GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I forgot to predict when I thought first named storm would occur. I believe that would be the 2nd week in August. for 2 reasons.
1) People are NOT complacent this year. I already have people asking me what I think at work.
2) It is still very cool for nearly the middle of May here in Central Florida.( Don't ask the construction workers).
The moisture is not consistent over land or even near land.
3) Unless there is more than usual political derrier covering, they will not be quick to name storms that are far away(not in Gulf of Mexico) to save the names for the threatening ones.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Ha ha. I posted a date yesterday just to get in the spirit of the thing, and had no idea I'd be looking at my first tropical wave of the season today! HF, did you have a crystal ball? Shear ahead of the wave is dropping off and there is even a chance it may make it into the Carib. If it does then something could get cooking.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Minor adjustment to 15/9/2 with first named storm on 7/23.
ED
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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I will stay with 14/6/4. First named on June 3rd. 8 days off. Not too bad 
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Jun 11 2006 11:57 AM)
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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I am on record at another site for 20/12/6.
My first US landfall was July 12th.
My thoughts have been for the greater threats this year being on the EC, due to my expected conditions this year.
Edited by MrSpock (Sat May 13 2006 08:58 PM)
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Howdy
I'll go with 15/9/5; first storm on June 25.
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
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Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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OK - - Here Goes - - sound like 2004 all over again - - so 19/10/6 with the first named storm in the second week of June. :?:
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 10 2006 01:26 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I'll keep my numbers the same. Scientifically, osscilations in patterns tend not to be extreme from year to year. However, with fairly average SSTs, I believe it won't be quite as active as last year. The cool spring won't affect mid-late season as the SSTs warm up quickly and the continued higher global temperature trend increases the numbers of hurricanes over a normal season, though not as extreme as we saw last year. The likely hood of lots of named storms is high, but I don't expect them to be as strong systems.
Here are my winter numbers, unchanged: 23/9/2
Now, first storm: The cool spring will delay the start slightly, so I expect the first names storm in the 3rd week of June.
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
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Quote:
time to make may updates.
I've lived in Florida since I was born 52 years ago.
We have hurricanes every year.
I do not second guess, nor predict, how Mother Nature will perform.
She does what she does.
She does it well.
And as a Floridian, I accept her.
This is something that we do every year. It is not done seriously, however, it does match our guesstimates against the 'numbers' provided by professional outlets. Our intent is to encourage participation, not discourage it. If you don't intend to post your thoughts on seasonal numbers, don't make a post in this thread.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 10 2006 12:55 PM)
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dolfanblondie
Registered User
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Posts: 2
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
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I think I will try this year. My numbers - 19/10/5
I have been a professional lurker so I hope I have learned a lot from you guys and plan to learn a lot more this year. 
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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Post deleted by Ed Dunham
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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shellylay81
Unregistered
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Post deleted by Ed Dunham
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shellylay81
Unregistered
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I forgot the prediction.. =0) I'm saying 21/11/4 .. First named storm on June 24th. .. hopefully, I'm going to Miami the first week of June.
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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Post deleted by Ed Dunham
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Hello everyone! While I never paid much attention to the supposed baroclinic super powers of love-bugs (who are probably too busy procreating on my windshield to care), I must digress I was half expecting an early season storm before the month’s end… but lo, the likelihood for such an event is rapidly diminishing; I shall surrender Alberto to sometime before June 15.
I am most likely leaving the state for college in the spring term, so this is in many respects my last season for now.
My numbers are:
15/7/3
Everyone ready? : )
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Sat May 27 2006 02:35 PM)
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PutnamGator
Registered User
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Posts: 5
Loc: Putnam County, FL
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Post deleted by Ed Dunham
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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I'll go 15 / 9 / 4, first named storm June 27th.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Post deleted by Ed Dunham
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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poolwatcher
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
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Post deleted by Ed Dunham
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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lots of off topic stuff on this thread. oh bother. i guess i could be grumpy about it, but a messy room isn't the end of the world.
reminder that today, may 30th, is the deadline to add your take. the colostate bunch will issue their update tomorrow. they might slash a storm or two, but i doubt they'll make any significant changes.
HF 0657z30may
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