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The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins on June 1st, 2022. Normal Tropical Weather Outlooks Resume May 15th.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 128 (Nicholas) , Major: 144 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1198 (Michael) Major: 1198 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2006 Storm Forum

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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
may updates
      #65082 - Thu May 04 2006 12:21 AM

hey all you folks who posted pre-season forecasts back in the winter: time to make our may updates. what with the developments in el nino and atlantic SSTs some of you might want to adjust your season forecasts. or knock those crazy numbers exceeding 2005 down into reality, maybe?
post your updated numbers in this thread and i'll chunk them all together with the adjustments from earlier. if you didn't post in december, just tack your numbers on anyway. if you don't update or don't want to update that's fine, too.. i'll just keep your december numbers.
as an extra feel free to toss in your guess at the date the first named storm forms. we'll go with the date it gets named doesn't go to storm strength the day the depression forms. subtropical storms count.
forecast deadline is tuesday, may 30th, right ahead of the klotzbach/gray season kickoff issue.

i'll start it off: 18/12/6, a shift up to the crowd from nov/dec. call me bandwagon. i'll feel dumb if 14/9/4 verifies.
first storm, may 23. that'll be the day.
HF 0420z04may


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Evil Jeremy
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65083 - Thu May 04 2006 10:43 AM

19 Tropical Storms} 1 subtropical
10 Hurricanes
6 Major
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Storm: Anywhere withen 2 weeks. GFS is showing a system in the GOM in a week.

Landfall Forecast:
June-July: A weak hurricane will probaly hit Mexico, while a TS will it somewhere in the Guld of Mexico.

August: A Cat1-2 hurricane will strike the centreal East coast, while the FL Keys are threatened by a small hurricane or TS.

September: S. Florida is threatned once, and so is the panhandle of FL.

October: S. Texas gets their Due, and so does the Tampa area with a TS. Florida will get another suprise hit from the south.

November: all gets quiet with a Tropical Storm coming up from nowhere and hiting the Carribean.


About 5 of these storms will affect the Carribean, and 2 of them will affect the Bahamas. 75% chance that the FL. East Coast will get hit. 55% Chance that the Carolinas will get hit.


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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65084 - Thu May 04 2006 10:46 AM

My original numbers were: 20/8/3 on dec 1. And I will go ahead and adjust these numbers to 18/10/5. As for the first named storm, I will go with May 16.

--------------------
Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 209
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: may updates [Re: firestar_1]
      #65085 - Thu May 04 2006 11:13 AM

I posted mine late in another forum because honestly, I was so sick and tired of seeing hurricanes last december, I just put everything down and walked away for a bit.

Anyways, i'm sticking with my april forcast:

21/11/5...i'm an odd fellow so my numbers are all going to be odd.
First Named Storm: July 6


Personal note: what are the chances of them they retiring PATTY just because it's an icky name and putting 'Psyber' in it's place?

they'll make that replacement right after replacing michael with meatwad. besides, isn't psyber a 'male' name? wrong gender for that slot. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu May 04 2006 08:14 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
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Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65088 - Thu May 04 2006 11:03 PM

Back in Nov/Dec/whenever, I went with 15/9/4. Now I'm going to go with 15/9/5.

Date of first storm: oh, give me June 27th

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

Edited by Clark (Sun May 28 2006 11:46 PM)


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Nateball
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 40
Loc: Tarpon Springs FL
Re: may updates [Re: Clark]
      #65089 - Fri May 05 2006 04:21 PM

Hello everyone my name is Nate and hurricane's are a major hobby of mine. I hope to learn a lot from this forum and from all of you. I joined the forum last year but didnt chat much but this year I'm looking forward to learning more and more about hurricanes and forcasting. As far as this year Im guessing 21/12/7 with the first storm coming May 29th.

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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: may updates [Re: Nateball]
      #65090 - Fri May 05 2006 07:46 PM

My Dec forecast was 23/10/7. I will revise my May forecast to 20/14/5.

