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Bay of Campeche area now being tracked as Invest 92L. 40% chance for development, likely to be a rain event, with most of it on the east.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 227 (Zeta) , Major: 290 (Laura) Florida - Any: 976 (Michael) Major: 976 (Michael)
 


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


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Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I? [Re: Margie]
      #64210 - Wed Dec 07 2005 01:43 PM

I thought Ep had grabbed the ring on longest Dec hurricane...thanks for the confirm.

Well, looks like EP is about to bite it,as HF put it!:) He is still trying to generate some convection on his east side (which was the weak side for a while). Interesting that the HF (that is Hurricane Force, not the "other'"HF!) winds are all on the north side (rear) of the storm...we have a had a few that were stronger on that side this yr.

I see the NW upper winds impinging on his outflow too...but, either he will fade slowly and maybe come back as he moves over warmer and warmer waters...or go out like light. We will see.

MM


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I? In our dreams?... [Re: MapMaster]
      #64211 - Wed Dec 07 2005 02:46 PM

What if Epsilon is going to take a path slightly to the east of the forecast track, perhaps even due south, or SSE? It appears to be possible...and this will allow a little strengthening.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Clark
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Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I? [Re: MapMaster]
      #64215 - Wed Dec 07 2005 03:45 PM

The next 12 hours will be critical to whether Epsilon bites the dust or continues onward. The effects of some shear and drier air are being felt on the western half of the storm, though an eye feature and persistent moderately deep convection are still evident on satellite imagery. The trough has approached a bit closer to the storm but appears to have halted its forward progress. Some of the models are showing it fracturing, with a cutoff low sliding toward the Canaries (what HF mentioned), but it remains to be seen if this happens or if the trough just lifts out. Nevertheless, Epsilon is stuck just south of an ever-narrowing ridge axis and continuing SW as a result. If the ridge holds, Epsilon should keep going. That's not the forecast right now, but we'll know by sunrise tomorrow whether or not Epsilon will defy the odds yet again.

And, just as an administrative note -- if you have a concern with another poster, please keep it off of the boards and utilize the private message feature available on the website. Thanks!

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MapMaster
Weather Guru


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Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I? [Re: Clark]
      #64216 - Wed Dec 07 2005 04:15 PM

Old Eppy...now I know! It is a CAT I, therefore as CAT, he has seven lives.

Well, he's used up most of them but right after my post I saw him coming back..still hanging tough.

Looks like he is going to exceed the longest lived Dec hurricane season by a wide margin...just like the rest of the season!

MM


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HanKFranK
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...going.... [Re: MapMaster]
      #64217 - Wed Dec 07 2005 04:47 PM

maybe the NHC is dog-tired of tracking storms and felt like giving the backup boys a whirl. hpc did the 21z discussion.... and i'm thinking they erred just a little high.
the storm's symmetry and convection has deteriorated to a point not seen since its inception in late november... it's obviously starting to come apart now (finally). if it was my job (which it never will be) to tag an intensity i would have gone with 60kt... just under the 65kt it's been getting for the last 24hr or so with a much better signature. i mean... the forecaster admitted that the t-numbers were concentrated just below 4.0... and yeah i know this goes against the logic i have that t-numbers underrate hybrid systems... but that is more of a problem when they're in formative phases, not so much when they're winding down. the semicircle of the storm northwest of the eye is peeling off, the eye structure has elongated and essentially closed. from here the surface center will start trailing the convective burst which should keep stuck on the southeastern side... probably dragging the core of the storm on an eastward-bending path as shown in the official.

later on... probably late tomorrow or early friday... the center ought to decouple and slow to a crawl as shown in the official. when things start going bad for a late season hurricane they can fold up pretty quickly.... this one ought to be done some time friday, i'm thinking. remnant low should still be apparent through about early sunday. i don't buy the GFDL baroclinic-regeneration scenario.... think we're done in about 48.

now, as for the next cut-off low shown out there early next week.. no real change there either. it's persisting in the models that like it, but there isn't a uniform picture of its existence or longevity yet. i'm not biting yet.

HF 2147z07december (PH 64)

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Dec 07 2005 08:58 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: ...going.... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64218 - Wed Dec 07 2005 04:57 PM

Yeah I went back and looked and just figured it out.

What I thought was southward movement wasn't that at all...it was the convection suddenly being shoved SSE, by a lot of shear, right off of the LLC. If you look now it is vertically tilted to the SSE a bit, and on the water vapor, no moisture left on the NW side at all, no appreciable outflow anywhere, the LLC is exposed there.

