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TD12 barely sustaining but Invest 91L causing serious flooding already and likely to become a named storm this week in W Carib
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Ian) , Major: 7 (Ian) Florida - Any: 7 (Ian) Major: 7 (Ian)
18.0N 33.4W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Wnw at 13 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist

Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: No longer a trough? [Re: Rich B]
      #67260 - Fri Jun 23 2006 12:21 PM


It would appear from the latest vis imagery loops that there maybe a better defined surface circulation developing east of Great Abaco Island. Its difficult to see for sure as there is also an increase in convective activity in this region. If this trend continues we *might* even get a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement, especially as its tracking slowly towards the west - putting the northern Bahamas in the firing line first.

I pretty much concur here. There is much better surface inflow/convergence into this area (circled), about which there are several weak vortices (maked "X") rotating.

Also, the upper low has dropped SW a scosh, placing this area in a more favorable pattern of low to moderate, but more importantly divergent upper level shear. The upper low's position is obvious on water vapor imagery, however, if you have a keen eye, you can make out it's position on vis imagery if you follow the pattern of convective CI blowoff.

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Weather Hobbyist

Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
Re: TD or Sub-TD? [Re: Lsr1166]
      #67261 - Fri Jun 23 2006 12:25 PM

From our local (Indian River, FL) EM office

For most of the week, a large upper level low pressure system has been meandering northeast of the northern Bahamas. This area has a broad area of low pressure and most of the convection remains towards the east. Also, upper level winds have not been favorable for any tropical development. Over the next 24 hours or so, conditions will be marginal for any chance of surface low pressure to develop. After 24 hours, the upper level winds will become less hostile and a potential weakness in the high pressure area over the southeast United States will allow this area to begin moving west-northwest. Because of the proximity of this system to the east coast of Florida, everyone should stay informed throughout the weekend should any tropical development occur.

The attached visible satellite shows an upper level system with no indication of a surface low pressure at this time. The attached infrared satellite picture shows storm activity well to the east of the system as shearing winds continue to impact the area. The attached water vapor picture shows an abundance of dry air west of this system. This dry air is hindering any type of development towards the west. The problem today is that none of the forecast conditions indicating a west-northwest movement over the weekend have developed at this time. So, the steering currents cannot be clearly demonstrated with satellite pictures.

While conditions are only marginal for any tropical cyclone development in this area, it is important that everyone remained informed when something is this close to Florida. Even if this system does not develop a surface low pressure area, the broad upper level low will bring showers and thunderstorms to Florida on Sunday if the west movement forecast verifies in the next 24 hours. Many of the thunderstorm cells on Sunday will come from the Atlantic Ocean and move over the peninsula. Therefore, some of these cells may energized before moving over land and become strong thunderstorms. If you observe storm developing, assume severe weather may occur and seek appropriate protective areas.

Should any development occur with this area over the weekend, I will update this message immediately.

Nathan McCollum, C.E.M.
Indian River County Emergency Management
--Paul S.

Edited by MikeC (Fri Jun 23 2006 12:36 PM)

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Weather Hobbyist

Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: No longer a trough? [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #67262 - Fri Jun 23 2006 12:39 PM


Thank you for the time and effort you put into these pictures. They sure do help to make things more clear as I learn more about these systems.

Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....

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