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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 83 (Nicholas) , Major: 99 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1153 (Michael) Major: 1153 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: you said this the other day HF [Re: LoisCane]
      #67208 - Thu Jun 22 2006 08:55 PM

One point to keep in mind...

Just because upper level conditions aren't very conducive for a tropical cyclone to form doesn't necessarily mean that a non-tropical or hybrid type cyclone can't form, if that shear is divergent, and lowers surface pressures via dynamically forced ascent.


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: TAFB and the ECMWF [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #67209 - Thu Jun 22 2006 09:09 PM

Honesty, I have never compared these two products until now but I noticed the TAFB surface forecasts (24, 48 & 72 hr) looks a lot like the ECMWF run I had metioned a little back... just caught my eye... not sure if thoes guys use that model in their forecasts or not....

TAFB stuff:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb-atl.shtml

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu Jun 22 2006 09:21 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: little things that matter [Re: HanKFranK]
      #67210 - Thu Jun 22 2006 09:13 PM

Not a whole lot of time, but wanted to check in with some comments. Mostly, it's an amalgam of what HF has mentioned over the past day or so. Entirely concur with the "little things" detailed in the post I'm replying to. I am not very bullish on this system developing, however. I see a persistent upper-low that shows no signs of weakening or moving out of the picture. With most of last year's developments, we saw the upper lows weaken and move out of the way. It's helping to create a favorable divergent environment to the NE of the upper low, as Tony mentioned, but most of the lower level energy is focused further west. Stuck between two ridges with an overall blocky pattern, the upper low is going to have a tough time shearing out of getting out of the way.

Models are in good agreement on the entire complex slowly moving toward Florida and then hooking a hard right up the coast. The most likely scenario, in my view, is the one outlined by HF a day or so ago -- that of a weak low developing as the system scoots up the coast toward the mid-Atlantic, much like an unclassified feature late last June. If this were August, it might have a better shot of getting going. Alas, however, it's June, and the pattern isn't all that condusive to development. Not out of the realm of possibility, but still think it's more of a rainmaker more than anything else.

Despite Alberto, many areas haven't seen a whole lot of rain since then -- here in Tallahassee, the airport saw it's first recorded rainfall since the storm made landfall, but most parts of town missed out -- so much of the region could use more rain. We're still ~10" in the hole for the year, at least here in the Panhandle. I'm sure the peninsula isn't that much better off.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: TAFB and the ECMWF [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #67211 - Thu Jun 22 2006 09:15 PM

TAFB will use a lot of the NCEP suite of numerical guidance (WaveWatch III, GFS, etc.) along with whatever else is available to make their forecasts. Also, their work is some of that in which human forecasters can add a lot of value to the forecasts, so you see a lot of that influence in there at times. The ECMWF has, on and off, been one of the better models globally, so I wouldn't be surprised if some of its results made it into their forecasts.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu Jun 22 2006 09:32 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Roundup [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #67212 - Thu Jun 22 2006 09:33 PM

This thread looks more like a pre-flight briefing for the next three days!
I can't get this much information from TV or wire services.

Clark, HF, and Tony have all given the system somewhat of a thumbs down on Tropical development.
As was mentioned. Hybrid, or sub-tropical development may occur.

I've just finished reading the afternoon and evening Area Forecast DIscussions from all of the FL Penisula offices, except Key West.
At this time, none are mentioning anything above a "possible" surface Low developing. Most of them appeared to be going out on a limb in mentioning development to that level. I'm not speaking for them. These are just my interpretations of the AFDs.

I've also checked the Discussions from the Hydrological Prediction Center and NCEP.
They are of the same consensus. Basically, little to no chance for Tropical development.

As stated above that does not rule in, or rule out, sub-tropical development.


