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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Twins...again?? [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #67158 - Wed Jun 21 2006 08:59 PM

Quote:

Yuppers...
These two features appear to be small H70-H50 vortices that were convectively spun up and are presently being sheared off to the northeast by the H50-H30 trough extending northeast from FL. these small vortices are riding over the top of the SW-NE oriented SFC-H85 inverted trough that currently lies across that area.




H70-H50= 9,900ft to 18,300ft (Mid Level)
H50-H30= 18,300 to 30,000ft (Upper Level)
SFC-H85= Sea Level to 4,800ft (Low level)

METs feel free to correct this~danielw


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Lou123
Unregistered




Re: Twins...again?? [Re: danielw]
      #67159 - Wed Jun 21 2006 09:47 PM

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. STRONG WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. Is this mean something could form?

Not really. That's probably the 9th or 10th wave that's come across this month. They just seem to be a bit more active ( convection and thunderstorm activity) than what is normally seen in the 3rd week of June.~danielw

Edited by danielw (Wed Jun 21 2006 11:11 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Twins...again?? [Re: Lou123]
      #67161 - Wed Jun 21 2006 10:11 PM

Boy... NASA got some cool new toys this year.....thought this would interest some folks... Tax dollars at work.... WOW! Pretty cool images i have seen so far

"NASA's new CloudSat satellite captured its first tropical storm, Alberto, as it spun over the Gulf of Mexico the morning of June 12, 2006"


CloudSat

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Twins...again?? [Re: Lou123]
      #67162 - Wed Jun 21 2006 10:12 PM

That wave's down by Panama and will bring rain to Nicaragua.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Twins...again?? [Re: Margie]
      #67163 - Wed Jun 21 2006 10:41 PM

Folks...Sorry to break in with an unrelated weather topic, but several posters here are from the Port Charlotte area and thought I'd post news links of tonights tornado (I didn't know how/ of if I could start another forum)
There are reports of minor injuries from this tornado at this time. Assessments ongoing.
NBC 2: http://www.nbc-2.com/index.shtml
Sarasota Herald Tribune: http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage

It should really be placed in "other weather events" but I will leave it for now all things taken into account...

Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Jun 21 2006 10:58 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Twins...again?? [Re: dem05]
      #67165 - Thu Jun 22 2006 02:14 AM

i've gotta adopt that shorthand for heights that tony is using... gets the information across fast. don't need to repeat his analysis of what is going on at various levels of the atmosphere out where our disturbance is camped.... it's pretty much on the button. you can see it in the visible and ir2 loops as well as a fair depiction of the same things in model initializations.
thursday the upper air currents around the system should act a little less hostile as far as shearing the convection around, while continuing to support flashes of convection. on the whole the disturbance has kept active convection with good consistency, and is more or less in a synoptically favorable area to persist if not become more organized. there has been some westward movement with the mid-level vortices, drifting out of the convective masses... so maybe heights to the north are rising and trying to push the whole thing westward finally. this agrees with what the models have been predicting to a degree. now comes the part where we find out if some kind of low will actually organize and start pushing surface pressures down, before it reaches the southeast coast. there should be 2-3 days for it to organize.
not sure what to make of the model depictions of other low pressure areas forming further east... as they'd be developing in a synoptically less favorable area (south/southwest of a big upper low). the upper low is shown with a surface reflection out near bermuda as well, but not with any development. the NAM still tries to get a disturbance up to the yucatan--probably overdone and no other support. the other globals have backed away from disturbed weather getting into the gulf (except perhaps the shell of our current bahamas interest after crossing florida).
as far as development goes, we're not really any closer than we were last night in terms of progress. the system persists, though... it'll be worth watching all the way in even if it doesn't develop. this may end up being the twin of the near-tropical system that ran through the mid-atlantic late last june, showing signs of rapid organization just as it moved into north carolina.
HF 0714z22june


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Twins...again?? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #67167 - Thu Jun 22 2006 07:13 AM

Quote:

Boy... NASA got some cool new toys this year.....thought this would interest some folks... Tax dollars at work.... WOW! Pretty cool images i have seen so far

"NASA's new CloudSat satellite captured its first tropical storm, Alberto, as it spun over the Gulf of Mexico the morning of June 12, 2006"


CloudSat




Oh now THAT'S cool!!!!!!

