast [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #64102 - Wed Nov 30 2005 03:51 PM

Speaking of which, isn't it out tomorrow...or is it the 6th??

MM


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: A Reminder [Re: Margie]
      #64103 - Wed Nov 30 2005 04:22 PM

It's part of a large cyclonic gyre associated with Epsilon. It still has some extratropical/subtropical features associated with it -- well, largely in its environment -- thus the pattern that you are seeing.

Of note, the trough that is forecast to capture Epsilon and accelerate it toward the east is projected to be of negative tilt -- meaning that it tilts back toward the west with increasing latitude -- as it slides over the Canadian Maritime region in a few days. I wouldn't be surprised to see Epsilon slide a bit further north (of east) or move a bit slower than forecast if that evolution holds. I'm discounting some model runs that have been taking it NW into the Canadian Maritimes on the east side of that trough, but wouldn't be surprised to see it move a tick further north than expected down the line. Largely, the impacts of such a track would only be to shipping interests.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Dr. Gs forecast [Re: MapMaster]
      #64104 - Wed Nov 30 2005 04:34 PM

D Day is December 6th for next year's prediction

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: A Reminder [Re: Clark]
      #64105 - Wed Nov 30 2005 06:17 PM

Thanks much for answering my question.

Well it looks like even though convection is increasing, dry air is once again eating into the circulation, big time.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
epsilon lookin' good [Re: Margie]
      #64106 - Wed Nov 30 2005 06:24 PM

structurally i'd have to say epsilon is likely a hurricane. it doesn't have the extensive deep convection of a low latitude tropical system, but there's a slightly better internal structure... clear circular banding and a fairly large eye... than delta ever had while it was looking good late last week. it doesn't have very good t-ratings, but those tend to underdo sheared or hybrid systems, and this is definitely one of the latter.
got a hunch that delta will be post analyzed as a hurricane. epsilon has a good shot at being operationally upgraded into one during the next couple of forecast cycles, i'd also say.
the season ends at 7pm eastern, if you go by GMT. epsilon thinks it's still on, apparently.
HF 2324z30november
well, near 1 pm on Thursday and it hasn't made it. but then, a few days ago i thought the models had to be overdoing it and that it wouldn't form. been on both sides of wrong on this one... -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Dec 01 2005 12:54 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: epsilon lookin' good [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64109 - Wed Nov 30 2005 08:17 PM

Quote:

structurally i'd have to say epsilon is likely a hurricane.



Well, sure...I noted the convection has increased, and the 4pm advis says, "JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS NEEDED TO MAKE EPSILON A HURRICANE." But dry air has eaten its way around, almost to the very wide center, and that normally has a negative effect on tropical storm organization. Is that not so important with this type of storm?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: epsilon lookin' good [Re: Margie]
      #64111 - Wed Nov 30 2005 11:56 PM

I am glad that this hurricane "season" is over. How much did we learn this year? A lot...especially from Katrina. Can you (we) believe that yesterday was the 3 month anniversary of Katrina? Watching it unfold again on TV was so very sad...but the human spirit in this country remains alive and well.
As for Epsilon, may I say a last "farewell" to that storm...uh,, actually I didn't even know it existed until a couple of days ago.
Anyway..thanks for all the things you have taught me. I'm just glad there is a place I can come to when storms approach to learn things and help others learn, too.
I'll be keeping a close eye on the winter weather, as I think we are in for a heck of a wintery season.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Dr. Gs forecast [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #64112 - Thu Dec 01 2005 12:00 AM

Let's hope he has will lower his expectations for next year's season...I'm almost afraid to look!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: epsilon lookin' good [Re: Colleen A.]
      #64115 - Thu Dec 01 2005 12:16 PM

Well Epsilon lost some ground and then gained it right back this morning, again. Only today it'll be moving northeast instead of southwest, but otherwise another wait to see it if makes it to hurricane strength.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 992
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Dr. Gs forecast [Re: Colleen A.]
      #64116 - Thu Dec 01 2005 01:10 PM

Deleted what I had already written! So try again:
Tropical Storm Risk (TRO.com) the British group which services the insurance industry, and which was very accurate in their August update, also issues their report on the 5th, I think. Pay attention to that one too.

Drudge Report today had an urgent article about the receding Gulf Stream and it potential effects on Great Britain. That would be a good topic to discuss in a forum, as the Global Warmers are all over this. (ironically it will cool things off if true).

Any chance that 1935 actually had 22+ storms? After all who would know? There was no satellite system from which things like Delta and Episilon could be seen more or less quantified.

Inquiring mind(s) want to know.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Thu Dec 01 2005 01:12 PM)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Dr. Gs forecast [Re: doug]
      #64117 - Thu Dec 01 2005 01:54 PM

There has been and still is conversation on how accurate the amount of storms there were each year prior to satellites. Also, bear in mind that they have only been tracking these storms for 150 years, there were billions of years history before that.

Just food for thought.


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: Circulation [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #64122 - Thu Dec 01 2005 06:06 PM

3.87 N, 47.10 weat at @1800 12/1....very low, but if it gains latitude... some very fierce convection about to skim north coast of S. America...-80 tops or colder just n of the 'center'...what's up with this?

MM


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