I saw the buildup of convection again, and thought it was building back up again, but if I had checked the wv, or looked more closely at the IR, I would have seen how completely trashed the structure of the storm is at this point.

* * * * * * *
The existing IR loop is kind of cool...1715Z is the last time you can see the center of the LLC in the eye of the convection, and then by the end of the loop (2245Z) the center of the LLC is completely exposed. If you track the path of the LLC during those frames, it is SW true -- 225 deg. It took five and a half hours.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Wed Dec 07 2005 06:17 PM)


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HanKFranK
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oddball watch [Re: Margie]
      #64220 - Thu Dec 08 2005 01:04 AM

now that epsilon is on its definitive slide... we should be going into hibernation. but since it's 2005, take another look around and... yeah, it figures:
00z GFS is showing a clear warm core evolution (suggested before, but very apparent in the latest run) with the low forecast to entrench and begin backing westward under the persistent blocking high in the northeast atlantic. the low should disengage from the westerlies this weekend and be somewhere south of the azores by midweek, as the deep cyclonic 'incubator' (as tip called it recently) would be sheltering whatever sort of tropical entity might try to stew up in there.
anyhow, if theres to be a zeta, that'll probably be it. that's what the dutch call 'veeerd'.
HF 0604z08december


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Early Morning Watch [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64221 - Thu Dec 08 2005 04:58 AM

Going...Going...

Epsilon is nearing Tropical Depression status...finally.
NHC has reduced the Intensity to 35kts. As the LLC (low level center), is completely exposed...per the 4 AM EST Discussion.

Last two sentences from the 4 AM Discussion.
"SEVERAL MODELS FORECAST A NEW extratropical LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER IT ABSORBS EPSILON... BUT THAT WOULD HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF HAPPENING EVEN WITHOUT THE REMANTS OF EPSILON."

So it's nearly over... the 2005 Season, that is.~danielw


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Re: Early Morning Watch [Re: danielw]
      #64222 - Thu Dec 08 2005 10:24 AM

Poof!, there goes Epsilon into the great beyond, finally.

Interesting to see HPC issue one of the forecast packages for Epsilon, yesterday. I assume that was a backup exercise, since I believe HPC has to take over if NHC/TPC is knocked out of commission for some reason.


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: oddball watch [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64223 - Thu Dec 08 2005 10:51 AM

Yep, the cyclone phase diagrams confirm that -- the 00Z more bullish than either yesterday's 18Z or today's 06Z run -- but it suggests the possibility of something out in the great blue yonder early week next week. The 06Z run most resembles what we saw with Delta and Epsilon in early runs of the models, while the 18Z and 00Z runs are even closer to tropical development in nature, suggesting a true warm-core evolution. It will be interesting to see what happens, now that Epsilon has met it's fate with the trough.

--------------------
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swimaway19
Weather Watcher


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Re: Hurricane Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #64229 - Thu Dec 08 2005 09:12 PM

This might be a bit off topic, but what was the results of Dr. Gray's 2006 forecast? I thought that was supposed to happen on Dec. 6, but haven't heard anything since.

check the storm forum. it's pretty much all over there. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Dec 09 2005 01:43 AM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: oddball watch [Re: Clark]
      #64230 - Thu Dec 08 2005 09:25 PM

The 12Z and 18Z runs of the GFS have trended even more cold-core with the development of the system, to the point that it doesn't even resemble what we saw with Delta and Epsilon. The other models, however, are more bullish, more closely resembling the 06Z GFS with the evolution of the forecast area of low pressure. It bears watching over the next 3-4 days, but it appears as though the likelihood of getting a candidate for Zeta seems to be dwindling. The environment out there, just looking at satellite, is pretty stable right now...might change, might not -- we'll see.

As for Gray's forecast -- there's a thread about it over in the Storm Forum right now, along with a prediction thread for 2006 for those so inclined.

Added Friday 12/9, 3:10pm: the latest three runs of the GFS have trended back more toward a possible subtropical/tropical development out of the low forecast to develop to the north/northeast of the remnants of Epsilon. We're about 12-24hr away from such an area of low pressure forming, according to the model, and about 3-4 days from any sort of development, so we still have some time to watch things and, of course, things are subject to change. Other models are of similar evolution to the GFS and similar to what they showed yesterday, with the Canadian (big shock) being the most bullish. The NOGAPS has the low forming much further north than the others; such an evolution would not lend itself to warm-core development.