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Twins...again?? [Re: dem05]
      #67169 - Thu Jun 22 2006 07:21 AM

Quote:

Folks...Sorry to break in with an unrelated weather topic, but several posters here are from the Port Charlotte area and thought I'd post news links of tonights tornado (I didn't know how/ of if I could start another forum)
There are reports of minor injuries from this tornado at this time. Assessments ongoing.
NBC 2: http://www.nbc-2.com/index.shtml
Sarasota Herald Tribune: http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage

It should really be placed in "other weather events" but I will leave it for now all things taken into account... [/quote

I created one there.

I'm going to see if I can find the NWS report when it comes out today. (They are supposed to release one today.) It's supposedly 1 F0 or F1 that skipped around.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.

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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Possible invest.... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #67170 - Thu Jun 22 2006 10:17 AM

Well as always persistance is the key. Haven't looked at all runs or imagery yet this a.m. but obviously our little blob(s) in the Bahamas area is/are hanging in.

NHC posted possible low level invest @ 24/1800z near 27.5N 79.0W.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Possible invest.... [Re: twizted sizter]
      #67172 - Thu Jun 22 2006 10:51 AM

Yea,you can not have something hang around in those waters for this amount of time,without something happening.Last year the 2nd storm formed June 28th.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: Off SA [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #67173 - Thu Jun 22 2006 11:23 AM

What's this??

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Looks like a twist starting in the BB (Bahamas Blob) too...

MM


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Lsr1166
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 15
Loc: Tallahassee, Florida
Re: [Re: MapMaster]
      #67174 - Thu Jun 22 2006 11:28 AM

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEMS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
slight change of tone [Re: Lsr1166]
      #67175 - Thu Jun 22 2006 11:55 AM

the NHC verdict on the system has changed just a little bit. the latest twd posted illustrates part of this, while the possible investigation mentioned off the east coast of florida for saturday afternoon in the recon plan takes care of the rest. the tone is now gone from "probably nothing" to "possibly something".
there is probably still just a surface trough (with two maxes on it), a couple of corresponding mid-level lows, and only a marginal environment aloft. changes in organization over the past few days have been very subtle, with the trend over time bieng slow organization.
forecast models still showing only weak-if-any development. the current groupthink is that an inverted trough or possibly a weak low will drift into east florida over around the space coast. there are enough of the globals suggesting something else will try stirring (note the second oncoming wave with a signature visible around puerto rico at the present) east of that and following it in the same weak/pathetic state. the forecast models don't advertise anything really getting it's act together at all... given this a weak tropical system doesn't sound like the worst kind of news... all i ever hear coming out of florida is complaint about how dry it is.
no matter what happens, probably some good rain on the way for a lot of people. may still be some places that alberto took good care of that aren't in the mood for more. expect by the middle of next week for the mid-atlantic to have spotty flooding problems.
HF 1655z22june


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Bill-n-StPeteFL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 12
Re: slight change of tone [Re: HanKFranK]
      #67176 - Thu Jun 22 2006 12:30 PM

"the NHC verdict on the system has changed just a little bit. the latest twd posted illustrates part of this, while the possible investigation mentioned off the east coast of florida for saturday afternoon in the recon plan takes care of the rest. the tone is now gone from "probably nothing" to "possibly something".

Did they not do this with Alberto as well?