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Bahamas stuff [Re: Clark]
      #67217 - Thu Jun 22 2006 10:45 PM

Clark...I agree with most of what you have said. I do not believe a tropical storm can come from this. Nor did I believe that Katrina could have formed from what she did either....basically in the same area. So, what do I know?
I do know that it is still only June and a Katrina won't happen this month. I do however agree that a rain situation is on the way for parched areas of Florida that had no benefit from Alberto.
I am on the east coast of FL in Stuart at 27.16N...80.2W. Skies are mostly clear, wind has increased from calm to about 15mph steady out of the SSE with a 1015mb reading right now. Expecting a mostly southerly wind tomorrow.
And the really weird part is I just spoke with a friend in Palm Beach County...not 25 miles south of my location and he has winds out of the NE.


Edited by Randrew (Thu Jun 22 2006 11:01 PM)


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john2
Unregistered




Re: Bahamas stuff [Re: Randrew]
      #67221 - Thu Jun 22 2006 11:28 PM

I don't think must of a system will comeout of this MLC, The models long range are showing something in the Western Gulf in 8 to 9 days, that maybe a problem

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reedzone
Unregistered




Tropical Storm Beryl in the making and more... [Re: john2]
      #67223 - Fri Jun 23 2006 12:28 AM

Starting to find a low level circulation. Beryl may just be on the way folks. I believe that it will become TD2 in 24-48 hours. The NHC will probably put up an area of interest by the 00 model run. Interesting to see what the GFDL model picks up on this. Looking at this reminds me of Alberto. This ugly looking thing may become a organized storm. Imagine it's August or September, cat. 2 or 3 Hurricane Beryl would be the case! You just never know. After a year like last year you just will never know what will happen these days. I believe 20 or more storms will be the number of storms this year. They predicted the same amount of storms that was predicted this year last year and look what happened. So much early signs of African waves. You just never know. Just remember, we learned from last year that you can't always depends on the models. Think about it. Keep watching what should be the new " Area of Interest "

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Bahamas stuff [Re: john2]
      #67224 - Fri Jun 23 2006 12:36 AM

i'm leaning a bit more on it doing something, as far as developing. of course, all the low level stuff can get blown out ahead of the convective area and the whole thing can collapse. think it'll keep digging and grinding away, though, while the upper air pattern slowly bends around into something that starts helping it more than hurting it.
right now it actually looks a bit worse for the wear. on the ir2 you can see that the good looking low level vortmax from earlier is detached and blowing out. the idea about it developing tomorrow, though, leaned on the feature from earlier today holding together. doesn't look like that panned out.
might start trying to consolidate a little further north, perhaps. convection seems to be refiring there, as it has much of the day.
like tony says, this isn't a purely tropical-origin system. development in the subtropics rarely is... and most of it early in the season tends to happen closer to the middle-latitudes.
impressive wave moving over central america. the eastpac has been quiet... some models pointing to this being the next thing over there. actually, the entire pacific has been quiet. might mean the atlantic will be doing most of the production this year.
SOI has pulsed negative again, like it has earlier this month. there is a strong possibility of pattern forced development in the near future. climatological norms and the forecast synoptic pattern will most likely cause any development to be close in to the united states.
HF 0536z23june


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Re: Bahamas stuff [Re: HanKFranK]
      #67225 - Fri Jun 23 2006 12:53 AM

HF...You are right that this system is developing and it is not a truly "tropical" thing. So now what do we call it? During hurricane season....in the tropical Atlantic? I can't hear about another hybrid system.
The center of circulation is just east of Great Abaco and if projected track is correct then I will most likely be the one to tell you all about it.....if this rainy area should decide to move my way.
My winds have shifted now to the NE at 15mph with gusts. No rain in sight yet...but one can hope!
it isn't frontally associated so it'll get tropical or subtropical designation. if it has an expansive windfield and no CDO probably subtropical. otherwise tropical. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Jun 23 2006 01:16 PM)


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reedzone
Unregistered




I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! [Re: MikeC]
      #67226 - Fri Jun 23 2006 02:03 AM

It's happening already. Upper level winds are now dying down and Beryl is now developing. I see a newly formed closed low level circulation and convection is really now starting to burst east and northeast of the circulation. WOW!! This may happen to be like Alberto. I think it will become a deppression tommorrow by the way it's looking right now. Look how the convection just starts to burst out. Tommorrow mornings image will be very interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! [Re: reedzone]
      #67227 - Fri Jun 23 2006 02:12 AM

Just need to thank you for the rainbow float. Definitely a flare going on right now. How about by 11AM?
I think so.