Nevertheless, something to watch out of the corner of your eyes as we move into mid-December. The NHC will watch it, I'm sure, but will again likely be sluggish to classify anything and will almost undoubtedly require a good satellite signature before an upgrade is made.

--------------------
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


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Watching Oddballs *DELETED* [Re: Clark]
      #64239 - Fri Dec 09 2005 06:12 PM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham - Off topic.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Dec 10 2005 10:35 AM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: Watching Oddballs [Re: ltpat228]
      #64240 - Fri Dec 09 2005 11:37 PM

well, if anything is on the way it will have come and gone long before santa gets here. maybe fifty fifty. the models are showing something that sure looks like a hybrid tropical cyclone, but it won't have the staying power that epsilon did... and will be evolving over a slightly cooler-water environment as well. i think that if anything comes up it'll more likely be subtropical.
eh, probably more likely the NHC will shrug it off unless it develops a clear tropical profile. give it the ol' delta treatment.
HF 0436z10december


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Watching Oddballs [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64248 - Sat Dec 10 2005 09:50 PM

Getting a typical start to a hybrid evolution out along 30W -- deep ridging over Western Europe is causing the midlatitude trough out there to fracture, leaving behind a cut-off upper-low (with a 999mb surface reflection) in its wake. Models are still suggesting that something could undergo tropical transition out there and end up classified, though as my boss noted to me from down under yesterday -- they've got the tendency to kill off anything that pops up warm-core this late in the year as they don't handle these processes all that well once a storm becomes tropical. That said, they do handle the basics of getting it there pretty well, so I'd say we've got a fair shot at seeing something out there in a few days.

Next question becomes one of what name would it take. The TAFB Atlantic discussions are tracking it as the remnant low of Epsilon. I'm not so sure on that one, though I will admit to not having tracked it quite as much as they have. That said, the NHC may have a naming dilemma on their hands if something does get going out there -- Epsilon or Zeta? Nevertheless, it'd be one for the record books and surely would bring about arguments over semantics and the like if it happened.

Whatever happens, models are forecasting it to move slowly toward the west over the next 5 days. It's so far out there, though, that it'll only be a threat to interests in the Eastern Atlantic, likely after it gets captured by another midlatitude feature later on down the line.

We'll watch this one -- I'm going to put about 60/40 odds favoring it developing right now, assuming the NHC goes forth and classifies it (noting the caveats outlined in previous posts), and will be looking to see if future discussions track this feature as Epsilon as well. If they do, then we likely will not see any addition to the numbers for this season out of this one; if not, then it's more likely anything that develops out there will become Zeta as opposed to a reincarnation of Epsilon.

--------------------
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HanKFranK
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Re: Watching Oddballs [Re: Clark]
      #64249 - Sun Dec 11 2005 04:22 PM

well... right now it's a big non-tropical gale center. looks to have partially occluded, while sitting about 500 mi south of the azores. the convection on the inner spiral is modest, but nothing resembling an isolated core yet. i'd say it's two days away from transition, minimum. but it looks to have 3-4 days, so hybrid development is still within the realm of possibility.
HF 2122z11december


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Watching Oddballs [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64251 - Sun Dec 11 2005 08:11 PM

Either you guys got an over the shoulder look at the discussions that came out hours later...or NHC is reading the thread here. Here's an excerpt from the 7 PM EST Discussion.

IN THE NE ATLC...
POWERFUL 990 MB LOW IS NEAR 32N29W WITH WINDS APPROACHING STORM FORCE. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM THE LOW SW TO 19N41W.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N20W TO 20N21W DISSIPATING JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDES. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 22.5N-30N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 22W.
THIS LOW IS BEING WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST IT COULD BECOME MORE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH TIME.
FOR NOW THERE ISN'T MUCH CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IT IS TOO ENTANGLED WITH FRONTS TO EVEN CONSIDER SUBTROPICAL Dvorak CLASSIFICATIONS.
FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH... A CONSENSUS OF COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST THIS
SYSTEM TO BE THE MOST SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL ON THE 13TH. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING N OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO BE CUTOFF FOR A FEW DAYS BUT IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO HAVE AS MUCH TIME AS EPSILON DID TO FORM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/112343.shtml?