I am still looking for a landfall from Gavelston, Tx to Tallahassie, Fl. This is based on a possible nutural La Nina warmer that normal SST's. IMO


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Enrique
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: Upstate New York
Re: may updates [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #65094 - Fri May 05 2006 10:33 PM

My original numbers were: 22/12/6; I'll modify to 19/9/4.

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: may updates [Re: Enrique]
      #65104 - Mon May 08 2006 05:18 PM

I'll move my numbers up to 16/8/5


I want to say the first storm of the season will come around June 22nd and then it is quiet until mid July.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: may updates [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #65105 - Mon May 08 2006 06:25 PM

Last year I did not think a serious hurricane would bother Florida overly much and unless one considered Wilma to be a real nusance we did not have a serious hurricane. The news media was less than reliable here in Central Florida as to what was happening with Wilma to our south.
This year I am feeling a dread of at least one of our Gulf of Mexico storms putting a world of hurt on the Florida Peninsula this year. The reasons are not noticeably different from 2004. Fireweather and drying winds have placed us very vulnerable to sudden flooding with trees and sinksholes etc. I have also noticed an unusual critter activity this spring. We have some kind of flies that are really a nusance and the store repellents are not even making them wet, much less killing them. My birds are laying eggs about once every two weeks or more often. Its like they are stocking up on family members. I don't care how many numbers of hurricanes form, it only takes the one to finish off the job that was started by the 3 muskateers in 2004. I keep saying to any one who comments about the Northeast being in the line of hurricane landfall this year, most cold fronts dip down from the west, into the Gulf and then ride back up to the Northeast. There is nothing to prevent a hurricane from doing that either. Florida is not wide enough to slow a Katrina size storm down at all. Especially if the storm takes on subtropical characteristics and does not respond to cooler water temperatures or the position of the Gulf stream. Numbers of storms? 19/5major one or two Cat 5 where and when I don't know. All I know for sure is that Texas and Lousianna started off pretty dry last year. Florida is pretty dry this year and very much more windy than I seem to remember.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
Re: may updates [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #65108 - Wed May 10 2006 07:36 AM

Going with the Fibonacci Series. 21-13-(8-2} except for a reduction in majors. Hopefully the 2 less will be those slated for the Gold Coast.


(Use the PM capability for personal messages)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 10 2006 01:43 PM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65113 - Wed May 10 2006 03:53 PM

Oh duh...

My guess 19/9/5

May 29th.



Lesli.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 10 2006 01:45 PM)


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65121 - Thu May 11 2006 12:26 AM

I'll play....

16/9/5 (with 2 major US landfalls)

"A" storm July 17th


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: may updates [Re: Doombot!]
      #65138 - Thu May 11 2006 10:59 PM

*dusts off login*

I got sucked into soccer full time not too long after Wilma and threw my hands in the air around Gamma.

Accordingly I never posted my feelings on this season.

20/11/5

I'm not even going to touch landfalls

*waves hello to everyone*

First storm will be June 17th.


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harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
Re: may updates [Re: tpratch]
      #65141 - Fri May 12 2006 01:58 PM

22/14/6

First storm will be July 16th.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: may updates [Re: tpratch]
      #65142 - Fri May 12 2006 02:21 PM

I said I wouldn't change my numbers after Dec unless we had some subtropical storms, and I'll stick to that.

First named storm? Ummm...not 'til July 1st. I picked the beginning of a holiday weekend, so if Mother Nature will oblige, I'll have time to watch it inbetween the picnic at the lake. :-) Let's just say it's my way of being patriotic. Probably not the first pick of anyone who happens to be a professional met specializing in tropical weather! Who would want to work on a big holiday weekend.

Of course that's probably the worst date to pick. If we have an early start to the season, that would mean a June date (HF what were you thinkin' there with the end of May), but if we have a normal start to the season, it'll be further out in July.

Do I have a reason for picking July? Not really -- no expertise to do so. But look at the jet stream position over the ATL and all the shear. And even if the ITCZ has kicked off, it's still below 5N. And SSTs not anywhere near last year. And the mother lode of warm water in the NW Carib is cooling down lately (what's that all about). And it's 40 degrees and raining here in MSP today. Summer's going to take her time showing up.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65144 - Fri May 12 2006 05:20 PM

Never made a prediction in December so, here goes.