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reedzone
Unregistered




Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! [Re: Randrew]
      #67228 - Fri Jun 23 2006 02:14 AM

deffinatly! You know how all the time these so called weak systems flare up big time overnight and here we go tonight! I think Beryl is finally on the first stage of development.

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 459
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! [Re: reedzone]
      #67229 - Fri Jun 23 2006 05:28 AM

Not sure what you're seeing at this point, the system is rotating around an upper level low oh... 26N 73W or so, There are little low level ... vorticies one at 27N 76W and another at 30N 77W, neither of which have any convection. Now if there's a LLC hidden near the convection, it might... *might* spin up a bit, however the organization is still horrible.

I'd said last night that it had a one in three shot of developing (maybe even as high as 40 percent) in 48 hours. but as HF mentioned above, the LLC centers aren't holding convection. Right now i'd put development chances at zero. There are just too many things pulling against it in the near term. after 36 hours, i'd give it a shot if it can maintain convection. But we'll see.

At this point I'm not holding my breath. (which will promptly mean it'll fire up and become a TD in the next 12 hours with the way my predictions go

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! [Re: Bloodstar]
      #67230 - Fri Jun 23 2006 06:42 AM

You are absolutely correct! I expect in way less than 12 hours. But who the heck knows anymore.
Here's what Avila says this morning:
THE BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

I respect Avila...but this is not going anywhere with him. Then 6 hours from now it will all change!
View: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

We need the rain here. Won't be much more than that. But please bring it!


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Bahamian Showers [Re: Randrew]
      #67231 - Fri Jun 23 2006 07:12 AM

I know Avila is monitoring this board. So, if you wouldn't mind....please just blast the forecast you have hidden inside...please!

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! [Re: Randrew]
      #67232 - Fri Jun 23 2006 07:14 AM

Ok, first light visible imagery is out, and it shows we still have a very disorganised system with multiple low level swirls. One is located just east of Great Abaco, and another is located due north of Great Abaco. Neither of these has any significant convection associated with it. Rather, the deep convection remains well to the east of borth low-level swirls. Not convinced anything will happen today at least, not unless we see some serious organisation.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! [Re: Rich B]
      #67233 - Fri Jun 23 2006 07:21 AM

I know. Sad that these systems can develop like this. Even without accurate met forecasting. Watch and see by 11AM Saturday.

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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! [Re: Rich B]
      #67234 - Fri Jun 23 2006 07:34 AM

Unofruntately, I don't think intensification and organization is out of the question. Even though things aren't all that impressive right now, a change could come quicker than forecasted... This afternoon will give us a better idea if this wave could become a TD or not... ( I lean more towards a TD at some point before Sat PM)....

Edited to add... 0z models-just about all of them do bring a closed low across FL but different landfall locations.. ranging from Ft. Lauderdale area to Melbourne...

Edited by ElizabethH (Fri Jun 23 2006 07:47 AM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! [Re: ElizabethH]
      #67235 - Fri Jun 23 2006 08:03 AM

I'm still not impressed by what I'm seeing on sat and radar. It might intensify to a TD, but I have the feeling it's going to be hanging onto that distinction (if it makes it there) for dear life. It just looks too disorganized with the shear.

Now, if the shear drops off dramatically, sure, it's got a much better chance. I just think it's too early in the season. And it looks like where it's at, the SSTs start dropping off a little, so it's not going to have the fuel it would have if it was a GOM storm like Alberto was. As it drifts further west it gets a little warmer, but....who knows.

I just really think from what I'm seeing that it's got a much better chance of being a welcomed rainmaker than it does of being a BU (boarder-upper. )

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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