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News Talkback >> 2006 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - East of Hawaii
      #68345 - Mon Jul 24 2006 10:31 AM

Hurricane Daniel has now moved west of 140W longitude and into the Central Pacific, so future bulletins on this storm will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center - CPHC - starting with the next bulletin at 24/15Z.

Daniel is expected to slowly weaken as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Thursday, however, the storm is expected to maintain tropical storm strength as it passes through the Islands on Thursday and Friday.

Daniel is currently located well over a thousand miles to the east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and he is moving to the west northwest toward the Islands. A weak portion of the east Pacific ridge is expected to keep Daniel on a track toward the Islands. Southwesterly shear to the west of the Islands is expected to decrease as Daniel approaches. Daniel is currently moving over SSTs near 27C but these sea surface temperatures will decrease to about 25C over the next couple of days so Daniel should weaken to tropical storm intensity. As Daniel approaches the Islands, the SSTs rise slightly again to near 27C. The long-term forecast has Daniel passing along or just north of the north shore of the Big Island of Hawaii, south of Maui, but very near Lanai, and over or just south of Oahu, Kauai and Niihau - still as a tropical storm (although probably a weak one).

On its projected path, heavy rain squalls could be expected on Thursday and Friday, along with high surf along the south beaches of the islands west of the Big Isle. On Oahu, high surf later in the week from 10 to 15 feet (or more) from Diamond Head to Barber's Point (including Waikiki Beach and Ala Moana Beach).

While uncommon, tropical cyclones do hit Hawaii on occasion (Hawaii has experienced two Category IV hurricanes). Usually tropical cyclones threaten Hawaii later in the season (Oct-Nov timeframe) so this one is a bit unusual. As noted earlier on the Main Page, while CFHC has Atlantic Basin storms as its primary interest, we do make an exception whenever a tropical system threatens Hawaii.

Daniel is still a long way from Hawaii, however, his progress is certainly something to watch during the week. I wouldn't cancel any travel plans to Hawaii based on the storm - at least not yet.
ED

Links

Daniel Floater
Satellite Images
Central Pacific Hurricane Center


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Area of Interest - East of Hawaii [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #68454 - Wed Jul 26 2006 04:54 PM

tropical swirl daniel would need a miracle to cause more than a breeze and a couple of showers on hawaii. those american models predicting it to stop dead were right, somehow. NHC didn't buy it and i didn't either.. will make an interesting read as to what happened in the post analysis.
HF 2054z26july


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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
swirl [Re: HanKFranK]
      #68485 - Thu Jul 27 2006 05:57 PM

there's just a tad of convection on the daniel remnant that has been hanging for the last day or so. that stuff increases and they may need to re-initiate advisories. SSTs on it's track go back to support threshold fairly soon.
HF 2156z27july

hello, central pacific hurricane center: daniel regenerating. reinitiate advisories, as tropical storm conditions may be possible in the hawaiian islands july 28-29. end. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Jul 28 2006 01:10 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2184
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: swirl [Re: HanKFranK]
      #68504 - Fri Jul 28 2006 03:21 AM

You know, no joke. Honestly, Daniel is doing just about exactly what I expected him to do (fall apart to a weak depression or even remnant low, and then hit those higher SSTs and potentially lower shear within a day or two of Hawaii and regenerate.)

Now, maybe I'm being a little mongeristic, but .. nahhhh

I see they are forecasting surface winds of 6MPH on the Big Island, and 31MPH at 13,000 feet.

Going out on a limb, they are.

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Edited by cieldumort (Fri Jul 28 2006 03:22 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: swirl [Re: cieldumort]
      #68521 - Sat Jul 29 2006 12:13 AM

well, that was definitely wrong. daniel's remnant is back to a swirl after passing just by southeastern hawaii.
HF 0413z29july


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