I don't believe all the doom-sayers that this year is going to be very bad. So, I'll go with 12/8/2.

Earliest Storm:

I'll be in Florida all June and July, so I'll say August 1st at the earliest

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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Tak
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65152 - Sat May 13 2006 07:08 AM

Sticking with 18 / 13 / 6 and hope I am wrong. First NS 7/16

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: may updates *DELETED* [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #65154 - Sat May 13 2006 08:31 AM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Re: may updates [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #65155 - Sat May 13 2006 09:59 AM

My final numbers are 15/9/4.First storm on June 18.

Edited by Cycloneye11 (Mon May 15 2006 09:22 AM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: may updates [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #65156 - Sat May 13 2006 11:47 AM

I forgot to predict when I thought first named storm would occur. I believe that would be the 2nd week in August. for 2 reasons.
1) People are NOT complacent this year. I already have people asking me what I think at work.
2) It is still very cool for nearly the middle of May here in Central Florida.( Don't ask the construction workers).
The moisture is not consistent over land or even near land.
3) Unless there is more than usual political derrier covering, they will not be quick to name storms that are far away(not in Gulf of Mexico) to save the names for the threatening ones.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: may updates [Re: Tak]
      #65157 - Sat May 13 2006 05:39 PM

Ha ha. I posted a date yesterday just to get in the spirit of the thing, and had no idea I'd be looking at my first tropical wave of the season today! HF, did you have a crystal ball? Shear ahead of the wave is dropping off and there is even a chance it may make it into the Carib. If it does then something could get cooking.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65162 - Sat May 13 2006 07:39 PM

Minor adjustment to 15/9/2 with first named storm on 7/23.
ED


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: may updates [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #65164 - Sat May 13 2006 07:52 PM

I will stay with 14/6/4. First named on June 3rd. 8 days off. Not too bad

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Jun 11 2006 11:57 AM)


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: may updates [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #65167 - Sat May 13 2006 08:53 PM

I am on record at another site for 20/12/6.
My first US landfall was July 12th.

My thoughts have been for the greater threats this year being on the EC, due to my expected conditions this year.

Edited by MrSpock (Sat May 13 2006 08:58 PM)


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: may updates [Re: MrSpock]
      #65176 - Sun May 14 2006 03:00 PM

Howdy

I'll go with 15/9/5; first storm on June 25.


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65257 - Wed May 17 2006 04:57 PM

OK - - Here Goes - - sound like 2004 all over again - - so 19/10/6 with the first named storm in the second week of June. :?:

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 10 2006 01:26 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: may updates [Re: Wingman51]
      #65260 - Fri May 19 2006 07:56 AM

I'll keep my numbers the same. Scientifically, osscilations in patterns tend not to be extreme from year to year. However, with fairly average SSTs, I believe it won't be quite as active as last year. The cool spring won't affect mid-late season as the SSTs warm up quickly and the continued higher global temperature trend increases the numbers of hurricanes over a normal season, though not as extreme as we saw last year. The likely hood of lots of named storms is high, but I don't expect them to be as strong systems.

Here are my winter numbers, unchanged: 23/9/2

Now, first storm: The cool spring will delay the start slightly, so I expect the first names storm in the 3rd week of June.


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: May Updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65262 - Fri May 19 2006 05:55 PM

Quote:

time to make may updates.




I've lived in Florida since I was born 52 years ago.
We have hurricanes every year.
I do not second guess, nor predict, how Mother Nature will perform.
She does what she does.
She does it well.
And as a Floridian, I accept her.

