Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Hm...I noticed that on , but Dr. Steve barely mentioned it. Or if he did, I missed it. It is looking very interesting, though. What sort of time table do you think we would be looking at if it does develop and goes inland? 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Pensacola, FL
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It has gotten more and more organized over the past few hours. I've seen Tropical Storms look worse than this. Definately something to watch!
~SirCane
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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yea buddy
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Miami,Fla.
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I don't want to jump tp any conclusions here but the system in the Carribean is looking better all the time,even appears to be developing a ridge over it,but these things are tricky & it could just as easilly fall apart,the doesnt think much of it as of yet, but I don't see any real strong shear over it & convection continues to fester,just something to watch right now.
Greyman (aka) Landfaller
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Have to agree with Sircane and Greyman as the system in the Caribbean right now is about as good as anything I've seen on IR thus far this season in the tropics...
Pressure in Cuba and Jamaica range from 1009 to 1012mb. Jamaica has east winds at 17 mph.
Big question will it persist long enough to develop? Joe B talked about this system this morning and said "if" it did develop it would follow the trough and track off to the NE...
Lets see what, if anything happens.... not tracking it yet...
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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This area is looking very nicely and powerful right now and a small area of high pressure may be forming on top there is not alot of shear and there looks to be a slight turning that there might be a tropical system trying to get stated and the pattern calls for north movement so there will be alot of rain the islands tonight. about boris that the nation hurricane center is paying more watch on that spin of low clouds heck I seen some weak hurricane look like this I think It got a chance but as long as the shear stays light the avn dom't yeat make the storm and think yet but was so a watch will be kept on this area. Matthew
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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or is it? this one is a bunch of convection induced by upper divergence or something, and seems to be a bit off from whatever weak surface trough there is. what interests me more than the big burst near jamaica is the slow moving, sparse, less sheared convection near the caymans that is right under the narrow upper ridge axis, and apparently near an ill defined surface trough. if something is going to try and go, it will be there, so i reckon. but it needs to do a lot more than that. i'm thinking that in about two weeks as the summer pattern over the u.s. matures, shear in the early season breeding zone will become less hostile, and less of an overall westerly flow will dominate but rather a bunch of upper cutoff systems. right now i'm also starting to think that the kickoff for this season, which will be stretched out rather than one big burst of activity, will be in late july or early august. there might be maybe an odd system before then, but i'm betting against much activity before about july 15th.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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I found this while checking out the forecasts for this morning..they are talking about an upper low circulation just off the Central E Florida coast:
STILL LOOKS LIKE VERY WET PATTERN SETTING UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT FEW DAYS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...ETA...MESO-ETA AND NGM ARE A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH AVN NOT BEING QUITE AS HIGH ON AMOUNTS THOUGH POPS FROM MAV STILL IN
LIKELY CATEGORY. CURRENT PLAN IS TO STICK WITH ETA/MESO/NGM WHICH INDICATE TROPICAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST WHILE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST. AVN STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP LOW ALONG TROUGH AXIS AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NOT CONSIDERING A WATCH AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS STILL FAIRLY DRY...BUT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER LATER.
Ok...are they talking about a FLOOD WATCH? Or a tropical storm watch? I'm thinking that they may be talking about a flood watch given that they were talking about the amount of rain (1-2") but I may be mistaken. Anyone?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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They would be talking about a flood a watch because of this line in the discussion: In reply to:
...especially given antecedent condtions still fairly dry...
That's why it would be a flood watch, not a TS watch.  Besides, issues TC watches and warnings, not NWS offices.  Conditions near Orlando, Florida: Heavy rain with frequent lightning, temp: 74 degrees, humidity: 93%, baro pres.:29.99 inches and steady.
Kevin
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Thank you, Kevin. I should have figured as much, but I just have to ask, ya know.
I'll tell ya what...up here in Central Florida, it is weird looking outside....very tall cumulous clouds, with stray clouds (you know those ones that hang down that people think are tornadoes??) and it is VERY HUMID.
Ah well...another Florida summer day. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well the latest visible imagery shows that the convection associated with the trough and tropical wave has split into two distinct areas. One area is over the Bahamas and south Florida and the other is to the south of Cuba. The 12Z surface analysis shows a new low developing in the same general area as the convection over the Bahamas, and shows another low just to the south of where the convection is in the NW Caribbean. Both areas bear watching, but are still not showing anything as yet.
Rich
StormWarn2000 International
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Alright, the convection in the western carribbean looks better than almost anything last year, yet no posts!!!! When there is nothing going on we get 115. It's almost as if we're waiting for someone to say GAME ON!!!
Keith
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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need i say more 
Rich
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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The 2002 Hurricane season offically ends in 173 days.
How's that? Heh.
Steve
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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still waiting for the kickoff. west carib doesnt look all that impressive.. what convection there is is mostly related to an upper trough, the surface turning is weak and broad and totally unfocused. joe b was talking about a low springing up and harassing floridians later on, but the fierce weather hasnt come calling just yet. of course there was that storm last july on the west florida coast that never got organized but still brought some good strong winds.. so it wont necessarily take a tropical system to do it. confidence remains low until some sort of surface low takes over in this big mess.
also IMO i've always thought that there should be some time deliniation for the peak part of hurricane season, august 15th to october 15th, to separate it from the rest. theres a big difference between june 4th and september 18th when it comes to hurricane frequency and danger, but both are just another day in the hurricane season.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Joe B is predicting (with the help of the ) a cut off low down near the mouth of the river - post trof split - early part of next week. The apparent key is whether or not a storm coming down out of the eastern slopes and plains splits and heads south to the Gulf or rides back up ENE and heads out to the mid-Atlantic states. The European surface is showing this, though it is entirely too far out for it to handle actual pressure or rainfall amounts. Looks like an interesting setup for a potential rainmaker on the NC GC.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Has anyone seen how many people are being effected by the fires in Colorado? It reminds me of floyd with all of the evacuations and also makes me realize, that could be us with how dry we are. A hurricane or good tropical storm could pull us right out of a drought, but we have this new company that will put the "dyno-gel" stuff on it, and try to kill it. If that happens and without normal rain, we could be the next colorado. Like I said, just a thought....
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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just goes to show you should never mess with Mother Nature
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Larry
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Raleigh, NC
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Steve,
I hope Joe B is correct about a rainmaker for NC! We are over 5 inches below normal rainfall for the year, on top of low amounts for 2001. Voluntary water restrictions are already imposed, which is scary for this early in the season. It would also be nice to have a system to clear out the smog; we are under the 3rd day of Code Red ozone alerts.
Here's hoping NC will get enough tropical storms this year to help the drought. Just not hurricanes like Fran or Floyd- I've had enough of trees falling on the house.
Larry
Raleigh NC
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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NC GC in my post referred to North Central Gulf Coast. Sorry about that. I read the story on CNN of the Spanish dude 40 miles west of Raleigh who lost 6 family members yesterday in a fire due to an overloaded extension cord hooked up to his A/C that had been running for several days. I doubt there's any end in sight at least until the tropical season gets underway.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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