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: slight change of tone [Re: HanKFranK]
      #67177 - Thu Jun 22 2006 12:46 PM

Quote:

given this a weak tropical system doesn't sound like the worst kind of news... all i ever hear coming out of florida is complaint about how dry it is.
no matter what happens, probably some good rain on the way for a lot of people. may still be some places that alberto took good care of that aren't in the mood for more. expect by the middle of next week for the mid-atlantic to have spotty flooding problems.
HF 1655z22june




Yeah, yeah, I know, we're a bunch of whiners. It's too dry, it's too wet, it's too windy, it's not windy enough.

At least we don't have to shovel snow! *LOL*

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: slight change of tone [Re: Bill-n-StPeteFL]
      #67178 - Thu Jun 22 2006 12:48 PM

"Did they not do this with Alberto as well?"

That is the nature of these things.. persistence in a dynamical environment will lead to changes which could manifest in development.

I see a SW'rly component to the circulation on the vislble which would indicate a broad surface low, but there is still upper shear which will impede rapid development...I think 2/10 on intensification.

--------------------
doug


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: slight change of tone [Re: Bill-n-StPeteFL]
      #67179 - Thu Jun 22 2006 12:50 PM

Quote:

"the NHC verdict on the system has changed just a little bit. the latest twd posted illustrates part of this, while the possible investigation mentioned off the east coast of florida for saturday afternoon in the recon plan takes care of the rest. the tone is now gone from "probably nothing" to "possibly something".

Did they not do this with Alberto as well?




You can't really go by past storms in this regard. The NHC is going to be super-conscious of media and public scrutiny of their discussions and forecasts. Unless/until something develops, we can only take each day as it comes. If something starts to "bloom," then it's 12 hours. If something develops for sure, it's every 6 hours watching.

I decided that this year, I refuse to stress about it, I can't spend 6 months of my year obsessing over what's going to happen. That's why I'm trying to educate myself and learn the "science" end of it. And it's why I'm actively decluttering my house, so that if I have to evacuate, I know I've got everything I need to save and the rest, well, I've got insurance. (I think. As long as Citizens doesn't screw up now that Poe's in receivership!)

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: slight change of tone [Re: madmumbler]
      #67180 - Thu Jun 22 2006 01:08 PM

Rain... yeah we got 3 inches and it wasnt worth a darn. Fires are still everywhere and we are right back where we were a month ago as far as rain deficit goes.
As for the NHC they are overcautious this year more than usual so we have to keep checking in every day to see whats up.
As far as the idea that the more you know the less you freak... I wouldnt necessarily say that is so, at least not with me. The more I know the more i check out sites and learn even more and try to figure out whats going on. I watch this stuff 10 times more than I did 2 years ago.

I'll say one thing, I really dont like the 12Z CMC. I know we often discount that model cuz it invariably overdoes everything but it was pretty good from the beginning with Alberto so I am checking it regularly lately.


--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Bahama Disturbance [Re: NewWatcher]
      #67182 - Thu Jun 22 2006 01:21 PM

Just wanted to throw this out there.. I think we will see a similiarity (note..I only see one) in this disturbance just like we saw with Alberto before it ever became a TD or TS

I think this wave does look a little more impressive on Satellite right now than it has since we started watching this. That being said, Alberto during the day looked like something would come of it, then die out overnight. Forecasters/Meteorolgists/posters on this board would write it off "looks bad now." Then 12 hours later, we'd see a better organized storm. I think we'll go through this for a day or two with this area of interest.

This morning's disucssion from the NHC caught me a little off guard this morning. And not that I haven't been giving this storm the attention it deserves..but I will say now that I am watching this much closer now...

Also, 12Z model runs are in better agreement this time....hmmmm

Edited by ElizabethH (Thu Jun 22 2006 01:23 PM)


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john2
Unregistered




Re: Bahama Disturbance [Re: ElizabethH]
      #67183 - Thu Jun 22 2006 01:43 PM

I agree with you Elizabeth, don't think this area will become more than a TD as moves to the NW , by then be to close to land.

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