This is something that we do every year. It is not done seriously, however, it does match our guesstimates against the 'numbers' provided by professional outlets. Our intent is to encourage participation, not discourage it. If you don't intend to post your thoughts on seasonal numbers, don't make a post in this thread.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 10 2006 12:55 PM)


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dolfanblondie
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
Re: May Updates [Re: ltpat228]
      #65280 - Mon May 22 2006 12:03 PM

I think I will try this year. My numbers - 19/10/5
I have been a professional lurker so I hope I have learned a lot from you guys and plan to learn a lot more this year.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: may updates *DELETED* [Re: Wingman51]
      #65306 - Wed May 24 2006 07:34 AM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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shellylay81
Unregistered




Re: may updates *DELETED* [Re: madmumbler]
      #65343 - Thu May 25 2006 05:44 PM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

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shellylay81
Unregistered




Re: may updates [Re: shellylay81]
      #65345 - Thu May 25 2006 05:46 PM

I forgot the prediction.. =0) I'm saying 21/11/4 .. First named storm on June 24th. .. hopefully, I'm going to Miami the first week of June.

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: may updates *DELETED* [Re: shellylay81]
      #65379 - Sat May 27 2006 09:51 AM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: may updates [Re: madmumbler]
      #65385 - Sat May 27 2006 02:32 PM

Hello everyone! While I never paid much attention to the supposed baroclinic super powers of love-bugs (who are probably too busy procreating on my windshield to care), I must digress I was half expecting an early season storm before the month’s end… but lo, the likelihood for such an event is rapidly diminishing; I shall surrender Alberto to sometime before June 15.

I am most likely leaving the state for college in the spring term, so this is in many respects my last season for now.

My numbers are:

15/7/3

Everyone ready? : )

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Sat May 27 2006 02:35 PM)


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PutnamGator
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Loc: Putnam County, FL
Re: may updates *DELETED* [Re: Random Chaos]
      #65395 - Sat May 27 2006 09:07 PM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: may updates [Re: PutnamGator]
      #65398 - Sun May 28 2006 12:57 AM

I'll go 15 / 9 / 4, first named storm June 27th.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: may updates *DELETED* [Re: madmumbler]
      #65423 - Mon May 29 2006 08:09 AM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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poolwatcher
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 13
Re: may updates *DELETED* [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #65427 - Mon May 29 2006 02:55 PM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: may updates [Re: poolwatcher]
      #65443 - Tue May 30 2006 01:57 AM

lots of off topic stuff on this thread. oh bother. i guess i could be grumpy about it, but a messy room isn't the end of the world.
reminder that today, may 30th, is the deadline to add your take. the colostate bunch will issue their update tomorrow. they might slash a storm or two, but i doubt they'll make any significant changes.
HF 0657z30may


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poolwatcher
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 13
Re: may updates [Re: Evil Jeremy]
      #65459 - Wed May 31 2006 11:22 AM

WIth absolutely no training, I am relying upon my Ouija Board (jus kiddin) and will plunge in anyway--chances of being right are greater than winning Powerball, afterall:

Twenty Tropical Storms
Nine Hurricanes
Five Hurricanes Cat 2 or greater
August: First Hurricane to Threaten Florida
Sept and October Two Hurricanes Hit Florida and One Tropical Storm

Florida Definitely gets Hit during the season
Gulf Coast Definitely gets hit
New England barely dodges a Hurricane and gets flooded by heavy rain on the outer bands.

Edited by poolwatcher (Wed May 31 2006 11:24 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Administrative Note [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65982 - Sat Jun 10 2006 02:00 PM

Just a reminder that the Storm Forum, like the Main Page, is a strictly moderated Forum. Off-topic posts will be edited or deleted. Please attempt to stay on-topic in this Forum.
Thanks,
ED

what'd i tell ya'll about ed, now? i opted to let the offtopic stuff ride and he still went and cleaned house. the man sticks to the rules, i tell ya.
anyhow, since the thread is locked i'll just edit the results in. tpratch had the closest day guessed at june 17th. alberto was named on the 11th. wingman51 guessed week 2 of june, which isn't specific (geez, just guess a day in week 2...), but technically falls closer. so, thanks to people not following rules to the T, we have no clear winner. yaay. -HF 0247z15june

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Jun 14 2006 09:47 PM)


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