Here is a link to the OPC forecast page for the N Atlantic. Presently indicating the above mentioned Low moving clockwise around a 1044mb High. The High is progged as stationary off the SW Coast of the U.K.
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Edited by danielw (Sun Dec 11 2005 08:47 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Watching Oddballs [Re: danielw]
      #64253 - Sun Dec 11 2005 10:11 PM

Models are showing a pretty short lifespan for this feature, but I think that's largely due to how they handle the medium-term structural evolution of the system. Once the system goes warm-core (tropical/subtropical) in the model, they are quickly decaying the system. Normally, that'd be what you expect given the cool SSTs. But, models already handle tropical cyclone intensity pretty poorly as it is, especially for those well out at sea; I would not expect them to accurately capture tropical development in the North Atlantic beyond showing a cut-off low acquiring tropical characteristics to begin with. Experience this season bears that out, with Vince, Delta, and Epsilon all good cases toward that hypothesis, especially the latter of the three. I'd expect this system to be with us in 5 days, regardless of the models losing it.

As the NHC/TAFB discussion mentions, the system is a bit too entangled in fronts right now to be threatening for immediate tropical/subtropical development. It is on its way, however. It has subtropical characteristics in the wind field -- strong winds very near the center of circulation, but a rather flat wind profile out from the center of the system, i.e. the winds are still rather substantial as you move away from the inner "core" of the system. Max winds are likely 50-60kt right now, in line with a 990mb pressure, yet still 30-35kt well away from the center particularly to the NE owing to the pressure gradient between it and the 1044mb high Danny mentioned in the previous post. (For reference, see http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBds122.png. Likely disregard this link after Monday mid-afternoon.)

METEOSAT-8 satellite image: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/images/xxirmet7n.GIF. Satellite representation continues to improve, though we're going to need to see a bit more of a break from the front to the north (though it certainly has been getting there) to get a shot at a classified system. Given the strength of that ridge near/just west of the British Isles, I think that'll come with time. The trailing bands to the south/southeast -- proxies for frontal structures -- will need to tighten up and weaken as well.

We'll know within the next two days if we're going to get another system out there this season. I still think we have a better shot than not at getting something, probably 65/35 now. It is certainly a good case for anyone interested in how these things can get going -- very well predicted by the models, near-classic evolution on infrared/WV satellite imagery, tightening of the circulation and wind field (as evidenced by QuikSCAT), ultimately leading to what may be a subtropical/tropical cyclone. I think we'll see an invest put out for this one tomorrow if for no other reason than to get the microwave imagery from the NRL centered over the storm.

After this...I figure this will last for at least another 7 days in the North Atlantic. Nothing is threatening or should threaten in the tropical Atlantic in that time frame (or for the rest of the season, for that matter). Any development beyond that would be much like the last two storms and would likely take another 5 days beyond the end game for this system to even get going. That gets us to Christmas. At the absolute most, we will not get past Eta this season. As noted above, I think we've got about a 65% shot at Zeta. I think we have a <5% shot at Eta (and no shot if the current system does not get classified) and 0% shot at going further into the Greek alphabet. The absolute end of the 2005 hurricane season is coming...really, it is!

(Let's not even think of the possibility of more of these hybrids in January-April to kick off the 2006 season early, either...)

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Doombot!
Weather Guru


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Re: Watching Oddballs [Re: Clark]
      #64255 - Mon Dec 12 2005 01:17 AM

Quote:

The absolute end of the 2005 hurricane season is coming...really, it is!




It has to be, we're almost out of year!


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
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Re: Watching Oddballs [Re: Clark]
      #64257 - Mon Dec 12 2005 11:48 AM

Clark, HF, Danny thank you so much for the informative posts and the links. I hadn't found any other sat images to look at except the 4x daily METEOSAT-8 color-enhanced IR (wish they would have moved the floater a bit east of where it was, but instead they took if off the ATL ocean and centered it over FL). I did not know about the OPC web site; was able to go between their very useful maps and the sat image this morning, and between that and your posts and this morning's TWD, I understand what I am seeing, although it is hard for me to figure out the different types of clouds on the too-colorful IR image. With each of these storms I am understanding more about their formation. I'm finding this just as interesting as looking at the purely tropical systems I watched all season.

Quote:

...or NHC is reading the thread here



I imagine that when storms are brewing the NHC forecasters are crazy busy just to get everything done to get the forecast products out, but it would be nice to think that in the down time, between, some of them might wander over here now and then, to see what we're seeing and saying (and, this season, to see if we enjoyed the offbeat comments in the discussions), or what puzzles us. We are the nicest hurricane board on the web , and we have you guys posting the great met information.

margie, really... we've got nothing on those guys. -HF

That is not what I meant.

Edited by Margie (Tue Dec 13 2005 09:20 PM)


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